Eliminate the CA Drought

Prolonged Drought and theEnd of Californias CentralValley AgricultureIf it could happen, it will.James A. Cunningham, Ph.D.April 20151Opening CommentFew substances are more important than water. Without it, humans die within threeor four days.Water, as it continually moves between its three phases, largely controls the weather and the temperature of the planet. Without water, there would be no plants, no food, no life of any kind and the earth would be as dead as a brick.And yet most of us take it for granted. Turn a valve and there it is. As much as you might want. Clean as a mountain spring.SummaryEven without invoking possible contributions from global warming,! a reasonableprobability e"ists that the present California drought could last for many additionalyears. #f this occurs, an unprecedented disaster will unfold in our state. The only viable insurance against such an event would be the creation of new sources of water for the state. $et aside from relatively small pro%ects in desalination of sea water, new water sources are not considered by any agencies or organi&ations in charge of or interested in water 'uality, its sources or its distribution. And yet, ironically, a high(capacity high('uality relatively low(cost new(source does e"ist)the massive Columbia *iver which now discharges its fresh water into the +acific ,cean at 'uantities e"ceeding ((by a factor of four((the -tate.s total yearly water withdrawal and transfer rates. For this new source, see page /0 now.Rain in California*ainfall across the state of California is controlled by four main factors, the season or time of the year, the particular latitude and land elevation, and more importantly the conditions present in our vast neighbor to the west, the cool and vast +acific ,cean. #n central and southern California, it only rains in the winter, essentially only during ,ctober through 1arch. Come visit us in the summer and leave your umbrella at home. The far northern portions of the state might get some limited rain in the summer. 2ut rainfall is highly dependent on latitude with the heavily forested 3orth getting 40 to /55 inches per year and the far south 1o%avi 6esert east of 7os Angeles getting typically less than 0 inches.*ain invariably moves in from the easterly flowing winds from the ,cean.2ut if a high pressure ocean(region builds, the moisture moves north and we end up hot and dry. 7ike now.The topography of the state also has ma%or effects. This is shown below. 2The green Central 8alley region shown below is trapped between two mountain ranges, the Coastal *ange 1ountains with elevations about /555 to 9555 feet and the -ierras rising to /5,555 feet or more. The precipitation in the high mountains is mainly in the form of snowThe average rainfall around the state is shown below. The Central 8alley normally receives 0 to /0 inches per season with the e"treme northern portion en%oying as much as 95 inches.With 95 inches, so called dry farming can be successfully practiced without irrigation. Crops such as grapes, olives, apples, grains, s'uash and potatoes maybe grown. 32ut with irrigation providing some 45(inches of e'uivalent rain, the bounty of foodin the entire California Central 8alley is indeed robust. And thus far, even through the current four years of drought, the 8alley has maintained its massive food production by ground(water irrigation. The region produces some 455 sepatrte food crops genertaing revenues from:/; to :95 billion per year, and supplying about < of the table food consumed in the =-. The region produed :/> million of almonds in 95/9, >>? of the olives, >0? of the celery, >>? of the walnuts, ;>? ofthe lemons, and >5? of the avacados, to name only a few items.The Four ear Draught in CaliforniaEveryone living in California knows about the drought. Annual rainfall has dropped roughly in half. -ome workers in the field claim that 95/4 was the driest year on record.4At the same time, mountain snow depths have plummeted here, yet greatly increased in the eastern states. -ee rain map below for 95/4. +recipitation in the =- is now far less uniform.*ainfall in the Central 8alley has also dropped at least in half during the last season. 6uring the past two years, the -tate as allocated no surface water to the Central 8alley. 2ut this has been made up by massive increases of ground(water pumping. 2ut the total amounts are not accurately known.!round "ater and Desperate #o$es3ormally, some surface water transfers are made so that ground water makes up 4@? of irrigation needs, and during dry years about A@?. The Central 8alley pumps from some 955,555 wells. 3ow many hundreds of wells have gone dry. Andthe land is sinking. The small town of +alm 6esert /95(miles east of 7os Angeles has sunk two feet since />>0.According to the 7A Times 4B/@B95/0. +arts of the -an Coa'uin 8alley are deflating like a tire with a slow leak as growers pull more and more water from the ground. The land subsidence is cracking irrigation canals, buckling roads and permanently depleting storage space in the vast a'uifer that underlies CaliforniaDs heartland.!5The 3ational Eeographic reported last August 95/A that some farmers in the Central 8alley are sinking wells over /555(feet deep at costs over :455,555. +art of the driving force for such action is crops with high water needs.For e"ample, it is claimed that a single almond re'uires a gallon of water for its formation. 2etter get your almonds now while you can.The -tate overall also has more than @55,555 wells pumping stored underground water, and numerous percolation ponds dot the 2ay Area landscape in an attempt replenish this source.-uch a pond in -an Cose may be seen below. =nfortunately most of these ponds have been dry during the past four years. The Drought-ome blame the Western -tate.s drought on global warming. Climate scientists suggest, While some regions are likely to get wetter as the world warms, other regions that are already on the dry side are likely to get drier.Could be% 2ut in reality, the weather and rainfall amounts have always been widely variable.#n the chart shown below& beginning around />/>& we note a /0(year drought in California. The +16# value used here is an inde" which considers both rainfall and temperature. 2ack then in />/>, we had only 4.4 million people in the -tate. 3ow we have 4> million people and a huge Central 8alley agricultural region that supplies half of the nation.s fruit, vegetables and nuts. Prolonged droughts 'ill no' come much harder%6-tudies of tree rings show that we have e"perienced several draughts lasting as long as 955(years. ,ne beginning in the year @05 and another around //55. As if /0(years isn.t long enough to return the Central 8alley back to its more natural state)desert."hen a really serious 'ater shortage appears& the people in the cities 'ill get the surface 'ater& not the farmers. -ee long term weather and drought chart below.7Rainfall Varia(ility in California*ain amounts vary widely in our many micro climates. Fere, in my bedroom community of -aratoga G-ilicon 8alleyH we usually get an average of 90 inches of rain. GThis season is less, about /> inches.H The -an Cose airport, only /A(miles from here e"pects only /0 inches$et the amount of rain in the opposite direction, up into the -anta Cru& mountains in a little village called 2oulder Creek about 99 miles from here, normally e"pects a thunderous A> inches per year. -'uaw 8alley up in our -ierra 3evada 1ountains to the east where people, far younger than me, ski in the winter, averages 9A; inches of snow in the usual winter. -ome report this number as high as A09 inches, -'uaw 8alley is only /0@(miles by car from my house.-eattle in Washington -tate, @A@(miles to the north by car from my house, normally averages a lush 4@ inches a year, A@ in 95/A. +arts of the city are swamp.-ee below the drought rainfall during the last season. 3ote that its distribution is far more variable and anomalous than during normal years.8 The A)ueduct Systems in CaliforniaCalifornia has the most e"tensive a'ueduct and stored water system in the world.+art of it taps the -an Coa'uin *iver, which is usually fed from mountain snow melting in the spring and summer. The system was built largely during the early portion of past 05(years. Early goals were to assure the 7os Angeles region an ade'uate supply.-hown below are the vast tributaries crossing the relatively dry Central 8alley and supplying the -an Coa'uin *iver.2elow is shown the a'ua duct system. #ts water sources include 7ake -hasta in the north, the -an Francisco 6elta fresh(water portion, the -an Coa'uin river, various lakes, rivers and dams some of which are in the mountains, some ground water, and the Colorado river which is the only out of state source.9The larger portion of the system is called the California -tate Water +ro%ect G-W+H.#n wet years, it allocates roughly 90? of its water to agriculture. 2y Canuary 4/, 95/0, The snowpack was at 90? of normal levels, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. 1any parts of the region reportedly did not even have enough snow to measure.!-an Francisco gets its fresh water from a system called the Fetch Fetchy. At the end of 1arch 95/0, the reservoir was in reasonable shape at I@? of its capacity. 10#n general, the allocation of California water from these many sources varies with the seasons and the year, but may be roughly appreciated in the pie chart below. This chart shows usage before the current drought.3ote that urban use is only/5?.2ut this represents conditions before the drought. 6uring the last two years water transfers to agriculture have been cut off. The total water transfers now arise from @5? surface and 95? ground sources.11"ho is in Charge*A number of state, federal and local agencies allocate and control the water. These includeJ The 2ureau of *eclamation, Association of California Water Agencies, California Water 6istricts, 8arious +rivate Water Companies, The -tate Eovernment, The 6epartment of the Water *esources, The E+A, The California +ublic =tilities Commission, The Army Corp of Engineers, and the California Water Kuality Control 2oard.-oL Are we being well taken care ifL +e' "ater Program Announced #arch ,-& ,-./According to the -C 1ercury 3ews, Eov. 2rown announced a new, one billion dollar package of emergency legislation meant to help California weather its crippling drought.!*emarkably, two thirds of the spending, or :I55 million, is earmarked for flood control pro%ects. $es, you read that correctly((flood control! ,ther funds are dedicated to desalination pro%ects. The Eovernor also insisted that home owners water their grass only two times a week. 2ut he didn.t mention how long we could water each time.-peaking of desalination, -an 6iego recently completed a reverse osmosis plant which will deliver 05 million gallons of water a day. That output is 5./? of the water use in California in 9550. #t will be delivered to utilities at a cost of about :5.55; per gallon which already e"ceeds by I5? the typical residential delivered water price of about :5.550 per gallon.,n April /, the Eovernor announced a state(wide plan to reduce water consumption by 90?, enforced partially by increasing water usage rates.0t has not occurred to !o$% 1ro'n to (uild a ne' a)ueduct to ne' 'ater sources* 2i3e his father supported (ac3 in the .4/-s* California is currently drying up with a prolonged draught. The Central 8alley agriculture could disappear. *emarkably, the -tate has no viable plans to alleviate this problem. ,ur leaders would rather build a fast train to 7.A. for :I@ billion. #f you like almonds and walnuts, better stock up now.12According to 5ay Famiglietti& a senior 'ater scientist at the +ASA 5et Propulsion 2a(oratory6Caltech and a professor of Earth system science at 7C 0r$ine8!tatewide, we"#e $een dropping more than 12 million acre%feet of total water &earl& since 2011. 'oughl& two%thirds of these losses are attri$uta$le to groundwater pumping for agricultural irrigation in the Central (alle&. )armers ha#e little choice $ut to pump more groundwater during droughts, especiall& when their surface water allocations ha#e $een slashed *0+ to 100+. ,ut these pumping rates are e-cessi#e and unsustaina$le. .ells are running dr&. In some areasof the Central (alle&, the land is sin/ing $& one foot or more per &ear.Water restrictions are %ust a taste of whatDs to come for CaliforniaAs difficult as it ma& $e to face, the simple fact is that California is running out of water 0 and the pro$lem started $efore our current drought. 1A!A data re#eal that total water storage in California has $een in stead& decline since at least 2002, when satellite%$ased monitoring $egan, although groundwater depletion has $een going onsince the earl& 20th centur&.Right now the state has only about one year of water supply left in its reservoirs, and our strategic $ac/up suppl&, groundwater, is rapidl& disappearing. California has no contingenc& plan for a persistent drought li/e this one 2let alone a 20%plus%&ear mega%drought3, e-cept, apparentl&, sta&ing in emergenc& mode and pra&ing for rain.4The California Drought. 2eadership*1y good friend Ed Ward and # have attended several well attended meetings at -tanford =niversity on the sub%ect of the drought in California. They have all been disappointing)heavy on description of the problem)virtually absent on reasonable solutions. The last one we attended was the more disappointing. #t was called The California 6raught +anel. Three people associated with -tanford =niversity made presentationsJ a law professor, a man in charge of facilities at -tanford, and one +h.6. student in Environmental -cience. The literature passed out was blatant in its plea for funding so that -tanford could innovate! and solve 13the problem. Pro$iding sufficient 'ater for California re)uires 3no'n engineering& not ne' science% The Romans (uilt a)ueducts for fresh 'ater ,--- years ago%The *oman a'ueduct system e"tended a total of 90@ miles, lasted for /955 years and delivered clean water using no electricity.#n response to the last meeting, paraphrasing, Ed wrote portions of the comments belowMMThe problem that must be addressed is the transport of fresh water from areas where it e"ists to areas where itDs needed. Water transport has been a California issue since the early />55Ds. #n the late />05Ds the issue was addressed with the construction of the California a'ueduct system supplying water to all of Californiafrom where it e"isted to where it was needed. The system has been essential to thegrowth and economy of the state. Fortunately, Eov. +at 2rown had the foresight tolook beyond the naysayers of the times and see through the construction of the system. The problem of today is that the water is no longer where it used to be. California must look to where it is now. The Colum(ia Ri$er9at the Oregon 6 "ashington State 1order% A Potential +e' Source of "ater for CaliforniaOne source is the Colum(ia Ri$er 'hich currently discharges on a$erage ,:/&--- cu ft6sec ;, million gal 6sec