Page 1
• Plunge in oil prices will provide boost to most EMs … • … but the impact will vary between countries
Q1
2015
EMERGING MARKETSECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices
• Big movements in interest rates seem unlikely … • … but India could surprise by loosening more than most expect
• Asia and Central Europe likely to be the big winners … • … but Russia and Venezuela are set for deep recessions
Page 2
Cover design by Bobby Gunthorpe. Cover contains visual elements used under licence from: Getty Images & Shutterstock.
Final responsibility for the content of this review rests with Capital Economics Ltd.
© Capital Economics 2015
Disclaimer: While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and Capital Economics Limited and its subsidiaries can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions. This document is a piece of economic research and is not intended to constitute investment advice, nor to soliciting dealing in securities or investments
.
Page 3
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 1
Q1
2015
EMERGING MARKETSECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices 9th January 2015
Table of Key Forecasts 2
Overview 4
China 6 Growth to slow further despite more rate cuts
Other Emerging Asia 8 An EM bright spot
Latin America 10 A limp recovery
Emerging Europe 12 Russian crisis to drag regional growth down
Middle East and North Africa 14 Gulf entering an era of softer growth as oil boom ends
Sub-Saharan Africa 16 Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s
Table of Key Indicators 18
About this publication
The Emerging Markets Economic Outlook contains analysis and forecasts for the six emerging
regions we cover: China, Emerging Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe, the Middle East & North
Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. It also contains economic and market forecasts for selected
countries. For full forecasts and detailed analysis of any of the 56 emerging markets that we cover,
please refer to the relevant regional services. The emerging economies covered in these services are
listed in the Key Indicators table on page 18.
Page 4
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 2
Selected Key Forecasts
Chart 1: Real GDP (%y/y) Chart 2: Consumer Prices (%y/y)
Emerging Asia*
Latin America
Emerging Europe
Mid. East & N. Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Emerging Asia*
Latin America
Emerging Europe
Mid. East & N. Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
Sources – Thomson Datastream, Capital Economics; *Incl. China Sources – Thomson Datastream, Capital Economics; *Incl. China
The following tables contain forecasts for selected economies and regional aggregates. For detailed forecasts of the 56 emerging economies we cover, please refer to our regional services.
TABLE 1: REAL GDP & INFLATION
Share of GDP Inflation(3) % y/y World(2) 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
Emerging Asia(1) 29.6 6.1 5.9 6.0 5.8 4.0 3.4 2.8 3.0
China 16.5 7.7 7.3 7.0 6.5 2.6 2.0 1.5 2.0
India 6.8 4.7 5.2 5.5 6.0 10.1 7.2 5.5 5.5
South Korea 1.7 3.0 3.5 4.5 4.0 1.3 1.3 1.0 2.5
Latin America 8.5 2.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 8.5 10.5 9.5 8.5
Brazil 2.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 6.2 6.3 6.0 5.0
Mexico 2.0 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.0 3.0
Argentina (4) 0.9 3.0 -2.0 1.0 2.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 32.5
Emerging Europe 7.3 1.8 1.3 -1.3 2.5 5.0 5.5 9.0 6.0
Russia 3.3 1.3 0.5 -5.0 2.0 6.8 7.5 15.0 8.0
Turkey 1.4 4.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 7.5 8.8 6.8 7.3
Poland 0.9 1.6 3.0 2.8 3.8 0.9 0.0 -0.2 1.3
Mid. East & N. Africa 6.8 3.2 3.5 3.0 3.0 4.3 4.1 4.8 4.5
Saudi Arabia 1.5 2.7 3.6 2.0 2.0 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.8
Egypt 0.9 1.5 3.8 4.0 4.5 9.5 10.0 10.0 8.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 3.1 4.3 4.8 3.8 4.0 7.5 7.8 9.0 8.3
South Africa 0.6 1.9 1.5 2.0 2.5 5.8 6.1 5.0 6.0
Emerging Markets 55.3 4.7 4.3 4.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 5.3 6.3
G4 Countries
US 16.3 1.9 2.3 3.0 2.8 1.5 1.6 -0.1 2.1
Euro-zone 12.8 -0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.5 -0.5 0.5
Japan 4.5 1.5 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.4 2.7 1.3 1.0
UK 2.3 1.7 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.6 1.5 0.5 1.7
(1) Incl. China. (2) %, 2014, PPP terms. (3) % y/y annual avg. (4) Historical data are official figures, forecasts are for CE proxies.
Page 5
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 3
TABLE 2: SELECTED CENTRAL BANK POLICY RATES (%)
Policy Rate
End
2014 Latest
(8th Jan.)Last Change
Next Change
Forecasts End End 2015 2016
Emerging Asia
China 12m B’mark Dep. 2.75 2.75 Down 25bp (Nov 14) Down 25bp (Q1 15) 2.20 2.20
India Repo Rate 8.00 8.00 Up 25bp (Jan 14) Down 25bp (Q1 15) 7.00 7.00
Korea Base Rate 2.00 2.00 Down 25bp (Oct 14) Up 25bp (1H 15) 2.25 2.50
Latin America Brazil Selic Rate 11.75 11.75 Up 50bp (Dec 14) Up 50bp (Q1 15) 12.25 10.00
Mexico O/N Repo Rate 3.00 3.00 Down 50bp (Jun 14) Down 50bp (1H 15) 2.50 3.50
Emerging Europe Russia 7-day Repo Rate 17.00 17.00 Up 650bp (Dec 14) Down 200bp (Q4 15) 15.00 12.50
Turkey O/N Lending 11.25 11.25 Down 75bp (Aug 14) None on horizon 11.25 11.25
7-day Repo Rate 8.25 8.25 Down 50bp (Jul 14) None on horizon 8.25 8.25
Poland Repo Rate 2.00 2.00 Down 50bp (Oct14) Up 25bp (1H 16) 2.00 2.25
Mid. East & Africa Egypt O/N Deposit Rate 9.25 9.25 Up 100bp (Jul 14) Down 25bp (1H 16) 9.25 8.25
South Africa Repo Rate 5.75 5.75 Up 25bp (Jul 14) Up 25bp (Mar 14) 6.75 7.50
Japan Overnight Rate 0-0.10 0-0.10 Down 20bp (Dec 08) None on horizon 0-0.10 0-0.10
US Fed Funds Target 0-0.25 0-0.25 Down 75bp (Dec 08) Up 25bp (Mar 15) 1-1.25 2.75-3
Euro-zone Refinancing Rate 0.05 0.05 Down 10bp (Sep 14) None on horizon 0.05 0.05
TABLE 3: SELECTED FX RATES PER USD1 & STOCK MARKETS
Forecasts Forecasts
Currency End Latest End End Stock Market End Latest End End 2014 (8th Jan) 2015 2016 2014 (8th Jan) 2015 2016
Emerging Asia
China CNY 6.21 6.22 6.10 6.00 SH Comp. 3,235 3,293 3,000 3,000
India INR 63.1 62.5 65.0 65.0 Sensex 30 27,500 27,275 31,000 33,000
Korea KRW 1,094 1,097 1,100 1,100 KOSPI 1,916 1,904 2,250 2,500
Latin America
Brazil BRL 2.66 2.68 2.85 2.85 Bovespa 50,007 50,050 54,000 56,500
Mexico MXN 13.00 14.60 14.00 14.00 Bolsa 43,146 42,469 48,000 53,500
Emerging Europe
Russia RUB 60.0 60.1 55.0 55.0 MICEX 1,397 1,547 1,500 1,550
Turkey TRY 2.33 2.30 2.35 2.35 ISE 100 85,721 87,690 89,000 93,000
Poland(2) PLN 4.28 4.28 4.10 3.90 WIG Index 51,416 52,377 60,000 66,000
Mid. East & Africa
Saudi Arabia SAR 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 TADAWUL 8,333 8,285 8,500 9,000
Egypt EGP 7.15 7.15 7.50 8.00 EGX30 8,927 8,946 9,600 9,700
South Africa ZAR 11.55 11.59 12.50 13.00 JALSH 49,771 49,595 52,500 56,000
Japan JPY 119.7 119.6 140.0 140.0 Nikkei 225 17,451 17,167 20,000 21,000
US USD - - - - S&P 500 2,059 2,058 2,100 2,200
Euro-zone EUR 1.21 1.18 1.15 1.10 DAX 30 9,805 9,834 10,000 10,250
(1) Local currency per USD, except EUR which is USD per euro. (2) PLN per euro
Page 6
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 4
The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a
welcome boost to growth in the majority of
emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of
slower growth in much of the Middle East and
deepening crises in a handful of EMs, notably
Russia and Venezuela. The net result is likely
to be that aggregate EM growth is broadly
unchanged from last year.
The big winners from low oil prices will be
those EMs that are large importers of energy.
This covers much of the emerging world,
including most economies in Asia and Central
Europe, but also Turkey, South Africa and
Brazil. (See Chart 1.) These economies will see
an improvement in their terms of trade as a
result of falling oil prices, which in turn will
provide support to domestic demand. For
Turkey, South Africa and, in particular, India,
lower oil prices will also help to ease concern
over large current account deficits.
The pain from lower oil prices will be
concentrated in EMs that are large energy
exporters. (See Chart 2.) Most of these are well
placed to withstand a fall in oil revenues. The
Gulf economies ran large surpluses and
accumulated foreign assets when oil prices
were high, which will help to cushion the
blow now prices have fallen back. In Mexico,
lower oil prices will be counterbalanced by a
continued recovery in the US and should not
prevent growth picking up in 2015.
There are exceptions though. The economic
consequences for Russia of the collapse in the
ruble in the final weeks of last year will
become clear over the coming months. We
expect a deep recession this year. Venezuela
and several economies in West Africa,
including Angola, are in trouble too.
In aggregate, we expect the boost to growth in
oil consumers to be broadly offset by a drag on
growth from oil producers, with the result that
overall EM growth remains unchanged at
around 4% in 2015. This is likely to remain the
“new normal” for growth over the coming
years. (See Chart 3.) Asia will remain the
fastest growing region, while the deepening
crisis in Russia will ensure Emerging Europe
stays the weakest performer. (See Chart 4.)
We foresee a further slowdown in China, with
continued strains in the property sector (see
Chart 5), but believe that policymakers there
have room to prevent a hard landing.
Currency weakness will push inflation sharply
higher in some places, pushing up regional
aggregate inflation rates. But these are the
exceptions. For most EMs, lower oil prices will
bring inflation down. (See Charts 6 and 7.)
Meanwhile, fears that lower oil prices could
trigger a damaging bout of deflation in parts of
Asia and Central Europe are overdone. For the
most part, any dip into deflation in these
countries will be temporary and should give a
boost to real incomes and thus growth.
In general, we do not expect big moves in EM
interest rates in 2015. (See Chart 8.) With
inflation low, central banks in much of Asia
will keep rates on hold this year, and some
will cut. Although policy in Brazil, Turkey and
Russia will remain tight, we suspect that the
big rate hikes here have happened. Elsewhere,
monetary policy in Central Europe will remain
extremely loose, but we do not envisage
further rate cuts. The one EM to watch is India,
where we think that interest rate cuts could be
larger than expected.
Overview
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in a world of low oil prices
Page 7
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 5
Overview Charts
Chart 1: Net Fuel Imports (% of GDP, 2013) Chart 2: Net Fuel Exports (% of GDP, 2013)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Tha. Kor. Ken. Ind. Chl. Tur. Phi. SA Chn. Pol. Brz. Arg.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ang. Sau. Ven. Nga. Rus. Col. Ecu. Gha. Mal. Idn. Mex.
Chart 3: Emerging Market GDP (% y/y) Chart 4: Emerging Market GDP by Region (% y/y)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
CE Forecast
Emerging Asia*
Latin America
Emerging Europe
Mid. East & N. Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
Chart 5: China Developers’ Inventories of Unsold Residential Property (million units)
Chart 6: EM Consumer Prices* (% y/y)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CE Forecast
*excludes Venezuela
Chart 7: Consumer Prices (% y/y) Chart 8: Policy Rates (%, Simple Average)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
Turkey India Indonesia Brazil South Africa
2014e 2015f
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Emerging EuropeEmerging AsiaLatin America
CE Forecasts
Sources – Thomson Datastream, IMF, Capital Economics; *Incl. China
Page 8
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 6
We expect China’s growth to slow further over
the next two years. That said, policymakers
have plenty of tools with which to shore up
growth if necessary. This, along with the
relatively bright outlook for consumption,
should reduce downside risks.
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth
recovered slightly at the start of Q4, on the
back of strong service sector activity. (See
Chart 1.) Nonetheless, we expect it to resume
its gradual downwards slide as overcapacity
across a number of industries continues to
weigh on investment.
Property, in particular, is likely to remain a
drag. While more accommodative policy may
provide some support to sales, a large glut of
unsold properties leaves limited upside for
construction activity. (See Chart 2.)
With employment growth strong (see Chart 3),
we think the government will feel comfortable
allowing this slowdown and will lower the
growth target for 2015 to “about 7.0%”.
As such, we are not expecting fireworks from
policymakers. The People’s Bank is likely to
follow the November benchmark rate cut with
more cuts and liquidity injections but these
will be offset by tougher banking regulations to
slow shadow banking. With credit risks still
rising, there is little appetite for a sustained
rebound in credit growth. (See Charts 4 and 5.)
Meanwhile, although the government says it
will pursue “proactive” fiscal policy once
again this year and is likely to step up
budgeted spending, new fiscal rules, which
require that the two thirds of spending that
currently takes place outside the formal budget
be included in the budget, are likely to result
in a tighter fiscal stance overall.
More positively, low oil prices should give a
boost to spending. In 2013, China’s net
imports of oil cost the equivalent of 2.5% of
GDP. If global oil prices remain at or below
$60 per barrel, the economy as a whole will
be better off to the tune of more than 1% of
GDP. For the same reason, inflation is likely to
ease further. (See Chart 6.) Many are
concerned about deflation, but most firms and
households should find themselves better off.
Finally, while slowing investment growth is
likely to remain a drag on imports, we expect
exports to remain healthy. (See Chart 7.) With
lower commodity prices further reducing the
import bill, the current account surplus is
likely to rebound.
This will put upwards pressure on the
renminbi. However, it was one of the world’s
strongest-performing currencies in 2014 and
the scope for significant gains against the
dollar is limited from here. (See Chart 8.)
Indeed, while we expect the renminbi to
sustain its gains in trade-weighted terms and to
end the year stronger against the dollar too,
short-lived bouts of depreciation against the
US currency are likely.
China
Growth to slow further despite more rate cuts
TABLE 4: CHINA
% change on a year earlier Forecasts
Ave.02–12
2013 2014e 2015 2016
GDP 10.3 7.7 7.3 7.0 6.5
Cons. prices 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.5 2.0
Current account(1) 5.1 2.0 2.7 3.5 3.5 (1) As a % of GDP
Page 9
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 7
China Charts
Chart 1: China Activity Proxy & GDP (% y/y) Chart 2: Developers’ Inventories of Unsold Residential Property (million units)
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 144
6
8
10
12
14
16
18 Official GDP (latest = Q3)
CE China Activity Proxy (latest = Nov.)
SARS
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Chart 3: New Urban Jobs (millions) Chart 4: Contribution to Annual Credit Growth (%-pts)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Official TargetActual (by year-end)Actual (by end-Sep.)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Other elements of total social financingTrust loans & bankers' acceptance billsBank loans
Chart 5: Credit & GDP (% y/y) Chart 6: Consumer Prices (% y/y)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Credit growth(latest = Nov.)GDP growth (nominal, latest = Q3)
-3-2-10123456789
-3-2-10123456789
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Consumer pricesConsumer prices excl. food
CE forecasts
Chart 7: Merchandise Trade ($bn, seas. adj.) Chart 8: RMB Exchange Rates
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exports
Imports
5.6
6.0
6.4
6.8
7.2
7.6
8.0
8.480
90
100
110
120
130
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Nominal Trade-weighted Exchange Rate (Jan. 2002=100, LHS)
Dollar Spot Rate (inverted, RHS)
Renminbi stronger
Sources – Thomson Datastream, CEIC, Bloomberg, Capital Economics
Page 10
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 8
Growth in Emerging Asia (excluding China) is
likely to accelerate over the next couple of
years. (See Chart 1.) Most countries in the
region will benefit from lower global oil prices
through an improvement in their terms of
trade. Lower oil prices will also help keep
inflation low, which will allow monetary
policy to remain loose. This should all come
against a backdrop of gradual export recovery.
The Newly Industrialised Economies (Hong
Kong, Singapore Taiwan and Korea) should see
a decent improvement in growth over the next
year. (See Charts 2 & 3.) Not only are they
best-placed to benefit from an improvement in
US growth, but they should all be big winners
from falling oil prices. (See Chart 4.)
The outlook for South East Asia is mixed. The
Philippines is likely to remain a star performer,
while Malaysia looks set for a couple of years
of decent growth. In contrast, Indonesia is
likely to disappoint against a backdrop of weak
commodity prices and high interest rates. And
although growth in Thailand should accelerate
after the political crisis of last year, it is still
likely to be South East Asia’s worst performer.
Growth in India is likely to accelerate. Inflation
has recently fallen to multi-year lows, leaving
some scope for policy loosening. Meanwhile,
the government’s reform agenda is building
momentum. Nevertheless, hopes of wide-
ranging reforms are unlikely to be realised, and
growth is still likely to remain below the rates
achieved during the boom years of 2002-2011.
Inflation across Emerging Asia has fallen back
sharply in recent months and looks set to
remain low throughout the forecast period.
There are few signs that countries are running
out of spare capacity. The recent fall in
commodity prices should also help keep
inflationary pressure low. (See Chart 5.)
With inflation set to remain subdued,
monetary policy is likely to remain loose over
the next couple of years. We have interest rate
cuts pencilled in for India, Indonesia and
Vietnam. Although we still expect rate hikes
elsewhere as policymakers move to stem credit
growth, the pace of tightening is likely to be
gradual and may not start until 2016. (See
Chart 6.)
The two exceptions are Hong Kong and
Singapore, which, because of their currency
regimes are forced to adopt a similar monetary
policy stance to the US Federal Reserve.
Market interest rates in both economies are
likely to rise by around 300 basis points by the
end of next year. (See Chart 7.)
One of the key risks facing the region is that
rate hikes in the US acts as a trigger for
renewed market turmoil. Countries with
external deficits, notably Indonesia (see Chart
8), could be forced to hike rates aggressively in
the event of another EM currency sell-off. That
said, with foreign currency debt relatively low
and foreign exchange reserves high, a full
blown crisis is unlikely.
Other Emerging Asia
An EM bright spot
TABLE 5: SELECTED ASIA-PACIFIC
World Share (1)
GDP Inflation 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
Emerging Asia(2) 13.1 4.3 4.4 5.0 5.1 6.1 4.9 4.0 4.0
India 6.8 4.7 5.2 5.5 6.0 10.1 7.2 5.5 5.5
Indonesia 2.4 5.8 5.1 5.0 5.0 6.4 7.0 7.5 5.0
South Korea 1.7 3.0 3.5 4.5 4.0 1.3 1.3 1.0 2.5
Thailand 0.9 2.9 1.0 3.5 3.5 2.2 2.3 1.0 2.5 (1) Share of world GDP in 2014 PPP terms. (2) Excl. China
Page 11
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 9
Other Emerging Asia Charts
Chart 1: Emerging Asia (ex. China) GDP (% y/y) Chart 2: GDP (% y/y)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CE Forecast
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12South East Asia*NIEs**
CE Forecasts
** Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea & Taiwan
* Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia & Thailand
Chart 3: GDP (% y/y) Chart 4: Net Oil Imports (% of GDP)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
China India ASEAN-4 NIEs
2014 2015-16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Sin. Tai. Tha. Kor. Ind. HK Phi. Idn. Mal. Vie.
Chart 5: Global Commodity Prices & Emerging Asia Consumer Prices (% y/y)
Chart 6: Change in Main Policy Rate (%-point, Now-End 16)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
S&P GSCI (LHS)
Consumer prices (RHS)
If commodity prices stay at their current level
Phi. Kor. Tha. Mal. Tai. Idn. Ind. Vie.
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Chart 7: Interest Rates (%) Chart 8: Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
US Fed Funds
HIBOR
SIBOR
CE Forecast
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Sin. Tai. Kor. Mal. Phi. Tha. HK Ind. Idn.
2013Latest (4 Qtr Avg.)
Sources – Thomson Datastream, Capital Economics
Page 12
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 10
After a torrid 2014, economic growth in Latin
America is likely to improve in 2015-16. But
we expect the pace of the recovery to be weak
compared to previous cycles.
Regional GDP growth was probably just 1.0%
last year, the weakest annual rate since the
Global Financial Crisis. (See Chart 1.)
Low oil prices will create divergences within
the region in 2015-16. The biggest beneficiary
will be Chile. Brazil, Argentina and Peru
should all benefit too.
However, the losers are likely to dominate the
aggregate picture. Things could turn ugly in
Venezuela and Ecuador. Colombia and
Mexico will suffer too, albeit to lesser extents.
(See Chart 2.)
Meanwhile, the wider commodities boom that
lifted regional growth in recent years has now
ended. While the bulk of the falls in
commodity prices has probably happened,
rapid price growth is unlikely. Softer Chinese
demand will weigh on commodity export
volumes too. This will constrain income
growth in the region’s commodity-dependent
economies. (See Chart 3.)
External financing conditions are likely to start
tightening this year too as the US raises interest
rates. As a result, funding the region’s large
current account deficits may become more
difficult. That is likely to weigh on domestic
demand, meaning that deficits across the
region have to narrow. (See Chart 4.)
The fact that growth is likely to remain below
trend in most places should mean that inflation
edges down. (See Chart 5.) That should allow
monetary and fiscal policy to stay loose in
most countries. (See Charts 6 & 7.)
The exception is Brazil. A more orthodox
approach to policymaking in President
Rousseff’s second term should mean that both
monetary and fiscal policy is tightened in
response to above-target inflation.
One wildcard for 2015-16 is Argentina. A shift
towards more market-friendly policymaking is
possible if the general election in October
triggers a change of government. Some small
policy tweaks could lead to a significant
upturn in medium-term growth prospects.
In summary, we expect a limp recovery in
2015-16 for the region. Economic growth is
likely to remain weaker than the previous
decade averages in most places. The exception
is Mexico, where faster growth in the US and
structural reforms mean that it should grow at
a faster pace than in the past decade. (See
Chart 8.)
Latin America
A limp recovery
TABLE 6: SELECTED LATIN AMERICA
World Share (1)
GDP Inflation % y/y 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
Latin America 8.5 2.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 8.5 10.5 9.5 8.5
Brazil 2.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 6.2 6.3 6.0 5.0
Mexico 2.0 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.0 3.0
Argentina (2) 0.9 3.0 -2.0 1.0 2.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 32.5
Colombia 0.6 4.3 4.5 2.5 3.0 2.0 3.2 3.0 3.0
Chile 0.4 4.1 2.0 3.0 3.0 1.9 4.4 3.5 3.0
(1) Share of world GDP in 2014 PPP terms. (2) Forecasts are for Capital Economics proxies
Page 13
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 11
Latin America Charts
Chart 1: Latin America GDP Growth Chart 2: Net Oil Balance (2013, % of GDP)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Decade Avg.
CE Est.
Ven. Ecu. Col. Mex. Arg. Bra. Per. Chl.-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Oil Surplus
Oil Deficit
Chart 3: Net Commodity Export Revenues (% of GDP, 2014e) Chart 4: Current Account Balances (% of GDP)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Ven. Chl. Ecu. Col. Per. Bra. Arg. Mex.
38
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Mexico Chile Brazil Colombia Peru
2014e 2015f 2016f
Chart 5: Consumer Prices (% y/y) Chart 6: Policy Interest Rates (%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Brz. Chl. Mex. Col. Per. Ecu.
2014e 2015f 2016f
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Bra. Col. Per. Chl. Mex.
CurrentCapital Economics End-15Market Pricing End-15
Chart 7: Public Sector Budget Deficit (% of GDP) Chart 8: GDP (% y/y)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Brz. Chl. Col. Mex. Per.
2014e2015f2016f
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Per. Arg. Ven. Col. Ecu. Chl. Brz. Mex.
2014e2015f2016fAverage 2004 - 2013
Sources – Thomson Datastream, Bloomberg, CE
Page 14
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 12
The fallout from Russia’s economic crisis
means GDP in Emerging Europe will contract
in 2015 for the first time since 2009. A deep
recession in Russia is almost inevitable. But
while the rest of the region will suffer a hit to
exports, it shouldn’t be a disaster. Indeed, the
economies of Central Europe are likely to see
steady, if unspectacular, growth in 2015-16.
GDP in Emerging Europe grew by just 1.5%
y/y in Q3, its weakest pace since early 2013.
And our GDP Tracker suggests that the
region’s economy remained weak at the start
of Q4. (See Chart 1.) This was mainly due to a
slowdown in Turkey as well as persistent
weakness in Russia. (See Chart 2.)
Of course, this all predates Russia’s crisis at the
end of 2014. Given our view that oil prices
will stay low, we don’t think the ruble will
recover its losses. As a result, we expect
inflation in Russia to rise further, interest rates
to stay high, and the economy to enter a
recession. For now, we have pencilled in a 5%
fall in output in 2015. (See Chart 3.)
The rest of the region’s exports will suffer from
this. But for most countries, exports to Russia
are fairly small. (See Chart 4.) All told, we
think the impact on exports could knock 0.3-
1%-pts off GDP growth in the rest of the region
in 2015. This is painful, but not a disaster.
Perhaps more worrying for most countries is
the weakness in the euro-zone, the region’s
largest export market. We expect sluggish
growth in the single currency bloc in 2015-16,
which is likely to lead to only a modest pick-
up in Emerging Europe’s exports. (See Chart 5.)
We’re more upbeat about the prospects for
domestic demand. Fiscal austerity is easing,
labour market conditions are strengthening,
and consumer and firms’ confidence is rising.
Meanwhile, large amounts of spare capacity,
as well as the plunge in oil prices, will keep
inflation low. (See Chart 6.) This will boost real
incomes and allow central banks to maintain
loose monetary conditions. (See Chart 7.)
Turkey is an exception. There, capacity
constraints will keep inflation high, in spite of
the fall in oil prices. This, coupled with a large
current account deficit, means monetary
conditions will remain tight.
Bringing this all together, we think regional
GDP will fall by 1.3% in 2015. Russia will
suffer a severe recession and Turkish growth
will be disappointingly weak. But growth in
Central Europe should be better than in recent
years, at around 3%. (See Chart 8.)
Emerging Europe
Russian crisis to drag regional growth down
TABLE 7: SELECTED EMERGING EUROPE
World Share(1)
GDP Inflation % y/y 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
Emerging Europe 7.3 1.8 1.3 -1.3 2.5 5.0 5.5 9.0 6.0
Russia 3.3 1.3 0.5 -5.0 2.0 6.8 7.5 15.0 8.0
Turkey 1.4 4.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 7.5 8.8 6.8 7.3
Poland 0.9 1.6 3.0 2.8 3.8 0.9 0.0 -0.2 1.3
Czech Republic 0.3 -0.7 2.3 2.8 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.4 1.3
Hungary 0.2 1.2 3.3 2.0 2.5 1.8 -0.2 0.0 1.8
(1) Share of world GDP in 2014 PPP terms.
Page 15
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 13
Emerging Europe Charts
Chart 1: Emerging Europe GDP & CE GDP Tracker (% y/y) Chart 2: GDP (% y/y)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CE Emerging Europe GDP Tracker
Emerging Europe GDP
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Central Europe*
Turkey
Russia
*Cze, Hun, Pol & Slk
Chart 3: Russia GDP (% y/y) Chart 4: Exports to Russia (% of GDP, 2013)
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10CE
Forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Chart 5: CEE* Exports & euro-zone GDP (% y/y) Chart 6: Consumer Prices (% y/y)
-20-15-10-505101520253035
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Euro-zone GDP (LHS)CEE* Exports (RHS) CE Forecasts
(*) Avg. of Emerging Europe, excl. Russia, Turkey & Ukraine -2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
TurkeyCentral EuropeSouth East Europe
CE Forecasts
Chart 7: Policy Interest Rates (%) Chart 8: GDP (% y/y)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
RomaniaHungaryPolandCzech
CEForecasts
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
RussiaCentral EuropeTurkey
CE Forecast
Sources – Thomson Datastream, Capital Economics
Page 16
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 14
The sharp slide in oil prices is likely to result in
a period of softer, rather than an outright
collapse in, growth in the Gulf economies over
the coming years. In contrast, we think that
growth in North Africa should strengthen in
2015-16.
Growth in the Gulf appears to have held up
well over the course of 2014. But the recent
plunge in oil prices has cast a cloud over the
outlook. Equity markets may have tumbled
(see Chart 1), but policymakers have largely
taken the fall in oil prices in their stride.
This is not too surprising. After all, the Gulf
economies are in a stronger position than other
oil producers to absorb the hit to their income.
Admittedly, most countries are likely to run
budget and current account deficits this year.
(See Chart 2.) But large savings and low debt
levels mean that these should be easily
financed for years to come. (See Chart 3.)
Accordingly, while government spending looks
set to slow (see Chart 4) for the case of Saudi
Arabia), policymakers won’t be forced to
tighten fiscal policy aggressively. Meanwhile,
the Gulf is likely to resist pressure from other
OPEC members to cut oil output in order to
shore up prices. The upshot is that while we
think growth in the Gulf will weaken in 2015-
16, we don’t expect it to collapse.
Fears have surfaced that the fall in oil prices
could lead to renewed debt problems in
Dubai. (See Chart 5.) For now, we don’t think
that we’re about to witness a repeat of the
Emirate’s debt crisis in 2009. But a prolonged
period of low oil prices could see some quasi-
public companies struggle to repay their debts.
Elsewhere, we remain upbeat on the prospects
for the North African countries (Egypt,
Morocco and Tunisia). Their governments
have embarked on much-needed economic
reforms and recent investments should support
strong growth in manufacturing sectors.
There are, of course, risks to the outlook.
Parliamentary elections in Egypt bring the
threat of fresh civil unrest and large twin
budget and current account deficits remain a
concern. (See Chart 6.) However, lower oil
prices will provide some relief. This, combined
with IMF deals, financing from the Gulf and a
return of foreign investors to the region (see
Chart 7), mean that external financing
concerns should be limited. At the same time,
the fall in oil prices will improve fiscal
positions, even if subsidy cuts mean that it
won’t necessarily lead to lower inflation.
All told, we think the North African economies
should start to outperform their oil-rich
neighbours in the Gulf in 2015. (See Chart 8.)
Middle East and North Africa
Gulf entering an era of softer growth as oil boom ends
TABLE 8: SELECTED MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
World Share (1)
GDP Inflation % y/y 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
Mid. East & N. Africa 6.8 3.2 3.5 3.0 3.0 4.3 4.0 4.8 4.5
Saudi Arabia 1.5 2.7 3.6 2.0 2.0 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.8
Egypt 0.9 1.5 3.8 4.0 4.5 9.5 10.0 10.0 8.5
UAE 0.6 5.2 4.5 3.8 3.5 1.1 2.3 3.0 3.3
Morocco 0.2 4.3 2.5 4.5 5.0 1.9 0.5 1.5 1.8
(1) Share of world GDP in 2014 PPP terms.
Page 17
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 15
Middle East and North Africa Charts
Chart 1: MSCI GCC (Local Currency, 1st Jan. 14 = 100) Chart 2: Oil Price Needed to Balance Current Account & Budget Positions (2015)
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Bahrain Oman Saudi UAE Kuwait Qatar
Budget
Current Account
Oil at $50pb
Chart 3: SWF Assets & Gov’t Debt (Latest, % of 2014 GDP) Chart 4: Saudi Arabia Government Spending (% y/y)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Kuwait UAE Saudi* Qatar Bahrain
Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) Assets
Gross Government Debt
* SWF assets are those held at the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Budget
Actual
Chart 5: Dubai GRE Debt by Maturity (US$bn) Chart 6: Cur. Acc. & Bud. Deficits. (Avg. 2015-16, % of GDP)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Beyond
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20Restructured Loans
Other Debt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Egypt Morocco Tunisia
Current Account Budget
Chart 7: Net Foreign Purchases of Egyptian Stocks (EGP bn) Chart 8: GDP (% y/y)
11 12 13 14 15
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
15.5
-14.9
Six out of seven months of net foreign purchases
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14e 15 16
GCC
North Africa
CE F'casts
Sources – CEIC, Thomson Datastream, IMF, Capital Economics
Page 18
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 16
Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA’s) economy is likely
to have grown by around 5% in 2014. (See
Chart 1.) But growth looks set to slow this year
to the weakest pace since the late 1990s.
There are a range of causes of this weakness,
but a common theme is that the global
commodities boom has come to an end.
Granted, most countries in the region are net
oil importers, so stand to benefit from the
recent slump in oil prices. But a number of
SSA’s largest economies – Angola, Nigeria and
Ghana – will be hit hard. (See Chart 2.)
In Nigeria and Angola, current account
surpluses are likely to turn into deficits. And
Ghana will face continued balance of
payments problems. (See Chart 3.) We suspect
that Nigeria’s and Angola’s central banks will
allow their currencies to weaken further,
having previously tied them to the US dollar.
This is likely to push up inflation, prompting
interest rate hikes. While we do not expect
further hikes in Ghana, monetary policy there
will remain tight.
Elsewhere, in net oil importing countries,
lower global oil prices will put downward
pressure on inflation. But we think this will be
partly offset by currency weakness. The result
is likely to be that inflation remains close to
the upper limit of central bank target ranges.
(See Chart 4). Interest rates are likely to rise in
these countries, although the increase should
be relatively gradual and rates will remain
below the levels seen in oil-exporting
economies with balance of payment problems.
(See Chart 5.)
As tax revenues from commodity production
fall, budget positions in commodity-dependent
countries (such as Angola and Nigeria) will
deteriorate. (See Chart 6.) Governments in
South Africa and Ghana have already
announced plans to rein in their deficits in the
coming years. In contrast, Nigeria’s
government is likely to be wary of announcing
drastic cuts to spending ahead of February’s
general election. So the bulk of cuts there are
likely to be introduced later next year.
Against this backdrop, growth in SSA is likely
to slow next year, while growth elsewhere in
the world picks up. (See Chart 7.) We expect
the worst performer in the region to be Angola,
which we forecast to slip into recession.
That said, the long-run outlook remains strong
for most economies in SSA. Demographic
trends are likely to boost the labour force. And
given that per capita GDP is generally low,
there is still plenty of scope for catch-up
growth. (See Chart 8.)
Sub-Saharan Africa
Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s
TABLE 9: SELECTED SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
World Share(1)
GDP Inflation % y/y 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
Sub-Saharan Africa 3.1 5.1 4.8 3.8 4.0 6.6 7.8 9.0 8.3
Nigeria 1.0 5.4 6.5 5.0 5.5 8.5 8.7 10.0 10.0
South Africa 0.6 1.9 1.5 2.0 2.5 5.8 6.1 5.0 6.0
Kenya 0.1 4.6 5.5 6.0 7.0 5.7 6.9 6.0 7.3
Ghana 0.1 7.1 5.0 3.0 4.0 11.6 15.5 14.0 10.0
(1) Share of world GDP in 2014 PPP terms.
Page 19
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 17
Sub-Saharan Africa Charts
Chart 1: GDP (% y/y) Chart 2: Net Fuel Exports (2013, % of GDP)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Period ave.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Chart 3: Current Account Balances (% of GDP) Chart 4: Consumer Prices (% y/y)
Angola Ghana Kenya S. Africa Nigeria-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2014 2015f
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Ghana Nigeria Kenya S. Africa Uganda*
2014e 2015f 2016f
Inflation Target Ranges
* Uganda's inflation target is "about 5% or less"
Chart 5: Central Bank Policy Rates (%) Chart 6: Government Fiscal Balances (% of GDP)
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Ghana Nigeria
S. Africa Kenya
CE Forecasts
Angola Kenya Uganda South Africa Nigeria
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2014e 2015f 2016f
Chart 7: GDP (% y/y) Chart 8: Potential GDP Growth (% y/y, Next 10 Years)
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10SSA
World
CE Forecasts
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Nga. Gha. Tan. Moz. Ken. Uga. Zam. Bot. Mau. Ang. SA
Sources – Thomson Datastream, IMF, Bloomberg, Capital Economics
Page 20
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Q1 2015 18
KEY INDICATORS (2014, UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED)
Share of World Output (%)(1)
GDP ($bn, Mkt Ex. Rates)
Population (mn) GDP per cap. ($, Mkt Ex. Rates)
GDP per cap. (% of US)
Stock Mkt. Cap. ($bn, Dec. 14)
Emerging Europe Russia 3.3 2,057 144 14,317 26 359 Turkey 1.4 813 77 10,518 19 260 Poland 0.9 552 39 14,330 26 172 Ukraine 0.3 135 45 2,979 5 8 Czech Republic 0.3 200 11 18,985 35 28 Romania 0.4 202 20 10,161 19 20 Hungary 0.2 130 10 13,154 24 14 Slovakia 0.1 100 5 18,480 34 6 Bulgaria 0.1 55 7 7,648 14 4 Croatia 0.1 58 4 13,624 25 19 Lithuania 0.1 49 3 16,476 30 4 Latvia 0.05 33 2 16,145 30 1 Estonia 0.03 26 1 19,777 36 2
Latin America Brazil 2.9 2,244 203 11,067 20 809 Mexico 2.0 1,296 120 10,837 20 448 Argentina 0.9 536 42 12,778 23 56 Colombia 0.6 400 48 8,394 15 149 Venezuela 0.5 209 30 6,870 13 85 Peru 0.4 208 31 6,625 12 81 Chile 0.4 264 18 14,911 27 234 Ecuador 0.2 100 16 6,270 11 n/a Bolivia 0.1 34 11 3,031 6 n/a Uruguay 0.1 56 3 16,332 30 n/a China Mainland China 16.5 10,355 1,368 7,572 14 4,965 Hong Kong 0.4 293 7 40,304 74 4,151
Emerging Asia India 6.8 2,048 1,260 1,626 3 1,557 South Korea 1.7 1,449 50 28,739 53 1,183 Indonesia 2.4 856 251 3,404 6 422 Taiwan 1.0 505 23 21,572 39 967 Thailand 0.9 380 69 5,550 10 416 Pakistan 0.8 233 186 1,275 2 75 Malaysia 0.7 337 30 11,062 20 453 Philippines 0.6 290 99 2,913 5 257 Singapore 0.4 307 5 56,113 103 571 Vietnam 0.5 188 91 2,073 4 54 Sri Lanka 0.2 72 21 3,414 6 22
Mid. East and N. Africa Saudi Arabia 1.5 778 31 25,401 46 482 Egypt 0.9 285 85 3,337 6 75 Algeria 0.5 228 39 5,886 11 n/a United Arab Emirates 0.6 416 9 44,771 82 214 Qatar 0.3 212 2 94,744 173 186 Morocco 0.2 113 33 3,392 6 53 Kuwait 0.3 179 4 44,850 82 93 Tunisia 0.1 49 11 4,467 8 9 Oman 0.2 81 4 21,688 40 24 Lebanon 0.1 47 5 10,531 19 9 Jordan 0.08 37 7 5,460 10 26 Bahrain 0.06 34 1 28,424 52 19
Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa 0.6 341 54 6,354 12 506 Nigeria 1.0 594 174 3,416 6 63 Angola 0.2 131 21 6,128 11 n/a Ghana 0.1 35 26 1,353 2 3 Kenya 0.1 63 43 1,461 3 25 Uganda 0.1 26 38 686 1 1 Cote d’Ivoire 0.1 34 25 1,370 3 n/a Zambia 0.06 26 15 1,705 3 4
Sources – Thomson Datastream, IMF, Bloomberg. (1) Share of world GDP in 2014 PPP terms (IMF Forecasts).
Page 21
This document has been prepared by:
Jack Allen
Roger Bootle
Liam Carson
Liza Ermolenko
Julian Evans-Pritchard
Edward Glossop
William Jackson
Gareth Leather
Chang Liu
Daniel Martin
David Rees
Shilan Shah
Neil Shearing
Krystal Tan
Jason Tuvey
Mark Williams
For any enquiries, please contact your local office:
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