ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 1 Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty Daniel Lerch Post Carbon Cities Program Manager www.postcarboncities.net 26 June 2008 :: NJTPA, Newark, NJ
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ENERGY
Post Carbon Cities - 1
Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty
Daniel LerchPost Carbon Cities Program Manager
www.postcarboncities.net
26 June 2008 :: NJTPA, Newark, NJ
ENERGY
Post Carbon Cities - 2
Post Carbon Cities guidebook
113 pages, $30.00
2nd printing May 2008
www.postcarboncities.net
Discusses:
• WHAT ‘peak oil’ is, and how the real problem is ‘energy uncertainty’;
• WHY local governments in should take action on it right away;
• HOW early-actor cities in the US and Canada have already responded;
• Recommendations for what local governments should do.
The first major guidebook for local gov’t on peak oil
and global warming.
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Things are changing,and quickly.
$135 oil / $4 gas / $5 diesel
Airlines going out of business
Pressure to open coasts and ANWR for drilling
Ongoing economic recession
Housing market ‘crisis’
President pleads with OPEC to increase oil production
Food riots in Global South
Fuel shortages in Global South
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Energy Crisis(Peak Oil: Peaking and decline of
fossil fuel oil production)
Climate Crisis(Global Warming: Human-induced rise in average global temperature)
Unbridled burning of fossil fuelsin the modern industrial era.
Overpopulation
Biodiversity loss
Anthropocentric worldviews
Release of toxic materials
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What’s happening?What’s happening?
Demand is RISING... ...but Supply is LEVELLING, and will soon fall.
Developing world is rapidly industrializing (China, India)
Western world demand growth
The “easy oil” is gone Logistical (financial) limits to what
can ultimately be produced
The fundamental factors of oil supply and demand are changing.
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What’s happening?
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Overview 2006, p.64
*
The old assumptions no longer fit...
2008
Jan. 2, 2008: $100/barrel
June 16, 2008: $139.89/barrel*
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What’s happening?
...which means we can no longer rely on the usual ‘experts'...
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/news/economy/cheap_oil/index.htm
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What’s happening?
...but fortunately, more and more leaders do see the problems ahead...
“There is no doubt demand for oil is outpacing supply at a rapid pace, and has been for some time now,” [GM Chairman Rick] Wagoner said.
- 15 January 2008, “Time's up for petrol cars,
says GM chief," Sydney Morning Herald
www.chron.com/CDA/archives/archive.mpl?id=2007_4465038
“[T]here is growing concern that the supply of oil may soon peak as consumption continues to grow, known supplies run out and new reserves become harder to find.“
- 21 June 2008 issue of The Economist
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What’s happening?
A Very Brief Summary of the Peak Oil Problem...
1. The era of easy oil is over. (-Chevron)
2. The difficult oil won’t fill the gap.
3. What’s left isn’t all ours to buy.
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What’s happening?
1. The “easy oil” has peaked. Discoveries peaked in the 1960s, production is plateauing now.
Source: Colin Campbell, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
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What’s happening?
OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS2004 Scenario
US-48
Europe
Russia
Other
M.East
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Bill
ion
Bar
rels
a y
ear
(Gb
/a)
US-48 Europe Russia Other M.East Heavy etc. Deepwater Polar NGLCampbell, C. 2004.
History and Projection of World Oil (and Gas Liquids) Production, 2004
Conventional Oil
Conventional Oil
Unconventional Oil
Unconventional Oil
2. The “difficult oil” can’t make up the difference.Supply
and 'Business-As-Usual
Demand' Gap
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What’s happening?
3. The remaining oil isn’t all ours to buy.
(cc) Proggie/Flickr
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL139687720080413
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What’s the problem?What’s the problem?
What does this mean for decision-makers?:
Declining Supply + Rising Demand =
Higher Oil Prices +
Oil Price & Supply Volatility
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• “Timely, aggressive mitigation initiativesaddressing both the supply and demand sides...”
What does this mean for decision-makers?:
From Hirsch, Robert. et al. “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management.” Report for U.S. Department of Energy, February 2005:
What’s the problem?
• “Mitigation will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort...”
• “Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications...would otherwise be chaotic.”
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Why is this a problem at the local level?
1. Over-dependence on oil
2. Price volatility of goods
3. Potential for shortages / emergencies
4. Long-term economic shifts
What’s the problem?
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Why is this a problem for cities?
• Oil is an essential input: We are dependent on oil as a raw material.
“Oil makes it possible to
transport food to
the ...megacities of the
world.
“Oil also provides the
plastics and chemicals that
are the bricks and mortar
of contemporary
civilization...”
–Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. 1991.
• Oil is an assumed input: Systems assume stability in oil supplies and prices.
• Oil is a non-interchangeable input(in the short and medium term): Alternatives to oil are still marginal.
1. Over-dependence on oil
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Why is this a problem for cities?
2. Price volatility of goods
• Unexpected price changes in oil products (gasoline, asphalt)
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Why is this a problem for cities?
2. Price volatility of goods
• Unexpected price changes in other products(push for ethanol = higher meat prices)
• Unexpected price changes in oil products (gasoline, asphalt)
…higher fuel prices and energy costs; higher transportation costs…
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Why is this a problem for cities?
3. Potential for shortages and emergencies
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Why is this a problem for cities?
3. Potential for shortages and emergencies
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Why is this a problem for cities?
4. Long-term economic shifts
• How will the global economy adjust?(global trade flows)
• How will this impact regional and local economies?(relative advantage; provisioning systems)
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Why is this a problem for cities?
set meaningful budgets make long-range land use and
transportation plans serve residents and the local
business community
...with such uncertainty surrounding the most important material to our global, regional and local economies?
How can cities...
“ Energy Uncertainty ”
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What are cities already doing?
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Portland Peak Oil Task Force
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Post Carbon Cities guidebook recommendations
1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).
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Post Carbon Cities guidebook recommendations
1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).
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Post Carbon Cities guidebook recommendations
1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).
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Post Carbon Cities guidebook
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Post Carbon Cities book and program Daniel Lerch, Program Managerwww.postcarboncities.net [email protected]
$30.00 USDQuantity discounts available
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