Energy Assurance Gil Weigand Strategic Programs Computing and Computational Sciences Directorate December 10, 2007.

Energy Assurance

Gil Weigand

Strategic ProgramsComputing and Computational Sciences Directorate

December 10, 2007

2OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

U.S. Energy Production, Distribution and Consumption System is Complex

•Today the system is tightly balanced between supply and demand

•Disruptions impact economy, jobs, & U.S. competitiveness, and may lead to a recession

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Energy and Efficiency, U.S. Energy Flows 2002 (UCRL-TR-129990-02) https://eed.llnl.gov/flow/02flow.php


Avoidance of Costly Energy Disruptions = Energy Assurance

Energy Assurance is:

The ability to obtain, without costly disruption, the energy required by the United States in assured, economically viable ways to satisfy residential, commercial, and transportation requirements.

Disruptions to the Energy We Need Are Inevitable.

You Cannot Eliminate Disruptions! You Can, However, Make Their Impact Small.


Energy Assurance

EnergyProduction

Distribution

Consumption

Eco

nom

ic

Secu

rity

En

vir

on

men

tal

Secu

rity

Energy Assurance

En

erg

y S

ecu

rity

Nati

on

al Secu

rity

Energy Assurance Has Three Critical Parts

Energy Assurance Is Also A Complex Relationship Among Four Security Themes


Not All Elements Within These Security Themes Are Under U.S. Control

Eco

nom

ic S

ecu

rity

En

vir

on

men

tal S

ecu

rity

Energy Assurance

En

erg

y S

ecu

rity

Nati

on

al Secu

rity Within

U.S. Control

Out ofU.S. Control


Prevailing Conditions Today

U.S. Energy Supply vs. Demand is very “tightly wound” and increasingly lacks the flexibility necessary to cope with inevitable disruptions and competition for supply

Environmental Security increasingly becoming a factor in energy consumption

All major candidates for President have stated the importance of a more independent energy supply and more efficient consumption and distribution of energy for the United States

The threats to Energy Assurance for the United States are increasing and are increasingly outside of U.S. control

Economic Growth and Energy Assurance are tightly linked

Cyber-based systems are perceived by the public as having a poor record for security and the protection of private information


Why An Energy Assurance Technology-Based Effort Now?

The U.S. Public is Poised to Demand Energy Assurance

Technology-Based Solutions Are the Most Viable Option for the Central Focus for Achieving Energy Assurance in the Near Term They offer the best opportunity to balance Energy, National,

Economic, and Environmental Security They depend upon the existence of a strong U.S. science and

technology program They are completely in U.S. control They engage a wide and diverse science, technology and

production workforce They address all energy sectors They address production, distribution, and consumption They fuel renewed growth and entrepreneurship They are enabling; not defensive


There is no “Silver Bullet”

The U.S. Energy System is Very Tightly

Balanced Between Supply and Demand

HarmfulDisruptions(status-quo)


Exa-Scale Will Introduce Systems Level Modeling

The U.S. Energy System is Very Tightly

Balanced Between Supply and Demand

A Small Change Will Have a Big

Impact

Energy Assurancerecursive

Fortunately Small Changes Have an Impact on Energy Assurance


Energy Assurance:Path Forward for High Impact

Investment Capital Model(VCs drive business

to IPO)

Dream-Team Model

(Industry leads partnership)

IPO Companies

Demonstrations

Solutions, Jobs, $$ Solutions, Jobs, $$C

reate

th

e N

ew Fix

the Le

gacy

Science, Technology, and Innovation

Exa-Scale Computing by 2015 and 20 by 20

Industry Will Deliver the Broad Solutions


Achieving Energy Assurance-- Bet on a Science, Technology, and Innovation --

The successful strategy requires a prolific S&T activity targeting all energy sectors to drive innovation and technology-based solutions

The successful strategy uses computer technology to drive an aggressive pace—2 decades—for achieving U.S. Energy Assurance

The successful strategy employs high dependence on cyber-based control and information systems

The successful strategy links the S&T activity with industry to drive energy assurance whether production-, distribution-, or consumption-based solutions into the marketplace


Success Model for S&T Focus for Energy

The Essential Three Parts Are:

Science andTechnology

Modeling andComputer Systems

Cyber SecureInformation


The successful strategy uses computer technology to drive an aggressive pace—2 decades—for achieving U.S. Energy Assurance

103 simulation & computer capability advancement = innovation cycle (3 to 4 years)

Provide S&T budget stability suitable to support recursive cycle of innovation

106 simulation & computer capability advancement = systems engineering development cycle (8 to 9 years)

Provide Demonstration and Deployment budget suitable to support recursive cycle of systems engineering development


The successful strategy employs high dependence on cyber-based control and information systems

Perfectly secure system is not achievable

Augment traditional device- and filtering- based protection methods with aggressive use of real-time threat detection Systems have built in capability advancement

Learning Knowledge discovery Threat isolation Performance / Speed / Scope

Systems have built in capability to capture increased knowledge and understanding


Physical Science and Technology Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities

Sc

ien

ce

an

d T

ech

no

log

y Modeling andComputer Systems


Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Energy Storage

Nanoscience

Geosciences/Climate

Bioenergy

Superconductivity

Combustion


Science and Technology Drivers in Key Science Domains

Science Domains Science and Technology Driver

Accelerator Physics Optimize a new low-loss cavity design for the ILC

Astrophysics Explosion mechanism of core-collapse supernovae and Type Ia supernovae

Biology Can efficient ethanol production offset the current oil and gasoline crisis?

ChemistryCatalytic transformation of hydrocarbons; clean energy & hydrogen production and storage

Climate Predict future climates based on scenarios of anthropogenic emissions

Combustion Developing cleaner-burning, more efficient devices for combustion.

Fusion Plasma turbulent fluctuations in ITER must be understood and controlled

High Energy PhysicsFind the Higgs particles thought to be responsible for mass, and find evidence of supersymmetry

Nanoscience & Superconductivity

Designing high temperature superconductors, magnetic nanoparticles for ultra high density storage

Nuclear EnergyCan all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle be designed virtually? Reactor core, radio-chemical separations reprocessing, fuel rod performance, repository

Nuclear PhysicsHow are we going to describe nuclei whose fundamental properties we cannot measure?


Modeling and Computer Systems Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities

Mo

de

ling

an

dC

om

pu

ter

Sys

tem

s


Science and Technology

Zoning and Problem Setup

Parallel Graphics and Display of Results

Pathforward Engineering

Simulation Tools

PetaOps Computers &ExaOps Architectures

Numerical Mathematics

106 Processor Algorithms


Cyber Secure Information Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities

Cy

ber

Se

cu

re In

form

ati

on Science and

Technology

Modeling andComputer Systems

Knowledge Discovery

Real-Time Algorithms for Learning & Detection

Simulators

Data Integrity

Authentication, Authorization, and Accounting

Data Analysis

Graphs, Statistics, and Linear Programming


Goal of This S&T

Apply novel S&T investigation simultaneously among Physical R&D in areas (e.g., Transportation,

Renewables, or Nuclear Energy), High Performance Computing and Modeling, and Cyber Secure Information

to develop new or accelerate significantly recent technology advances with direct and near term application to Energy Assurance

The S&T will treat these three central focuses as a whole versus the traditional independence This approach is novel and will drive towards technology

options that have a physical and virtual representation with cyber secure information as an integral element.


Energy Assurance TimelineF

lexi

bil

ity

/ R

esil

ien

ce

HighLow

Lo

wH

igh

Security / Independence

10 years

20years

Today

2010-2019 – 1st decade

Create Science Base for Sustained, Decade-Long Technology Demonstration and Deployment In All Energy Sectors

Demonstrate Technical Feasibility of Reaching Energy Assurance for US by 2029

1/3-way Based on Early Technology Innovation, Demonstration, and Deployment

2020-2029 – 2nd decade

Technology Demonstrations and Deployments

Achieve Energy Assurance

Energy AssuranceAssessment

Energy Assurance Gil Weigand Strategic Programs Computing and Computational Sciences Directorate December 10, 2007.

Documents

energy consumption

distribution of energy

energy flows

energy sectors

independent energy supply

security themes

supply environmental

o ak r idge n ational