Energy Slideshow - Dallas Fed

Updated: December 8, 2021

ENERGY SLIDESHOWFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

ENERGY PRICES

www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy

Brent & WTI Crude OilWTI & Brent Crude Oil

NOTES: Latest prices are averages for December up to 12/03/2021.

WTI is West Texas Intermediate. Dashed lines are forward curves.

SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

WTI (Dec 3 = $66.89) Brent (Dec 3 = $71)Dollars per barrel

Henry Hub Natural GasHenry Hub Natural Gas

NOTES: Latest prices are averages for December up to 12/03/2021.

Dashed lines are forward curves.

SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Henry Hub (Dec 3 = $4.32)Dollars per million

British thermal units

Retail Gasoline & Diesel

NOTES: Prices are for 12/06/21. PADDs are “Petroleum Administration

for Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Retail price per gallon

PADD Gasoline Diesel

1 $3.30 $3.66

1A $3.41 $3.65

1B $3.46 $3.82

1C $3.17 $3.56

2 $3.11 $3.54

3 $2.99 $3.40

4 $3.47 $3.78

5 $4.18 $4.42

U.S. $3.34 $3.67

Regular Gasoline & Highway Diesel

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

GLOBAL PETROLEUM



World Oil Supply & Demand

NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts.




80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Q3

2021

97.9

96.5

Million barrels per day

World

production

World

consumption


NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts.


Implied Change in World Oil Stocks


-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022


OPEC Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast.


OPEC Crude Oil Production


22.0

23.0

24.0

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Nov

27.70

OECD Commercial Inventories

NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation

and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast.


OECD Commercial Oil Inventories


2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million barrels

2010-2014 average

Nov

2767

OECD Commercial Inventories

NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.


World Oil Production Outages


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022


OPEC

Non-OPEC

Oct

2.40

0.29

NATIONAL OUTLOOK



U.S. Oil Production & Rig CountU.S. Oil & Gas Production

NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017

U.S. crude oil production


U.S. natural gas production

Billion cubic feet per day

U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 12/07/21. Rig count

series shows the last weekly count each month.

SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.

U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count


100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

U.S. crude oil production


U.S. oil rig count

Number of active rigs

Sep

11.2

Nov

467

Gasoline Demand

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. Oil & Gas Employment


100

140

180

220

260

300

340

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Number of jobs (thousands)

Support activities

for oil and gas operations

Oil and gas

extraction

Oct

209.8

Nov

139.8

Crude Oil & Product Inventories

NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 12/08/21.


Commercial Crude Oil Inventories


300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015-2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021Million barrels

Oct

434Sep

420

Nov

433

Gasoline Demand



Natural Gas Inventories


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2015 - 2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021Trillion cubic feet

Sep

3.30

Oct

3.61

Nov

3.56

Gasoline Demand



Gasoline Inventories


200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270



Nov

215

Sep

235 Oct

214

Gasoline Demand



Distillate Inventories


100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190



Nov

124

Sep

129 Oct

127

Gasoline Demand

NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly

traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide.

SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.

Vehicle Miles Traveled


150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Billion miles traveled

Sep

260

Gasoline Demand

NOTES: Square marks are based on averages of weekly data.

Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied.


Gasoline Consumption


5.0

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

7.0

7.4

7.8

8.2

8.6

9.0

9.4

9.8

10.2


2015-2019 range 2015-2019 average 2020 2021Million barrels per day

Sep

9.0

Oct

9.42Nov

9.16

REGIONAL ACTIVITY



Texas Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.


Texas Oil & Gas Production


10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

Texas crude oil production


Texas natural gas production



NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month.

SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.



100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Texas crude oil production


Texas rig count

Number of active rigs

Sep

4.95

Nov

273

Texas Mining Sector EmploymentTexas Oil & Gas Employment

SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Number of jobs (thousands)

Support activities

for mining

Oil and gas

extraction Oct

109.7

61.4

Texas Mining Sector EmploymentDrilled but Uncompleted Wells


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Number of wells

U.S. basins excluding Permian Basin

Permian Basin

Oct

3399

1705

Texas Mining Sector EmploymentWell Completions by Basin


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Number of wells

Permian Basin

Appalachia

Eagle Ford

Niobrara

Haynesville

Anadarko

Bakken

Crude Oil Production by Region

NOTES: Change in total rigs from 10/27/2020 to 11/26/2021.

SOURCE: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of DallasFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas


NOTES: Change in total rigs from 8/27/2021 to 11/26/2021.

SOURCE: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of DallasFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas


NOTES: Series depict production estimates through December 2021.

“Other areas” include Haynesville and Marcellus.



0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022


Permian

Basin

Bakken

Eagle Ford

Niobrara

Anadarko

Other areas

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022


Appalachia

Permian

Basin

Haynesville

Other areas

Anadarko

Eagle Ford

Natural Gas Production by Region

NOTES: Series depict production estimates through December 2021.

“Other areas” include Niobrara and Bakken.


Energy Survey Business Activity

NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity

since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease.

Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values

reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter.

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm’s level of business

activity increased, not changed or decreased?


41.8

37.327.3

38.1 40.7 44.5 43.3

2.3 10.8-0.6

-7.4 -4.2

-50.9-66.1

-6.6

18.5

53.6 53.044.3

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q3

2017

Q1

2018

Q3

2018

Q1

2019

Q3

2019

Q1

2020

Q3

2020

Q1

2021

Q3

2021

Diffusion index

Breakeven Prices for New Wells

NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses.

92 E&P firms answered this question from March 10-18, 2021.


Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What

WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well?


$46 $46$49

$53 $53$58

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Dollars per barrel

20 6 18 50 23 18

Number of responses

Permian

(Midland)

Eagle Ford

Permian

(Delaware)

Other US

(Non-shale)Permian

(Other)Other US

(Shale)

Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells

Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What

WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells?

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasNOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses.

95 E&P firms answered this question from March 10-18, 2021.


$17

$26 $27$33 $33 $34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

6 19 20 23 18 50Number of responses

Dollars per barrel

Eagle Ford

Permian

(Midland)

Permian

(Delaware)

Permian

(Other) Other US

(Shale)

Other US

(Nonshale)

Additional Resources

• Energy Indicators

– A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector

• Dallas Fed Energy Survey

– A quarterly assessment of energy activity of about 200 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District

• Energy in the 11th District

– Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin

• Other energy articles and research

Click here to contact us for general information or other inquiries.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy/indicators

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy11

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy/energy

mailto:[email protected]

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