Energie, économie et climat - centre-cired.fr

1

Florian Leblanc

[email protected]

www.centre-cired.fr

ENGREF

19 Novembre 2014

Semaine AthensModule changement climatique

Energie, économie et climat :Les enjeux des nouveaux hydrocarbures

non-conventionnels

mailto:[email protected]

Points abordés Le pétrole et le gaz dans le mix énergétique mondiale

L’exploitation du pétrole

Notion de ressource – réserve

La théorie du peak oil

Liens avec le climat et la macro-économie

Les nouveaux hydrocarbures non-conventionnels

Technologie, ressource et incertitudes

Nouvelle abondance énergétique ? Le cas US

Impacts macro-économique et politiques climatiques

2

Généralités : le pétrole et le gas dans le mix énergétique mondiale

3

Demande d’énergie primaire mondiale

4

Source : WEO 2013, figure 2.5 Source : WEO 2011 – figure 2.7

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Mtoe

Total primary energy supply (Mtoe)

biomass

heat (geothermal and solar)

primary electricity

natural gas

oil

coal

1st oil shock

2nd oil shock USSR collapse

source: enerdata

Chocks de demande

2008 crises

Répartition des réserves prouvées de pétrole

6 source: BP statistical review 2013

Répartition de la consommation de pétrole

7 source: BP statistical review 2013

Consommation par personne en 2009

8 Source: BP statistical review 2013

9source: BP statistical review 2013

Répartition des réserves prouvées de gaz

10source: BP statistical review 2013

Répartition de la consommation de gaz

11

Link between gas and oil prices

Strong substitutions but with uncertainties : long-term gas prices elasticity to oil prices :

between 0.14 (Brown and Yücel, 2008) and 0.924 (Asche et al., 2012).

12


Half of traded gas is oil price indexed

Extracted from World Energy Outlook 2013 (IEA & OECD, 2013, fig. 3.10)

13


A declining part of gas :

is a co-product of oil production

or include gas condensate sold at oil prices

Extracted from World Energy Outlook 2009 (IEA & OECD, 2009, fig. 11.17)

http://monash.edu/

Dynamique d’exploitation du pétrole

et politiques climatiques

14

Citations

« aucune chance pour que l’humanité s’autolimite, à mon avis … Tout ce qui pourra être extrait, transformé, brulé, le sera .. après, on verra »

(commentaire, blog the Oil Man)

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http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/

Citations

« Les hydrocarbures sont bien trop précieux pour qu’ils ne soient pas exploités jusqu’à la dernière goutte de pétrole, au dernier mètre cube de gaz naturel et même à la dernière tonne de charbon économiquement accessibles. »

(Christian Gérondeau, ParisTechReview, 15 octobre 2010)

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Différence entre réserves et ressources

17

Limite économique

PossiblesProbablesProuvées

Réserves

Source : adapté de Rogner 1997

Ressource

Le R/P ratio

18 Source: BP statistical review 2013

La dynamique d’exploitation du pétrole

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Exploration Acquisition d’information avec les découvertes Informations conduisent à plus de découvertes

Epuisement Les découvertes sont fonctions du montant de

pétrole restant à découvrir

La théorie du peak de Hubbert : Etats-Unis

20

Source: Laherrere, 2003Source: Laherrere, 2003

Oil discoveries shifted 35 years and United States production (without Alaska)

Taille et découverte des champs pétroliers

21Source : WEO 2013, figure 13.4

Production de pétrole des champs géants

22Source : WEO 2008, figure 10.1

Total production(80 mb in 2007)

Les courbes de Hubbert

Avantages : Prise en compte des contraintes géologiques

Inconvénients Plus difficilement extrapolable à une échelle

globale

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Dynamique d’exploitation du pétrole

et politiques climatiques

24

Let’s test the consequences of the three hypothesis

Assessment of the macroeconomic cost of oil scarcity Impact of climate policies

All the following results are obtained with the IMACLIM-R model.

http://www.imaclim.centre-cired.fr/

25

26

Availability of technologies

Availability of natural resources

Agents’ behaviour

Macro-economictendencies

Avaialbility of coal

Climate objective

Technologies of final demand Developpement of

alternative fuels

Oil and gas markets

developmentstyle Middle East

strategies

Time lenght of the crisis

Decarbonisation of the electric

sector

Structuring uncertainty in the energy/economy interface 768 consistent scenarios

27

Example of a constraint emission trajectory (here 550 ppm)

Details of the « oil and gas markets » parameters set

28

Profile 1 Profile 2 Profile 3 – optimist

reference case

Resources Low Low High

Sustained investment in oil production capacity

No (bell-shaped production curve)

Yes (production « plateau »)

Yes

Gas price indexation on oil price

Gas price always indexed on oil price

Gas price always indexed on oil price

Indexation disappears when oil reaches

80$/bl

Profile 3 – optimist reference case

Profile 1 - BAU Profile 2 BAU

Profile 1 - Climate Profile 2 - Climate

Influence of the other parameters

29

Profile 1: when an “early peak oil” dominates the other parameters

30


Profile 2: higher margins of flexibility under the “plateau profile”

31


Profile 3: when non oil-related parameters come again into play

World relative GDP variations due to oil constraints

32

No sustained investmentsGD

P variations (%

)

Relative GDP variations due to oil constraints

33

No sustained investmentsGD

P variations (%

)

Sustained investments


34

GD

P variations (%

)

Only BAU scenarios


35

BAU scenarios

GD

P variations (%

)

Climate policies

Climate policies seem to reduce the losses

World GDP relative losses (2010-2050) due to oil tensions w/wo climate policies: an informative histogram

36

Black : BAU (no climate policies)

Blue : climate policies to reach a +3°K target

Mean reduction: 8 000 G$

Co-benefit of climate policies : hedge against oil tensions

World GDP relative losses (2010-2050) due to oil tensions w/wo climate policies: an informative histogram

37

Black : BAU (no climate policies)

Blue : climate policies to reach a +3°K target

Mean reduction: 8 000 G$

Co-benefit of climate policies : hedge against oil tensions

The effect of OPEC strategy on the peak oil

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil production (Mbd)

Limited deployment Market Flooding

Characteristics of the

peak oil:

- date

- level of max

production

- depletion rate

World oil price

On the long run: technical change, Coal-to-liquids penetration

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

World oil price ($/Barrel)

Limited Deployment Market Flooding

OPEC annual oil rent

Trade-off between short-run and long-run profits depends on the discount rate!

What strategy is the best one for oil producers ?

• Extraction before technical change

• Discouragement of technical change

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Middle-East annual oil profits(G$)

Limited Deployment Market Flooding

Cumulated profits (109 $)

Discount rate CS scenario CE scenario

0% 38.9 43.6

1% 28.9 31.8

2% 21.9 23.6

5% 10.6 10.8

6% 8.7 8.6

7% 7.2 7.0

15% 2.4 2.2

1

Limited deployment

Market Flooding

Rent transfer from oil-exporting to oil-importing countries

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Carbon price($/tCO2)

LD scenario

MF scenario

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil price($/Barrel)

LD scenario

MF scenario

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total cost of a barrel of oil,including carbon price ($/Barrel)

LD scenario (BAU)

MF scenario (BAU)

LD scenario

MF scenario

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World oil demand(MBarrel/day)

LD scenario (BAU)

MF scenario (BAU)

LD scenario

MF scenario

Middle-East suffers from climate policies

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-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Variations of oil revenues and GDP under climate policy

LD scenario (GDP)

LD scenario (oil revenues)

MF scenario (GDP)

MF scenario (oil revenues)

Les nouveaux hydrocarbures non-conventionnels

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Nature des hydrocarbures non conventionels

45

Mode de production

46

Source : EIA, http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/article/about_shale_gas.cfm

Carte des bassins de shale

47

Source EIA/ARI, 2013

Remaining unconventionnal gas resource (2012 – tcm)

48Source : WEO 2013

Profils de production

49

Conventionnel :

Gaz de schiste :

Conséquences sur les besoins en investissements

Carte des bassins de shale aux Etats-Unis

50

Source : EIA http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/article/about_shale_gas.cfm

Monthly dry shale gas production (bcf/day)

51

52

million cubic feet per year

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012

1

Adam Sieminski , Platts, March 01, 2013

Hétérogénéité des bassins

Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040

53

U.S. dry natural gas productiontrillion cubic feet

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release

Associated with oil

Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Shale gas

Alaska

Non-associated onshore

Non-associated offshore

ProjectionsHistory 2011

Adam Sieminski , Platts, March 01, 2013

Production de light tight oil

54

Eagle Ford Production dynamic

55

Source : EIA http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=3770

56

Source : EIA http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=3750

Bakken Production dynamic

U.S. tight oil production (million barrels per day)

57

Source : AEO 2013

Uncertainty on projections : US tight oil

58

Uncertainty on projections : world tight oil

59

Source : WEO 2013

Différence entre réserves et ressources

60

Limite économique

PossiblesProbablesProuvées

Réserves

Source : adapté de Rogner 1997

Ressource

Shale gas resources estimation methods (McGlade 2013)

61

Literature review ( subjective choice of study, no uncertainty)

Bottom-up analysis of geological parameters Extrapolation of production experience

Problem : sweet spots versus non


62

Bottom-up analysis of geological parameters Originally Gas in Place + Recovery Factor

Area or volume Total organic content Minerals type (clay, quartz) Gas pressure

Recovery factor is 20-30% (80% for conventional gas)


63

Extrapolation of production experience

Area * yield per square meter Well spacing Estimated Ultimate Recovery per well

Decline curve analysis (decline rate, lifetime..)

( )( ) 1

b

QQ

1 b D t i

i

i i

t =+ × ×

Loi de Arps avec déclin hyperbolique (Arps 1945) :

Les nouveaux hydrocarbures non-conventionnels :

nouvelle abondance ?

64

Scénarios du WEO

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Source : WEO 2011 – figure 2.7

Production mondiale de gaz non conventionnel

66

Source : WEO 2013 – figure 3.7

Comparaison des scénarios WEO

67

Sources (author’s calculus): - WEO 2013-2012-2011-2010- Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas

Succès US

68

Chute du prix du gaz Prix spot /3 depuis 2008, prix industriel 3-4 fois

moins cher qu’en Europe Nombreuses retombées économiques

Revenus des ménages - emplois Prix de l’électricité (2-3 fois moins cher /Europe) Investissements en prétrochimie

Projets d’exporation Plutôt vers le marché asiatique

Succès US : causes

69

Couplage de technologies Géologie favorable – densité de population Propriété du sol Degré de libéralisation du marché gazier, étendu du

réseau Culture du pétrole, tissu denses de sociétés spécialisées Réglementation favorable (notamment sur l’eau)

Et dans le reste du monde ?

70

Royaume-Uni Pologne Allemagne Australie Chine ?

Cas français

71

Source : Rolland bergerLes hydrocarbures non conventionnels en France : la décision du Conseil Consitutionnel et après ?

Enjeux en Europe

Redirection des exporations GNL Impact sur les prix spots Pression sur prix de long terme

LNG quatari et gaz Russe ->

charbon US et gaz norvégien

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Scénarios prospectifs et enjeux

73

Building scenarios around shale gas

74

United States Welfare

75

United States GDP – relatively to the benchmark

United States Welfare : direct mechanisms

76

Lower gas price : Substitution from coal to gas in electricity power

generation Lower industrial goods prices Substitution from refined oil to electricity and gas in

heating systems ( so more in transport)

United States Welfare : indirect mechanisms

77

The structural change inside United States within an general equilibrium assessment :

Purchasing power of households

Lower energy prices

More local demand (services – 70%)

Employment

Gas production sector

Wages

Less exportations (industry – 15%)

United States Welfare : indirect mechanisms

78

The structural change inside United States within an general equilibrium assessment :

US has 17% of industrial goods

market share

Increasing wagesDecreasing

production costs (energy)

Decreasing exportation prices

Decreasing industrial world price

Impact on global welfare : no benefits from lower world prices ?

79

World GDP – relatively to the benchmark

Impact on global welfare : several mechanisms at play

80

Share of industrial exports towards US (26% for Europe) Less exports ( < 0 ) Lower prices ( < 0 )

Dependency on trade As a GDP share ( < 0 ) Share of imported industrial goods in production

costs ( > 0 ) Labour market

Share of wage in production costs ( > 0 ) Income flexibility


Enjeux vis-à-vis du climat

81

Impacts environnementaux

82 Source : Schlumberger

Emissions fugitives

83

Source : Wigley 2011

Emissions fugitives

84

Source : Wigley 2011

Emissions fugitives

85

Source : Howarth 2014

US impact on global welfare : alleviated by climate policy ?

86

United States GDP – relatively to the benchmark

World GDP – relatively to the benchmark


87United States GDP losses under climate policy


88

Decarbonising with substitution from gas to coal-fired plants -> higher emissions

Refined oil : heating systems, more use in transport (less electric vehicles), freight

-> more tensions on oil markets, inertia Less effort in the long-run

Two compensating effect on the world :

-> less gas consumption ( lower previous effect)

-> more effort for the rest of the world

Impact on oil markets

89

Lower oil prices but higher rent for Middle East :

World oil pricesrelatively to the benchmark

Middle East oil rent relatively to the benchmark

Bibliography

90

Bibliography

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Bibliography

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Merci pour votre attention !

93

Contact :

[email protected]

Présentation :

http://www.imaclim.centre-cired.fr/-> Equipe-> Christophe Cassen

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.imaclim.centre-cired.fr/

Energie, économie et climat - centre-cired.fr

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