Energy Sector Analysis- India Prepared by Dr.R.N.Patel Updated by Pro. Shebaz Memon.

Energy Sector Analysis- India

Prepared by

Dr.R.N.PatelUpdated by

Pro. Shebaz Memon

Outline of Talk

• Energy Flow Diagram• Objectives• Data Sources•Primary energy•Power sector•Energy Balance

Energy Flow DiagramPRIMARY ENERGY

SECONDARY ENERGY

COAL, OIL, SOLAR, GAS

POWER PLANTS, REFINERIES

REFINED OIL, ELECTRICITY

RAILWAYS, TRUCKS, PIPELINES

WHAT CONSUMED BY DILIVERED ENERGY

AUTOMOBILE, LAMP,MOTOR, STOVE

MOTIVE POWER, RADIENT ENERGY

DISTANCE TRAVELLED, ILLUMINATION,COOKED FOOD, ETC.

ENERGY CONVERSION FACILITY

TRANSMISSON & DISTN. SYSTEMS

FINAL ENERGY

ENERGY UTILISATION EQUIP. & SYSTEMS

USEFUL ENERGY

END USE ACTIVITY

PRIMARY ENERGY

SECONDARY ENERGY

Data Sources

• Commercial Fuels- National Statistics Ministry of Coal, Petroleum & N Gas, Power Annual Reports

• Compilations- TERI, CMIE

CMIE – center for monitoring Indian economyNCAER-National council for applied economic research

• US department of Energy

• International Energy Agency

Units

• Physical Quantities- Coal, Oil (Tonnes) Oil – Barrels

• Natural Gas- m3 (Nm3 or Sm3)

• Electricity kWh, Mus (Million units)

• Gross Calorific Value (GCV/HHV), Net Calorific Value (NCV/LHV) – based on fuel composition

• Coal Equivalent/ Oil Equivalent – In terms of energy equivalents of Coal or Oil

Commercial Energy Supply in India Data

• Coal 640 MT(2012) (540 Domestic +100 Imported)• Lignite 42 Million Tonnes(2012)

• Crude Oil • 38 million Tonnes (Domestic) (2012)

• 171 Million Tonnes (Import) (2012) Total @ ~209 Million Tonnes• Natural Gas 45 billion m3

• Hydro Installed Capacity 37567 MW, Hydro Production of Primary Sources 163,796GWh

• Nuclear Installed Capacity 4780 MW, Nuclear Production of Primary Sources 29664 GWh

Commercial Energy Supply in India(2011-12)

Source Supply Calorific Value

Total Energy (PJ)

Coal 640 Million Tonnes 18.8 MJ/kg 12032.0

Oil (Domestic)

38 million Tonnes

42 MJ/kg1596.0

Oil (Import) 171 7182.0

Natural Gas 45 billion m3 9300 kCal/m3 1751.8

Hydro 163796 MU 85% 693.7

Nuclear 32863MU 25% 473.2

Total     23728.8

India – Primary Commercial Energy-2011

Share of Future Energy Supply (%)

Year Coal Oil Gas Hydel Nuclear

1997-98 55 35 7 2 1

2001-02 50 32 15 2 1

2006-07 50 32 15 2 1

2010-11 53 30 14 2 1

2024-25 50 25 20 2 3

Source: Upto 2011 from Technical Note on Energy, Planning Commission, Govt. of India (1998-99). Beyond this period the figures have been extrapolated.

India – Overall Energy

• population 1210 million (2011)

• 99600 billion Rs GDP (1.848 trillion USD) (Gross Domestic Product) (2011), world bank

• 23.6 EJ (560 million tonnes of oil equiv.) (2011), BP Statistical Review

• 21.52 GJ/capita/year (0.51 toe/capita/year)-2005• 19.50 GJ/capita/year (0.462 toe/capita/year)-2011

• Per capita GDP = 5410 Rs. ($1000)

• Energy/GDP = 0.56 kgoe/$

Per Capita Energy Consumption

Energy Intensity

India - Fossil Fuel Reserves

Fuel Reserves Prodn R/P ratio

Coal and Lignite (Million tonnes)

286000 + 41000= 327000

533 + 38 = 571

~ 572+

Crude Oil(million tonnes)

757 38 ~ 20

N. Gas(Billion m3)

1241 52 ~ 24

NuclearUranium and Thorium(tonns)

Not accurately estimated170000+225000

- ~50

Energy demand by Sector. Energy demand by Fuel.

• To produce 1 Unit of electricity, we release 1 kg of CO2.

• India responsible for 700 million metric tons of CO2.

• We are 3th largest contributor to the world pollution.

• India accounts for 5.3% of greenhouse emission.

Power Sector

• 616 kWh electricity use/capita/year

• Plant load factor = Actual generation / Max possible generation (rated load)

• Plant Heat Rate = Heat input / Electricity output

• Net Power = Gross – Auxiliary Consumption

• Installed capacity 249488.31(As on 30-06-2014)MW

• Electricity production = 762.67 billion kWh during April’12 January’13

Electricity through different routes-as on 30/09/2013

Indian Power Sector

NARORA

440 MWe ( 2x220)

NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS IN OPERATION

RAWATBHATA 740 MWe (1x100+1x200+2x220)

KAIGA

440 MWe (2x220)

KALPAKKAM

440 MWe (2x220)

KAKRAPAR

440 MWe (2X220) TARAPUR 860 MWe (2x160 + 1x540)

Wind Power: Potential (49130MW)

Andhra Pradesh; 5394

Gujarat; 10609

Karnataka; 8591

Kerala; 790Madhya Pradesh; 920Maharashtra; 5439

Rajasthan; 5005

Tamil Nadu; 5374

Orissa; 910

others; 7008

Installable Potential, in MW

STATE-WISE WIND POWER INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) (UPTO 31.05.2014)

Andhra Pradesh; 245.5

Gujarat; 2966.3

Karnataka; 1933.5

Kerala; 35.1Madhya Pradesh;

376.4

Maharashtra; 2733.3

Rajasthan; 2070.7

Tamil Nadu; 6987.6

Others; 3.2

Installed capacity, total 21262.23 MW

Wind Power Growth1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

year

In M

W

Biomass Estimation (Million tonnes)

Source NCAER IREP REDB

Fuel wood 93 169 252

Dung cake 83.2 54.2 106.9

AgricultureResidue

36.7 62.8 99.2

Source : Urja Bharti, MNES 1994

Biomass Estimation

• About 32% of the total primary energy use in the country is still

derived from biomass and more than 70% of the country’s

population depends upon it for its energy needs.

• Uncertainties in estimation

• Usage- Domestic, Brick klin, Rice mills, and other industries

• Per capita biomass use approx constant over last 20 years

• 6.4 GJ/capita/year

• 6180 PJ – 1997-98 (4% of world)

• population 17.1% of world population

TREND OF CATEGORYWISE ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Electricity

• 214.6 GW Installed Capacity as on 28-02-13 (about 4.1% of

World Capacity Average 0.177 kW of installed capacity/capita

• World Installed capacity 0.73 kW/capita

• Low Electricity Consumption –India about 818 kWh/capita/yr

as on 2011

• Nepal 93, Bangladesh 279 kWh/capita/yr as on 2008

• World Average Electricity Consumption- 2894 kWh/capita/yr

• Electricity production as on 2008 is 20,261 billion kWh

Electricity Characteristics

• High Losses - T&D and Theft 24% in most SEBs

• As many as 559241 villages out of 593732 (about 94.2%)

Villages has been electrified in India as on 31-01-2013

• Electricity Sector – from State Controlled Monopoly –

Transition – to Regulated Sector with Privatization

• Subsidized electricity to agriculture sector,

low usage residential

Electricity Sector

• SEB annual loss by 31 march 2011 is Rs 68,000crores

• Gap of 92 p/kWh- between cost of supply and revenue

• Peak shortage 12.9%, energy shortage 10.3%

• Estimated requirements of 400,000 MW additional

capacity by 2032

• 70% increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 1970 to 2004 (2004 at 49 GtCO2 equivalent)

• Automotive (120%) & Energy (145%) sectors main contributors

• Energy efficiency, adopting cleaner fuels & renewable energy key levers for mitigation Source: Report of Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change, May 2007

Climate Change – Global Facts

Source: Govt. of India, Initial National Communication to UNFCC, June 2004

Set to increase 3 folds from 1990 to 2020 (3000 million tons of CO2 equivalent)

Climate Change – Indian Facts

http://warmgloblog.blogspot.in/2012_02_01_archive.html

India- Electricity Generation

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

Total generation, in GWh

Total generation, in GWh

Impact of growth in demand on Environment

Global Power Sector

Global GDP projected to grow at 3.4% annually till 2030

Emerging economies like China and India projected to grow by 8 – 10%

Developed economies currently take lion’s share in energy consumption

A fourth of the world’s population lives in darkness

Increase in net electricity consumption by 2015: 42%

New generation capacity required by 2030: 1,600 GW (5,087 GW including replacement capacity)

Twin threats: Inadequate and insecure supply of

energy sources Environmental harm due to over-

consumption of polluting fuels

Strong Correlation between per Capita GDP and per Capita Electricity Consumption.

Forecasts Point Towards a Robust GDP Growth over the next 3 to 5 decades.

ENERGY GROWTH IN INDIA

Source: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/24/em-investing-check-out-the-grid/#axzz2QPfwAfnI

http://www.barc.gov.in/rcaindia/4_5.html

Country’s Energy Scenario – A Quick Recap

Acute shortage of Power at

present.

Energy Shortage was 10.3%

Peak Shortage was 12.9%

Power Generation Capacity

addition is far below the

expected (only 54000 MW

against expected 62000 MW

during 2007 – 2012)

We need to urgently ensure power availability to sustain our GDP growth.

Total Energy Production

Total Energy Consumption