Employment and skills: research evidence for policy making Will Bartlett London School of Economics.

Employment and skills: research evidence for policy making

Will BartlettLondon School of Economics

Outline

• Impact of economic crisis on labour market• New methods to measure skill mismatch• Policy process• Evidence-based policy making (EBPM)• Conclusions• Forthcoming book (LSEE research network)

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Developments in the enlargement countries

• Enlargement countries severely affected by economic crisis

• Collapse of external financial inflows• Rising unemployment• Need for new growth model based on

improved competitiveness and labour skills• Need, therefore, for better and more effective

policy making

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Unemployment rate (LFS, 2009-11)

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Increase in unemployment rate, 2009-11

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Unemployment rate, Serbia, 2001-11

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New methods to measure skill mismatch

• Will Bartlett, Jens Johansen, Debora Gatelli, part of ETF ‘Match’ project

• Various indicators of skill mismatch:– Coefficient of variation– Variance of unemployment rate– Proportional measure of mismatch– Occupational measure - kurtosis– Beveridge curve analysis– Wage differentials across education levels

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Skill mismatch: coefficient of variation

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Skill mismatch by education level: Croatia (2005-10) (proportions)

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Skill mismatch by education level: Montenegro (2007-10)(proportions)

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Skill mismatch by education level: Serbia(2007-10)(proportions)

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Lifelong Learning (% adult population)

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Policy conclusions1) reform the secondary and vocational education systems2) improve the labour market matching for women workers

through provision of publicly provided nursery and kindergarten education for young children

3) give special encouragement to employers to take on younger skilled workers through job subsidies and internships

4) encourage transfer of skills from foreign owned companies to small domestic firms

5) Encourage employers to provide in-house training (LLL)6) provide of improved skill forecasts to professionals in

career and education guidance for adults as well as school leavers

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Evidence Based Policy Making

• Are studies such as this useful to policy makers?

• Do policy makers make use of research evidence?

• What are the drivers of policy making?• Are single studies reliable?• How can research studies be adapted to the

needs of policy makers?

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Policy process in ‘EU enlargement’ countries

• Policy process may differ from developed countries– Close links between politicians and business elite• state capture

– Lack of permanent civil service to transmit policy lessons

– Poor functioning of social councils– Little engagement of NGOs– Advocacy coalitions

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Policy transfer

• Governments often draw lessons from other countries

• What are the causes of policy failure?– Inappropriate conditionality– Inappropriate emulation– misaligned objectives between different actors

• Example: lifelong learning policies and EQL adoption (Alexander Kleibrink study)

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Evidence-based Policy Making (EBPM)

• Modern use of term originates in evidence-based medicine – extended to health policy

• UK Labour government 1997 announced modernisation of government based on EBPM

• Focus on “what works” irrespective of ideology

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Systematic reviews

• Systematic review as a method for EBPM• Policy makers lack time to assess the evidence• Individual studies insufficient to make

informed policy decisions• Synthesis of several studies is needed• Use well defined transparent procedures to

minimise bias

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Learning about systematic review• EPPI Centre - An Institute of Education centre focusing on

systematic reviews in education, health and social policy.• Campbell Collaboration - Independent organisation

producing systematic reviews on what works for education, health and social policy to build healthy and stable societies.

• Cochrane Collaboration - Independent organisations producing systematic reviews for health interventions.

• Collaboration for Environmental Evidence - Independent organisation producing systematic reviews for environmental management.

• International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie)

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Policy evaluation and pilot projects

• Evaluation of policies after they have been implemented

• Pilot programmes to test effectiveness• These several problems:– Too long time for effects to be revealed; policy

may be changed in meantime– Simultaneous effects of several pilots in action

areas may confound results– Hawthorn effects of ‘pioneering spirit’ of pilots

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Policy evaluation - alternatives

• Long-term evaluation of existing programmes– Best value regime for local government in UK

• Difference-in-difference method– Identify ‘treatment group’ versus ‘non-treatment

group’• Calculate differential response of different groups

to policy treatment (policy intervention)– Early tracking (Hanushek & Woessman, 2006)– Selective schooling (Bonhomme & Sauder, 2011)– Beautiful Serbia ALMP policy (Bonin & Rinne, 2006)

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Conclusions• Economic crisis emphasises need for EBPM for skills policy• Evidence-based policy widely promoted in developed

countries– Systematic reviews– Evaluation studies– But subject to critique

• Policy process in transition countries creates obstacles to use of EBPM

• Way forward: – Encourage use of systematic review – Difference in difference analyses of specific policies – But be aware of advocacy coalitions and state capture issues

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LSEE Research Network Book: Part I

• Chapter 2: Skill mismatch in enlargement and neighbourhood countries – Will Bartlett, Jens Johansen and Debora Gatelli

• • Chapter 3: Skill surveys in Serbia: an overview and a case

study - Mihail Arandarenko and Galjina Ognjanov • • Chapter 4: Skill needs on the labour market in Macedonia –

Jovan Pejkovski • • Chapter 5: Educational origins and occupational

destinations? Dissecting the education-job mismatch in school to work transitions in Croatia - Teo Matković

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LSEE Research Network Book: Part II

• Chapter 6: Lifelong learning policies in Southeastern Europe: from emulation of EU policies to tailor-made reforms? - Alexander Kleibrink

• • Chapter 7: Is government effective in promoting human capital? The

case of Macedonia - Maja Nestorovska and Nikica Mojsoska-Blazevski

• • Chapter 8: Skills matching in Croatian SME sector and competence-

based education and training: progress and prospects - Nevenka Čučković and Will Bartlett

• • Chapter 9: Reversing the Bosnian “brain drain”: opportunities and

challenges – Sasha Barnes and Nermin Oruc

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Thank you for your attention!!!

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