Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 1 Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Activities and Collaborations with BES Henry Kelly Acting Assistant Secretary EERE Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee August 2-3, 2011
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Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energyeere.energy.gov 1 Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Activities and Collaborations with BES Henry.
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Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
1
Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Activities and Collaborations
with BES
Henry KellyActing Assistant Secretary EERE
Basic Energy Sciences Advisory CommitteeAugust 2-3, 2011
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Total Primary Energy Use by Sector
Baseline Aspirational
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Total Emissions by Sector
Baseline Aspirational
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Baseline Aspirational
Petroleum Product Use by Mode
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Vehicle costs are in the average risk case (50% likely) and are for a midsize vehicle. Gas price is AEO reference case ($3.64 in 2030), no carbon price assumed.
Light Duty Vehicle Costs ($/mile)
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Battery R&D Advance the development of batteries.
Lithium/Sulfur/air; Non lithiumTheoretical Energy: 3000 Wh/kg, >3000 Wh/l
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Thermal processes dominate energy use across many energy-intensive industrial subsectors
Source: Analysis of energy use in select energy-intensive industries, based on Energy Information Administration 2006 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey data
Chemica
ls
Forest
Products
Petroleu
m R
efinin
g
Iron an
d Stee
l
Other
Ener
gy Inten
sive S
ecto
rs**
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Non-process
Other processes*
Machine drive
Process heat
Steam
Trillion Btu
* Process cooling & refrigeration, electrochemical, other processes** Alumina & aluminum, cement, glass, foundries
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Thermoelectric Materials
ThermoelectricSuperlattice
Arrange atomic planes
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Residential Energy Consumption
Base Case
Aspirational
4.60
3.51
0.62
0.35
0.95
0.77
1.90
1.17
1.95
0.91
0.98
0.35
0.53
0.37
1.06
0.56
1.41
0.99
2.70
1.47
2.11
1.63
3.26
1.87
2030 - Residential Energy ConsumptionQuadrillion BTUs, Source Energy
Space Heating Losses Space Cooling Losses Water Heating Losses Lighting Losses Major Appliances Losses Misc. Load Losses
Base Case
Aspirational
4.41
2.41
0.62
0.24
1.04
0.43
1.93
0.64
1.90
0.54
0.99
0.22
0.39
0.08
0.72
0.11
1.51
0.62
2.69
0.90
2.68
1.77
3.95
2.01
2050 - Residential Energy ConsumptionQuadrillion BTUs, Source Energy
Space Heating Losses Space Cooling Losses Water Heating Losses Lighting Losses Major Appliances Losses Misc. Load Losses
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Commercial Energy Consumption
Base Case
Current Scenario
2.50
1.78
0.34
0.17
0.63
0.33
1.18
0.47
0.74
0.48
0.20
0.10
1.20
0.77
2.40
1.17
0.65
0.58
1.30
0.88
0.68
0.48
1.36
0.73
4.10
3.40
5.24
3.30
2030 - Commercial Energy ConsumptionQuadrillion BTUs, Source Energy
Space Heating Losses Space Cooling Losses Water Heating Losses Lighting Losses Office Losses Ventillation LossesOther Uses Losses
Base Case
Current Scenario
2.61
1.43
0.33
0.12
0.71
0.04
1.24
0.06
0.88
0.41
0.18
0.07
1.37
0.14
2.55
0.20
0.82
0.71
1.52
1.05
0.84
0.29
1.57
0.42
5.20
4.18
6.49
4.06
2050 - Commercial Energy ConsumptionQuadrillion BTUs, Source Energy
Space Heating Losses Space Cooling Losses Water Heating Losses Lighting Losses Office Losses Ventillation LossesOther Uses Losses
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"BAU"
cons
umpt
ion
HVAC
Ligh
ting
Wat
er h
eatin
g
Refrig
erat
ing
Cookin
g
Was
hing
Misc
.
"Ube
rgoa
l"
cons
umpt
ion
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000 Washing CookingRefrigerating Water heatingLighting HVACColumn1
48%
Aspirational goal for buildings:T
BT
Us
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy
in
20
30
Preliminary
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RENEWABLES
• Photovoltaics• Concentrating Solar Power• Wind• Geothermal• Hydroelectric• Biomass• Fuel Cells• Marine and Hydrokinetic
Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
13Same as previous but utility scale technologies only.
Levelized Cost of Electricity
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$8.00
$1.70
$0.80
$0.40
$0.50
$1.88
$0.72
$0.76
$0.40
$0.22 $0.12
$0.10
0
2
4
6
8
SunShot20
04 S
yste
ms
Prices
2010
Sys
tem
s
Prices
Power E
lect
ronic
s Cost
Reduct
ions
BOS Impro
vem
ents
BOS Soft
Costs
Reduct
ions
Module
Effi
cien
cy
Impro
vem
ents
Man
ufact
uring C
ost
Reduct
ions
$1/W Target
$1/W
Inst
alle
d S
yste
ms
Pri
ce (
$/W
)
$3.80/W
Power Electronics
Balance of Systems (BOS)
PV Module
Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
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Top Ten Research Problems for EE (zeroth order draft)
1. Durable membranes that transport only H2O (for cooling/ dehumidification)
2. Room temperature separations (replace distillation etc.)
3. Thermoelectric device with ZT>3
4. Magnets for motors and generators that operate at room temperature without rare earth materials
5. Glazing materials with controllable properties (transmissivity, reflectivity, emissivity)
6. Fast synthesis of Lithium-electrolyte interface layer formation
7. Low cost insulating materials with low conductivity/cm-thickness
8. Low cost sensor for measuring air quality (CO, CO2, particulates, hydrocarbons, bacteria)
9. Low cost, low embedded energy substitute for concrete
10. Multi-photon phosphors
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Top Ten Research Problems for RE (zeroth order draft)
1. Methods for accurate prediction of windspeeds on land and in the ocean (minute scale to monthly scale)
2. High-efficiency biological pathways for converting biomass to materials now made from petroleum (bacteria, enzymatic processes…)
3. High-efficiency non-biological or bio-mimetic pathways for converting biomass to materials now made from petroleum (electro-fuels, sunlight-to-fuels)
4. Low cost, durable materials with high optical transmissivity and high electrical conductivity
5. Inexpensive production methods for high-efficiency III-V photovoltaics
6. Low-cost, durable membranes that transport only H2 and require little or no rare materials (flow batteries, fuel cells)
7. Inexpensive methods for locating geothermal resources
8. High band gap semiconductors (power conditioning/controls)
9. High growth rate algae or other materials that convert >80% of mass to lipids
10.New membranes and/or chemistries for utility-scale flow batteries