ENERGY: SUPPLY AND DEMAND Dr. Ron Lembke
Dec 28, 2015
ENERGY: SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Dr. Ron Lembke
US Energy “Sankey” Diagram
Hot, Flat, and Crowded
Hot: Climate Change Flat: Technology and
Bandwidth Crowded: More people,
who want to live like us
THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY
International Energy Outlook, 2011, US Energy Information Admistration, eia.gov
EIA Demand Scenarios
http://www.eia.gov/conf_pdfs/Monday/Sweetnam_eia.pdf
THE SUPPLY OF ENERGY
Hubbert’s Peak
• M. King Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels” (Drilling and Production Practices, American Petroleum Institute, Washington, DC, 1956),
Causality or Correlation?
When is the Peak? 2004 data
Different Scenarios
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=38&t=6
Fracking
EPA: 2-4 million gallons per well = 200 to 400 tanker trucks of water
Where Does it Come From?
Where does our oil come from?
US Oil Imports, US EIA
Canada; 24.2%
Mexico; 12.2%
Saudi Arabia; 10.5%
Venezuela; 9.5%
Nigeria; 9.8%
Algeria; 4.9%
Russia; 6.0%
Colombia; 3.6%
Iraq; 4.0%
Angola; 3.8%
Virgin Is-lands; 2.5%
Brazil; 2.6% Ecuador; 1.9% UK; 2.5% Kuwait; 2.0%
Proven Oil Reserves, CIA Factbook ~2009
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50,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
150,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
250,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
Oil Reserves, Billions of barrels
Data, US EIA, 1/29/2015
Reserves, Production, years left
Data: EIA, 1/29/2015
Strip mine for bitumen, a sandy oil solid Liquefy with steam and caustic
soda NaOH Slurry is pumped, 2 tons of sand for 1 barrel (1/8
ton) of oil 90% recovery with centrifuges 17% more GHG than regular oil
production Phases 3 & 4: “Keystone XL”
Phase 4 goes over Ogallala Aquifer Drinking water for 2m people $20b agriculture
830,000 barrels per day Crosses earthquake zones
Tar Sands
1. June, 20102. Feb, 2011
Keystone XL
36” diameter 910mm up to 830,000 barrels per
day Phase III – 700,000 bpd
US production 12,500,000 barrels per day
Tar Sands
Photo: Forbes
4b barrels
410T cu.ft
15b barrels
32T cu.ft
3,000 b barrels?
Government Accountability Office and private industry Seems to be consensus that there is that much oil there
1 trillion barrels total human consumption so far GAO: Commercial development at least 15-20years
away May require huge amounts of water
They may get one barrel of water with every barrel of oil Traditional fracking won’t do it
Oil tightly bound to the rock – heat to FIVE THOUSAND DEGREES
“In situ”: send a heater down below Cost $65 per barrel
Green river formation 3,000 BILLION Barrels?!?
The Price of energy
Gas Prices 1990-2012
1990
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Data: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm
Price of Liquids
Liquid Price ounces $/gallon $/cupWine $20 25.4 100.79$ 6.3 Coffee $1.90 12 20.27$ 1.3 Coors Light $0.75 12 8.00$ 0.5 Big Gulp $1.75 32 7.00$ 0.4 milk $3.50 128 3.50$ 0.2 Gasoline $4.50 128 4.50$ 0.3 Light Sweet Crude $100 5,376 2.38$ 0.1
EIA Predicted Price of Crude Oil, 2011
Death Valley, April 2012
NV Electricity Prices
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1989-2009 prices
LR on 20yrs Data
LR on 10yrs Data
Cen
ts /
kw
h
R2 = 0.907
R2 = 0.938
Elect. Price Data: EIA, 20y Rsq=0.91, 10y Rsq=0.94
US Coal Reserves
http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves
http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves
Pinion Pine Power Plant DOE Clean Coal
Air-blown Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
$335.9m, half DOE, half SPP New gasification method New desulfurization method
Carbon Capture & Sequestration Porous rock formations Small scale tests Expensive – lose 30% of electricity
gained So make more electricity – It’s CARBON
FREE! There are other pollutants
What if it gets out? Natural gas stays safely underground
Solar Resources
Feb-
01
Sep-
01
Apr-0
2
Nov-0
2
Jun-
03
Jan-
04
Aug-
04
Mar
-05
Oct-0
5
May
-06
Dec-0
6
Jul-0
7
Feb-
08
Sep-
08
Apr-0
9
Nov-0
9
Jun-
10
Jan-
11
Aug-
11
Mar
-12
Oct-1
2
May
-13
Dec-1
30
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Residential Electricity Cents/kwh
Nevada California
Geothermal Resources
Wind Resources
Renewables’ Share growing
US Energy Sources
Summary
Demand for energy is going to increase significantly Growing populations Rising standards of living
Supply of energy not increasing as fast Global oil supplies are finite Peak oil is likely coming in next 40 years Alternative energy sources
,
Feb 2, 1962 ad in Life magazine Humble merged with Standard to become Exxon