ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan European Trends In Servers And Storage Martin Hingley, ITCandor 40th CBE Conference 2013, Milan
Oct 19, 2014
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
European Trends In Servers And Storage
Martin Hingley, ITCandor
40th CBE Conference 2013, Milan
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Agenda
• Market Insights – technology trends, market data, user spending
• What’s Happening – vertical integration, changes in OEM policies
• Market Expectations – hardware forecast, policy effects
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Technology trends
• Physical product reselling is being replace with ‘virtual’ services
• Cloud services and risk of channel disintermediation
• Mainframe, Unix and x86 server mix
• Converged Infrastructure and Integrated Systems replace ‘industry standard’ components
• A shift in OEM policies threaten 3rd party maintainers in Europe
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Server
x86 ratios increased after the Credit Crunch HP has a stronger lead in EMEA
There are 15M Servers installed in EMEA
Other 30.8%
Bull 5.0% Dell
13.8%
IBM 18.8%
HP 26.3%
<Q213 Total: €13.8B €0
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Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213
x86
RISC/Itanium
System z
EMEA Server Spending (€B) by Quarter 2008-2013
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Storage
EMC leads, with NetApp catching Big Arrays in decline, Innovation growing
There are 3M storage arrays installed in EMEA
EMC 19.9%
NetApp 16.5%
HP 15.4%
IBM 12.8%
Other 27.1%
<Q213 Total: €6.3B €0
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Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 0
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Revenue ($m)
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EMEA Storage Spending (€B) and Units - 2008-2013
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Enterprise Network
EMC maintains a substantial lead HP and others focus on Open standards
Other 39.3%
Cisco 40.4%
<Q213 Total: €14.0B
EMEA Network Spending (€B) by Quarter 2008-2013
€3,000
€3,500
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Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Data Centre spending by type
• 33.2% Hardware
• 6.1% Software (excluding tools and applications)
• 8.3% Services
• 5.0% Power/Cooling
• 47.4% Internal Staff
• Reducing internal spending is a key supplier strategy
• Hardware declines proportionately over time
Storage 9.7%
Networking 10.1%
Internal Staff 47.4%
Server 13.4%
World <Q213 Total: $289B
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Vertical, Horizontal and Matrix Integration
• Vertical Integration was killed by anti-trust v IBM
• Horizontal Integration allowed more specialisation
• Matrix Integration involves Open designs and helping customers avoid lock-in
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
IBM Policy Changes
• Changes machine code licenses hotly contended by customers and 3rd party maintainers in Europe
• Covers System z, Power and Storage
• System x excluded
• Protects its IP strongly
• Successful against Turbo Hercules, Neon, T3 in 2011
• A strong move towards integrated systems with PureSystem
IBM EMEA System Revenues (€B) by Quarter 2008-2013
Traditionally strong 3rd party maintenance More software approaches
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Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213
System z
System x
Power
Network
Storage System
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Oracle Policy Changes
• Sues Rimini Street in US for illegal software use
• Software maintenance has to be through a valid support contract
• EU held up Sun acquisition. Especially over MySQL and Open Source issues
• Is focusing on workload-optimised systems, rather than horizontal offerings
Sun had strong 3rd party maintenance Oracle is focused on solutions
Sun EMEA System Revenues (€B) by Quarter 2008-2013
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Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213
Sparc Server
Sun x86 Server
Storage System
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Cisco Policy Changes
• Sparing – kit only valid if software bought from Cisco or authorised partner
• In EEC and Switzerland users can buy 2nd hand if from a Cisco (or authorised partner) supplied customer in the region
• License agreement does not transfer ownership
• Partners extensively upstream – NetApp, EMC, IBM, HDS, VMware
Fabric-based UCS launched in 2008 An integrated approach in servers
Cisco EMEA System Revenues (€B) by Quarter 2008-2013
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Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213
Networking
Server
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Data Centre spending forecast
Networking will slowly overtake servers Storage will eventually recover
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2018 2016 2017 2018
Networking
Storage
Server
EMEA Data Center Product Revenue (€B) Forecast by Quarter 2008-2018
ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
The Effects of policy changes on the TAM
• Data Centre strategies focus on integration, virtualisation and the Cloud
• In servers x86 chips predominate, but not all are ‘industry standard’
• Suppliers help users cut down the 47% internal staff costs through automation
• Hardware will decline in favour of software and services
• Matrix Integration is a fundamental change in supplier strategy
• IBM, Cisco, Oracle and others are changing the concept of ownership through license agreements with users
• The hardware market will stay strong - €34B in 2013, €33B in 2018
• Despite potential help from the EU the TAM for 3rd party maintenance will be cut