Jon Peddie Research 1 AUGMENTED REALITY Trends and Opportunities
Apr 05, 2017
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AUGMENTED REALITY
Trends and Opportunities
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Jon Peddie Research JPR Focuses on visualization, graphics, and forms of reality.
We provide consulting and market research, are advisors to industry
leaders and investors.
We offer bi-weekly report, various digital technology market studies.
We also do product testing and benchmarking.
And conduct and participate at Conferences.
The Business of Multimedia and Visual Magic
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What’s deployed today, what’s
going to be deployed in the
next few years?
Deployment
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Taxonomy of AR
Wearable devices
Helmets
Augmented Reality systems
Non-wearable devices
Mobile devices(Smartphone, tablet)
Head-updisplays
Headsets
Consumer Commercial
Indoors
outdoors
Factory installed
Retro-fit
Consumer Commercial
Indoors
outdoors
Indoors
outdoors
Add-on Integrated
Consumer Commercial
Indoors
outdoors
Indoors
outdoorsoutdoors
Stationary devices(Projectors,TV, PC, etc.)
Contacts
You can get it a lot of ways,
and size does fit all
Deployment
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Suppliers by Segment
• Contact lens—7 suppliers or developers
• Helmet—7+ suppliers
• HUD—10+ suppliers
• Smart-glasses • Integrated
• Commercial—26 suppliers
• Consumer—17 suppliers
• Add-on—14 suppliers
• Projectors (other than HUD) 3
• Specialized and other—6+ developers or suppliers
Does the word CRAZY come to mind?
Deployment
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Examples
Helmet Smart glasses – integrated-
Commercial/Industrial Smart glasses – integrated-
Consummer Smart glasses –
add-on HUD Projection Contact lens
Deployment
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Announced Helmet
Smart glasses – integrated-
Commercial/Industrial Smart glasses – integrated-
Consummer Smart glasses –
add-on HUD Projection Contact lens BAE systems
Striker APX Labs Microsoft
Hololens Brilliant Service Beijing Palo Alto
Tech Carrobot CastAR EPGL
BMW Atheer Mirage
Innovations Dlodlo Chipsip Garmin Hololamp Ghent
University
Cinoptics Brother
Industries Optinvent GlassUp Coretronic Hudway Realview Google
C-Thru Cannon Osterhout Design
Group Intel Composyt Light Labs Eurogiciel Iris Sensics Gunnar
Daqri Caputer Seer Oxsight Intel Recon Garmin Varia Vision Kshioe Innovega
Elbit Systems Coretronic Penny Kopin Solos Gold Tek Foxconn Mygoflight Ocumetics
Intelligent
Cranium Epson PhaseSpace Laforge Lenovo Navdy Samsung
Eveno Eyes On
(Epson) Shenzhen Topsky
Digital LusoVU eyespeak Lumus Pioneer Sony
Fujitsu Sony Luxottica Oakley Mad Gaze Springteq
Google Glass Sulon Cortex Magic Leap Occipital WayRay
IMMY Trivisio Mirama Brilliant Service Orcam
Laster
Technologies Vrvana MRK Imagine Mobile Augmented Seebright
Meta Vuzix Murata Senth IN1
NVIS QD Laser Telepathy
RideOn Vufine
Six-15 Westunits
Solos
Zeiss
Deployment
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Shipping Helmet
Smart glasses – integrated-
Commercial/Industrial Smart glasses – integrated-
Consummer Smart glasses –
add-on HUD Projection Contact lens BAE systems
Striker APX Labs Microsoft
Hololens Brilliant Service Beijing Palo Alto
Tech Carrobot CastAR EPGL
BMW Atheer Mirage
Innovations Dlodlo Chipsip Garmin Hololamp Ghent
University
Cinoptics Brother
Industries Optinvent GlassUp Coretronic Hudway Realview Google
C-Thru Cannon Osterhout Design
Group Intel Composyt Light Labs Eurogiciel Iris Sensics Gunnar
Daqri Caputer Seer Oxsight Intel Recon Garmin Varia Vision Kshioe Innovega
Elbit Systems Coretronic Penny Kopin Solos Gold Tek Foxconn Mygoflight Ocumetics
Intelligent
Cranium Epson PhaseSpace Laforge Lenovo Navdy Samsung
Eveno Eyes On
(Epson) Shenzhen Topsky
Digital LusoVU eyespeak Lumus Pioneer Sony
Fujitsu Sony Luxottica Oakley Mad Gaze Springteq
Google Glass Sulon Cortex Magic Leap Occipital WayRay
IMMY Trivisio Mirama Brilliant Service Orcam
Laster
Technologies Vrvana MRK Imagine Mobile Augmented Seebright
Meta Vuzix Murata Senth IN1
NVIS QD Laser Telepathy
RideOn Vufine
Six-15 Westunits
Solos
Zeiss
Deployment
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Shipping later this year . . . Helmet
Smart glasses – integrated-
Commercial/Industrial Smart glasses – integrated-
Consummer Smart glasses –
add-on HUD Projection Contact lens BAE systems
Striker APX Labs Microsoft
Hololens Brilliant Service Beijing Palo Alto
Tech Carrobot CastAR EPGL
BMW Atheer Mirage
Innovations Dlodlo Chipsip Garmin Hololamp Ghent
University
Cinoptics Brother
Industries Optinvent GlassUp Coretronic Hudway Realview Google
C-Thru Cannon Osterhout Design
Group Intel Composyt Light Labs Eurogiciel Iris Sensics Gunnar
Daqri Caputer Seer Oxsight Intel Recon Garmin Varia Vision Kshioe Innovega
Elbit Systems Coretronic Penny Kopin Solos Gold Tek Foxconn Mygoflight Ocumetics
Intelligent
Cranium Epson PhaseSpace Laforge Lenovo Navdy Samsung
Eveno Eyes On
(Epson) Shenzhen Topsky
Digital LusoVU eyespeak Lumus Pioneer Sony
Fujitsu Sony Luxottica Oakley Mad Gaze Springteq
Google Glass Sulon Cortex Magic Leap Occipital WayRay
IMMY Trivisio Mirama Brilliant Service Orcam
Laster
Technologies Vrvana MRK Imagine Mobile Augmented Seebright
Meta Vuzix Murata Senth IN1
NVIS QD Laser Telepathy
RideOn Vufine
Six-15 Westunits
Solos
Zeiss
Deployment
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Companies VC find interesting
Deployment
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What’s the size of the market
today and in the next few
years?
Market
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Market Forecast Hardware M units 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
HMD Units Sold (IHS) 0.05 0.13 0.30 2.30 6.60 0 0 0
HMD Unit Sold (Yano
Research) 0.15 0.45 1.60 7.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0
Google Glass Units Sold
(BI Insider) 0 0 0.83 2.47 3.74 10.62 21.15 0
Smart Glasses Sold (Berg
Research) 0 0.10 0 0 7.68 0.00 0.00 0
AR Wearable Devices
Sold (Markets &
Markets) 0.92 12.20 16.10 21.20 27.90 36.80 48.50 0
HMD Units Sold
(Gartner) 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.00 0
JPR (Grey Hair
Perspective) 0.35 0.80 1.20 1.80 2.40 3.00 4.50 7.50
Pick the forecast you like best – alternative facts
Market
In 2019 ABI Research believes AR will grow to reach 53% of a $57 billion market
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Augmented Reality markets $90 billion in 2020
AR Hardware (tMkt)
aCommerce (tMkt)
AR Data
AR Voice
AR Film/TV (tMkt)
Enterprise AR
AR adspend
AR Consumer
AR Games (tMkt) AR Parks
Source: Digi-Capital, 2016
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Start 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Companies 0 1 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 12
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Companies
Project
Glass lanuched
Esquire Magazine
features augmented reality
Hololens
Pokemon Go
Too many suppliers chasing too few customers - no market can sustain this many companies
Market
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Consumers vs. Industrial/Military/Scientific
So far the AR market has no consumer wearable segment – first products in late 2017 – 2018.
HUDs are an exception and non-wearable.
For consumers to accept AR, it has to be inconspicuous, and non-geeky – nothing more than a pair of sun or prescription glasses. Helmets are the exception.
Market
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0
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
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Augmented Reality Displays
Smart-glasses
Contact-lens
AR usage (M)
M users
Market
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Importance of vision to the
success of AR
Vision
AR is much more complicated than VR because it merges the real world - Jon Peddie 2014
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Seeing AR Vision
Video
Combiner
Computer generated
image
Light-
blocking
display
CCamera
Real
world
view
Real
world
view
Optical see-through Video see-through
Computer generated
image
Transparent
optical
combiner
CCamera
Positioning and
Recording system
Cloud
Projector
This could be
a smartphone
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Full Scale AR Requires Vision Capture Vision
Type/Feature Headphone Mic Display Camera
Audio Yes Maybe No No
Data Maybe Maybe Yes Maybe
Data & Location (&
HUD) Yes Yes Yes Probably
Environmentally aware optical see
thru Yes Yes Yes Yes
Video see thru Yes Yes Yes Yes
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Camera Contributions to AR
Pose – where exactly is the camera looking
Capture – personal black box
Accurate registration of Pokemon, er, data to real world
Augmentation of rate of change and attitude data
SLAM needs lots of accurate markerless data points – from a camera (preferably three cameras)
Vision
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Cameras
Where to mount, and power all those AR cameras
• 3D sensing (structured light and/or TOF)
• IR
• Rear view
• Wide FOV if video see-through
And remember, one size does not fit all - AR is for everyone, and most are different
Vision
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Important challenges and trends
that will play a major role in
determining the rate of growth of
the market
Challenges
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Dangers of AR
• 60% think smartphones make them safer, and take more risks because they rely on their phone to keep them safe.
• Over 55% advanced internet users would like to use AR glasses to light up dark surroundings in order to highlight potentially dangerous objects, and/or people approaching.
• Change how the environment looks (no trash, graffiti, signs)
Challenges
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Seeing things that aren’t there Challenges
Risk of information overload – learning how to mitigate
What the terminator saw What you might see
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Potential problems
• Biggest problem now involves coming up with designs that are not conspicuous (why Google Glass failed). • AR has a foundation in science, but not in commerce (but coming rapidly).
Many “experts” and reporters look at something from ODG or Atheer – and say, “look, consumer AR” – but nobody would wear something like that going to lunch with a friend.
• What are the biggest problems does AR solve? • Ignorance (when you can’t recall a name or fact without a computer)
• Stupidity – I lost my way, where am I?
• Personal “Black Box” – you could record every living moment of your life. Everything you’re looking at – like being mugged, harassed by a cop, being hit by another car, etc. You become The “Fair Witness, described by Robert A. Heinlein, “In Stranger in a Strange Land.”
Challenges
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Benefits of AR
Instant expertise. Could we download whatever skills we wanted, needed?
Such capability, assuming one was willing to do the actual work, could eliminate the mismatch between demand for, and availability of, specialized skilled personal.
It could also eliminate the time to go to (or have come to you) needed help. A new expression of instant gratification.
Challenges
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The AR market is growing in industry and scientific, and will be huge in consumer
However, AR is very difficult technically, and challenging esthetically for the commercial market
Image sensors, ISPs, VPUs, are critical to the success of AR, have to be very high resolution, and
very fast, and not expensive or use much power - no problem, right.
Two promo items (now’s the time to head to the rest room)
• Buy my book, Augmented Reality: Where We All Will Live
(http://www.springer.com/gb/book/9783319545011)
• Buy our report: Visual Processing Unit Report - samples on the table
• Other resources: http://www.augmentedreality.org/ , http://www.arglassesguide.com/
Summary