Energy for All in the Anthropocene: A Shared Development Agenda

Preliminary Findings

Charles Heaps, Ph. D.

Director, SEI US Center

www.sei-international.org and www.sei-us.org

[email protected]

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Energy for All in the Anthropocene: A Shared Development Agenda

• Explores how global energy systems might be reconfigured to address sustainability whilst also providing meaningful development.

• Goes beyond basic energy access to instead explore sustainable energy for all at levels that can underpin economic activity consistent with at least middle income levels in all countries.

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Objectives

Reasons for Concern

Source: Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘‘reasons for concern’’ (PNAS, Feb 2009)

Three Scenarios• Baseline (BAS)

Likely global trends: assumes major efforts to tackle climate change will not materialize.

• Basic Energy Access (BEA)Similar economic trends to BAS + major efforts to mitigate climate change + consistent with provision of basic energy access for all by 2050 (without additional deviation in average incomes vs. BAS).

• Shared Development Agenda (SDA)Builds upon BEA scenario. Assumes faster growth in the poorest regions so that avg. Incomes reach at least $10,000 PPP by 2050. Balanced by slower growth in richest regions. Overall global GDP is similar to BEA.

More Equitable Income Distribution(2005 Thousand Dollars PPP per Capita)

Baseline SDA

SDA requires sustained growth rates of between 8% and 9% per year in Africa until 2050. Similar to rates seen in most rapidly growing African countries now.Baseline already assumes rapid economic development. Additional growth over and above baseline amounts to between 0.6% and 1.4% per year.

More Equitable Income Distribution(2005 Thousand Dollars PPP per Capita)

2010 2050 Baseline 2050 Shared Development

Improved Income Distribution in SDA

• Gini coefficients improve in each region as levels of democratic participation improve and countries become better governed.

GINI Analysis Credit: Eric Kemp-Benedict, SEI

Poverty Levels in BEA vs. SDA

Cumulative EmissionsCumulative CO2 Emissions: 2000-2050 Gt CO2Baseline (97% chance exceeding 2°C) 2,436 50% Chance of 2°C 1,440 SDA (60% Chance of 2°C) 1,300 67% Chance of 2°C 1,169

Already Emitted (2000-2012): 406 GT CO2

CO2 Emissions reductions: BEA vs. Baseline

SDA: Primary Energy Compared to Sustainable Resource Base

Primary Requirements (EJ) Sustainable1990 2010 2030 2050 Resource Base (EJ)

Coal 85 132 108 33 n/aOil 139 176 121 36 n/aNatural Gas 71 111 100 55 n/aNuclear 26 31 52 81 n/aGeothermal 1 2 12 12 1-12Hydro 7 11 23 25 49-80Solar 0 2 19 50 7-285Wind - 1 31 56 28-134Biomass 33 47 63 89 78-139Total 329 467 467 348

Sources: SEI, Global Energy Assessment (resources)

SDA: Evolution of Energy Demand in 3 Regions

EJ

Required Energy Intensity Declines:Selected Scenarios

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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SEI Baseline

GEA Baseline

IEA ETP 2010 Baseline

Greenpeace Baseline

IEA WEO 2011 CurrentPoliciesIEA WEO 2011 450

IEA ETP 2010 Blue Map

GEA Efficiency

Greenpeace Energy[Re]volutionSEI Shared DevelopmentAgendaSEI Basic Energy Access

Some Conclusions• SDA entails significant risks (40% chance of exceeding 2°C, and

even 2°C likely to be insufficient for climate protection). • Mitigation goals extremely challenging, but likely still

technically feasible if political will emerges.– Requires significant climate action in all regions.– Dramatic improvements in energy intensities (-2.8%/year) required:

probably requires technical measures and sufficiency measures. – Up to 8900 GW of wind may be required by 2050! Requires building

248 GW per year (2015-2050 ) - 25 times recent global build rate!

• SDA has minimal additional impacts on overall energy use and CO2 emissions compared to BEA. CO2 emissions increase by 4.3% in 2050 vs. BEA. Weigh increase against huge social benefits and likelihood that greater equity is a necessary precondition for concerted global climate action.