Energy Strategy for Worcestershire Stakeholder Engagement Events 3 July 2018 Worcester Bosch 16 July 2018 Wychavon District Council 19 July 2018 EnviRecover EfW Plant
Energy Strategy for Worcestershire
Stakeholder Engagement Events
3 July 2018 Worcester Bosch
16 July 2018 Wychavon District Council
19 July 2018 EnviRecover EfW Plant
Welcome
• Context Setting
• Current Status / Evidence Base / Future Plans
• Opportunity to Shape Strategic Direction
• Next Steps
WLEP Vision and Objectives
To build a connected, creative, dynamic economythat delivers increased prosperity for all those who
choose to live, work, visit and invest in Worcestershire
Strategic Economic Plan (by 2025):
• To create 25,000 jobs
• Increase GVA by £2.9bn; and
• Contribute towards the delivery of 21,500 new homes
National Policy Context
National Policy ContextIndustrial Strategy
• Sets out five foundations of productivity
• Commits to investment in business-led innovation
• Aims to maximise the advantages for UK industry from the global shift to clean growth
• Commits to Local Industrial Strategies that build on local strengths and deliver on economic opportunities
Clean Growth Strategy
• Sets out a strategy to meet the UK’s Carbon budgets
• Since 1990 emissions have been cut by 42%
• UK has committed to an 80% reduction on 1990 levels by 2050
• The document sets out domestic policies to keep the UK on track to meet these targets
Local Impact• The energy system is changing rapidly, as the UK
shifts towards a lower carbon energy mix and local generation contributions increase
• Worcestershire LEP needs to be prepared for these changes and understand the impact they could have, particularly on local economic growth
• Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) have awarded funding to each LEP to develop a local Energy Strategy
Worcestershire Energy Strategy
Our Worcestershire Energy Strategy sets out to identify:
– How energy is currently consumed and generated
– What the associated carbon emissions are
– How this is likely to change in future
– What the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within Worcestershire are, due to these changes
Key aim is to identify local power, heat and transport opportunities and to take forward a strong pipeline of low
carbon projects
Timeline• April – BEIS award funding to WLEP
• May – WLEP and WCC commissioned Encraft and Sustainability West Midlands to support strategy development
• May / June – Project inception and evidence gathering
• July – Initial findings / stakeholder engagement sessions
• July / August – Development of strategy and implementation plan
• September – LEP Board to receive presentation on emerging draft
• November – Final Energy Strategy delivered and launched
• Autumn 2018 – Local Industrial Strategy development
Regional Energy Hubs• Stream of work being run by BEIS in parallel – development
of Regional Energy Hubs
• East/West Mids Hub will be based in Nottinghamshire and covers 9 LEP areas:
o Black Country LEP / Coventry and Warwickshire LEP / D2N2 LEP / Greater Birmingham and Solihull LEP / Greater Lincolnshire LEP / Leicester and Leicestershire LEP / Marches LEP / Stoke and Staffordshire LEP / Worcestershire LEP
• Hub will provide technical expertise and support to LEPs with our project pipelines across the region
Clean Growth Agenda
• Good examples of Worcestershire businesses already linked into clean growth agenda e.g.
oManik Ventures (HERU – EfW)
oMurcott Energy (The Murb – urban wind turbine)
o Indra (Energy storage and smart EV chargers –sell to grid model)
o Greengineering (Heat Recovery)
Key Headlines / Stats• WLEP well-placed (Fit for the Future II Report – Aug
‘17)
o 11th / 38 – climate mitigation / carbon reduction
o 14th / 38 – low carbon economy
• Key challenges for Worcestershire include:
o Levels of fuel poverty across the county
o National Grid capacity – presents issues for installing renewable energy generation and EV charging / makes it more expensive to develop in some areas
o Harnessing renewable energy opportunities in county e.g. Geothermal heat networks
EVIDENCE BASE
8%
22%
2%
10%
9%3%2%
44%
Domestic Electricity
Domestic Gas
Domestic Coal
Non DomesticElectricity
Non Domestic Gas
Non DomesticOther
Bioenergy andWaste
Road Transport
Energy.Energy consumption in Worcestershire by fuel
Energy.Energy consumption in Worcestershire by LA and fuel
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Bromsgrove Malvern Hills Redditch Worcester Wychavon Wyre Forest
Fu
el c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
GW
h)
Road Transport
Bioenergy and Waste
Non Domestic Other
Non Domestic Coal
Non Domestic Gas
Non Domestic Electricity
Domestic other
Domestic Coal
Domestic Gas
Domestic Electricity
Energy.Energy consumption in Worcestershire by LA and fuel
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Bromsgrove Malvern Hills Redditch Worcester Wychavon Wyre Forest
Fu
el c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
GW
h)
Road Transport
Bioenergy and Waste
Non Domestic Other
Non Domestic Coal
Non Domestic Gas
Non Domestic Electricity
Domestic other
Domestic Coal
Domestic Gas
Domestic Electricity
*Road transport data excludes energy consumption for motorway driving
Off-gas propertiesPercentage of off-gas properties in Worcestershire by LSOA
Areas of fuel povertyPercentage of homes in fuel poverty in Worcestershire
LA Name 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Bromsgrove 12.6 10.9 9.8 9.1 10.6 10.0
Malvern Hills 14.8 15.2 12.6 14.1 15.6 12.6
Redditch 9.8 10.4 9.7 9.0 10.5 10.6
Worcester 13.4 13.1 12.1 10.7 12.1 12.7
Wychavon 12.1 12.1 10.6 11.1 12.7 10.7
Wyre Forest 13.9 13.5 12.2 11.1 12.6 12.5
Worcestershire 12.7 12.5 11.2 10.8 12.3 11.5
Carbon.Carbon emissions in Worcestershire
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Bromsgrove Malvern Hills Redditch Worcester Wychavon Wyre Forest
Ca
rbo
n E
mis
sio
ns
(kT
CO
2)
Domestic
Industry and Commercial
Transport
Carbon.Carbon emissions in Worcestershire
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Bromsgrove Malvern Hills Redditch Worcester Wychavon Wyre Forest WorcestershireTotal
To
nn
es
CO
2/p
ers
on
Domestic Non-Domestic Transport England UK
Carbon.Domestic carbon emissions in Worcestershire
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Bromsgrove Malvern Hills Redditch Worcester Wychavon Wyre Forest
Do
me
sti
c t
on
ne
s C
O2
pe
r h
ou
se
ho
ld
Domestic Electricity Domestic Gas Domestic 'Other Fuels'
Carbon.Industrial carbon emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Bromsgrove Malvern Hills Redditch Worcester Wychavon Wyre Forest
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(M
tCO
2e
)
Industry and Commercial Electricity Industry and Commercial Gas Industrial and Commercial Other Fuels Agriculture
Carbon.Industrial carbon emissions
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Bromsgrove Malvern Hills Redditch Worcester Wychavon Wyre Forest WorcestershireTotal
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(T
on
ne
s C
O2
e/m
2)
Industry and Commercial Electricity Industry and Commercial Gas Large Industrial Installations
Industrial and Commercial Other Fuels Agriculture England Average
Carbon.Scenario carbon emissions
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2015
Ca
rbo
n E
mis
sio
ns
(kT
CO
2)
Domestic Predicted
Transport Predicted
Industry and Commercial Predicted
Agriculture Predicted
Change of land use Predicted
Domestic Actual
Transport Actual
Industry and Commercial Actual
Agriculture Actual
Change of land use Actual
Renewable energy.Large scale renewable generation
Data
EV Charge Point dataSpread of charge points in Worcestershire
Data
Grid capacity.Capacity for new electricity generation connections
Some areas have existing grid constraints making expansion of new development difficult
In other areas the DNO is unable to connect new large scale distributed generation without reinforcement
Grey indicates data not available
Grid capacity.Capacity for new electricity demand connections
Some areas have existing grid constraints making expansion of new development difficult
In other areas the DNO is unable to connect new large scale distributed generation without reinforcement
Grey indicates data not available
Grid capacity.Capacity for new electricity demand connections
Some areas have existing grid constraints making expansion of new development difficult
In other areas the DNO is unable to connect new large scale distributed generation without reinforcement
FUTURE ENERGYSCENARIOS
Future Energy Scenarios.Our energy system is changing
Our energy system has been changing rapidly and will continue to change. National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios (FES) have been used to project future energy consumption in Worcestershire
National Grid
Renewable generation is now 34% of peak capacity
New technologies such as Electric Vehicles will lead to additional demands on the electricity grid
The FES project energy demand and supply out to 2050
Two Degrees is the only scenario that meets the UK’s climate goals
Future Energy Scenarios.Our energy system is changing
Scenario differences include:
Take-up of Electric Vehicles
Change in domestic heating technologies
Renewable generation on the system
Change in nuclear generation output
Use of electricity interconnectors and storage
Policy focus on decarbonisation
The following slides summarise some of these differences
National Grid
National Electric Vehicle projectionsThere can be stark differences between the scenarios
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
ve
hic
les
Non EVs PHEV PEV
TwoDegrees
SteadyState
Almost all vehicles are electric in 2050
Only 20% of vehicles are electric or hybrid in 2050
Commercial electricity demands.
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
An
nu
al
co
mm
erc
ial e
lec
tric
ity d
em
an
d (
TW
h)
Two Degrees Steady State History
Cheap gas used in preference to electricity
Electrification of heating in greener economies
General growth in the Commercial sector over the period giving upward
demands
Industrial electricity demands.
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
An
nu
al
Ind
us
tria
l e
lec
tric
ity d
em
an
d (
TW
h)
Two Degrees Steady State History
Leaving the EU causes uncertainty for all scenarios over the next two to three years
Slowest of the economies
Growing economy and electrification of heating
Smart meters.What will be the impact of smart meters?
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pe
rce
nta
ge
ch
an
ge
to
re
sid
en
tia
l pe
ak
Two Degrees Steady State
Degree of savings based on take up rate of smart appliances and consumer engagement
Only Two Degrees meets the SMART meter rollout programme
Residential heating.Low carbon heating technology use
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mill
ion
s
Air Source Heat Pump Biomass
Fuel cell Gas heat pump
Ground Source Heat Pump Hybrid heat pump gas boiler
Micro-CHP
Two Degrees Steady State
Residential heating.Low carbon heating technology use
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mill
ion
s
Air Source Heat Pump Biomass
Fuel cell Gas heat pump
Ground Source Heat Pump Hybrid heat pump gas boiler
Micro-CHP
Two Degrees Steady State
Residential heating.Low carbon heating technology use
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mill
ion
s
Air Source Heat Pump Biomass
Fuel cell Gas heat pump
Ground Source Heat Pump Hybrid heat pump gas boiler
Micro-CHP
Two Degrees Steady State
Residential heating.Low carbon heating technology use
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mill
ion
s
Air Source Heat Pump Biomass
Fuel cell Gas heat pump
Ground Source Heat Pump Hybrid heat pump gas boiler
Micro-CHP
Two Degrees Steady State
Residential heating.Low carbon heating technology use
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mill
ion
s
Air Source Heat Pump Biomass Fuel cell
Gas heat pump Ground Source Heat Pump Hybrid heat pump gas boiler
Micro-CHP
Steady State
Residential heating.Impact of heating choice on electricity demand
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Heat
Pu
mp
Peak D
em
an
d (
GW
)
Two Degrees Steady State History
Projection uncertainty.Sometimes the pace of change can be more rapid than we expect
Projection uncertainty.Sometimes the pace of change can be more rapid than we expect
SWOT ANALYSIS
Worcestershire Growth plans
Strategic Economic Plan(by 2025):
• To create 25,000 jobs
• Increase GVA by £2.9bn; and
• Contribute towards the delivery of 21,500 new homes
Worcestershire SWOT Analysis.Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats
We are interested in feedback on how you view Worcestershire’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats from an energy perspective.
Where does energy present a barrier to economic growth?
Where does energy present an opportunity for Worcestershire?
What might be the opportunities or threats to Worcestershire in a low carbon future that aligns with the Two Degrees scenario?
What would they be in a Steady State scenario in which the pace of change is slower and decarbonisation is less of a priority?
Worcestershire PrioritiesInitially identified priorities
Challenge/need for enhanced grid capacity and flexibility - studies to identify areas of improvement in line with:
Research (energy implications of future development in the county),
National strategy (increased electrification of transport and heat)
Impact of technological development on future energy needs
Development of low-carbon energy sources, including deep geothermal energy
Addressing fuel poverty – provision of affordable energy
Further development of Worcestershire’s growing low-carbon sector
Provision of evidence to support the strengthening of energy-related planning policy e.g. relating to renewable energy and heat networks