Energy: a national perspective - Paul Cosgrove, Arup

June 2015

Energy A National Perspective

The early days…

3

3 Evolution of the National Grid

1932-1937:

• Central Electricity Board (CEB) established to link power stations

with consumers via a 'national gridiron'

• 132kV network interconnected regional grids in the Central Scotland

and Mid-East England areas.

• Small and inefficient power stations are being closed down.

• Seven grid areas are created to cover the UK, with control rooms at

Newcastle, Leeds, Manchester, Birmingham, Bristol, London and

Glasgow.

• The Electricity Supply (Meters) Act 1936 makes provision for the

certifying and examination of electricity meters

• 1937: All areas of the Grid first coupled together as a single unit

4

4 Evolution of the National Grid

5

5 Evolution of the National Grid

• 1944: 2 out of 3 houses with electricity connections – the

doubling in 10 years

• 1949-1961: cross-Channel power link completed with

France, but the link was often damaged by ship's anchors.

• 1950: Beginning of 275kV supergrid development to meet

demand with 400kV future capacity.

• 1950: The first electric storage heaters became available.

• 1951: Experimental heat pump commissioned at the Royal

Festival Hall driven by two Rolls-Royce Merlin aircraft

engines and the River Thames as a heat source.

6

6 Evolution of the National Grid

• The system was operated via distributed control centres

7

7 Evolution of the National Grid

Early nimbyism…

• 1950s: British farmer Dudley Glanfield of Surrey

prevents the Electricity Board from putting giant

electrical pylons on his land by patrolling with a

shot gun.

8

8 Evolution of the National Grid

1975: For the first time, demand

reduces. 23 power stations closed.

9

9 Evolution of the National Grid

1982: The CEGB

installs the UK’s first

wind turbine plant at

Camarthen Bay in South

Wales

1

0

10 Evolution of the National Grid

1986: 2000MW interconnector

between France and England is

commissioned- the largest

submarine line in the world at

the time

1

1

11

1990: Electricity industry restructured and

then privatised.

1990: National Grid Company plc takes

ownership and control of the transmission

system and joint ownership of the

interconnectors with Scotland and France

1995: ‘dash for gas’ begins and the grid

has to accommodate the new technology

of combined cycle gas turbines.

1996: The Electricity National Control

Centre in Wokingham is now operating

the UK system, replacing the seven

regional control centres

Current challenges…

1

3

13 Current challenges… Balancing Supply & Demand

Source: DECC

1

4

14 Current challenges… Balancing Supply & Demand

Source: National Grid

1

5

15 Current challenges… Balancing Supply & Demand

Source: National Grid

‘Go Green’ Scenario

1

6

16 Current challenges… Balancing Supply & Demand

Source: National Grid

‘Go Green’ Scenario

Capacity Margin

1

7

17 Current challenges… + Carbon Reduction

Source:

Bristol CO2 Emissions =

5,814 tonnes/day

Enough to fill a sphere 181 metres in diameter

1

8

18 Current challenges… + Carbon Reduction

Achieving 80% CO2 Reduction by 2050UK Government target for the built environment vs 1990 baseline

Source: Arup | WRAP | Green

Construction Board

UK Built Environment Low Carbon Route Map

1

9

19 Current challenges… + Carbon Reduction & Security of supply

Source: DECC

2

0

20 Current challenges… + Carbon Reduction & Security of supply

Source: DECC

UK Progress

2013: 5.1%

2014: 7.0%

2013/14 Average: 6.3%

Average interim target: 5.4%.

2020 EU Target: 20% of energy from renewables by 2020

2

1

21 Current challenges… + Carbon Reduction & Security of supply

Source: DECC

The UK has 5GW of solar PV capacity, with almost 99% of the

capacity

£11.4 billion investment in the Solar PV between 2010 and 2014.

2

2

22 Current challenges… + Carbon Reduction & Security of supply

Source: DECC

Around 5% of the UK’s electricity comes from onshore wind,

by 2020 this could double to about 10%

…except… UK Government have announced removal of

onshore wind from subsidy programmes

2

3

23 Current challenges… + Carbon Reduction + Security of supply

Source: DECC

The UK has more offshore wind than any other country.

It is estimated that the sector attracted £9.5 billion of investment

between 2010 and 2014.

2

4

24 Current challenges… + Carbon Reduction + Security of supply

Proposed Kepler Energy Severn Estuary Tidal Fence – 30MW

Source: DECC

Swansea Tidal Lagoon – 320MW

2

5

25 Current challenges… + Carbon Reduction + Security of supply

2

6

26 Current challenges… + a Constrained Grid

Source: Western Power Distribution

• 7.8 Million Customers

• 220,000km of Network

• 185,000 Substations

At 2015

Connected generation capacity 4.7GW• South West 1.4GW

Committed generation capacity 8.9GW• South West 1.8GW

Offered capacity 4.5GW• South West 0.7GW

South West Projected 3.9GW (2.6GW Solar PV)

South West Maximum Demand• Winter 2.5GW; Summer 1GW

Current delay of 3-6 years for those requiring works at HV to enable connection

Many constraints on the network and upfront investment restricted by OFGEM

Supply:Demand mis-match with Solar PV peak generation at midday and in summer

2

7

27 Current challenges… + a Constrained Grid

2

8

28 Current challenges… + Affordability

Source: DECC

Average UK fuel prices increased by 24% between 2009 and 2013.

Compared to a consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate of 13.8 %.

2020 fuel price projections indicate the trend will only continue…

2

9

29 Current challenges… + Affordability

• 90 % of households in the UK remain customers of the Nig 6 suppliers - British Gas, SSE, ScottishPower, E.On, EDF Energy and Npower.

15 years after the UK energy market was liberalised…

Market competitiveness has increased beyond the Big 6 suppliers, with reduced rates and cash incentives to switch.. but…

Consumer trust is a large factor

3

0

30 Current challenges… + Affordability

Source: Myutilitygenius

The future of our system…

3

2

32 The future… A Smarter Grid

The way we generate,

distribute and consume energy

is changing.

3

3

33 The future… A Smarter Grid

Centralised

3

4

34 The future… A Smarter Grid

Centralised + Decentralised | Distributed

3

5

35 The future… A Smarter Grid

Centralised + Decentralised | Distributed + Smart

3

6

36 The future… Smart Metering

3

7

37 The future… Energy storage

3

8

38 The future… Heat Network Growth

3

9

39 The future… Electricity to gas conversion

Integration of electricity and gas grids - Electricity to hydrogen conversion and use of the national gas grid to

transmit energy

4

0

40 The future… Biogas to grid

Bio-methane production from biogas and injection into the national gas grid

4

1

41 The future… Growing Interconnections

4

2

42 The future… Open-data

Source: Arup | WRAP | Green

Construction Board

Source:

4

3

43 The future… Open-data

From spring 2015 the centre of Bristol will be home to three new fast networks: in the ground;

bouncing from lamppost to lamppost and connecting wirelessly along the Brunel Mile.

http://www.bristolisopen.com/

4

4

44 The future… Open-data

4

5

45 The future… Open-data

4

6

46 The future… Prosumers and peer to peer energy trading

The emergence of ‘prosumers’ and peer to peer trading

4

7

47 The future… Big data performance optimisation analytics

4

8

48 The future… The internet of things

Bristol becomes an internet of things test-bed with the ‘hypercat-initiative’

4

9

49 The future… Being bold to innovate

Being bold to innovate…

The World Wide Web Invented in 1989 by Sir Tim Berners (CERN) – a concept initially dubbed “Vague but exciting”