Emerging Trends in Commercial Refrigeration; What ...

Emerging Trends in Commercial Refrigeration; What Stakeholders ThinkJim Kelsey, PEkW Engineering

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To qualify for a Certificate of Completion, learners must:1.) Be in attendance for the duration of the activity.2.) Send your PDH Recording Form to IIAR or fill it out on the IIAR Annual

Conference app.

Learning Objectives

After attending this activity, participants will be able to…

• Identify the leading retrofit options for reducing GWP, their pros and cons

• Identify trends in new commercial refrigeration system options for low GWP refrigerants

• Compare modeling options in commercial refrigeration systems

Acknowledgements

Thanks to:

• NASRC• Pacific Gas and Electric• Southern California Edison

What we’ll cover

• Market survey method• Trends in new construction• Trends in retrofits• Cost and policy pressures• Modeling options

Market survey – what we did

Goals1. Estimate the impact of new regs in CA on Energy Efficiency2. Determine the need/demand for modeling tools

Conducted interviews with industry participants• Owners/operators (making up about 25% of the CA supermarket) • Vendors• Design engineers / consultants• Policymakers

Owners / Operators

46%

Engineers / Consultants

39%

Policymakers15%

Participants

1. Existing Store Make-up

Mos

t com

mon

Vast Majority of stock using traditional approaches

> 95

%

Configuration Heat Rejection Refrigerants

Multiplex / Parallel Air-cooled HCFC / HFC

Multiplex / Parallel Water-cooled HCFC / HFC

Distributed compressors Water-cooled HCFC / HFC

Singles Air-cooled HCFC / HFC

Multiplex / Parallel Air-cooled 448 / 449

CO2 TC / CO2 booster Adiabatic CO2

2. New Construction Trends• Larger chains are

“experimenting” with naturals and low-GWP

• Expect slow growth ~ 1%• “overbuilt”

HFOs 448, 44916%

Cascade CO2/NH3

16%

CO2 TC47%

Propane/HCs21%

Design preferences – Low GWP Options

3. Retrofit Trends

• Many choosing 448 / 449 as the only practical retrofit option

• Doing a few stores to gain experience

• Will not do many of those until required

Retrofit Options

GWP < 150• New everything!• Compressors• Cases / Fixtures• Heat Rejection• $$$

GWP < 1500• For compatible existing

equipment HFO Blends• Relatively affordable• Good energy performance• Relatively modest reduction in

GWP ~ 60%• Still have high volumes, leaks

For non-compatible existing equipment ???Incentive to “run existing equipment into the ground” ?

Common Interview Comments

“Need for workforce education and training w/ naturals”

“Desire for market focus / clarity / options we can bet on”

“There’s still a lot of R-22 out there”

“Why go to GWP of 1500, the regs will likely ratchet downward. Just go to near zero and be done with it.”

Regulatory Pressures in CA

• New CARB rules likely to rule prior to Kigali ratification in US

• SB 1383 (2016) commits to 40% HFC reductions by 2030

• SB 1013 establishes Fluorinated Gases Emission Reduction Incentive Program

• HFCs in new and retrofit (>1500) banned Jan 2019• Requires CPUC to develop low GWP in equipment

funded by energy efficiency programs • CARB: Proposed no new install GWP>150 in 2022

CPUC is limited in what it can credit for energy efficiency to gains not

already “counted”

15

How The Commission Meets Its Legislative Mandate

Naturally Occurring

SavingsIOU Program

Savings

Codes & Standards / Industry Standard

Practice

Energy savings in demand forecast

All unmet efficiency market potential

Free ridership

Double counted free ridership

Forecasted savingsthat did not occur

The CPUC contracts consultants to identify all potential energy saving available, establish savings goals for the program administrators to achieve, and works with CEC to ensure that the savings are accurately forecasted, including naturally occurring and savings from codes and standards. California Public Utilities Commission 16

Codes & Standards / Industry Standard Practice

time

Actually it’s a pipeline that looks like

Experience from Europe

“The market didn’t move until 1 or 2 big chains moved, then it tipped.”

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Stor

es in

CA

(app

rox)

remaining HFC stores # low GWP

Can we get there?

Even with bold assumptions, a 40% reduction will be tough

Something else is needed

Assuming:• All major

remodels and new stores are low-GWP

• Historical growth in new stores

• Comprehensive remodel rate 1% (about 50 stores a year)

• Need 3% remodel rate to get to 40%

Good news / Bad News• “Lara Bill” (SB 1013) creates paths for incentives

• Money to come from Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund

• Fund spends about $2 Billion per year• To date only about 8% for energy efficiency• All EE to date for residential & disadvantaged communities

• Funding not yet in budget• CPUC inexperienced with GWP goals – focus on energy

Outstanding Issues

• Will new CA HFC phase out regs allow reclaim? (Has huge impact on cost pressure to retrofit)

• How soon can we get an incentive program in place and funded?

Modeling toolsSurvey respondents express a desire for independent tools

• Vendor – neutral• Level playing field• Encompassing new system design options and fixtures• Easy to use• Reliable / trustworthy

Regulatory need• T-24 compliance• GWP analysis• Incentive determination

Existing Modeling Options

Current options are all very difficult to use – not practical for most design engineers as part of design practice

Software Description Limitation(s) vis-à-vis ideal

DOE 2.2RHourly simulation with component models

Does not do CO2 TC, further development unlikely

eQUESTHourly simulation with simplified refrigeration

Existing models oversimplified. Does not do naturals

EnergyPlusVariable time step simulation with CO2 TC, economics

Steep learning curve, time consuming

Pack Calculation Pro

System-level tool that does CO2 TC, CO2 cascade

No interactive effects, no hydrocarbons, HFOs or economics.

Genetron Properties

System-level tool; Does mult CO2 options, Hydrocarbons, HFOs

Steep learning curve, no interactive effects, economics or whole building

Conclusions

• HFC Phase out in CA will be a major market driver• Currently there is a disconnect between market drivers and

regulatory goals• Retrofits beyond GWP < 1500 will be very costly• And hence, unlikely without significant incentives

• This industry needs to engage more with CARB/CPUC to get incentives in place and moving the market.

• No easy-to-use & useful refrigeration modelling tools as yet

Thanks! Questions?

Jim KelseykW [email protected]