ENERGY CAT – Supporting NYS Energy Research
ENERGY CAT – Supporting NYS
Energy Research
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• CFES Overview
• NY REV – Reforming the Energy Vision
• NY Cleantech Support Organizations
• Federal Cleantech Support
• Renewable Energy Outlook
• US Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) – State Goals
• NY Comparison to German Energiewende
• Lessons Learned – Solyndra, GE Durathon, Tesla
Presentation Outline
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CFES is a New York Science, Technology and Innovation (NYSTAR) funded Center for Advanced Technology (CAT):
• Collaborate with S/M/L energy companies on innovative research to create
economic development within New York State:
• Connect value added faculty expertise
• Provide access to world class research facilities
• Mentor partners on potential funding pathways – NYSERDA, SBIR, STTR
• Spur technology-based applied research in energy, co-fund with cost share
• Protect intellectual property of clients
• Promote technology transfer and licensing opportunities
• Provide economic impact to NYS: jobs, product revenues, investment…
CFES Mission
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New York State Centers for Advanced Technology (CAT) Technology Foci which hold significant potential to expand the NYS economy:
Leverage State funds to increase competitiveness of NYS companies
Microelectronics Nanotechnology
Energy Life Sciences Materials
Photonics Sensors
IT Manufacturing
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– CAT Re-designated August 2015, 10 more years
– Sponsored Research $33 Million ($9M Industry)
– Over 75 Industry Partnerships formed – 90+ Projects
– $100+ Million in NYS Economic Impacts, 200 jobs
– Engaged 40+ RPI Faculty
– Education Experience for 136 Graduate Students, 22 Post Docs, 48 URP’s, 12 Energy Scholars (RPI)
– Two World Class CFES Labs • Energy Materials & Device Lab
• Distributive Energy Resources Simulation Integration Lab (DERSIL)
– RPI Facilities Collaboration: • Wind Tunnel; Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Lab, Lighting Research Center
• Two NSF Engineering Research Center’s : CURENT, LESA
• High Performance Computing; CASE Building Test-beds
2005-2016 CFES Highlights
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Benefits of Working with CFES: Faculty and Staff Expertise
Koratkar Bae Borca-Tasciuc
Ramanath Huang Borca-Tasciuc
Lu Dutta Lewis
Key Research Thrusts:
• Nanostructured Silicon Anodes for Li Ion Batteries
• Scale-able Graphene Manufacturing for Li Electrodes
• Novel Membrane Polymers for Fuel Cell Application
• Development of High ZT Thermoelectric Crystals
• Novel Glass Ceramic Composites
• Design of Up/Down Conversion PV Devices
• Electrostatic Energy Vibration Harvesting Devices
• Development of Luminescent Solar Concentrator
• Advanced Electrochemical Storage Materials
• Biaxial Semiconductor Films for Thin Film PV
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Benefits of Working with CFES: Faculty and Staff Expertise
Sun Chow Wang Guo
Narandran Dyson Amitay Karlicek
Simmons Bequette Chow Plawsky
Key Research Thrusts:
• Distributed Energy Resource Grid Integration
• Autonomous Energy Management & Control
• Wide Area PMU Monitoring & Control
• High Voltage DC Power Transmission
• Oil and Gas Process Refinement
• Advanced Lighting Systems and Applications
• Advanced Building Systems: HVAC, BIPV, SSL
• Wind Turbine Active Flow Control Demo
• Energy Materials and Device Lab
• New HiV Power Electronic Devices: SiC, GaN
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Benefits of Working with CFES: University Assets
DER System Integration Lab
Wind
Tunnels
Advanced CFD
Fuel Cell
Lab
Manufacturing
Design Lab
High Performance
Computing
Lighting
Research Labs
Energy Materials & Device Lab
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Working with CFES Energy CAT: Technology Foci
Advanced Energy Systems Distributed System Platform Energy Efficiency
• DER Grid Integration
• Microgrid EMS
• Autonomous Control
• Power Quality
• Wide Area Network
• High Voltage DC, FACTS
• Advanced Building Systems
• BIW, BIPV
• Solid State Lighting
• Air and Water Quality
• Power Electronics
• Variable Speed Drives
• Energy Storage Materials
• Full Spectrum Solar Cells
• Vibration Energy Harvesting
• Thermoelectric Generators
• Fuel Cell Membranes
• Active Flow Control Technology
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Benefits of Working with CFES: Technology Cluster
• Participate in key symposia, workshops and conferences
• Access to technology commercialization and tech transfer
• Assistance to find research funding, access to funding partners:
Crystal IS, Advanced Energy Conversion, ThermoAura, Paper Battery,
HeliOptix, Ecovative, H2PUMP, Vital Vio, ActaSys, EnerMat Technologies,
MicrOrganic, Tegula Tile
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NY Reforming the Energy Vision
NY REV
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NY REV – Reforming the Energy Vision
REV 2030 Goals:
• 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels
• A mandate for 50% of New York’s electricity generated from renewable sources
• 23% reduction in energy consumption of buildings from 2012 levels
• Other:
• Empower NY citizens to make better, more informed energy choices
• Create new jobs and business opportunities, support clean innovation
• Improve existing initiatives and infrastructure
• Support clean transportation
• Protect natural resources
• 2015 NYS Energy Plan
“Building a clean, resilient and affordable energy system for New Yorkers”
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NY REV – Reforming the Energy Vision
“grid designed to meet superpeaks which occur only a few hours each year”
Utility Dive 3-3-15 Davide Savenije
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NY REV Challenges
“tie earnings to driving efficiency, leverage DER”
• Aging electric power system (EPS) infrastructure
• Stagnant demand
• Federal and state emission standards
• Renewable portfolio standard (RPS) compliance - 50% RE
• Move away from a centralized grid
• Business Regulatory Model change – sell more kWh >> animate
clean technology markets
• Move away from a centralized grid >> localized grid with DER
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NY REV Technical Challenges
“Do the demonstrations, gain the experience”
• Implementing real time control of distributed energy resources
• Bidirectional voltage stability and overvoltage’s
• Vendor proprietary algorithms, communication protocols
• Utility interconnection rules for multi-inverter based DER
• Specialized protection equipment – direct transfer trip
• Market model change – animate clean technology markets
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NY REV – Initiatives • Clean Energy Fund $5.3B – attract private capital, accelerate DER/EE programs
o 39 billion in customer bill savings; $29 billion in private investment.
• Clean Energy Standard – mandate that requires 50% DER by 2030
• NY-Sun $1B – finance 3 GW of solar projects over 10 years
• K-Solar – support K-12 solar investments in education facilities
• NY Prize $40M – demonstrate community microgrids and develop best practices
• REV Demonstration Projects – DPS mandate to test distributed system platform
• BuildSmart NY – reduce energy in state buildings by 20% by 2020
• NY Green Bank $1B – oversee investment in clean energy technologies
“ny.gov/REV4NY”
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NYS Energy Research and
Development Authority
NYSERDA
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NY Infrastructure Supports Cleantech - NYSERDA
• Proof-of-Concept Centers (NEXUS-NY; PowerBridge)
• Incubators – early stage companies (6)
• Entrepreneurs-in-Residence (HTR)
• Cleantech Leadership Institute (NY EXCEL – Skidmore; NYU)
• Test and Commercialization Centers (Intertek, Clarkson, BU)
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NEXUS NY Proof-of-Concept Center
• Program designed for scientists and concept stage start-ups
• Accelerate commercialization, validate customer-solution fit, de-risk technology
• Business discovery team – technical champion/business development
• Fund market research and proof of concept
• Provide business and entrepreneurial expertise
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NEXUS NY Proof-of-Concept Center
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CleanTech - Open Training Program
• Product/Market Fit through customer interviews
• Product/Technology evaluation by credible third parties
• Business model development with assistance from mentors
• Study of market on how to get there, does it represent attractive opportunity
• Finance – do revenue and cost projections make sense
• Team – relevant skills and appropriate connections
• Legal – is IP defensible and corporate structure free of issues
• Sustainability – are there environmental, economic and social benefits
• Development of executive summary and investor pitch
• Introduction to the investor community thru Regional Finals
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NYSERDA Innovation & Business Development
“Agent of Innovation and Investment”
Capital : Mentoring Programs, Promote Funding Awareness and Networking
Talent: Cleantech Executive Program – Skidmore; Entrepreneurs-in-Residence: RPI, HTR
POCC: NEXUS NY, PowerBridge
Business Incubators: iClean, ACRE, RIT-VC, LIHTI, Clean Tech Center, Directed Energy
Market: ETAC, EE-INC
Manufacturing: ACIT, TTEEM, IPEP, UV/EB, Biomimicry
Tech Centers: NY BEST; LRC; CeCeT; NY BEST, EBP
PON’s: EPTD, Adv. Building Consortium, ABP, Energy Storage Technologies, Clean Power……
NY Cleantech Results: 424 Companies, 294K Workers, $4.4B VC Investment in 2014
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Innovation & Business Development Gap Analysis
ESD/NYSTAR Programs: CoE, CATS, RTDC – MEP Program Focus - Modernization, Best Practices, Lower Cost Manufacturing
FuzeHub, Solution Fairs, Regional Innovation Specialists, Build Smart NY (NYPA), Start-Up NY, Innovation Hotspot Incubators
Recommendations:
• Capital
• Only 5 of 35 Innovate NY seed investments in energy – Cerion, e2e, Graphenix, Intrinsiq, Primet ($1,134K)
• Use Green Bank initiative to attract Upstate Seed and VC Funding for RD&D
• POCC:
• 21 of 100 University team ideas accepted – GREAT! What about the next 20-40 ideas?
• $10-25K Research Studies: JumpStart? “Concept” development.
• How do we get S/M/L industry ideas funded for Proof of Concept? $20-50K Research Studies
• Business Incubators:
• Leverage all regional University assets (NYSTAR Collaboration); OTC Program collaboration to vet IP
• Product Development:
• Clean Power – should be evergreen – continuous submission – good ideas are not on a timeline!
• BOS – Emphasis on new ideas in PV, wind, storage
• Manufacturing:
• Focused initiatives – Battery production – same old processes? Electro-coating? UV/EB deployment?
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Department of Energy
DOE
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Energy $12.4B R&D Spending in 2016
– Funding Opportunity Announcements
– ARPA-E
– SBIR/STTR
– Energy Frontier Research Centers $1.2B (36)
– National Labs (9/16)
($6B; 30K workers)
Federal Infrastructure Supports Cleantech
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Renewable Energy Outlook
Basics
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US Nameplate Electrical Capacity is 1,100 GW (1.1 TW)
•100 W
•1000 W (kW)
•1,000,000 W (MW)
•1,000,000,000 W (GW)
•1,100,000,000,000 W (TW) 2015 3.8K TWh, $.104 kWh; (12.6 Quads)
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World Energy Outlook – IEA Fact Sheet
• World energy demand will increase 40% by 2040
• Non-OECD countries will account for 71% of the growth
– China and India represent 53% of incremental growth
• Fossil fuels account for 78% of world energy consumption in
2040
– Oil will rise to 103M bpd (BP forecast 115M) from 92M
bpd today
– Coal usage 40% to 29% in 2040, gas 62% increase to
203Tcf
• Electricity demand grows 60% - 36k TWh (Equiv. of 10
USA)
– Electric Vehicles grow to 150M in 2040 (1M in 2015)
– Renewable energy grows from 22% to 30%
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Global Cumulative Installations 2000-2020e
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US Energy Outlook – Quadrennial Technology Review
• US energy consumption grows at .2-.3% agr. thru 2040, peak demand .8% agr
• 92 GW coal and 20 GW nuclear retired; add 145 GW gas, 80 GW wind, 198 GW
solar (eia Annual Energy Outlook Jan 13, 2017)
• Fossil fuels account for 82% of US energy consumption in 2015, 77% in 2040
– Oil demand is flat since 2010 at 19M bpd, production up to 9M bpd
– Coal declined to 917 million short tons, down 12.6%
– Natural gas production 11.9 TCF (2X) since 2010, net exporter by 2017
• Wind and solar make of 66% of new renewable generation
– Renewable energy grows from 13% to 18%
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US Electrical Capacity is 1,100 GW, (NYS 39 GW)
United States Electricity Sources (eia); 4,100 Billion kWh (statstica)
• Coal 33% (NYS 2%)
• Nuclear 20% (61 plants, 99 reactors) (NYS 32%)
• Natural Gas 33% ($2.49 Mbtu) (NYS 38%)
• Hydro 6% (NYS 19%)
• Petroleum 1% (NYS 3%)
• Renewable 7% (NYS 5%)
US Renewable energy capacity grew to 16.7%, 13.8% of generation
Renewables accounted for 64% of new generation
Renewable Energy Data Book 2015
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U.S. Installed Wind Capacity
IAE estimates investment in T&D $1.8T by 2030
U.S. Wind Energy Capacity Statistics
Total U.S. installed wind capacity,
through end of 2015:
73,992
MW
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Global Offshore Wind
• 2015 Cumulative Capacity of 12.1 GW (+39%)
• 91% is located in the Northern Europe: North, Baltic & Irish Seas
• 2020 forecast of 50 GW
• Offshore wind resources are generally much greater
• Offshore wind is suitable for large scale development near the major
demand centers, avoiding the need for long transmission lines;
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Offshore Wind
Cape Wind Farm Project – 350 MW; 75% Cape Cod 175,000 homes
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The Sankey Diagram – 12.6/38.0 Quads is Electricity
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Future Grid Investment Scenarios
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State Electrical Generation Comparison
NY CA HI TX WA
• Coal 2% 0% 13% 26% 0%
• Nuclear 32% 12% 0% 10% 7%
• Natural Gas 38% 54% 0% 53% 6%
• Hydro 19% 7% 1% 0% 78%
• Petroleum 3% 0% 71% 0% 0%
• Wind 4% 7% 6% 10% 5%
• Solar 1% 8% 1% <1% <1%
• Other 2% 13% 8% 1% 2%
• Cents/kWh 14.87 14.18 24.00 8.29 7.75
• RPS Goal 2030 50% 50% 40% 10GW 15%
TX exceeded RPS goal (10 GW 2025) in 2015
Renewable Energy Data Book 2015
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The Duck Curve
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Lesson Learned
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German Energiewende
(Handout)
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Energy Storage • Solid State Batteries - a range of electrochemical storage solutions, including advanced chemistry
batteries and capacitors: Lithium ion, Lithium sulfur, Sodium Metal Halide
• Flow Batteries - batteries where the energy is stored directly in the electrolyte solution for
longer cycle life, and quick response times
• Flywheels - mechanical devices that harness rotational energy to deliver instantaneous electricity
• Compressed Air Energy Storage - utilizing compressed air to create a potent energy reserve
• Thermal - capturing heat and cold to create energy on demand
• Pumped Hydro-Power - creating large-scale reservoirs of energy with water
Greentech Media
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GE Durathon Battery Cell Factory
• Investment $189M (2010), $20M Gov’t support; Capacity?
• Technology – Molten sodium nickel chloride, 30+ patents, rechargeable 3500X, non-toxic, energy dense
– Grand Opening 2012 Markets: Telecom, Grid, Mining, Electric Rail, Energy Mgt.
• Claim – Initial COGS $1250/kW, projection $250/kW with scale
– 10,000 sensors to optimize production
– Sale projection of $1B by 2020
• 2012 Revenues $64M+; 300-450 employees
• September 2015 ceased operation
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GE Durathon Battery Cell Factory
• Investment $189M (2010), $20M Gov’t support; Capacity?
• Technology – Molten sodium nickel chloride, 30+ patents, rechargeable 3500X, non-toxic, energy dense
– Grand Opening 2012 Markets: Telecom, Grid, Mining, Electric Rail, Energy Mgt.
• Claim – Initial COGS $1250/kW, projection $250/kW with scale
– 10,000 sensors to optimize production
– Sale projection of $1B by 2020
• 2012 Revenues $64M+; 300-450 employees
• September 2015 ceased operation
“GE
production
is not cost
effective”
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Lithium Ion Battery Cost Projections cleantechnia
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Photovoltaic Technologies - Silicon
• Silicon
– Monocrystalline 18-20%
• Ingots drawn using Czochralski process
• Ingots cut to produce wafers
• Highest efficiency silicon cells, higher cost
– Poly-Crystal 14-16%
• Ingots cast in bricks
• Ingots cut to produce wafers
• Ingots can be cut into square wafer
• Less costly to produce than monocrystalline
• Thin Film
• Amorphous silicon – 8%
• Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS) 14%
• Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) 14%
• Copper, zinc, tin, sulfur (CZTS) 8%
• Organic polymer 8-11%
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Solyndra Solar Cell Factory
• Investment $733M (2010), Capacity 300MW; ARRA loan $535M
• Technology – Thin film copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) cylindrical cells
• Claim – Tighter packing of tubular panels (footprint) >absorption> electricity
– Tracking unnecessary – output 8.5% efficiency versus 14-16% reported
– 2006 – 1000 global systems installed (100 MW)
• 2010 Revenues $140M; 1000 employees; Market Cap $2B
• September 2011 declared bankruptcy
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Solyndra Solar Cell Factory
• Investment $733M (2010), Capacity 300MW; ARRA loan $535M
• Technology – Thin film copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) cylindrical cells
• Claim – Tighter packing of tubular panels (footprint) >absorption> electricity
– Tracking unnecessary – output 8.5% efficiency versus 12-14% reported
– 2006 – 1000 global systems installed (100 MW)
• 2010 Revenues $140M; 1000 employees; Market Cap $2B
• September 2011 declared bankruptcy
Polysilicon price
dropped 89%
2009-2011
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Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Energy—Wind/Solar PV
Cleantechnica
Lazard LCOE Analysis 2016
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Energy Storage • Just six large carmakers will account for 90% of the battery demand: Tesla, BYD, Volkswagen,
General Motors (GM), Renault-Nissan and BMW. $10B by 2020 – Lux.
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Tesla - Giga Battery Cell Factory
• Investment $5B (2016), Capacity 30 GWh
• Technology – Electric vehicle lithium ion flat battery pack, 20 minute supercharge
• Claim – Highest energy density battery, scale will reduce COGS 30%
– 80% vertical manufacturing integration
– 400,000 Model 3 backlog
• 2015 Revenues $4B; 6500 employees; Market Cap $40B
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Tesla - Giga Battery Cell Factory
• Investment $5B (2016), Capacity 30 GWh
• Technology – Electric vehicle lithium ion flat battery pack, 20 minute supercharge
• Claim – Highest energy density battery, scale will reduce COGS 30%
– 80% vertical manufacturing integration
– 400,000 Model 3 backlog
• 2015 Revenues $4B; 6500 employees; Market Cap $40B
???
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Lithium Ion Battery Cost Projections cleantechnia