Energy in a Changing World - AIHEC in a Changing... · Energy in a Changing World Subject: Information on Tribal Energy Development - Current Energy Issues in Context Created Date:

Energy in a Changing World

Roger Taylor

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Major DOE National Laboratories

Brookhaven

Pacific Northwest

Lawrence Berkeley

Lawrence Livermore

INEL

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Los Alamos

Sandia

Argonne

Oak Ridge

Defense Program Labs Office of Science Labs Energy Efficiency and

Renewable Energy Lab Environmental Management Lab Fossil Energy Lab

NETL

Major NREL Technology ThrustsSupply Side

Wind Energy

Solar Photovoltaics

Concentrating Solar

Power

Solar Buildings

Biomass Power

Biofuels

Geothermal Energy

Hydrogen

Superconductivity

Distributed Power

Demand SideHybrid VehiclesFuels UtilizationBuildings Energy

Technology

Federal EnergyManagement

Advanced Industrial Technologies

Cross CuttingBasic Energy ScienceAnalytical StudiesInternational ProgramsTribal Energy Program

Energy(Heat, Electricity & Fuel)

Environment(Air & Water)

Agriculture(Food)

HumanNeeds

We Live in a Changing World

Where Carbon Reduction is a Requirement

2005 Warmest Year on Record

Source: J. Hansen, Goddard

Warming of 0.2°C/decade over last 30 years

Where U.S. Energy Consumption Continues to Grow

1850-2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Qua

drill

ion

BTU

s

Source: 1850-1949, Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; 1950-2000, Annual Energy Review 2000, Table 1.3.

Coal

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Non-hydro Renewables

WoodImports

Coal

Where the global economy is very complex

After: Charles Hall, SUNY Syracuse, ASPO 2005

Resource ProcessingExploitationRaw Materials Manufacturing Consumption

And it’s largely dependent on cheap oil.

Waste Heat

Increasingly volatile, increasingly upward

~$60/bbl

10/17/06

~$77/bbl

~$95/bbl

After a decade of low prices, natural gas prices are now more volatile at a higher level.

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

Jan-76Jan-78

Jan-80Jan-82

Jan-84Jan-86

Jan-88Jan-90

Jan-92Jan-94

Jan-96Jan-98

Jan-00Jan-02

Jan-04

Price

($/M

MBtu

)

Monthly price (real 2003 dollars)

Monthly price (nominal dollars) Futures strip (from Nov. 5, 2003)

~$15MMBTUHenryHub

~$8.00MMBTU

2/7/06

US Lower 48 Oil Discovery & ProductionUS Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery &

production with Hubbert discovery model

0

1

2

3

4

5

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

year

discovery smooth 5 yrmodel Hubbert disc.productionHubbert disc. shift 35 yr

deepwater

Jean Laherrère Jan. 2003

depression

oil price

proration

20081930 2050

10000 kb/d

0 kb/d

5000 kb/d

Lower 48 Alaska Deepwater

U.S. Oil Production

Big, New Discoveries &

New ‘Technology’

...only shift the curve

Lower 48

AK

DW

Source: Tom Petrie at Denver World Oil Conference

Total U.S.Oil Production

1930

1970 2000 2050

2008

The Age of Oil

Peak Oil Graph from: ASPO.com - Colin Campbell 2004

21001930 1970 2000 2050

Our Generation20

80

The Age of Oil

Our Parents

Our Children

Our Grand Children

Our Great Grand Children

Our Grand Parents

7 Generations SpanOur Great Grand Parents

Source: The Oil Drum

$113

Earth Policy Institute from USDA & DOE data

~75% Petroleum (assuming electric Irrigation)

Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan, 2000

~10% of Total U.S. Energy

Pineapples to Des Moines

By sea from Costa Rica0.3 gallons

By air from Hawaii2.8 gallons

Iowa State University, Sierra

Three Great Challenges of the 21st Century

Energy, Climate, Food

The Perfect Storm

SS Global Economy

It’s time to change direction

Renewable Resource Options

Geothermal

Biomass

Solar

Hydro

Wind

Power

Direct Use

PV - Remote Homes

Direct Use

Process Heat Buildings

Stock Watering

Big Wind

Small Wind

Small Hydro

Small Modular Power

Diesel HybridsPower

Direct Use

PV - Remote Homes

Direct Use

Process Heat Buildings

Stock Watering

Renewable Technology Options

Building Design

Energy Efficiency

Wind Turbine Sizes and Applications

Small (≤10 kW)HomesFarmsRemote Applications

(e.g. water pumping, telecom sites, icemaking)

Intermediate(10-250 kW)Village PowerHybrid SystemsDistributed Power

Large (250 kW – 2+ MW)Central Station Wind FarmsDistributed Power

Icepag

Biomass & Bioenergy Flows

Process Residuesblack liquor

sawdustbark

Bioenergystalks & strawsharvest residuesforest slashforest harvest for energyplantations

EnergyServices

heatCHPelectricity

Biomass

pulppaperlumberplywoodcotton

Materials

ConsumersMSW clean fractionyard trimmingsconstr. & demolitionwoodnon-recyclable

organics

Crops, Animals

Process Residuesdung

bagasse

charcoalbiogasethanolBiofuels

Food

Fiber

Solar Options

Geothermal Options

Small Hydro Power

http://hydropower.inl.gov/prospector/

$/MBTU

50

40

30

20

10

0Propane

27 ~ $2/gal

75 ~ $5.50/gal

#2 Oil

20 ~ $2.50/gal

65 ~ $8.00/gal

NG

7

30

Resistance

Electric

25 ~ $0.07/kWh

150 ~ $0.50/kWh

7

40HeatPump

Energy Price Comparison

Renewables

20

7

Some Challenging Questions:

•Where have we come from, and where are we going?•What can we learn from the past?•How do we shift from individualism to partnerships?•How do we improve communication and coordination?•How do we shift from modernism (new, bigger, faster) to community?•How do we reduce consumption and produce locally?•Civilizations are built on surplus. How do we shift from surplus to enough?•A goal of communities is to provide and protect.

•How do we move to more local production?•How do we shorten the supply chains?•How do we move from fuel to food?

•How do we develop our local sources of energy?•Heat, power, liquid fuels at a community scale, vs. commercial scale•What are our local opportunities for energy efficiency and renewables?

•How do we plan for contraction and avoid collapse?

Tribal Energy Security & Sovereignty Through Local Self-Sufficiency

EconomicDependence

Oil ImportsFuel at the Pump

National GridCoal-based PowerWater Transport

Foreign ManufacturingAgro-Industry

“He who has the gold, makes the rules.”

CommunityIndependence

Self sufficiencyFood

Energy Water

Skill RebuildingLocal Production

Regional Sourcing

Sufficiency & EnoughnessHuman Satisfaction

“Community of Cooperation”

Legal Tribal Council

Community Champio

nOr Team

Financing Power Markets

Community Energy Use & Growth

Sovereignty,Codes &

Standards,Contracts, Legal

Authority

On-Site Energy Displacement,

Merchant Power Sales,“Green Tag” Sales

Residential, Commercial, Industrial Loads

Local Resources,Federal Grants,

“Green Tag” SalesPartnerships

Strategic Plan

Projects

Environment

Earth, Air, Water, Parks, Open

Space, Wildlife & Plants

Energy Resources,Technology Options

Technology

The Community Energy Development ChallengeGeneral Council