Energy Information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government Energy Information Administration Retail Diesel Price Survey Michael.

Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government

Energy Information Administration Retail Diesel Price Survey

Michael Griffey

Fuel Conservation and Management Symposium

Diesel PricesWeekly U.S. Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices Average All Types

3/13/2006 - 9/13/2008

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

3.00

3.10

3.20

3.30

3.40

3.50

3.60

3.70

3.80

3.90

4.00

4.10

4.20

4.30

4.40

4.50

4.60

4.70

4.80

4.90

5.00

5.10

3/1

3/2

006

4/1

3/2

006

5/1

3/2

006

6/1

3/2

006

7/1

3/2

006

8/1

3/2

006

9/1

3/2

006

10/1

3/2

006

11/1

3/2

006

12/1

3/2

006

1/1

3/2

007

2/1

3/2

007

3/1

3/2

007

4/1

3/2

007

5/1

3/2

007

6/1

3/2

007

7/1

3/2

007

8/1

3/2

007

9/1

3/2

007

10/1

3/2

007

11/1

3/2

007

12/1

3/2

007

1/1

3/2

008

2/1

3/2

008

3/1

3/2

008

4/1

3/2

008

5/1

3/2

008

6/1

3/2

008

7/1

3/2

008

8/1

3/2

008

9/1

3/2

008

Do

llars

per

Gallo

n

$4.76

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Energy Information Administration

• The statistical agency of DOE; created by Congress in 1977.

• EIA’s Mission – provide policy independent data, forecasts, and analyses

• By law, EIA’s products are independent of Administration policy. EIA neither formulates nor advocates any policy conclusions.

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Diesel Price Survey History

• Interstate Commerce Commission survey until 1994

• ICC – a volunteer survey of 18 outlets, U.S. level only

• EIA began publishing May 21, 1994

• EIA – a mandatory statistical survey of 250 outlets, U.S. and 5 regions

• Beginning May 26, 1997, sample expanded to 350 outlets, U.S., 8 regions, and California

• Began publishing LSD and ULSD prices 2/5/2007

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Insuring Accuracy

• Sample Design

• Sampling Frame

• Sample Selection

• Editing

• Validation

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Sample Design Considerations

• Accuracy desired

• Sample size requirements

• Geographic spread and representation

• Representation by type of outlets

• Estimation procedures including weighting

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Sample Design – Accuracy Desired

Target Standard Errors (in cents)

Geographic Area Diesel Fuel Target Error

U.S. 1.0

PADD I – East Coast 1.0

PADD IA – New England 1.5

PADD IB – Central Atlantic 1.5

PADD IC – Lower Atlantic 1.5

PADD II – Midwest 1.0

PADD III – Gulf Coast 1.0

PADD IV – Rocky Mountain 1.5

PADD V – West Coast 1.5

CA 1.5

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Survey Design - Sample Sizes by Geographic Region

Diesel Fuel Allocations by Geographic Region

PADD 1A 1B 1C 2 3 4 CA 5 -CA TOTAL

Outlets 28 34 64 72 36 56 29 31 350

Company-State Units 22 27 53 65 35 39 18 23 282

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Sample Frame

• Multi-stage sampling frame

• First stage – annual sales by State for approx 30,000 companies

• Second stage – annual retail-outlet diesel fuels sales by State for 1,639 companies on monthly surveys

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Sample Selection

• Two step selection process

• First step – companies and States (282 csu’s)

• Probability Proportionate to size (PPS) selection within cell

• Second step – 350 outlets

• Proportioned by type of outlet and zip code

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Survey Design – Estimation

• Published prices are weighted averages

• Publication cell estimates

• PADD estimates

• US estimates

• LSD and ULSD estimates

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U.S. Total vs PADD III vs PADD V

Weekly U.S. Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices Average All Types (U.S. vs PADD III vs PADD V)

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

3/6

/06

4/6

/06

5/6

/06

6/6

/06

7/6

/06

8/6

/06

9/6

/06

10/6

/06

11/6

/06

12/6

/06

1/6

/07

2/6

/07

3/6

/07

4/6

/07

5/6

/07

6/6

/07

7/6

/07

8/6

/07

9/6

/07

10/6

/07

11/6

/07

12/6

/07

1/6

/08

2/6

/08

3/6

/08

4/6

/08

5/6

/08

6/6

/08

7/6

/08

8/6

/08

9/6

/08

Do

lla

rs p

er

Ga

llo

n

US TOTAL

PADD III

PADD V

$2.96

$2.81

$2.75

$4.85$4.69

$4.66

$4.06

$4.02$4.01

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Collection

• When --- Monday

• Where --- Calling center

• How --- CATI, fax, email, website, 800 call-in line

• What -- Retail on-highway diesel prices by fuel type, including taxes, as of 8:00 A.M. Monday

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Processing

• Edits, use of model

• Price Verification

• Mid day review

• Call Backs

• Final Processing

• Performance Statistics

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Validation

• Use of model estimates

• Credit transaction data

• Coefficients of Variation (cv’s)

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EIA vs Credit TransactionsDifference in Price: EIA vs Credit Transactions

-$0.08

-$0.06

-$0.04

-$0.02

$0.00

$0.02

$0.04

$0.06

$0.08

1/1

/20

01

4/1

/20

01

7/1

/20

01

10

/1/2

00

1

1/1

/20

02

4/1

/20

02

7/1

/20

02

10

/1/2

00

2

1/1

/20

03

4/1

/20

03

7/1

/20

03

10

/1/2

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3

1/1

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4/1

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7/1

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10

/1/2

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4

1/1

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4/1

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7/1

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/1/2

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5

1/1

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4/1

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06

7/1

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/1/2

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6

1/1

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4/1

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7/1

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07

10

/1/2

00

7

1/1

/20

08

4/1

/20

08

7/1

/20

08

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Coefficient of Variation

• A measure of precision reflecting the error due to sampling

• Can be used to construct a confidence interval for the population mean

• Price of $4.12, CV of 0.004 (.4%), 95% confidence level $4.09 to $4.15

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Dissemination

• When - By 5:00 P.M. Monday

• What - Diesel prices by fuel type and region and coefficients of variation

• How– Web Weekly Retail On-Highway Diesel Prices – Gasoline and Diesel Update– Wireless – 3,152 subscribers– Email – 33,623 subscribers– Hotline Number– Other EIA Publications

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Webpage

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How to Prevent Price Manipulation

• Size of survey

• Edits, outlier identification, price verification

• Mandatory reporting by a public law

• Confidentiality - CIPSEA Protection

• Restricted access in calling center

• Secure data transmission

• Designated computer in a locked office

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Unanswered Questions

• Are there any planned changes, i.e. will it ever be posted daily?

• Will the DOE ever use a 3rd party to supply the data to the DOE on a more frequent basis?

• Anything new in the near future

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Thank You

Energy Information Administration

www.eia.doe.gov

National Energy Information Center: 202-586-8800

[email protected]