Energy studies at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Energy studies at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Presentation at the EPS/SIF Energy Meeting

EPS energy working groups

Varenna April 7, 2008Sven Kullander

[email protected]

.

• The Academy and its Energy Committee• Running out of oil• Nuclear energy development with a focus on risks • Biomass potential                                                      

          ­Forest potential                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ­Agriculture potential

• Solar energy• Conclusions

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

•Promotes the sciences and in particular natural

science

•Awards a number of different prizes

– Most prestigious are the Nobel prizes in physics and

Chemistry, the Economy prize in memory of Alfred Nobel

and the Crafoord prize

•Strengthens science in Society by means of

committees on

– Energy, Environment, Health, School and Science policy

Energy Committee’s agenda

How long will our present sources of energy last and which ones

should we focus on in the future? What effects does energy

consumption have on our environment and on our economy?

These questions are addressed in a global perspective extending

50 years ahead in time.

A number of projects of special weight are selected for providing

a basis for the analysis. A symposium presenting conclusions of

the Committee’s work is planned as an associated item during

the Swedish Presidency of the EU in October 2009.

Energy Committee Members

• Sven Kullander, Professor High Energy Physics, Uppsala University

(Chairman)

• Gia Destouni, Professor Technical Hydrology, Stockholm University

• Harry Frank, Professor Innovation Technology, Mälardalens högskola

• Karl Fredga, Professor Genetics, Uppsala University

• Bertil Fredholm, Professor Pharmacology, Karolinska Institutet

• Karl Grandin, Deputy Director, Centre for Science History

• Peter Jagers, Professor Mathematical Statistics, Chalmers Institute of

Technology

• Bengt Kasemo, Professor Physics, Chalmers Institute of Technology

• Rickard Lundin, Professor Space Physics, Institute for Space Physics,

Kiruna

• Karl-Göran Mäler, Professor Economy, Beijer Institute for Ecological

Economy

• Kerstin Niblaeus, Director General, Council of the European Union

• Bengt Nordén, Professor Physical Chemistry, Chalmers Institute of

Technology

(Representatives from all the science fields of the Academy)

Energy Committe’s projects

• 1. Running out of oil? Terminated

• 2. Nuclear energy development with a focus on risks. Terminated.

• 3. The Greenhouse effect and climate change. Terminated.

• 4. Book ENERGI – MÖJLIGHETER OCH DILEMMAN. Published in collaboration with IVA.

• 5. Nuclear fusion. Terminated.

• 6. Biomass potential. Terminated.

• 7a. Solar energy. In progress.

• 7b. New renewables (Artificial photosynthesis, wind etc). In progress.

• 8. Hydropower and water in society. In progress.

• 9. A European Electricity Power Grid. An EASAC project. In progress.

• 10. Threats to production and use of energy. In progress.

• 11. Energy statistics reliability. In progress.

• 12. Transports.

• 13. Electricity markets and scenarios for future prices.

• 14. Storage and regulation of energy.

• 15. Efficiency in production and use of energy.

• 16. Energy sources as threats to our health.

• 17. CO2 sequestration. In progress.

Swedish use of energy in 2005

020406080

100120140160180200

Värme El Drivmedel

Bio Fossil Kärnkraft Vattenkraft

TWh

172148

96

Heat Electricity Fuel

Nuclear Hydro

From Harry Frank

Running out of oil

Nine statements on oil

Main message is:

We are running out of time!

See www.kva.se

Giant Oil Fields High CaseCourtesyPresident of 

ASPOKjell Aleklett

Production and price evolution

Where are the fossil reserves?

Uppsala Hydrocarbon Group

Coal Production of China

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Prod

uctio

n [M

t]

Production Exponential Growth

Future World Coal Production

Source: Höök et al, 2008

Nuclear energy development with a focus on risks

Six statements on nuclear-fission energy

The main message is:

Research is recommended on emerging reactor

systems

See www.kva.se

NUCLEAR FLEET IS RETIRING

DEVELOPMENT IS TIME- CONSUMING

III generation reactor i OlkiluotoPressurized reactor north of Åbo operational 2012

1500 GWe

5,6: 2-wall reactor containment

1: Reactor vessel

2: Steam generator

3: Pressurizer

4: Pumps

10: Generator hall

Location % thorium

Megatonnes

Stokkøy/Arøy, Vestfold 0.2 ?Sæteråsen, Vestfold 0.05 8Høgtuva, Nordland 0.02 0.5 (+)Ødegården, Aust Agder 0.1 ?Ytterøya,Nord­Trøndelag 0.2 ?Fen (iron ore)Telemark 0.2 ­ 0.4 ?Fen (iron rich) Telemark 0.1 ­ 0.2 A lot

Thorium resources in Norway

TelemarkVestfold

Thorium resources in two km large areasSouth of Norsiö in Telemark (up to 0,4%)

THORIUM IN NORWAY

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

Tonnes

Aus

tral

ia

Indi

a

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Nor

way

Can

ada

Oth

erco

untr

ies

Sou

thA

fric

a

Bra

zil

Mal

aysi

a

World Thorium Reserves and Reserve Base (Resources)

Reserve Base

Reserves0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

Tonnes

Aus

tral

ia

Indi

a

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Nor

way

Can

ada

Oth

erco

untr

ies

Sou

thA

fric

a

Bra

zil

Mal

aysi

a

World Thorium Reserves and Reserve Base (Resources)

Reserve Base

Reserves

US Geological Survey claims that:• Norway has one of the major 

thorium reserves in the world.

The Geological Survey of Norway:• Thorium has never been 

specifically explored for• Fen Complex most promising• Low concentration 0.1 – 0.4 wt%• Grain size too small for the 

traditional flotation processes• Norway has a potential resource• More investigations necessary to 

define as a reserve 

Gen IV Molten Salt Reactor

Characteristics•Th-232+U-233 in molten salts

•Thermal neutrons•Closed fuel cycle•700–800 °C temperature out

•Recycling of actinides•1000 MWe

Great advantage• Fuel development avoided

Biomass potential

Energy Committee’s statements on bioenergy

November 28, 2007

•World’s agricultural products must meet the increasing demands

for food rather than being used for biofuels.

•World’s forestry products must not exceed the growth in order

not to jeopardize biodiversity and climate.

•It should be possible to double the global bioenergy production,

currently 13 000 TWh per year, primarily by using residues from

agriculture and forestry.

•The Swedish annual bioenergy production being now 100 TWh

may be increased by 40 %.

World´s forestsSource UN­FAO

•4× 109 hectars of forests (30% of surface)

•7.3 × 106 hectars disappearing each year

•In Africa 90% of all wood produced is

burnt

•75% of bioenergy come from forests

•Bioenergy represent 80% of all

renewable energy

Nordic forests

* USA+Canada       44× 109 m3

* European Union  13× 109 m3

Sweden Norway Finland Denmark

Forest portion of land 50% 20% 68% 10%

Forest stock (5× 109 m3)* 50% 13% 36% 1%

Growth/year (180× 106

m3)

47% 12% 40% 2%

Nordic land areas

Sweden Norway Finland Denmark

EU-25

Aral land (Mha) 2.7 0.87 2.23 2.84

178

Forests (Mha) 23.0 7.03 20.3

0.51 137

Forest biomass yield, Sweden, 2004

Per-Olov Nilsson, Report 23, 2006, Skogsstyrelsen

34%

21%

19%

75.9 Mt → 380TWh

26 %

Global agriculture products in 2005Food and Agriculture Statistics Global Oulook

•Cereals 2,228 million tonnes

•Meat 265 million tonnes

•Fruits/Vegetables 1,392 million tonnes

•Roots/Tubers 712 million tonnes

•Pulses 62 million tonnes

•Oilseeds/Nuts 146 million tonnes

•Sugar Crops 1,532 million tonnes

•Tobacco 7 million tonnes

•Fibre Crops 29 million tonnes

Σ= 6,4 milliards tonnes

  ∼  1 ton/capita

Energy content of agriculture products

 Cereals   33,4 EJ

Fruits & Vegetables  2,8 EJ

Roots & Tubers  2,7 EJ

Pulses  0,8 EJ

Oilseeds & Nuts  10,2 EJ

Sugar Crops   6,6 EJ

Tobacco  0,1 EJ

Fibre Crops  0,4 EJ

Σ  57,0 EJ → 16 000 TWh

Energy values 2005

Fossil energy production = 100 000

TWh

All agriculture products = 16 000

TWh

Food for 6.6 milliard people ≅ 6 000

TWh*)

*) 2.5 kWh/day x 365 x 6.6 x 109 = 6 000 TWh

Brazil’s potential*

*) From the presentation by Prof. Donato Aranda, Federal Univ. Rio de

Janeiro

at the seminar Future of Forest Bioenergy, Royal Swedish Engineering

Academy of

Sciences, Stockholm, 2007

From Donato Aranda

Raw Material Production / ha (kg)

Quantity of Product / liter

of EthanolQuantity of Ethanol / ha

SUGAR CANE 85,000 12 kg 7,080 liter

CORN 10,000 2.8 kg 3,570 liter

Source: Brazilian Agricultural Ministry

Physical ProductivityPhysical Productivity

Sugar Cane Output/Input Energy ~ 8.2*

Ethanol production in 2006: 16 billion liters

*Goldenberg, J.L.C Renewable Energies, Island Press, 1993

Soybean Biodiesel (Output/input energy ~ 3)*

* NREL (USA) http://www.nrel.gov/docs/legosti/fy98/24089.pdf

Solar energy

A master thesis work at Chalmers University of Technology on

Alternative

Solar Power Technologies was published May 2007 by Erik Pihl,

Joanna

Wiberg and Erik Nilsson and their conclusions is that Concentrating

Solar

Power facilities in the South is one of the most interesting options.

Alternativa solkraftsystem

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)

1. Concentrating solar radiation a factor 25-3000

2. Radiation converted to heat in a receiver

3. Heat carrying medium brings heat from the receiver to the power cycle. Possibilities for heat storage.

Alternativa solkraftsystem

Three main concepts

Alternativ solkraftsystem

Power Tower in Spain

← CESA-1 Power Tower demonstratio

n plant at PSA

(Plataforma Solar de

Almeria),.

Alternativa solkraftsystem

Principle

’Parabolic trough’

Parabolic troughs

1D sun tracing

Concentrating on tubes

Central electricity production

Mineral oil, steam or molten salt as a medium

Alternativa solkraftsystem

PrincipleParabolic Dish

Parabola and motor in one unit

Follows the sun

Variations

Stirling motor or micro-gas turbine,

Possibility central steam

CSP in Sahara

Symposium on Solar PowerRoyal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm 5 May 2008

Si Photovoltaics Technology, W. Hoffmann, Solar Business Group, Applied Materials

GmbH

Silicon Technology versus Thin Film Technology , F. Holzapfel, Q-Cells AG, Thalheim

CIGS Thin Film Technology, Marika Edoff, PV Research Team, Ångström Solar Center

External Costs for Solar Electricity, P. Preiss, Institut für Energiewirtschaft, Stuttgart

University

The CSP DESERTEC Project in Middle East and North Africa, G. Knies, Hamburg

Solar Energy in the Swedish Energy System, B. Karlsson, Lund University

Solar Electricity for Buildings, B. Stridh, ABB Corporate Research, Västerås

Solar Energy – The Power Industry´s view, J. Asmussen, Vattenfall, Sweden

Conclusions

•1. Sweden currently has a gold-plated energy mix with 27%

renewables.

•2. EU:s challenge is to increase its renewables from 7 to 20% by

2020.

•3. New bioenergy should come only from forestry and agriculture

residues.

•4. Concentrated-Solar-Power devices will give a steady electricity

supply.

•5. Nuclear energy is very sustainable even compared with the

renewables!

• 6. Nuclear energy is essential for reducingCO2 emissions by

20-30 %.