Energy Crises in Pakistam

8/13/2019 Energy Crises in Pakistam

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Electrical Energy CrisesRemedial Measures,

Emphasizing the hydelpower role

ByProf.Dr Engr.S.M.Bhutta


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Energy the lifeline of economic development.

Pakistan is the poorest of the poor as far as

energy consumption for capital is concerned.Per capita energy consumption, is one of the

indicator of Industrial development and quality

of life of a country.

Pakistan has 14 Million BTUs as comparedto 92 Million BTUs of Malaysia and 34 Million

BTUs for China.

Per Capita electrical consumption per year ofPakistan is 470kWh, & of Malaysia is 2,708 &

of Singapore is 6,775 kWh


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Electrical Power Generation Plan


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2005


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44903

35413

22353

17328

72169

101478

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

MW

Electric Power Demand (2007-2025)


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2007 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030

Hydel 6474 7379 9071 17423 23948 23948

IPPs 6466 14205 22045 36345 58955 95355

Genco+KESC 6431 10082 10082 10082 10082 10082

Rental 150 846 846 846 846 846

Total 19521 32512 42044 64696 93831 130231

Generation Expansio n Plan 2007-2030


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130231

64696

93831

19521

32512

42044

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

MW

As per generation expansion plan system needs additions of 32512 MW and

93831 MW by years 2012 and by 2025, respectively.

Generation Expansion Plan (2007-2030)


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2597 MW by 2015 and 17474 MW by 2025.

2394823948

17423

9071

7379

6464

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

M

W

Hydropower Generation Expansion Plan


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905

1692

8352

6525

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

MW

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030

Hydropower Addition as Per Generation

Expansion Plan


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Sr.

No.Project River

Locati

on

Installed

Capacity

(MW)

Tentative

completion

month of

the study

Present Status

Estimated

Construction

Cost

(US$)

1 Keyal

Khwar

Keyal

Khwar

Patan 122 Jun 2009 Feasibility Study completed.

Detailed Design and Tender

Documents initiated.

160 million

2 Kohala Kohala 1100 Aug 2009 Feasibility Study, Detailed

Design and Tender

Documents in progress.

1.7 billion

3 Dasu Dasu 4000 Mar 2011 Feasibility Study in

progress.

6.5 billion

4 Lower

Spat Gah

Spat Gah Patan 610 Dec 2010 Feasibility Study in

progress.

700 million

5 Chor

Nullah

Patan 621 Dec 2010 Feasibility Study in

progress.

700 million

6 Bunji Gilgit 5400 Apr 2010 Feasibility Study, Detailed

Design and Tender

Documents in progress.

6 billion

7 Phandar Ghizar Gilgit 80 Sep 2009 Appointment of Consultants

for Detailed Design and

Tender Documents in

process.

65 million

Hydropower projects under study.


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8 Basho Basho Skardu 28 Sep 2009 Appointment of Consultants

for Detailed Design and

Tender Documents in

process.

30 million

9 Lawi Shishi Darosh

-

Chitral

70 Jun 2011 Feasibility Study completed.

PC-II for Detailed Design

and Tender Documents

initiated.

120 million

10 Thakot Thakot 2800 Jun 2013 PC-II for Feasibility Study,

Detailed Design and Tender

Documents under

preparation.

5 billion

11 Patan Patan 2800 Jun 2015 PC-II for Feasibility Study,

Detailed Design and TenderDocuments under

preparation.

5 billion

12 Golen Gol Golen

Gol-

Mastuj

Chitral

-

Mastuj

106 Nov 2008 Study for Detailed Design

and Tender Documents in

progress. Tendering progress

initiated.

130 million

13 Harpo Harpo-

Lungma

Skardu 33 PC-II for Detailed Design

and Tender Documentsprepared & ready for

submission to Ministry of

Water & Power.

40 million

14 Yulbo Skardu 3000 Desk study & field

reconnaissance initiated

6 billion

TOTAL

20770

32.15

billion


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Power Secto r Ins tal led Capacity of PakistanAn overview of Installed Capacity of Power Sector of the

country is as follows:

WAPDA Thermal - 6441 MWHydel - 6464 MW

Nuclear - 462 MW

IPPS (Thermal) - 6154 MW

Total - 19521 MWStudy of the utilization of various sources of power

development in the country concludes as follows:

Gas - 35.7%

Oil - 28.7%

Coal - 0.3%

Nuclear - 2.3%

Hydel - 33%


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Sr. No. Name of Station Installed capacity (MWs)

1 Tarbela 3478.002 Ghazi Barotha 1450.00

3 Mangla 1000.00

4 Warsak 240.00

5 Chashma 184.00

6 Rasul 22.007 Malakand 19.60

8 Dargai 20.00

9 Nandipur 13.80

10 Shadiwal 13.50

11 Chichoki Malian 13.2012 K.Garhi & Renala 5.10

13 Chitral 1.00

14 Satpara 4.86

Total 6464.00

Instal led Hydropower Stat ion s

Components of Hydro power System in Pakistan


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Name ofProject

Installed

Capacity(MW)

Present Status

Kalabagh 3600 Feasibility & Tender

DocumentsCompleted

Basha 4500 Feasibility

Completed & Detailed

Design in Progress

Munda 660

Total 8760

Publ ic Secto r Future Projects


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Name of Project Capacity

(MW)

Tentative

CommissioningNew Bong Escape at 84 2010

Rajdhani at Punch

(AJK)

132 2011

Matiltan at Swat 84 2012

Malakand III( ) 81 2008

Kotli 100 2011

Gulpur (AJK) 120 2012

Gabral Kalam 101 2012

Hydropower Projects in Private Secto r


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N T D C( 1 )

DISCOs( 9 )

TRANSMISSION

POWER WING

GENCOs( 4 )

Thermal Power

Stat ions

Grid Stat ion/Trans . Lines

Operat ion & Maintenance

Area Electr ic i ty Bo ards

GENERATION DISTRIBUTION

W PD s RESTRUCTURING


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Total 19403 MW

Oil

6497 MW

(34%)

Hydel

6489 MW

(33%)

Nuclear452 MW

(2%)Coal

150 MW

(1%)

Gas

5815 MW

(30%)

OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN POW ER SECTORGENERATION PATTERN


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N T D C1 )

DISCOs( 9 )

TRANSMISSION

POWER WINGGENCOs

( 4 )

Thermal Power

Stations

Grid Station/Trans. Lines

Operation & Maintenance

Distribution Companies

GENERATION DISTRIBUTION

W PD s RESTRUCTURING

WAPDA HYDEL

(1)


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There are several Barriers in the development of Hydel Power1. Technology and Information Barriers.2. Policy Barriers.

3. Regulatory Barriers.4. Institutional Barriers.5. Financial Barriers.6. Interconnection Barriers.

7. Tariff.8. Procedural impediments.9. Risks

a. Hydrological Risks

b. Geological Risks.c. Environment Risks.d. Miscellaneous.


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Technology and information Barriers.

We lack knowledge & information about the technology

of hydel power.Need for education of hydel power technology not onlyfor the students & engineers but also for general public

Strategy to achieve five EsE----- EducationE----- EnergyE----- EmploymentE----- EquityE----- Enterprise

UET Taxila has taken a lead in starting the classes forpost graduate students about Hydel Power to implement themost important Es of education in energy & for employmenton equity basics for enterprises.


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and Micro Hydel Plants

Suitable human resource development to

fulfill the energy growth requirements

Oil, Gas and Coal

Renewable Energy resources


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PAKISTANS HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL(SUMMARY)

Sr.

No.

River/ Tributary Power

(MW)

1. Indus River 35760

2. Tributaries of Indus (Northern Areas) of NWFP 5558

Sub Total (1+2) 41318

3. Jhelum River 3143

4, Kunhar River 1250

5. Neelum River & its Tributaries 2459

6. Poonch River 397

Sub Total (3+4+5+6) 7249

7. Swat River & its Tributaries 2388

8. Chitral River & its Tributaries 2282

Sub Total (7+8) 4670

9. Schemes below 50 MW on Tributaries 1290

TOTAL 54527

PAKISTANS HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL


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28

76.2

8.3

13.2

2.4

Indus River Basin

Jhelum River Basin

Swat & Chitral RiverSmall Hydel

PAKISTAN S HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL

41816 MW

7249 MW

4528 MW

1290 MW

Swat & Chitr al

River

JhelumRiver

Basin

Small

Hydel

Indus River

Basin


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DIAMER BASHA DAM MULTI-PURPOSEPROJECT

(PROFILE OF PROJECT UNDER EXECUTION)

Project Location Chilas on Indus River 315 km upstream of Tarbela Dam,

Heigh t of Dam 272 m

Lengt h of Dam 990 m

Gross Stor age 8.1 Mill io n-acre feet (MAF)

Live Storage 6.4MAF

Total Installed Capacity 4,500MW

Total Number of Units 12, each of 375 MW

Power Hou ses 2 (2,250 MW each)

Average Generation 18,000 Gwh/ annum

Cons truc tion Period 2009-2017

Present Status

Feasibi l i ty Completed in 2007.

Construc t ion to s tart by m id 2009.

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT


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KALABAGH DAM PROJECT(Multi Purpose but Made Controversial)

1. NEED FOR KALABAGH DAM FOR IRRIGATION & ELECTRICTY

35 million acres land of Pakistan is irrigated

by canals and tube wells.

Canal with drawl increased from 67 to 105

MAF between the years 1947 and 1976 .Storage depleted by 5MAF by 2006.

Situation of water shortage, threat of famine

Pakistan will have reached the stage ofacutewater shortage,where people fight for

every drop of water.


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NATIONAL LOSS IF KALABAGH DAM IS NOT BUILT

National food needs would be jeopardized as of population growth.

28% loss of storage capacity of the on-line reservoirs due to sedimentation

would result in shortage of committed irrigation supplies.

For implementation of Water Apportionment Accord 1991, new storages

are essential. In its absence it would give rise in bitter inter-provincial

disputes,

The Annual energy generated at Kalabagh would be equivalent to 20

million barrels of oil otherwise needed to produce thermal power.

R i


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Reservoir

Live storage 6.1 MAF

Retention level 915 ft SPD*Minimum reservoir level 825 ft SPD*

Area at retention level 164 sq mile

Main DamCrest elevation 940 ft SPD*

Crest width 50 ft

Maximum height 260 ftLength 4,375 ft

Instal led Capac ity 3600 MW

Estimated Cos t about US$6.2 B il l ion


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APPREHENSION OF NWFP1. flooding of Peshawar Valley including Nowshera

Backwater effect of Kalabagh Lake would end about 10 milesdownstream of Nowshera.

2. Area of Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi plains would be

adversely affected creating water logging and salinity.

Lowest ground levels at Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi areas are

970, 960 and 1000 feet above MSL respectively, as compared to

the maximum conservation level of 915 ft for Kalabagh operation

pattern of reservoir cannot block the land drainage and cause

water logging or salinity

4 Operation of Mardan SCARP would be adversely


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4.Operation of Mardan SCARP would be adversely

affected.

The invert levels of main drains of Mardan SCARP are higher

than reservoir elevation of 915 feet and the back water level in

Kabul River and Kalapani Khwar. These drains would keep on

functioning without any obstruction.

5.Fertile cultivable land would be submerged.

Total cultivable affected land under the reservoir is only

35,000 acres,(24,500 acres in Punjab 3,000 acres inNWFP).irrigated land would be only 3,000 acres (2,900 acres in

Punjab and 100 acres in NWFP).

6.Population Dislocation

total population to be relocated is 120320 of which 78170shall be from Punjab and 42150 from NWFP.

Resettlement of Affected Population will be properly

compensated

APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH


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APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH

No surplus water to fill Kalabagh reservoir

Annual average of 35 MAF has escaped below Kotri to Sea.

Kalabagh reservoir will be filled up by only 6MAF, which will

gradually be released to the provinces.

Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has studied and

confirmed that sufficient water is available for further storage.

2 Anxiety the project would render Sindh into desert


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2. Anxiety the project would render Sindh into desert.

Dams dont consume water! These only store water during

flood season and make it available on crop demand basis

It estimated that after Kalabagh, the canal withdrawals for

Sindh would further increase by about 2.25 MAF.

3.Outlets would be used to divert water from the reservoir

The project design does not include any provision for

diverting water from reservoir.

A telemetric system employing modern electronic technologyhas recently been installed at each barrage and other flow

control points to monitor discharge in various canals

commands, on real time basis under the auspices of Indus

Water River System Authority (IRSA).


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4.Cultivation in Sailabaareas would be effected

Flood peaks above 300,000 cusecs would still be coming

after construction of Kalabagh Dam, without detriment to the

present agricultural practices, while large floods would beeffectively controlled. This would, in fact, be conducive to

installation of permanent tube wells to provide perennial

irrigation facility in rive rain areas. The local farmer can look

forward to having two crops annually instead of the presentone crop.

5.Sea Water intrusion estuary would accentuate.

Data shows that sea water intrusion, seems to be at its

maximum even now, and it is unlikely to be aggravated further

by Kalabagh Dam.


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BENEFITS & CHALLENGES OF HYDEL POWER

DEVELOPMENT

Hydel Potential of 54,000MW to be harnessed to avoid lo ad shedd ing

To reduce dependency on o i l import

Hydel pow er a st imu lator for the socio-econom ic grow th

Highly rel iable, cheap operation and maintenance charges are very low

Able to respond to rapid ly changing lo ads witho ut loss of eff ic iency

The plants h ave a long l i fe so highly econom ical

No nuisance of smo ke, exhaust gases, soot, as environment, fr iendly

Mult ipurpo se to g ive addi t ional advantages of irr igat ion

Optimal Uti l izat ion o f Indus River for d evelopment of Hydro pow er Projects in

cascade system


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Techno logy and Inform at ion Barr iers & Risks of

Hydrology Geology etc

Strategy for f ive Es, Education, Energy,

Emp loym ent, Equ i ty, Enterpr ise

Attract ive Pol icy & incent ives requiredUpfront & Feed-in Tari ff necessary

Hydrological studies on al l streams, to have

central data bank of hydro logy

Act ion Plan with targets for fai thful

implementat ion


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Need to simp l i fy and standard ized Environment Assessment

Inst i tute for disseminat ion of technology, train ing and R&D

recommended

Communicat ion Infrastructure development up to the si te is

required

New app roaches to f inancin g, environmental and social issu es,

barr iers and their mit igat ions, to enhance pub l ic acceptance, and

to bu i ld consensus

Need for technology transfer and & local technology

development

Targeted and com patib le hum an resource development in l ine

w ith energy g enerat ion prof i le


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More Capital intensive compared to thermal

Longer gestation and construction Period

More Construction Risks (inflation, cost overruns, delays, geological

surprises, floods, extreme weather, socio-political)

Higher Tariff in the initial years

No off-the-shelf or standard machines similar to thermal plants

Very site specific. Usually a number of options for developing each site

High percentage of civil works (70-75%) - difficult to estimate end costs

Operational Risks (hydrological risk, multiple uses, futuredevelopments/diversions)

Environmental & resettlement issues

Institutional set up at provincial level

Challenges in Hydropower Projects


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Generally located in remote area, lack of basic

infrastructure (access roads, tunnels, electricity,telephone, colony, potable water, manpower)

Dedicated and expensive delivery infrastructure required

Extra thermal capacity for backup in low water seasonHydel Generation varies with availability of water & head

Limited International experience in Private Hydropower

Projects

Specific Tariff & Security Documents issues

Project Agreements (IA, PPA) are different and complex

Clearances from the Provinces, Water Use Agreement

etc.

Challenges in Hydropower Projects


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