Emerging+Trends+2010+Through+2015

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Emerging Trends: 2010 Through 2015

December 2005

Young-Jin Kim



Innovation: Look for the Impact

Linux

Wikis

Speech Recognition

Grid ComputingTablet PC

InformationExtraction

Location-AwareServices

Computer-

BrainInterface

Semantic Web

Service-OrientedArchitecture

UnifiedCommunications

Ultra Wide Band

RFID

SocialNetworkAnalysis

Web-Services-Enabled BusinessModels

Electronic Ink/Digital Paper

WebServices

InstantMessaging

VoIP

Sensor Networks

Smartphone

Really SimpleSyndication

Augmented RealityTruthVerification

4G Wireless

Blogging

Podcasting

IP Television

LocationSensing

ObjectIdentification

Identity/AccessManagement

EmergingTechnologies

EmergingCapabilities

Design Innovation

ProactiveTransparency

Personalized

Pricing

Counterfeit Reality CollectiveIntelligence Perfect Recall

Real-Time Enterprise

UbiquitousAccess

Smart Objectsand AmbientIntelligence

Privacy Redefined

Global Sourcing

BusinessProcessManagement

Voice/DataConvergence

Microcommerce

Self-sufficiency

Greenfield

Business

Global Micro-business

Seamless Service

to Self-service

Feedback Society

Emerging

Business Models

More:Granular

Distributed

PermanentVisibleContextual

SemanticConnectivity



Client Issues

1.Which emerging and embryonic technologiesshould organizations be examining for

competitive advantage?

2.What are the most disruptive trends and mostsignificant opportunities arising from emerginginformation technology?

3.What are the most effective strategies and

tactics for managing the evaluation, transfer anddeployment of emerging technologies?



Three Mega Technology TrendsUbiquitous Access

Wireless: Seamless

Domain Roaming Wearables

Smartphones

Fuel CellsUltrawideband

Smart Objects andAmbient Intelligence

Object

Identification

RFID

MEMS

Sensor

Networks

LocationSensing

Semantic

Web

Information ExtractionXBRL

Semantic Connectivity

Affinity Profiles

Automatic Tagging

E-Ink,

LEPs,

OLEDs

Speech

Recognition



Smart objects drive smarter decisions:Safety compliance and notification

Item trackingProactive healthcare

What should objects know?Identity, location, owner, history, safety,

environment …

Product + connectivity = service:Risk-based insurance

Traffic routing

People tracking

The Real World Web

Challenges:Security and privacy risks

Managing the data flood



Power of the Web at pointof decision

Merging of the physical anddigital worlds

Virtual objects in the real world(games, coupons)

Telepresencehealthcare

commercecommunity

Location specificmilitary

factory quality

street signs

Object specificequipment repair

healthcare

service check-in

Person specificname reminder

hotel/airport check-in

Augmented Reality



Digital trails: audio,video, transactions,decision paths

Passive capture:no explicit actionby users

Cheaper to keepeverything: write once,read never memory

Removes subjectivity

The power of

visual replayProof of actionsshifts responsibility

Promotes honesty

and politeness?

Value to Existing Industries:

Healthcare — new diagnostic models

Physical security — live video feeds

Insurance — settlement, risk assessment

Education and entertainment — “being there”Marketing — life patterns

New Businesses:

Owning the log

Creating “clean” rooms

Creating/detectingcounterfeit reality

Perfect Recall



Better Sense-Making

Search& AnalyticsMore

SensorsApplications

DevicesStorage

BandwidthIntegration

From Information to Insight

MoreDATA

Decisions

Automation

Metadata Tagging

Inter-

operability

DescribeData Better

KnowledgePresentation

Business Intelligence

Cost SavingsNew Things

Content Management



LocalPermanentHigh interactionSmall membership

Low interaction,

large membershipWeb sites, e-mail,blogs

ImplicitMining the network —Google, AmazonSocial network analysis

GlobalExtending the enterprise— Innocentive, TopCoder

CollectiveWikis

Above the radar for enterprisesNew sources of opportunity andliability – Instant Messaging, VoIP

On-demandExpertise location

Exploiting Technology-Enabled

Communities



“None of us is as smart as all of us”

Collaboration:wikis/wikipedia.org

Prediction markets:product selection,employee evaluation?

Metadata creation:trust and recommendationengines, link analysis

A

S t o c k

P r i c e s

J

B

C

I

H GF

D

E

100

Marks

Milestone

Date

“Will product A/B/C … passall minimum standards of the next milestone?”

Adapted from Dr. Carol Gebert

Incentive Markets

$100.00

Harvesting Collective Intelligence

Issues:

Determining scope of applicability

Migrating from procedural workflow

Recognizing reward systemsLinear process flow

Collective process flow



Mobile Paymentse.g., Vodafone, Simpay

Web E-paymentse.g., PayPal, Click&Buy

E-paymentsystems

Microproducts& microservices

New things to buyand sell

New ways to sell old

things (but potentiallymore of them!)

New business models(mobile auctions)

Combines with e-ticketingand e-couponing

New customer touchpoints imply

new relationshipsand intermediaries

Microcontente.g., weather, music tracks,news, articles, ring tones

Microservices

e.g., parking reservation,routing, dispatching

Decreasing Transaction Costs

Linking buyers & sellers:

pervasive connectivity,devices, ease of use

Time/location/context-

dependent commerce

From E-commerce to Microcommerce



Microcommerce Brings Opportunities

Definition: A product or service at a price of less than $5

Consumer characteristics

– Convenience, in purchase or as part of service – Low trigger level and easily leads to impulse buying

– Value increases when offered at point or time of need

Opportunities for sellers and for processors

Examples

iTunes music downloads

ebay auctions of small items

Smartcards – HK Octopus

Mobile taxi reservation UK

Paypal for payments

Mobile retail purchases - NTT

Five Elements of Microcommerce

Business proposition

Transaction

Micropayment

Channels, e.g. delivery

Aggregation and payment services



Unbundling Business Processes

Eliminate:

Re-keying data

Automate – credit check,RFID tag read

Outsource to specialist:

Web conferencing, calling-card risk

Outsource down the supply chain:

Claim adjustment, electronic

deposits

Decreasing the granularity of tasks eases transfer of

responsibility from one stake-holder to another

Service-orientedarchitecture

Supply chainecosystems

Exchanges andmarketplaces

Self-service:

Customer service repto customer – kiosks,

IVR, self-checkout

Self sufficiency:

Specialist to consumer

– diagnosis, health

management

Increasing complexity of taskSimple Complex

EmergingEmerging

OpportunitiesOpportunities



Hovering on the Edge of Impact

Robots

Driving, jogging, dancing,

interacting and vacuumingtheir way into society

Distinguishing many

signals is a challenge

Implanted electrodes

still work best

Things we still won’t have by 2015Unconstrained natural language speech recognition (Star Trek style)

Intelligent agents worth spending time with

Remote virtual meetings as effective as face-to-face meetings

Smarter humans

Domain-specific

From grammar-based

to corpus-models

Speech-to-Speech Translation

Computer Brain Interfaces



CEO Views About Revenue Growth

B

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

NotConfidentAt All

Not Very

Confident

SomewhatConfident

VeryConfident

2004

2003

2002

*How Would You Assess Your Level of Confidence for the

Revenue Growth of Your Company Over the Next 12 Months?

*Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers 8th Annual CEO Survey

4.1%3.4%

5%

0%

WW GDPGrowth

WW IT BudgetGrowth

2.5%1.4%

2005

2004 2004 20052005



FinancialServices

Healthcare /

Pharma

HighTechnology

Government

Insurance

3.2%

3.7%

6.5%

3.0%

2.9%

4.9%Manufacturing

5% 10%0%

3.4%

2.4%

4.5%

1.6%

2.7%

2.8%

Projected 2005Business GrowthSource: Global Insight January 2004

Projected 2005IT Budget GrowthSource: Gartner EXP CIO Survey

Comparison of Economic, Business and IT

Growth in Selected Segments 2005 vs. 200



When to Stop Investing in Today’s

Enterprise Applications?

When to set aside continuing, incremental

investment in current enterprise applications and

platforms — creating a zero-base plan for the

Business Process Platform.

2010 20152005

BusinessPerformanceBusiness

Agility

Higher

Lower

Aggressive Balanced Conservative

Application-Oriented ERP/SCM/CRM

Business Process Platform



When to Change the Way Your Business

Communicates?

Presence

SMS

Voice

Mail

Instant

Messaging

E-Mail

WebConferencing

UnifiedComm.

Video-Conferencing

Audio-Conferencing

Voice(IP Telephony)

Frame

Relay

MPLS

Internet

PSTN

WirelessNetworks

ATM

Speech AccessCollaboration + a lot more

BusinessCommunicationsTools

Start with IP Telephony and VoIP – then look to integratecommunications needs with Unified Communications solutions



Problem: Sea of Data

Solution: Tera-Architectures

ForcesCompliance records

Data mining and forecastsVoice and video

Sensor networks and RFID

Labor-capital imbalance

StandardizationAutolocation

Data Will Increase 10X…every 5 years

Whatever your budget, you will alwaysneed more IT staff than you think!

TechnologiesScale-out architectures

Service-oriented architecturesNetwork self-assembly

Hardware virtualization

Service virtualization

Autolocation



Bluetooth MEMS Real-time DW GridLinux WiMax Smartphones CRMPortals iSCSI SANs IP Telephony Utility computing

Instant Messaging SCM Opteron NanocomputingXBRL UWB Software as Services Zibgee

Ontologies Real-Time Infrastructure Mobile applications Microcommerce

Natural Language Search Micro fuel cells RFID Tags e-ink

Metadata management Speech recognition 802.11g Trusted Platforms

OLED/LEP Wikis Mesh networks Camera PhonesTablet PCs IT self-service Information extraction MMS

4G wireless Taxonomies Semantic Web Smart dust

Unified communications Location-aware services

Top 10 Strategic Technologies 2006

Maturing within 36 monthsMission Critical Linux

Software as servicesInstant messaging

Grid

Partial value next three yearsRFID tagsMicrocommerce

Real-time infrastructureMesh networks

Location-aware servicesOLED/LEP displays

STREET E i T h l Pl i



STREET Emerging Technology Planning

Process

Scope

Transfer

Track

Evangelize

Knowledge transfer

People transfer Monitor success

Technology drivers

(risks, costs), and their dynamics

Best practices andcase studies

Listen! Network!

Discuss! Advertise!

Get funding!

Business objectives

Market forces Competitive intelligence Understand business

Create innovativeapplication scenarios

1

5S t r e e t T o S u c

c e s s

6

Rank Different potential projects

Via scorecards Via radar screens

Evaluate

Internal champions

Prototyping Piloting

42

3



Focusing Innovation Initiatives

Key Business Trends

Globalization Outsourcing

Mobile workforce

Refine/renew business model

Speed product development

Increase market share

Persistent Business Needs

High cost structure

Product obsolescence

Customer runoff

Immediate BusinessProblems

Operational excellence Customer intimacy

Product leadership

Brand mastery

Value Discipline

Design skill in xxx

Knowledge of xxx

Core Competencies

T h l Pl i D ’t J t Rid



Technology Planning: Don’t Just Ride

the Hype Cycle

Acronym KeyLEP Light-emitting po lymer

MPP Massively parallel processingOLED Organic light-emitting diodeRFID Radio frequency identificationUWB Ultrawideband

VoIP Voice over Internet protocol

Wi-Fi Wireless fidelityWiMAX Worldwide interoperability for

microwave access

XBRL Extensible business reporting

language

TechnologyTrigger

Peak of InflatedExpectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope of Enlightenment

Plateau of Productivity

Maturity

VisibilityLess than two years

Two to five years

Five to 10 years

More than 10 years

Key: Time to Plateau

As of July 2004

802.16d WiMAX

Augmented Reality

Electronic Ink/Digital Paper

External MPP Grids

Information Extraction

Instant Messaging

InternalMPPGrids

Internal Web Services

LEPs/OLEDs

Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business

Users

Location“Aware”Services

Mesh Networks — Sensor Mesh Networks — Wide Area

Really Simple Syndication

RFID (Case/Pallet)RFID (Item)

Semantic Web

Service-Oriented Architecture

Smartphone

Social Network AnalysisSpeech

Recognition for

Telephony andCall Center

Tablet PC

Trusted Computing Group

Truth Verification

Unified Communications

UWB/803.15.3a/WiMedia

VoIP

Web-Services-Enabled Business Models

Wi-FiHot

Spots

Wikis

Inkjet Processes

Micro Fuel Cells

Protein-DNA Logic

Computer-Brain Interface/Thought Recognition

Molecular Transistors

Speech Recognition for Mobile Devices



From Hype to Impact

Less than 2 years 2-5 years 5-10 years Beyond 10 years

MATURITY

Linux on Desktop for Mainstream BusinessUsers

802.16d WiMAX

Wikis

Speech Recognitionfor Mobile Devices

Internal MPPGrids

Speech Recognition for Telephony and CallCenter

External MPPGrids

Tablet PCInformationExtraction

Location "Aware"Services

Computer-BrainInterface/Thought Recognition

Semantic Web

Service-OrientedArchitecture

Unified Communications

UWB/803.15.3a/WiMedia

RFID (Case/Pallet)

SocialNetworkAnalysis

Web-Services-EnabledBusiness Models

RFID (Item)

T r a n s f o r m a t i o n a l

Electronic Ink/DigitalPaper

InternalWebServices

InstantMessaging

VoIP

Mesh Networks —

Sensor

Smartphones

L o w

Really SimpleSyndication

Augmented Reality

TruthVerification

I M P A C T

HOT SPOT

ICE BOX



Recommendations

Identify the focal points for innovation in your company: where will the risk be justified?

Examine the disruptive potential from ubiquitousaccess, ambient intelligence and semanticconnectivity.

Scan broadly for trends, technologies, driversand case studies that target the focal points.

Create a full-time emerging technology group.

“Thus, the task is not so much to see what no one yet has

seen, but to think what nobody yet has thought about that

which everybody sees.”Arthur Schopenhauer



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2005 2010

Different Time,

Different Place

Same Time,

Different Place

Same Time,Same Place

Working Alone

Work Styles

Percentage of

Work Product

That Will Depend

on Group Input

What Shapes Performance?The Rise of Virtual Collaboration



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Hybrid

Engagement

TraditionalTraditional Model

Single Employer,

Single Assignment

Engagement ModelMultiple Employers,

Multiple Assignments

Hybrid Model

Single Employer,Multiple Assignments

Now

What Shapes Performance?New Employment Models

2010200520001995

Emerging+Trends+2010+Through+2015

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