Emission projections for NEC Gases – Ireland’s approach Stephan Leinert, Bernard Hyde, Eimear Cotter.

Emission projections for NEC Gases –

Ireland’s approach

Stephan Leinert, Bernard Hyde, Eimear Cotter

Overview

Introduction General approach Transport Agriculture Solvents Conclusions

Approach to emissions projections for NEC gases

Consistency with national energy forecast

Consistency with GHG projections

Consistency with inventories (e.g. emission factors, car fleet mileage)

Emissions

Energy related: Power generation Road transport Industrial combustion Residential Commercial &

Institutional Services Fuel use in

agriculture

Non-energy related: Agriculture (NH3) Agriculture (NMVOC) Solvent emissions

Storage and distribution of oil products

Source category (green: non energy related) NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3

Energy Industries        

Power Generation X X X  

Oil Refining X X X  

Peat briquetting X X X  

Industry        

Industrial Combustion X X X  

Solvent and Other Product Use     X  

Transport        

Road Transport X X X X

Domestic and International Aviation (LTO’s) X X X  

Rail Transport X X X  

Navigation X X X  

Other Transport (Pipeline Compressors) X      

Residential X X X  

Commercial and Institutional Services X X X  

Agricultural Combustion X X X  

Storage and Distribution of Oil Products (Fugitive emissions)     X  

Agriculture        

Manure Management       X

Agricultural Soils     X X

Source categories for projections

Energy Forecast – Institutional/procedural arangements

ESRIEconomic and Social

Research Institute

SEISustainable Energy

Ireland

EPAEnvironmental Protection

Agency

ESRIEnergyForecast

ESRIMacroeconomic

ForecastSEI

National EnergyForecasts

Policy assumptions

EPA• Disaggregate fuel data• Apply emission factors

=> NEC projections

Emission Scenarios

With Measures emission projectionAll existing policies and measures

• Baseline energy forecast published December 2008 • Projected animal numbers – produced November 2008

With Additional Measures emission projectionAll existing and planned policies and measures

• White Paper energy forecast published December 2008

Economic Shock Sensitivity Analysis on With Measures scenario to show impact of the more recent economic deterioration

Assumptions underpinning Energy Forecasts

With Measures and With Additional Measures projectionsare both based on ESRI Credit Crunch Scenario (2008).

Economic Shockis based on a sensitivity study on the With Measures scenario, to give an indication of the impact of a further contraction in the economy

NOx inventories and projections

NOx / kt 1990 2007

Power Generation 46.37 27.03 -42%

Residential & Commercial 7.78 7.33 -6%

Industrial 9.79 19.37 98%

Agriculture & Forestry 9.37 10.99 17%

Transport 51.28 55.21 8%

Other 1.61 0.98 -39%

Total 126.22 120.91 -4%

Strong decrease in Powergen NOx emissions both absolute and as fraction of total; projected to continue

Increase of Transport NOx emissons both absolute and as fraction of total

Transport NOx emissions projected to decrease in absolute terms; will still be major contributing sector

Overview

Introduction General approach Transport Agriculture Solvents Conclusions

Road transport – general approach

Using COPERT 4, v6.1 Input: population, mileage etc Consistency with last year’s inventory –

e.g. mileage and speeds Consistency/agreement within about 1%

of statistical fuel consumption (energy forecast) and calculated fuel consumption (COPERT)

COPERT input – car population

Car fleet: Start from last inventories population Apply decay factor (function of age of car) Grow total in line with growth in fuel

usage (as a starting point) Newly registered cars as differential

between total car number and existing cars

Assume new cars meet the required standards

COPERT input – car population

2007: last inventory year

decay +20% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%

car fleet projection - decay rate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012year

nu

mb

er

car

s /

100

0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Firstregistration

inventory projection

COPERT input – car population

2007: last inventory year

decay +20% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%

fuel +5% 0% +5% +10% +5% +5%

car fleet projection - example

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012year

nu

mb

er

ca

rs /

10

00

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

Firstregistration

projection

COPERT input – LDV, HDV, bus, coach

LDV similar to cars HDV total number growth at fixed rate

(rather than in line with fuel forcast) Buses/coaches total number growth at

fixed rate (average over last few years)

Road transport – different scenarios

With Measures (Baseline) scenario is constructed first

With Additional Measures (White Paper) and Economic Shockare derived from With Measures scenario

using With Measures fleet populationadjusting mileage to achieve agreement

between statistical fuel use (energy forecast) and calculated fuel use (COPERT)

Road transport – challenges

Balance the aim for consistency with energy forecast, and consistency with e.g. inventory

Fuel tourism Data availability

Other transport

Rail is not included in the energy forecast. Emission projections are developed in consultation with Irish Rail.

Aviation not included in the energy forecast. Emission projections are developed in consultation with Dublin Airport Authority.

Navigation emissions are assumed to stay constant.

Agriculture“There are a lot of sheep in Ireland…”

Agriculture“There are a lot of sheep in Ireland…”

Reality is that cattle outnumber sheep – and NH3 emissions associated with cattle make up about 80% of NH3 emissions.

NH3 – Agriculture contribution

Almost all NH3 from agriculture Around 80% attributable to cattle, very stable Further decrease for total NH3 emissions

projected Fraction attributable to cattle staying at about

80%

NH3 / kt 1990 1999 2007

Cattle 90 100 84

Total 110 125 106

Approach – Projections Input Data

Projected animal numbers, crop areas and fertiliser use statisticsFAPRI – Ireland PartnershipFood and Agriculture Policy Research

Institute

Produce objective analysis of agricultural policy options based on economic models of commodity markets

Advantages of Irish Approach(Agriculture)

Use of inventory model to project forward

Data required and supplied generally at aggregation of the inventory

Transparent and straight-forward

Easy to implement sub-sector changes and examine scenarios

Overview

Introduction General approach Transport Agriculture Solvents Conclusions

Solvents and other product use

i. Paint applicationii. Degreasing and Dry CleaningPer capita emissions are assumed constant, thus growth in line with population growth.

iii. Chemical Productsiv. Other Solvent UsesPer capita emissions were declining since 1990 – trend assumed to go forward.

Overview

Introduction General approach Transport Agriculture Solvents Conclusions

Overall conclusions:Advantages of Irish Approach

Consistency with inventories/historic dataEmission factorsSame model (e.g. NH3 agriculture, road

traffic/COPERT)

Consistency with national energy forecast Consistency with GHG projections

Overall conclusions:Disadvantages of Irish Approach

Requires detailed activity data statistics (e.g. agriculture)

Transport projection is not straight forward

Fuel tourism causes conflict between Consistency with energy forecast for fuel and realistic car population/mileage

Energy forecast currently at aggregated level (no breakdown within fuel types yet)

Thank you for your attention.

Approach – Inventory Input Data

Cattle Sheep PoultryDairy cows Lowland ewes LayersSuckler cows Upland ewes BroilersMale cattle < 1 yearRams TurkeysMale cattle 1-2 years LambsMale cattle > 2 years Other livestockFemale cattle < 1 year Pigs HorsesFemale cattle 1-2 years Sows in pig Mules and AssesFemale cattle > 2 years Sows for breeding GoatsBulls for breeding Gilts in pigDairy in-calf heifers Gilts notyet served Other DataBeef in-calf heifers Fattening pigs < 20kg Manure Management statistics

Fattening pigs > 20kg Fertilzer use statisticsNH3 emission estimates

Sludge application to land