Box Elder 57,207 Carbon 21,628 Beaver 6,990 Salt Lake 1,164,859 Washington 187,878 Juab 12,635 Millard 13,884 Uintah 37,208 Sevier 22,414 W Summit 41,970 asatch 33,444 Grand 10,100 Kane 7,817 Iron 56,878 Duchesne 20,894 Piute 1,726 Wayne 2,768 Sanpete 31,494 Utah 670,844 Garfield 5,229 Emery 10,663 San Juan 16,769 Tooele 72,692 Cache 133,741 Rich 2,425 Weber 255,468 Davis 359,925 Morgan 12,422 Dagget 1,024 50,000 - 0 100,000 - 50,001 350,000 - 100,001 600,000 - 350,001 1,200,000 - 600,001 State and County Population Estimates for Utah: 2020 Emily Harris, Demographer, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Table of Contents Overview 1 A Note on 2020 1 Overall Population Change 3 Natural Increase 4 Net Migration 4 Conclusion 5 Appendix 6 Overview The Utah Population Committee (UPC), chaired by the Kem C Gardner Policy Institute, produced Utah’s state and county population estimates for July 1, 2020 The 2020 estimates are based on the most recent Decennial Census (2010) A Note on 2020 These estimates measure the period from July 1, 2019 through July 1, 2020. 75% of this timeframe experienced an economic expansion, and 25% of this period underwent the beginnings of a global pandemic and economic recession. The 2020 estimates utilize two data sources from before the pandemic and two data sources during the pandemic. Therefore, we simultaneously capture the pre and during COVID-19 time period, essentially reducing the impacts of both. The July 1, 2020 estimates will change between now and July 1, 2021 as we await the state 2020 enumeration (released end of December 2020) and the county enumeration (released in spring 2021). The forthcoming 2020 Decennial Census data release will serve as the baseline for population estimates moving forward. We will continue to provide updates as we create new intercensal estimates and updated postcensal estimates. These estimates indicate that the state added approximately 509,000 people since April 1, 2010, reaching an estimated 3,273,000 Utahns From 2019 to 2020, the population grew by 52,829 people This annual growth rate of 164% is barely lower than the previous year’s percent growth, 169% The 2020 estimates indicate that Utah’s moderate growth is maintaining a consistent pattern National and Utah births have declined annually since 2008 Utah’s 46,510 births in fiscal year 2020 are at the lowest level since 1999 Utah maintains one of the highest fertility rates in the nation However, Utah’s total fertility rate (2026 in 2018) is currently fourth to South Dakota (2154), North Dakota (2033), and Nebraska (2031) 1 Utah’s net migration increased again, now at 25,256 and slightly above last year’s estimate by 247 Net migration contributed 35% of Utah’s population growth since 2010 Kem C Gardner Policy Institute I 411 East South Temple Street, Salt Lake City, Utah 84111 I 801-585-5618 I gardnerutahedu Research Brief December 2020 Figure 1: County Population Estimates, 2020 Source: Utah Population Committee, Kem C Gardner Policy Institute
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Emily Harris, Demographer, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute · 2020. 12. 3. · 10,100 Kane 7,817 Iron 56,878 Duch esn 20,894 Piute 1, 726 Wayne 2, 68 Sanpete 31,494 Utah 670,844 Gar˜eld
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OverviewThe Utah Population Committee (UPC), chaired by the Kem
C . Gardner Policy Institute, produced Utah’s state and county population estimates for July 1, 2020 . The 2020 estimates are based on the most recent Decennial Census (2010) .
A Note on 2020These estimates measure the period from July 1, 2019 through
July 1, 2020. 75% of this timeframe experienced an economic expansion, and 25% of this period underwent the beginnings of a global pandemic and economic recession. The 2020 estimates utilize two data sources from before the pandemic and two data sources during the pandemic. Therefore, we simultaneously capture the pre and during COVID-19 time period, essentially reducing the impacts of both.
The July 1, 2020 estimates will change between now and July 1, 2021 as we await the state 2020 enumeration (released end of December 2020) and the county enumeration (released in spring 2021). The forthcoming 2020 Decennial Census data release will serve as the baseline for population estimates moving forward. We will continue to provide updates as we create new intercensal estimates and updated postcensal estimates.
These estimates indicate that the state added approximately 509,000 people since April 1, 2010, reaching an estimated 3,273,000 Utahns . From 2019 to 2020, the population grew by 52,829 people . This annual growth rate of 1 .64% is barely lower than the previous year’s percent growth, 1 .69% . The 2020
estimates indicate that Utah’s moderate growth is maintaining a consistent pattern .
National and Utah births have declined annually since 2008 . Utah’s 46,510 births in fiscal year 2020 are at the lowest level since 1999 . Utah maintains one of the highest fertility rates in the nation . However, Utah’s total fertility rate (2 .026 in 2018) is currently fourth to South Dakota (2 .154), North Dakota (2 .033), and Nebraska (2 .031) .1 Utah’s net migration increased again, now at 25,256 and slightly above last year’s estimate by 247 . Net migration contributed 35% of Utah’s population growth since 2010 .
Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute I 411 East South Temple Street, Salt Lake City, Utah 84111 I 801-585-5618 I gardner .utah .edu
Research Brief December 2020
Figure 1: County Population Estimates, 2020
Source: Utah Population Committee, Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute
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Figure 2: Utah’s Population and Annual Growth Rates, 2010-2020
* Change calculated from April 1, 2010 Census Decennial Count to July 1, 2020 UPC Estimate Notes: All UPC data are dated July 1 of the calendar year . 2017-2019 revisions occurred due to updated vital records data and Daggett County Jail closureSources: U .S . Census Bureau (April 1, 2010); Utah Population Committee, Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute (2010-2020)
Source: Utah Population Committee, Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute
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Utah County experienced the highest numeric annual increase this year with 19,437 new residents or 2 .98% growth . This is the highest annual growth for Utah County this decade, with more than half of their growth from net migration . This increase is much higher than Salt Lake County’s 11,899 population increase (or 1 .03% growth), which is up from last year’s population growth . Figure 1 displays the 2020 county population estimates .
Certain Wasatch Front counties, Utah and Tooele , and the two main southwestern counties, Washington and Iron counties, experienced the fastest growth this year . Approximately half of Utah’s counties had higher natural increase compared to last year .
Overall Population ChangeUtah continues to experience strong population growth,
though slightly leveled off since last year (see Figure 2) . Nationally, the Census Bureau ranked Utah first in cumulative population growth since 2010, with 15 .5% growth2 . Historically, natural increase dominated the state’s total population growth . In 2020, positive net migration contributed the largest annual share of the state’s population growth this decade, 48%, as natural increase continues to decline for the seventh year in a row .
Several counties are experiencing significant growth . These include Utah County, at 2 .98% and third fastest growth in the state, and Tooele County at 2 .54%, ranked fifth . However, Washington County experienced the highest population percentage increase for the second year in a row at 4 .06%, with Iron County being the other southwestern state with fast growth at 2 .67% (see Figure 3) .
Net migration is the main source of population increase in these high growth counties . Historically, the majority of Utah County’s growth is due to natural increase . However, this is the second year in this decade that net migration, not natural increase, has been its major source of population growth .
If we examine the data and growth through the whole decade, these trends are consistent with the Census Bureau’s 2019 county and metropolitan estimates . Wasatch County was ranked third in the nation for fastest cumulative growth since 2010, with 44 .9% growth . St . George was ranked as the fifth fastest growing metropolitan area in the country, Provo-Orem metropolitan area was ranked ninth, and the Cedar City micropolitan area was nationally ranked fourth in annual percent growth .3
Only two counties have estimated population loss: Duchesne and Grand counties . Both counties have positive natural increase, indicating that their annual population decline is due to more people migrating out of, rather than into, the counties .
Table 1: UPC Population Estimates- State and Counties, 2010-2020
* Change calculated from April 1, 2010 Census Decennial Count to July 1, 2020 UPC Estimate Notes: All UPC data are dated July 1 of the calendar year . 2017-2019 revisions occurred due to updated vital records data and Daggett County Jail closureSources: U .S . Census Bureau (April 1, 2010); Utah Population Committee, Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute (2010-2020)
Figure 3: Absolute and Percentage Changes in County Population, 2019-2020
Source: Utah Population Committee, Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute
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Natural IncreaseNatural increase is the number of annual births minus annual
deaths . Since July 1, 2010, Utah has experienced an annual decline in natural increase, a result of annual births declining while annual deaths increase . Overall national trends during this same period depict a declining fertility rate significantly impacted by the Great Recession (see Figure 4) . Utah’s total fertility rate fell from 2 .45 in 2010 to below replacement level (2 .03) in 2018 . 4 Both national and state total deaths are increasing as median ages rise .
Cumulative natural increase accounts for approximately two-thirds of Utah’s population increase since 1990 . 5 However, since 2013, natural increase has steadily reduced its share of population growth . Currently, natural increase accounts for 52% of annual population growth in Utah, down from 77% of annual growth in 2011 .
Most Utah counties are also experiencing declining natural increase . Of Utah’s 29 counties, only three have seen a cumulative increase in births since 2010: Kane, Piute, and Wasatch . Conversely, 25 of the 29 counties have experienced an increase in deaths
since 2010 (only Beaver, Emery, Piute, and Wayne counties have not) . Interestingly, for the first time in Utah’s recorded history, Utah County surpassed Salt Lake County in natural increase . Salt Lake County has significantly more births than Utah County, but also significantly more deaths, leading to lower natural increase . This is an example of how differing age structures can have a large impact on population growth dynamics .
Demographers expect this trend to continue, though age waves introduced by surges of in-migration of young adults may mitigate the extent of declining natural increase periodically in the future . We also anticipate a higher number of deaths in 2021 due to COVID-19, leading to a sharper decline in natural increase if births do not increase .
Net MigrationNet migration is gross in-migration (people moving into the
state or a county) minus gross out-migration (people moving out of the state or a county) . Migration is historically more volatile than natural increase . Positive net migration is often an indicator of favorable economic conditions, particularly in
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the country’s western states .6 The other source of population growth, natural increase, is more stable from year to year .
Net migration contributed 48% of Utah’s population growth over the past year, up from 47% of state growth the year before . Utah’s net migration for 2020, 25,256, is 247 more than last year’s estimate . This is the 6th consecutive year that net migration has been above 20,000 .
County net migration levels vary according to economic conditions and amenities of each county . More than half of Utah’s counties receive the majority of their growth from net in-migration . Statewide, total net in-migration is greatest in Utah County (10,531), with it’s second highest recorded net in-migration in history (2006 was the highest with 10,574) . Net migration is consistently (over the last five years) the largest share of population growth in Washington, Tooele, Morgan, and Iron counties (see Table 5 in the Appendix) . Eight counties experienced net out-migration in the past year: Beaver, Davis, Duchesne, Emery, Garfield, Grand, Summit, and Uintah
ConclusionUtah closed out the decade with another year of strong
population growth, a consistent pattern since 2013, although this growth has mostly stabilized since 2018 . The Wasatch Front and southwestern Utah continue to expand and bring migrants from other regions . Net migration is contributing the majority of growth in the fastest growing counties in the state, such as Utah, Washington, Tooele, and Iron counties, a notable shift in sources of growth for Utah County in particular . Natural increase remains positive, and contributes more than half of the state’s population growth, but continues to decline across the state and nation .
These estimates come during a global pandemic that impacts our data, methods, and assumptions . The UPC has had to modify the data and estimates process to attempt to accurately reflect the period between July 1, 2019 and July 1, 2020 . This estimate closes out the post-censal estimates produced before the newest Decennial Census data is released in 2021 . Once we acquire the April 1, 2020 population count, the UPC will revise the July 1, 2020 estimates by using the new 2020 benchmark .
About the Utah Population Committee (UPC)The Utah Population Committee (UPC) prepares state and
county-level estimates of the usual, resident population for the state of Utah . State statute determines UPC membership composition and utilization of the committee produced population estimates . The Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute chairs and provides technical staff for the committee . The U .S . Census Bureau produces national, state, and county-level estimates annually, but their methods lack a contextual understanding of each state . This motivates many states, including Utah, to calculate their own set of estimates in order to create a more precise view and explanation of population change each year . For more information about UPC’s population estimates methodology, please reference UPC’s separate estimates methodology document .7
Utah Population Committee (UPC) MembersPamela Perlich, UPC Chair, Kem C. Gardner Policy InstituteAaron Brough, Utah State Board of EducationEvan Curtis, Governor’s Office of Management and BudgetDavid Landward, Dominion EnergyJacoba Larsen, Utah State Tax CommissionSojung Lim, Utah State UniversityCarrie Mayne, Utah System of Higher EducationCollin Peterson, Department of Workforce ServicesJohn Sagers, Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day SaintsAndrea Wilko, Office of the Legislative Fiscal AnalystLinda Wininger, Utah Department of Health
About the Kem C. Gardner Policy InstituteThe Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah
enhances Utah’s economy by placing data-driven research into the hands of decision makers . Its mission is to develop and share economic, demographic, and public policy data and research that help community leaders make informed decisions . Learn more at gardner .utah .edu or by calling 801-587-3717
Endnotes1 . Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK . Births: Final data for 2018 . National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 68, no 13 . Hyattsville, MD: National Center for
Health Statistics . 2019 .2 . Vintage 2019 Population Estimates, July 1, 2018 to July 1, 2019 . United States Census Bureau .3 . Vintage 2019 Population Estimates, July 1, 2018 to July 1, 2019 . United States Census Bureau .4 . Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Driscoll AK . Births: Final data for 2018 . National Vital Statistics Reports; vol 68, no 13 . Hyattsville, MD: National Center for
Health Statistics . 2019 .5 . Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute . (2016) . Utah Demographics Fact Sheet . DOI: http://www .gardner .utah .edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Fact-Sheet .pdf . 6 . Li, W .L . 1976 . A Note on Migration and Employment . Demography 13(4): 565-570 .7 . Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute . (2016) . Utah Population Committee Methodology . Salt Lake City, UT: Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah . DOI:
Notes: All UPC data are dated July 1 of the calendar year . 2019 revisions occurred due to updated vital records data . Counties may not sum to state due to births that aren’t assigned to a specific county*Annual births are the previous fiscal year total (i .e . 2010 total births equals births occuring from July 1, 2009 through June 30, 2010) .Source: Utah Department of Health
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Table 3: Annual Deaths- State and Counties, 2010-2020
Notes: All UPC data are dated July 1 of the calendar year . 2019 revisions occurred due to updated vital records data . Counties may not sum to state due to deaths that aren’t assigned to a specific county*Annual deaths are the previous fiscal year total (i .e . 2010 total deaths equals deaths occuring from July 1, 2009 through June 30, 2010) .Source: Utah Department of Health
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Table 4: Annual Natural Increase- State and Counties, 2010-2020
Notes: All UPC data are dated July 1 of the calendar year . 2019 revisions occurred due to updated vital records data . Counties may not sum to state due to vital records that aren’t assigned to a specific county*Annual Natural Increase is the previous fiscal year total (i .e . 2010 total natural increase equals births minus deaths occuring from July 1, 2009 through June 30, 2010) .Source: Utah Department of Health
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Table 5: Annual Net Migration- State and Counties, 2010-2020
Notes: All UPC data are dated July 1 of the calendar year . 2017-2019 revisions occurred due to updated vital records data and Daggett County Jail closure . County values may not sum to state due to net migration that isn’t assigned to a specific county .* Due to the residual calculation of net migration, estimated net migration in 2010 is from the April 1, 2010 Census Decennial Count through July 1, 2010 .Source: Utah Population Committee, Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute
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Table 6: Annual Change- State and Counties, 2010-2020
Notes: All UPC data are dated July 1 of the calendar year . 2017-2019 revisions occurred due to updated vital records data and Daggett County Jail closureSource: Utah Population Committee, Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute
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Table 7: Annual Percent Change- State and Counties, 2010-2020
Notes: All UPC data are dated July 1 of the calendar year . 2017-2019 revisions occurred due to updated vital records data and Daggett County Jail closureSource: Utah Population Committee, Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute
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Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute I 411 East South Temple Street, Salt Lake City, Utah 84111 I 801-585-5618 I gardner .utah .edu
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Staff and AdvisorsLeadership TeamNatalie Gochnour, Associate Dean and DirectorJennifer Robinson, Associate DirectorShelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance ManagerColleen Larson, Administrative ManagerDianne Meppen, Director of Survey ResearchPamela S . Perlich, Director of Demographic ResearchJuliette Tennert, Chief EconomistNicholas Thiriot, Communications Director James A . Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow
StaffMax Backlund, Senior Research AssociateSamantha Ball, Senior Research AssociateMallory Bateman, Senior Research Analyst Andrea Brandley, Research AssociateMarin Christensen, Research Associate Mike Christensen, Scholar-in-ResidenceJohn C . Downen, Deputy Director of Economic
and Public Policy ResearchDejan Eskic, Senior Research AnalystEmily Harris, DemographerMichael T . Hogue, Senior Research StatisticianMike Hollingshaus, Senior DemographerThomas Holst, Senior Energy Analyst
Meredith King, Research Associate Jennifer Leaver, Senior Tourism AnalystLevi Pace, Senior Research EconomistShannon Simonsen, Research CoordinatorJoshua Spolsdoff, Research Economist Paul Springer, Senior Graphic DesignerLaura Summers, Senior Health Care AnalystNatalie Young, Research Analyst
Senior AdvisorsJonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal AnalystGary Cornia, Marriott School of BusinessTheresa Foxley, EDCUtahDan Griffiths, Tanner LLCRoger Hendrix, Hendrix ConsultingJoel Kotkin, Chapman UniversityDarin Mellott, CBREChris Redgrave, Zions BankBud Scruggs, Cynosure GroupWesley Smith, Western Governors University
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Advisory BoardConvenersMichael O . LeavittMitt Romney
BoardScott Anderson, Co-ChairGail Miller, Co-ChairDoug AndersonDeborah BayleCynthia A . BergRoger BoyerWilford ClydeSophia M . DiCaro
Cameron DiehlLisa EcclesSpencer P . EcclesChristian GardnerKem C . GardnerKimberly GardnerNatalie GochnourBrandy GraceClark IvoryMike S . LeavittDerek MillerAnn MillnerSterling Nielsen
Cristina OrtegaJason PerryRay PickupGary B . PorterTaylor RandallJill Remington LoveJosh RomneyCharles W . SorensonJames Lee SorensonVicki VarelaRuth V . WatkinsTed Wilson
Ex Officio (invited)Governor Gary HerbertSpeaker Brad WilsonSenate President
Stuart AdamsRepresentative Brian KingSenator Karen MayneMayor Jenny WilsonMayor Erin Mendenhall
Partners in the Community The following individuals and entities help support the research mission of the Kem C . Gardner Policy Institute .
Legacy PartnersThe Gardner CompanyIntermountain HealthcareClark and Christine Ivory FoundationKSL and Deseret NewsLarry H . & Gail Miller Family FoundationMountain America Credit UnionMitt and Ann RomneySalt Lake City CorporationSalt Lake CountyUniversity of Utah HealthUtah Governor’s Office of Economic Development
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