1 © 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Emerging IPv6 Trends in Next Generation Networks Tony Bates Routing Technologies Group Cisco Systems, San Jose, California April 13, 2004 Key note at Global IPv6 Summit, Beijing
1© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Emerging IPv6 Trends in Next Generation Networks
Tony Bates Routing Technologies Group
Cisco Systems, San Jose, California
April 13, 2004Key note at Global IPv6 Summit, Beijing
2© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Agenda• Service Providers Trends
– Broadband Internet TrendsRole of IPv6 in Broadband Internet
– Mobile Internet TrendsRole of IPv6 in Mobile Internet
• NREN TrendsRole of IPv6 in Grid networks
• Defense and Home Land SecurityRole of IPv6 in Home Land Security
• Evolution towards Ubiquitous Networking
3© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Cisco’s Network Vision Fusing the Best of Today’s Networks and More
Reliability of the PSTN
Capacity of an Optical Network
Simplicityof Ethernet
Ubiquity of the
InternetNext Generation Network
Next Generation Network
Content Richness of
TelevisionMobility of the Wireless Network
Security of a PrivateNetwork
4© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Evolution towards Ubiquitous Networking: Future of Broadband and Mobile
2000 2002-2004 2005-2007
Traditional NetworkTraditional Network
Disparate NetworksDisparate Networks-- DisparateDisparate PSTN and IP PSTN and IP
networknetwork--Emergence of Emergence of VoIPVoIP
--Start of Start of VoIPVoIP communicommuni--cationcation eraera
Availability and Flexibility of
Availability and Flexibility of C
omm
nC
omm
n ., .,
Ubiquity of Ubiquity of NetworksNetworks−− IP based MultiIP based Multi--service service networks networks -- Integration of Integration of Voice and data networks Voice and data networks (both (both WirelineWireline and and wireless)wireless)
Network ConvergenceNetwork Convergence
−− Start of Start of Multiservice Multiservice Broadband packet based Broadband packet based networksnetworks
Ubiquity of Ubiquity of CommuCommu--nicationnication/services/services-- Real time communicationReal time communicationBased on SIPBased on SIP-- Unified MessagingUnified Messaging-- Find me, Follow me Find me, Follow me CommunicationCommunication-- Intelligent TerminalsIntelligent Terminals
-- Introduction of IP MultiIntroduction of IP Multi--Media Systems (IMS) to Media Systems (IMS) to 3G/4G3G/4G-- IPv6IPv6
Communication Communication ConvergenceConvergence
5© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Broadband Internet Trends
6© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Broadband Around the World
North America:North America:26M+ subscribers26M+ subscribersCable modem leadsCable modem leads150K FTTH subs.,150K FTTH subs.,
Europe:Europe:18M+ subscribers18M+ subscribersDSL leadsDSL leads300K FTTH subs.,300K FTTH subs.,
CALA:CALA:1.7M+ subscribers1.7M+ subscribersDSL leadsDSL leads
Australasia:Australasia:35M+ subscribers35M+ subscribersDSL leadsDSL leads800k FTTH subs. 800k FTTH subs. (Japan Mainly)(Japan Mainly)
Source: RHK, Corning, Point topic Q2CY2003Source: RHK, Corning, Point topic Q2CY2003
7© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Japanese Broadband market growth
7.4
10.910.1 10.0
11.1
2
Mar20
00Ju
n Sep Dec
BB in total DSL FTTH CATV ISDN
millionMonthly growth rate:Monthly growth rate:FTTH exceeds ADSLFTTH exceeds ADSL
Mar20
01Ju
n Sep DecMar
2002
Jun Sep Dec
Mar20
03Ju
n Dec.0
4
6
8
10
12
14
Synchronizing with Synchronizing with ADSL upward trend, ADSL upward trend, ISDN starts to declineISDN starts to decline
0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.82.8
3.95.0
6.1
7.89.4
11.113.2
ISDN
ADSL
FTTH
CATV
Source: Statistics from Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications Exceeded 13 millions in total in Dec. 2003
8© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Projections for Japan’s Broadband Market - Service ContentsThe broadband markets in Japan projected to expand to approx. 4 trillion Yen by fiscal 2007, with broadband communications representing 2.4 trillion Yen.
100 Mil. yen
Year2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
10,000
12,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
12,000
7,900
4,400
1600300
2006
16,000
2007
21,000
14,000
16,000
21,000
18,000
BB communicationse LearningASP Service
Year2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
10,000
12,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
12,000
7,000
3,000
66090
2006
15,000
2007
19,000
14,000
16,000
20,000
18,000
Consumer Market Business Market100 Mil. yen
Other (ASP, electronic publishing, electronic government)
Tele-medicineSoftware downloadsMotion picture deliveryMusic downloadsNet gamese-LearningBB communications
Source: EC Research.
9© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Broadband Access Market projection in Japan
30 220
2,410
4,860
8,990
11,490
14,090
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2001 2002 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E
1,000 Subs
FTTH Subscribers
2,380
6,300
10,680
14,42015,390 14,940
13,950
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E
ADSL Subscribers
1,000 Subs
Source: InfoCom Research, Inc.
10© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
IPv6 Based FTTH and ADSL Deployment Scenario
ADSL
FTTH 100M
STB
Modem
M/C
M/C
IPv6 Core
CoreGigE
Channel
GigE
FE/GigE
ADSL DSLAMModem
GigEChannel
10GigE
L2 AggregrationIPv6 Core
OC-48/192POS/10GigE
OC-48/192POS/10GigE
OC-48/192POS/10GigE
L2 Aggregration
ONU
DSLAMAccess
GigEChannel
M/C
FTTH 100M
Applications: Internet Access, VoiceContent – VoD, Digital TV, On line gaming
11© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
IPv6 based Broadband Internet Deployments by Japanese SPs
• Japan Telecom adds SLAs to its IPv6 servicehttp://www.ipv6style.jp/en/news/2003/1226_japan-telecom.shtml
• NTT-East to start IPv6 servicehttp://www.ipv6style.jp/en/news/2003/1219_ntt-east.shtml
• NTT Com to offer its dual stack service nationwide – 03/13/2003 http://www.ipv6style.jp/en/news/2003/0313_ntt.shtml
• NTT Unveils Next-Generation Services Based on New IP Networking Infrastructure http://www.nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com/wcs/frm/leaf?CID=onair/asabt/news/219314"the investment will not exceed 500 billion yen in the coming five years," Wada”, NTT President added.
• New strategy of NTT Communications includes IPv6 – 03/18/2003 http://www.ipv6style.jp/en/news/2003/0318_nttcom.shtml
• Nifty begins ADSL dual stack service – 03/17/2003 http://www.ipv6style.jp/en/news/2003/0317_nifty.shtml
• KDDI IPv6 trial includes mobile dual stack service – 03/17/2003 http://www.ipv6style.jp/en/news/2003/0317_kddi.shtml
• IPv6 Emerges as Key Part of NTT Com's Global Strategy, Company Exec. VP Says, Oct. 2002; http://www.nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com/wcs/frm/leaf?CID=onair/asabt/intvw/213315
• And many more…..
12© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mobile Internet Trends
13© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Evolution of Wireless Networking
FixedData
MobileVoice
Mobility with
NetworkConnectivity
(Data + Voice)
Past Paradigms Present Demand
“3G” WCDMALicensed Bands
WLANUnlicensed Bands
• Personal mobility• High data rate• Incremental infrastructure
• Full mobility• Modest data rate• All new infrastructure
Local Area- On campus- At home
Wide Area- On the road
14© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
WLANs and Mobile Services
10 Mbps
100 kbps
100 Mbps
Range
Mobile Speed
Peak
Data Rate
BlueTooth
2.4GHz
802.11b
2.4GHz Unlicensed
802.11a
5.5GHz Unlicensed
2.5/3G Wireless
~2GHz
High Performance/price
High ubiquity and mobility
9.6
28.8
64
114
144
384
2000
2400
GSM/PDC
PDC-P
CDMA
GPRS
CDMA1xRTT
W-CDMAmoving
W-CDMAstationary
CDMA1xEV/DO
Theoretical data
transmission speedkbps
1 Mbps
10 feet
2 mph
100 feet
10 mph
1 mile
30 mph
10 miles
60 mph
15© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Key Worldwide Mobile Operators by Technology
Europe: VodafoneT-mobilemmO2TelefonicaHutchinsonOrangeTIM
VerizonSprint PCS ATT WirelessCingular
Asia:NTT DoCoMoKDDIJTChina Mobile
33G Migration Strategy:G Migration Strategy:GSM/PDC GSM/PDC --> WCDMA> WCDMACDMA CDMA --> CDMA2000> CDMA2000
3G Subscribers in Japan:• KDDI 3G CDMA 1X: 9.5Million Subs. by Aug. 03• DoCoMo’s 3G FOMA over 500,000 by June 2003• J-Phone over 44,000 by May 2003
CDMA contributes to this dramaticCDMA contributes to this dramaticMobile subscribers growthMobile subscribers growth
16© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Public WLAN Market Opportunity
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$ m
illio
n
Rest of WorldAsia PacificWestern EuropeNorth America
Global PWLAN Hotspot Revenues
Source: Ovum, Jan. 2003
• New service opportunity• Low rollout costs• Value-added service
Higher ARPU & increased customer retention
Source: Gartner, Worldwide Locatio
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
HotSpots 12000 29000 82000 143000 210000 307000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Dec 200271000 133000 152000 154000 1610015000Revised May 2003
17© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mobile Internet Demand: Penetration and Revenue
81.0%
45.0%
7.4%
4.8%
2.9%
1.4%
1.2%
Japan
Korea(Rep.)
Singapore
Australia
Taiwan
NewZealand
HK
Mobile phone Internet
subscribers as % of total
mobile subscribers,
2002
Subscribers browsing the Internet from their mobile phone
19.3%
13.0%
10.6%
10.0%
5.0%
2.9%
2.5%
Japan
Singapore
Korea(Rep.)
Australia
NewZealand
Taiwan
HK
Mobile data service as percent of total
mobile revenue, 2002
Source: ITU adapted from various sources
18© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Step-by-step migration towards all IPv6 based Mobile network
GPRS GTP (encapsulation)
UE GPRS data bearer
IP RAN
RNC
SGSN
GGSN
IPIP PDN
ATM IP ATM IP
R5 IMSNode B
MGW
MSC-S
IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) data
R5 IP UTRAN (transport)
19© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
IPv6 Based Mobile Wireless Networking
WEBRASKA
Réseau Lab. DPR
Portail
Internet
GPRS Orange
WGB Wifi
ModemGPRS
AP Wifi
FT Router (PAT)
FT ADSL Modem
TCU
GPS
MRIPv4IPv4
IPv4
IPv4
IPv4
IPv4
IPv4/IPv6
IPv4
IPv6IPv4 IPv6
MIPv6 in GPRS v4 Tunnel
MIPv6 through 802.11b
IPv4HA
PC
IPv6IPv6
Telematics:Industry related to using
computers in concert with telecommunications systems.
This includes Internet access, as well as all types of networks that
rely on a telecommunications system to transport data.
“Telematics to Become $8 Billion Industry by 2005,
According to New Study from Allied Business Intelligence”
http://www.telematicsupdate.com
20© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
IPv6 Networks in Motion SolutionsMobile Router & Home Agent
21© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
IPv6 Networks in Motion SolutionsMobile Router & Home Agent
22© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
NREN Trends
23© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
NRENsNRENs –– GRID Applications GRID Applications GRIDs address the needs
of virtual communities and fosters the efficient exploitation of the huge investments in research infrastructures:
• High Energy Physics• Earth & Space
Observation• Environment• Bio-sciences and
Health• Industrial
design/simulation/ visualization
Physical Organization
Physical Organization
Physical OrganizationPhysical
OrganizationVirtual Organization
Virtual Organization
VirtualOrganization
Virtual Organization
View of Deployment
24© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Tier0/1 facility
Tier2 facility
10 Gbps link
2.5 Gbps link
622 Mbps link
Other link
Tier3 facility
Cambridge
Newcastle
Edinburgh
Oxford
Glasgow
Manchester
Cardiff
Soton
London
Belfast
DL
RAL Hinxton
ExampleScience Grids
25© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Projected Adoption Timelines for DoD
Source: Capt. R.V Dixon, DISA, Natv6TFSource: Capt. R.V Dixon, DISA, Natv6TF
26© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
IPv6 Based DISA Network
Source: Capt. R.V Dixon, DISA, Natv6TFSource: Capt. R.V Dixon, DISA, Natv6TF
27© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Future Trends in Information and Communication Technology
High SpeedHigh Speed(in quantity)(in quantity)
Core network: Tb/sCore network: Tb/sAccess: 1Gb/sAccess: 1Gb/sWireless: 100Mb/sWireless: 100Mb/sMemory: 50GBMemory: 50GB
Core network: 100s Tb/sCore network: 100s Tb/sAccess: 10Gb/sAccess: 10Gb/sWireless: 1Gb/sWireless: 1Gb/sMemory: 100GBMemory: 100GB
3 3 years from now 5 years from nowyears from now 5 years from now
AdvancedAdvanced(more reality)(more reality)
Quality GuaranteeQuality GuaranteeRealReal--time endtime end--toto--end end communicationcommunication
Intelligent InterfaceIntelligent InterfaceAutonomous Distributed Autonomous Distributed NetworkNetwork
SeamlessSeamless(Any where)(Any where)
SeemlessSeemless service within an service within an Operator (Wired/Wireless)Operator (Wired/Wireless) SeemlessSeemless service betweenservice between
Operators (wired/wireless)Operators (wired/wireless)
UbiquitousUbiquitous(Any thing)(Any thing)
Diversified TerminalsDiversified Terminals(Non(Non--PC terminal, PC terminal, Home Gateway)Home Gateway)
Wide spread use of wireless Wide spread use of wireless Tags (Tags (RFIDsRFIDs))
High High SecuritySecurity(No Anxiety)(No Anxiety)
High performance High performance Security and authenticationSecurity and authenticationFor heterogeneous networksFor heterogeneous networks
Automatic Restoration Automatic Restoration type defensetype defenseTracking information Tracking information sourcesource
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Thank YouThank You
29© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.