Energy Status and an Emission Energy Status and an Emission Scenario of China Chen Wenying Niu Yujing Cambridge December 11 2008 Cambridge, December 11,2008 1
Energy Status and an EmissionEnergy Status and an Emission Scenario of ChinaSce a o o C a
Chen Wenyingy gNiu Yujing
Cambridge December 11 2008Cambridge, December 11,2008
1
OUTLINEOUTLINE
• Summary of energy status and trend in China
• Policies and achievement to respond to climate change
• An energy development and carbon emission scenario
• Conclusion• Conclusion
2
Primary Energy Production and Consumption
1980 – 1984: low increasing of energy consumption due to decreasing proportion of secondary industry
1985 1996 l ti i i f ti d t1985 – 1996: accelerating increasing of energy consumption due to the light industry expansion
1996 – 2000: energy consumption increasing fluctuation1996 – 2000: energy consumption increasing fluctuation 2000– 2007: accelerating increasing of energy consumption 3
Energy Flowchart of China in 2005
4
China’s Power Sector Development
E d d 600 GW i 2006
Exceeded 700 GW in 2007
Exceeded 500 GW in 2005
Exceeded 600 GW in 2006
Exceeded 400 GW in 2004
Exceeded 300 GW in 2000
Exceeded 100 GW in 1987
Exceeded 200 GW in 1995
1 85 GW in 1949
57.12 GW in 1978
Exceeded 100 GW in 1987
1.85 GW in 1949
5
China’s Power Mix from 2003 to 2007
6
Unit Scale Mix and Energy Efficiency of Thermal Power
Coal consumption ofpower supply (gce/kWh)Unit Size (MW) Coal consumption ofpower supply (gce/kWh)Unit Size (MW)
Energy efficiency of different size of coal power unit in China in 2006
1000MW
Thermal Power Mix as of end 2007
50025550126006
power supply (gce/kWh)Unit Size (MW)
50025550126006
power supply (gce/kWh)Unit Size (MW)
0-99MW30%
500-990MW17%
2%
3403004101004405050025
3403004101004405050025
100 199MW
300-390MW32%
285.61000292600299600340300
285.61000292600299600340300
200-299MW10%
100-199MW9%
32%
399417
414412
410408420
450
357366
370376
380383
385392
399414 410 404
360
390
300
330
Coal Consumption of Power Supply( gce/KWh)
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC), National Development and Reform Comission (NDRC), Asian Development Bank (ADB). 7
Unit Scale Mix of New Installed Capacity of Coal Power140 2007
2006 123.6GW
)140 2007
2006 123.6GW
)140 2007
200620072006 123.6GW
)
120 20052004
Pla
nt (
GW
)
USC Units: Zouxian 2×1000MW
120 20052004
Pla
nt (
GW
)
120 2005200420052004
Pla
nt (
GW
)
USC Units: Zouxian 2×1000MWUSC Units: Zouxian 2×1000MW
80
10089.5GW
al P
ower
Pl USC Units: Zouxian. 2×1000MW
Yuhuan. 4 ×1000MW80
10089.5GW
al P
ower
Pl
80
10089.5GW
al P
ower
Pl USC Units: Zouxian. 2×1000MW
Yuhuan. 4 ×1000MW
USC Units: Zouxian. 2×1000MW
Yuhuan. 4 ×1000MW
60
80
city
of C
oa
Yuhuan. 4 ×1000MW
Taizhou. 2×1000MW60
80
city
of C
oa
60
80
city
of C
oa
Yuhuan. 4 ×1000MW
Taizhou. 2×1000MW
Yuhuan. 4 ×1000MW
Taizhou. 2×1000MW
40
60
lled
Cap
ac
000 W
40
60
lled
Cap
ac
40
60
lled
Cap
ac
000 W000 W
20 16.9GW9 8GWN
ew I
nsta
ll
20 16.9GW9 8GWN
ew I
nsta
ll
20 16.9GW9 8GWN
ew I
nsta
ll
0100 200 300 600 1000
3.8GW9.8GW
7GWN
0100 200 300 600 1000
3.8GW9.8GW
7GWN
0100 200 300 600 1000
3.8GW9.8GW
7GWN
100 200 300 600 1000Unit Capacity (MW)
Source: Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Research & Education Centre. Note: USC, Ultra-supercritical
100 200 300 600 1000Unit Capacity (MW)
100 200 300 600 1000Unit Capacity (MW)
Source: Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Research & Education Centre. Note: USC, Ultra-supercritical8
St t i Obj ti t R d t Cli t ChStrategic Objectives to Respond to Climate Change
China’s National Climate Change Programme (June 2007)• to make significant achievements in controlling greenhouse• to make significant achievements in controlling greenhouse
gas emissions• to enhance the capability of continuous adaptation to• to enhance the capability of continuous adaptation to
climate changet t li t h l t d i t h l d• to promote climate change related science, technology and R&D to a new level
• to remarkably raise public awareness on climate change• and to further strengthen the institutions and mechanisms
on climate change
9
Policies and Objectives to Respond to Climate ChangeAccelerating the transformation of economic growth pattern:
about 20% reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP by 2010
Optimizing energy consumption structure: Op g e e gy co su p o s uc u e
to raise the proportion of renewable energy (including large-scale hydropower)
i i l t 10% b 2010in primary energy supply up to 10% by 2010
Developing a recycling economy, raising resources utilization efficiency
By 2010, the emissions of nitrous oxide from industrial production should be no
higher than in 2005.g e t a 005
Carrying out the policies and measures on forestation, returning
farmland to forest and grassland, natural forest protection and so on:
Increasing the forest coverage rate to 20% and realizing the increase of carbon
sink by 50 million tons over the level of 2005 by 2010. 10
Achievement in 2007
• Energy intensity per GDP reductionEnergy intensity per GDP reduction
– 1.79%(2006) 3.66%(2007)
• Development and application of advance technology
• Accelerating the pace of eliminating backward production capacityAccelerating the pace of eliminating backward production capacity
14.38 million kW of small thermal power units (37.6 million tons CO2 annually)
46.59 million tons of iron-smelting capacity
37.47 million tons of steelmaking capacity
52 million tons of cement production capacity
More than 2 000 heavily polluting papermaking plantsMore than 2,000 heavily polluting papermaking plants,
chemical plants, and printing and dyeing mills
About 11,200 small coal mines. 11
Assumption on Future Economic Development p p
12
Assumption on Populationp p
1500
700
13
Assumption on Industry Structure Adjustment
14
Compare of GDP Assumptions
30000
25000
0$
15000
20000
llion
200
0
10000
GD
P/ b
il
0
5000
02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TU2008 ERI ESR NIC DRC TU2005
15
Compare of Population Assumptionsp p p
15.516.0
14 515.0
08 )
13 514.014.5
OP(
10
13.013.5PO
12.012.5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050TU2008 TU2005 ERI ESREIA IEA APERCEIA IEA APERC
16
A Scenario of Energy DevelopmentA Scenario of Energy Development
17
A Scenario of Carbon EmissionA Scenario of Carbon Emission
CO2 Emission (billion t CO2)
Energy Consumption
CO2 Emission per unit Energy Consumption
Energy Consumption /Population
CO2 /Population(t CO2 per capital)
CO2/GDP(kg CO2/$)(billion t CO2)Consumption
(billion tce)Energy Consumption (kgCO2/kgce)
/Population(tce per capital)
(t CO2 per capital) (kg CO2/$)
18
C f C b E i i C it l (2005)Compare of Carbon Emission per Capital (2005)
19
Conclusion
• As a developing country with a coal dominated energy mix, China faces severe challenges when coping with climateChina faces severe challenges when coping with climate change along with the acceleration of urbanization and industrializationindustrialization.
• China has made great efforts to mitigate carbon emission within the framework of sustainable developmentwithin the framework of sustainable development.
• Developing countries should have room of carbon emission th t f th d l th i d i li igrowth to further develop their economy and improve living
standard.Fi i l t d t h l t f f d l d• Financial support and technology transfer from developed to developing countries should be encouraged to allow d l i t i k t t ib ti t iti tdeveloping countries make greater contribution to mitigate GHG emissions.
20
21