ENERGY POLICY: WHAT IS COHERENCE? Khalil Elahee, MA(Cantab), PhD Faculty of Engineering, University of Mauritius.

ENERGY POLICY:ENERGY POLICY:WHAT IS WHAT IS

COHERENCE?COHERENCE?

Khalil Elahee, MA(Cantab), PhDKhalil Elahee, MA(Cantab), PhD

Faculty of Engineering,Faculty of Engineering,

University of MauritiusUniversity of Mauritius

ContentContent

Energy: E5 dimensionsEnergy: E5 dimensions Indicators: what are these?Indicators: what are these? Selection, calculation and presentation of Selection, calculation and presentation of

indicatorsindicators Key observationsKey observations Outline Energy Policy: an analysisOutline Energy Policy: an analysis ConclusionConclusion

Energy Energy

EngineeringEngineering EconomicEconomic EnvironmentalEnvironmental EthicalEthical

5E’s 5E’s of of SustainableSustainableEnergy Energy ManagementManagement

IndicatorsIndicators

Indicators are Indicators are derived from data derived from data and are the most and are the most basic tools for basic tools for analyzing changesanalyzing changes

DataData

IndicatorsIndicators

IndexIndex

InformationInformation

Selecting Energy IndicatorsSelecting Energy Indicators

Holistic Set of Holistic Set of IndicatorsIndicators

RelevanceRelevance UnderstandabilityUnderstandability ReliabilityReliability Accessibility of dataAccessibility of data

Selected IndicatorsSelected Indicators

EnvironmentalEnvironmental Indicator 1: GHG emission Indicator 1: GHG emission

from energy use per from energy use per capitacapita

Indicator 2: Most Indicator 2: Most significant pollutant from significant pollutant from energy use (SO2) per energy use (SO2) per capitacapita

EthicalEthical Indicator 3: Share of Indicator 3: Share of

household income on household income on energyenergy

Indicator 4: Investment in Indicator 4: Investment in clean energy/ total clean energy/ total investmentinvestment

EconomicEconomic Indicator 5: Energy Indicator 5: Energy

resilience (net import of resilience (net import of energy/ total energy energy/ total energy requirement)requirement)

Indicator 6: Burden on Indicator 6: Burden on energy investment /GDPenergy investment /GDP

EngineeringEngineering Indicator 7: Energy use Indicator 7: Energy use

per GDPper GDP Indicator 8: Share of Indicator 8: Share of

renewable energy per renewable energy per total energy requirementtotal energy requirement

Calculation of IndicatorsCalculation of Indicators

Indicator ( I Indicator ( I yearyear) = ( X – Y ) / Z ) = ( X – Y ) / Z

wherewhere

X = Observed valueX = Observed value

Y = Target valueY = Target value

Z = Difference between Z = Difference between

a reference value and Ya reference value and Y

Comparing 1990, 2000 and Comparing 1990, 2000 and 20042004

I1990 I1995 I2004

Indicator 1 -0.19 0.034 0.301

Indicator 2 0.32 0.42 1.116

Indicator 3 0.125 0.13 0.165

Indicator 4 0.964 0.925 0.9

Indicator 5 0.594 0.67 0.78

Indicator 6 0.462 0.311 0.554

Indicator 7 1.157 0.842 0.783

Indicator 8 0.625 0.718 0.845

Energy Indicators

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.21

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

I1990 I1995 I2004

Key observationsKey observations

Except for Energy Intensity ( Indicator 7), there has been Except for Energy Intensity ( Indicator 7), there has been no no significant improvementsignificant improvement for any of the Indicators since 1990. for any of the Indicators since 1990.

The worst cases are than of The worst cases are than of GHG emissions per capitaGHG emissions per capita ( Indicator 1) and emission of most significant pollutant ( Indicator 1) and emission of most significant pollutant (SO2) per (SO2) per capitacapita (Indicator 2) (Indicator 2)

A shrinking of the STAR is a good sign of sustainable use of A shrinking of the STAR is a good sign of sustainable use of energy. This happened energy. This happened between 1990 and 1995 ( dwindling use between 1990 and 1995 ( dwindling use of coal cf. hydropower) of coal cf. hydropower) , but thereafter the situation grew worse., but thereafter the situation grew worse.

The situation in The situation in 2006 was indeed worse2006 was indeed worse because of increasing because of increasing use of fossil fuel ( increase in coal import by 26 % ) and of use of fossil fuel ( increase in coal import by 26 % ) and of decreasing use of local energy resources by 6 % ( in 2005 cf. decreasing use of local energy resources by 6 % ( in 2005 cf. 2004)2004)

ConclusionsConclusions Making the STAR shrink is our objective:Making the STAR shrink is our objective:

Reduce CO2 and SO2 emissionsReduce CO2 and SO2 emissions Affordable energy for allAffordable energy for all Investment in renewablesInvestment in renewables Energy efficiency improvementEnergy efficiency improvement

Let’s face the facts: the technology exists, external Let’s face the facts: the technology exists, external factors are known and the problem is INTERNAL , ie factors are known and the problem is INTERNAL , ie politico-economic and administrative!politico-economic and administrative!

OR ELSE OUR STAR WILL BURST!OR ELSE OUR STAR WILL BURST!

Outline document:

an analysis

Ethical DimensionEthical Dimension

Vision: “energy independence”quoting APJ Abdul Vision: “energy independence”quoting APJ Abdul Kalam (p16)Kalam (p16)

Self-sufficiency is already evoked in 1997 NLPTS Self-sufficiency is already evoked in 1997 NLPTS Vision 2020 paper. Moreover, the CEB Corporate Plan Vision 2020 paper. Moreover, the CEB Corporate Plan 2003-13 points in same the direction.2003-13 points in same the direction.

Long-term vision is not defined beyond 2025.Long-term vision is not defined beyond 2025. The notion of “ interdependence” or regional potential The notion of “ interdependence” or regional potential

of codevelopment is not included.of codevelopment is not included. None of the 5 key objectives of the Outline refers None of the 5 key objectives of the Outline refers

directly to sustainable development, renewable or directly to sustainable development, renewable or environment.environment.

““70% self-sufficiency in 50 years”, “limit 70% self-sufficiency in 50 years”, “limit vulnerability to imported fossil fuel” (p15-vulnerability to imported fossil fuel” (p15-16)16)

No clear target set beyond 2025.No clear target set beyond 2025. Cf. Réunion where by 2025, 90% self-Cf. Réunion where by 2025, 90% self-

sufficiency in electricity generation is expected sufficiency in electricity generation is expected at the cost of EUR 1 billion ( PRERURE)at the cost of EUR 1 billion ( PRERURE)

In Mauritius, against an investment of EUR 2 In Mauritius, against an investment of EUR 2 billion in 25 years in electricity generation, no billion in 25 years in electricity generation, no target is set. However, 75% and 57% of the target is set. However, 75% and 57% of the latter will be dependent on fossil fuel in 2013 latter will be dependent on fossil fuel in 2013 and in 2025 respectively (p17)and in 2025 respectively (p17)

FOCUS. “financial sustainability” of CEB FOCUS. “financial sustainability” of CEB (Foreword and 22 out of 30 pages). Even the (Foreword and 22 out of 30 pages). Even the Utility Regulator Act(2004) to be proclaimed Utility Regulator Act(2004) to be proclaimed by end 2008 makes the “sustainability and by end 2008 makes the “sustainability and viability of the utility services” a top priority viability of the utility services” a top priority ( III-4)( III-4)

The Outline document is largely focused on the The Outline document is largely focused on the CEB. CEB.

Energy-transport, energy-tourism and energy-Energy-transport, energy-tourism and energy-development linkages are not addressed. development linkages are not addressed.

What is CEB is no more the sole provider as What is CEB is no more the sole provider as possible under the URA(2004)? possible under the URA(2004)?

The focus customers’ interests and universal The focus customers’ interests and universal access to energy is missing.access to energy is missing.

LOCAL PARTICIPATION & COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT. An LOCAL PARTICIPATION & COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT. An energy efficiency campaign was launched in 2005(p13). energy efficiency campaign was launched in 2005(p13). Democratization of the economy is evoked (p1). Participation Democratization of the economy is evoked (p1). Participation of the sugar industry is required in the context of the of the sugar industry is required in the context of the MAAS(p7).MAAS(p7).

Lack of feedback and reporting icw the energy efficiency Lack of feedback and reporting icw the energy efficiency campaign. The strategy of public involvement is questionable. The campaign. The strategy of public involvement is questionable. The Energy Efficiency Act due by the end of 2008 must be preceded Energy Efficiency Act due by the end of 2008 must be preceded by sensitization.by sensitization.

Decentralization of energy systems is vaguely referred to (p19). Decentralization of energy systems is vaguely referred to (p19). BOO thru unsollicited bids is preferred to PPP where public BOO thru unsollicited bids is preferred to PPP where public

interest would have been safeguarded both in terms of selling interest would have been safeguarded both in terms of selling price of electricity and of environment protection.price of electricity and of environment protection.

Instead of confidence-building and searching for win-win situation Instead of confidence-building and searching for win-win situation with the sugar sector in dire need of re-engineering into a new with the sugar sector in dire need of re-engineering into a new cane industry, the CEB is pitted against the latter. Conflict-prone cane industry, the CEB is pitted against the latter. Conflict-prone references such as “apportionment of investment”, “subsidy from references such as “apportionment of investment”, “subsidy from CEB” or “bagasse-coal …becomes coal-only” ( p21-24) reveal a CEB” or “bagasse-coal …becomes coal-only” ( p21-24) reveal a problem-oriented agenda.problem-oriented agenda.

GLOBAL CONCERN. Reference to GLOBAL CONCERN. Reference to Stern, to the new US approach and to Stern, to the new US approach and to the vulnerability of SIDS. ( p1, p7)the vulnerability of SIDS. ( p1, p7)

Yet coal is included not as an alternative Yet coal is included not as an alternative to bagasse during intercrop but as the to bagasse during intercrop but as the main part of the energy mix. See details main part of the energy mix. See details below.below.

TRANSPARENCY. “Need for the Regulator to have TRANSPARENCY. “Need for the Regulator to have unfettered access to all information.” (p20)unfettered access to all information.” (p20)

This refers to future practice. This refers to future practice. In the meantime, decisions need to be taken not only In the meantime, decisions need to be taken not only

in total financial transparency but also in a coherent in total financial transparency but also in a coherent manner ( OECD and IAEA norms on coherence and manner ( OECD and IAEA norms on coherence and sustainable energy indicators)sustainable energy indicators)

The decision to include the Waste-to-Energy project The decision to include the Waste-to-Energy project and the coal-project as part of the short-term energy and the coal-project as part of the short-term energy plan was taken in spite of “insufficient data provided by plan was taken in spite of “insufficient data provided by the promoters” ( p6 of CEB document annexed to the promoters” ( p6 of CEB document annexed to Outline document). This was largely at the expense of Outline document). This was largely at the expense of a proposal with excellent references that would have a proposal with excellent references that would have optimized the use of bagasse ( p8 of the latter optimized the use of bagasse ( p8 of the latter document). Not to mention the wind proposal which is document). Not to mention the wind proposal which is now null-and-void. now null-and-void.

ENERGY-ENGINEERING ENERGY-ENGINEERING DIMENSIONSDIMENSIONS

WIND. Not in CEB submitted as annex to the WIND. Not in CEB submitted as annex to the Outline document, yet specific project fully Outline document, yet specific project fully included in Outline ( p11 and p28) published in included in Outline ( p11 and p28) published in April 2007.April 2007.

Now revealed that since Dec 2006, specific proposal is Now revealed that since Dec 2006, specific proposal is null and void. Choice of strategic partner, rather than null and void. Choice of strategic partner, rather than owner thru unsolicited bid, should be based on owner thru unsolicited bid, should be based on transparency and credibility. transparency and credibility.

Potential of Bigara should be exploited immediately Potential of Bigara should be exploited immediately ( confirmed since Batelle Report, 1986)( confirmed since Batelle Report, 1986)

WASTE-TO-ENERGY.Provision made WASTE-TO-ENERGY.Provision made specifically for several incineration projects specifically for several incineration projects (4.7% in 2013 and 6% in 2025) (p12,p17)(4.7% in 2013 and 6% in 2025) (p12,p17)

Linkage with Integrated Waste Management Linkage with Integrated Waste Management (3R’s) and other waste-to-energy options (3R’s) and other waste-to-energy options ( methane from landfill and biogas) is not ( methane from landfill and biogas) is not consideredconsidered..

ETHANOL. E10 will be introduced not ETHANOL. E10 will be introduced not before 2010, report on tests expected by before 2010, report on tests expected by mid 2008 (p13)mid 2008 (p13)

In National Energy Conference (1980), results In National Energy Conference (1980), results already reported, literature abounds and already reported, literature abounds and Brazilian experience is available. Why so Brazilian experience is available. Why so much delay?much delay?

COAL. Dedicated coal power plants are compared COAL. Dedicated coal power plants are compared with bagasse-coal power plants and stated to be with bagasse-coal power plants and stated to be “20% more efficient” (p5). “To limit CO2 emissions, “20% more efficient” (p5). “To limit CO2 emissions, Mauritius should resort to clean coal technology” Mauritius should resort to clean coal technology” (p21). “”Coal is replacing oil in the medium (p21). “”Coal is replacing oil in the medium term”(p21)term”(p21)

Comparing like with unlike, not defining the efficiency Comparing like with unlike, not defining the efficiency considered, neglecting the potential of Research, considered, neglecting the potential of Research, Development and Innovation and restricting the Development and Innovation and restricting the meaning of clean coal technology to pulverized coal or meaning of clean coal technology to pulverized coal or low sulphur emissions.low sulphur emissions.

The unbelievable conclusion is that coal-only is better The unbelievable conclusion is that coal-only is better than for the environment than bagasse-coal.than for the environment than bagasse-coal.

Coal in fact does not replace oil except in the short Coal in fact does not replace oil except in the short term. From 2007 to 2013, the % coal use decreases term. From 2007 to 2013, the % coal use decreases while the % oil use is constant. At 20%...and it remains while the % oil use is constant. At 20%...and it remains there!there!

BAGASSE. “More bagasse is used in BAGASSE. “More bagasse is used in absolute terms” (p5). “Cane biomass is not absolute terms” (p5). “Cane biomass is not yet fully tapped.”(p8)yet fully tapped.”(p8)

In fact the energy from bagasse in absolute In fact the energy from bagasse in absolute terms is DECREASING today!terms is DECREASING today!

The MAAS plans for 600 GWh from bagasse in The MAAS plans for 600 GWh from bagasse in 2015. However, in 2013, 15% of 3092 GWh is 2015. However, in 2013, 15% of 3092 GWh is expected from bagasse according to the expected from bagasse according to the Outline, that is 464 GWh. Outline, that is 464 GWh.

Scope for cane biomass use is 10 times more Scope for cane biomass use is 10 times more with energy canes, advanced technology and with energy canes, advanced technology and use of tops and leaves. Research, use of tops and leaves. Research, Development and Innovation should be a Development and Innovation should be a priority ( as for ocean energy)priority ( as for ocean energy)

ECONOMIC-ECONOMIC-ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONSDIMENSIONS

DEMAND-SUPPLY.”2 million tourists DEMAND-SUPPLY.”2 million tourists expected in 2015” (p1). “5% electricity expected in 2015” (p1). “5% electricity demand growth annually”. Demand problem demand growth annually”. Demand problem is due to peak ( 300 MW today cf. 500 MW in is due to peak ( 300 MW today cf. 500 MW in 2013)2013)

The requirement of 2 million tourists should be The requirement of 2 million tourists should be assessed systematically. Green tourism?assessed systematically. Green tourism?

It is essential to identify WHO DRIVES the It is essential to identify WHO DRIVES the demand and WHO PAYS for it.demand and WHO PAYS for it.

Peak/demand-side management should be an Peak/demand-side management should be an immediate priorityimmediate priority

PRICING POLICY. “Incentives limited to PRICING POLICY. “Incentives limited to environment e.g carbon credits” (p7). “subsidies environment e.g carbon credits” (p7). “subsidies as carbon credit only.” (p23,24 and 28)as carbon credit only.” (p23,24 and 28)

Environmental costs should be fully integrated. Ethanol Environmental costs should be fully integrated. Ethanol e.g will not penetrate the market without cross-e.g will not penetrate the market without cross-subsidization. Is LPG not currently subsidized?subsidization. Is LPG not currently subsidized?

Brazil put in USD 30 billion in 20 years to promote Brazil put in USD 30 billion in 20 years to promote ethanol and got back USD 50 billion saving on oil ethanol and got back USD 50 billion saving on oil import. Today the benefits…import. Today the benefits…

The issue of environmental costs related to fuels e.g The issue of environmental costs related to fuels e.g coal and products e.g big cars should be fully coal and products e.g big cars should be fully addressed.addressed.

Revenue due to environmental costs imposition may Revenue due to environmental costs imposition may be directed to Research, Development and Innovation be directed to Research, Development and Innovation in sustainable energy, climate change mitigation and in sustainable energy, climate change mitigation and adaptation.adaptation.

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

Recommendation for Recommendation for URGENT CONSENSUAL URGENT CONSENSUAL ACTIONACTION though a though a Sustainable Energy Act Sustainable Energy Act instead of experts developing policy based instead of experts developing policy based on flawed Outline documenton flawed Outline document

Coherent, holistic medium-long term policy ( up to Coherent, holistic medium-long term policy ( up to 2050) to promote 2050) to promote renewables, energy efficiency as well renewables, energy efficiency as well as a regional energy industryas a regional energy industry

Energy Management Office for facilitating Energy Management Office for facilitating implementation/coordination implementation/coordination IMMEDIATELYIMMEDIATELY..

Finance programmes and cross-subsidization thru an Finance programmes and cross-subsidization thru an Environment/Energy Tax on all non-sustainable energyEnvironment/Energy Tax on all non-sustainable energy products, from fuel to lamps (reducing VAT if needed)products, from fuel to lamps (reducing VAT if needed)

Thanking you…Thanking you…