Enabling Joint Force Authority Decision Making Mr Anthony Ween Director Force Planning and Prioritisation
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Enabling Joint Force AuthorityDecision Making
Mr Anthony WeenDirector Force Planning and Prioritisation
• Force Design Strategy– Linking Strategy, Capability and Resources
• Prioritisation Approaches– Method selection– Options Coherency
• Evidence base and Decision Support– Force Design Body of Knowledge
Outline
Enabling JFA Decision Making
Force Design providescapability options toGovernment to bestachieve our militarystrategy with theresources available.
We provide a capability lens to the relationshipbetween our capabilities, strategy, & resources…
Resources
Strategy
Capability
Linking Strategy, Capability and Resources
Understanding Strategy and assumptions
• Findings and outcomes from White Paper process• Strategic objectives and missions• Assumptions about:– Levels of discretion– AUS Role - Lead/Support– Coalition contributions– Threat– Concurrency– Mission duration• Temporal dimensions
Strategy
Capability
Building Common Understanding
• Method choice is informed by• “the problem”• the availability of trusted and appropriate data• understanding limitations of models and impacts of
assumptions
• Force Design problems tend to be:• Macro-level, interdependent systems problems
• Iterative, multi-step approach• E.g. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) + Options
Generation and Coherency analysis
Prioritisation Method Selection
6. SeniorFeedback
(Tuning & Sensitivity
Analysis)
4. Evaluation(facilitated scoring
and weightingalternatives against
criteria)
5. Force OptionsGeneration
(Coherency Analysisand BoI for down-
selection)
Final options forConsideration
3. Criteria(‘Why’)
Model of Organisation Options(‘What’ and ‘How Much’/’How’)
2. Context• Policy• Constraints(e.g. funding)• Assumptions• Strategicenvironment
1. OptionsDevelopment
• Costed and PhasedLevels of Capability
Force Analysis
Multi-step MCDA example
Warfighting• Campaign Plans• Concepts• Warfighting Functions• Raise Train and Sustain• Defence Elements
Informing options consideration, BoI and coherency
Portfolio Management
• Portfolio• Stream• Program• Project• Product
National Support Base
• Industry & Academia
e.g. Operations Analysis
e.g. ManagementSciences
e.g. ManagementSciences & Engineering
Resources
Capability
Strategy
Resources
Capability
Strategy
Resources
Capability
Strategy
A
B
C
Combined,Temporal NetAssessment
Multiple Design Viewpoints
Program Cost EstimationIndustry Assessment
Temporal Net Assessments
Alternative Future Resources and Abilities(including divestment)
Program Cost EstimationIndustry Assessment
Alternative Program Options(including divestment)
Alternative Gaps & Risks
Temporal Net Assessments
Model of Organisation Options(‘What’ and ‘How Much’/’How’)
Net Assessment, Understanding & Options Design
Informed Business Case
Assess & Understand
Force Design Cycle
Force Design Body of Knowledge
• Aligning with Enterprise Information Management (EIM) Program– Joint Force Authority Decision Support Initiative (EIM Tranche
1)• Objectives
– Moving from documents to Data– Reducing ambiguity from interpretation of language– Improving data quality and governance– Capturing decisions, assumptions and directions– Maintaining rationale for decisions– ‘Suite of tools’
‘Single Source of Truth’
PortfolioManagement
Warfighting
PortfolioManagement
(IIP)
Analysisand Options
ERP
Codify Strategic Objectivesand Assumptions
Resource Registerand Options
• Data to improve analysis and prioritisation• ‘Warm Base’ for updates• Monitor validity of assumptions
National Support Base
• Industry & Academia
Capability
Evidence Needs
Online (Interactive) Management,Business Intelligence And Decision Support
Visualisationand
DecisionSupport
Tailored DataExport/Import
Off-line Analysis, VisualisationModelling and Simulation
PortfolioManagement
(IIP)
FD BoK
I2Framework
CDMRT
Capability
JFA Decision Support – Design and Integration
Contact: [email protected]
Back
Backup
Over time, as our plans evolve, our capabilities age, and our riskschange, we need to adjust our response
Risks Response
Overtime…
… and our plans,resources andopportunities shiftand change.
…the risks andthreats that faceAustralia change,and so does ourtolerance for risk
… our response doesn’t bear the same relation toour risks that it used to.
Whichmeans…
Force Design Strategy
Prioritisation Outputs
Force Design PlanOption
Force Design PlanOption
Force Design PlanOption
Future Force Design• Prioritised ProgrammeOptions• One per Area for given$ scenario
Prioritisation Inputs
‘Options’
Criteria• Highly strategic• Whole-of-govt
Criteria
‘Options’• Programme Level Options• Select one per Prog.
Constraints• Policy settings• Defence Appropriation $
1. Force DesignPlan
2. Annual Reviews/Forward Work Plan
Every 4 years
Every year
Prioritisation Inputs
‘Options’
Criteria• Strategic• More granular than ForceDesign Plan• Risk-oriented?
Criteria
‘Options’• Force options/ GRIOtreatments• Select one or many perStream
Constraints•Force Design Plan (Levels of Effect committed)• IIP $
Prioritisation Outputs
Capability ChangePortfolio
Capability Change/IIPUpdate
• Prioritised Force Options• One or many per Stream forgiven investment
3. IIP Update
Every 6 months
Prioritisation Inputs
‘Options’
Criteria• Execution-focused• Including timeliness
Criteria
‘Options’• IIP update options(advance/delay/etc)•Select one perProgramme
Constraints• Committed IIP milestones• Approval process
Prioritisation Outputs
IIP Update• Prioritised IIP updates• One schedule update/adjustment per programmeIIP Update
Feasibility Study Scope
DCAP
Force DesignDivision
Strategy and Concepts
19
Feasibility
In-service andDisposal
Risk Mitigation and RequirementSetting
Acquisition
10 2
Formal reporting loops:• FD reports misalignments• Gate reports used to update plans• FD and IPM Branch also monitorportfolio reporting throughout lifecycle(e.g. resources, schedules andcapability)
By-exception issues:• Identified misalignment to guidance• FD and Capability Manager developcorrective actions
Operational issues / lessons:• Capability Manager/Command/StreamLeader reports gaps/issues/surpluses• FD initiates JCN process to address
FD Information and data exists across the CLC
Joint Force Awareness (Preparedness,Dependencies, Availability, Task/MissionContribution, Performance, Integration &
Interoperability, Costings, Milestones, Forecasts,Upgrade & Change Options)
Joint Lessons, Doctrine &Concepts
Capability Manager (ProgramStrategy, Program Integrating Operational
Concept, Joint Capability Needs Statement,Performance Reporting, Issues Papers)
Government &Central Agencies Executive Guidance
(Secretary, CDF, Joint Capability Authority,Integrated Investment Program etc)
Industry, Academia andInnovation
(Studies, Papers, Reports, IndustrySubmissions, Innovation Programs,
International Engagements & Agreements)
Endorsed IIP(Progress, Performance, Cost,
Integration, Test & Evaluation)
Strategic Guidance(Defence White Paper, Defence PlanningGuidance, Australia’s Military Strategy)
Force Design
Force Design Informing Activities(Benefit Assessment, Studies, Modelling and
Simulation, Strategic Wargames, JointExperimentation, Options Testing, Program
Analysis, Annual Force Assessments, Deep Dives,Balance of Investment, Prioritisation and Sensitivity
Analysis, Strategic Analysis of Alternatives, CostEstimation)
Inputs to Force Design (2015 FPR Implementation)
Information Data
Strategic Guidance• DWP• DPG• AMSFSR Findings and Narratives• I2Program NarrativesJoint Capability NarrativesConceptsLessonsStudiesScenariosCap Dev DocsIssues PapersStakeholder G&O’s
• Budget• Budget Projections
Centre-Led Stream & Program Guidance• Stream Objectives and Assumptions• Concept Abilities• I2 Targets & C4I design• Dependencies and RelationshipsDefence Elements / Resources• Existing/Planned/Under consideration• Performance Parameters• Whole of life cost estimations• Key MilestonesProjects & Products• Dependencies• Option performance parameters• Option cost projections• Option MilestonesForce Assessments and Experimentation• Surpluses, Gaps & Opportunities• Risks• Issues• Evaluations of priorities
Building Decision Perspectives
Stream & Program Management
Functional Assessments
Dependency and Relationship Plans
Capability Assessment Program
Options Development andAnalysis (incl. I2 and Costing)
Prioritisation andBalance of Investment
Off-line Analysis, VisualisationModelling and Simulation
External Artefacts‘Centre Managed’ Artefacts
Methods & Tools
Legend
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