Electrowatt-Ekono Company Presentation 3 Unique track record 40,000 MW in thermal power and CHP 60,000 MW in hydro power 10,000 MW in nuclear power More than 110,000 MW installed power

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Competence. Service. Solutions.Competence. Service. Solutions.

Electrowatt-Ekono Company PresentationElectrowatt-Ekono Company Presentation

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5277 employeesEUR 479 million

Electrowatt-Ekono, a leading international consultingand engineering group in the energy field

Management consulting, powerand heat, renewable energy, hydropower, oil & gas1485 energy specialists in 22 countriesNet sales EUR 147 million

Member of the Jaakko Pöyry Group

Energy

Forest

Infrastructure& Environment

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Unique track record

40,000 MW in thermal powerand CHP 60,000 MW in hydro power10,000 MW in nuclear power

More than 110,000 MW installed powerplant capacity with Electrowatt-Ekonoinvolvement

9,000,000 t/year of waste are being treated in plants where Electrowatt-Ekono has been involved

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Global network = EE offices= other JP offices

KarlstadKarlstadOsloOsloGothenburgGothenburgHamburgHamburgOxfordOxfordLondonLondonHorshamHorshamHeidenauHeidenauParisParisLyon Lyon MadridMadrid

HelsinkiHelsinkiSt PetersburgSt PetersburgTallinnTallinnVilniusVilniusMoscowMoscowLLóóddźźCracowCracowMannheimMannheimMunichMunichLorrachLorrachZurichZurichMilanoMilano

AppletonAppleton

JakartaJakarta

São PauloSão Paulo

DurbanDurban

BeijingBeijing

MontrealMontreal

ShanghaiShanghai

Melbourne

New DelhiNew Delhi

TokyoTokyoSeoulSeoul

Kuala LumpurKuala Lumpur

Auckland

ManilaManila

TaipeiTaipei

BangkokBangkok

Hanoi

ValenciaValencia

Buenos AiresBuenos Aires

Mexico CityMexico City

LimaLima

New YorkNew York

VancouverVancouver

QatarQatarRiyadhRiyadh

MuscatMuscat

TeheranTeheran

SingaporeSingapore

DubaiDubaiAbu Abu DhabiDhabi

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Business areas and services

Renewable Power and Heat

Hydropower

on project developmentand implementation,

improvementand rehabilitation,

operation &maintenance

Regional Business

ManagementConsulting

on energy business and the environment

Integrated approach

Focus

Focus

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The unique know-how combinationguarantees future-oriented, optimized solutions

Core competence of Electrowatt-Ekono Consulting

StrategyStrategy Businessdevelopment

Businessdevelopment ImplementationImplementation OperationOperation

Management consulting

Technology consulting

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Wind power projects in Central America

Guatemala 15 MW– Feasibility study to be completed in a few weeks

Panama 80 MW– Pre-feasibility study completed in August– Feasibility study to be started

• Partnership financing for the Feasibility study sought

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Guatemala

Developer: Empresa Electrica Buenos Aires S.A. (EEBA)

Size: 15 to 20 MWPhase:

– Wind measurements carried out for several years– Several previous studies conducted– Turbine type: Winwind 1 MW or Vestas 660 kW (second-hand)– Negotiations for PPA going on with COMEGSA– Negotiations for debt financing going on with CABEI

Partnership financing was granted for the finalising and updating of Feasibility StudyPartners: EEBA, Winwind, FMI, Electrowatt-Ekono

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The wind farm siteVolcan de Pacaya (2500 m)

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The wind farm site

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Previous studies – an example

UNEP / Solar and Wind EnergyResource Assessment (SWERA)Wind Resource map preparedwith MesoMap software (TrueWind Solutions, USA)Estimated wind power density on site 600 – 800 W/m2 at 50 m

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Our results – wind power density

Power density (Measured vs. WAsP predicted)

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Height (m)

Pow

er d

ensi

ty (W

/m²)

WAsP (15m)

WAsP (30m)

Measured

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Wind speed and wind direction distributions

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Seasonal variations

Monthly average wind speeds at heights 30m and 15m

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

July 98 Nov 98 March 99 July 99 Nov 99 March 00 July 00 Nov 00 March 01 July 01

Time

Spe

ed (m

/s)

Spd1 (30m )Spd2 (30m)Spd3 (15m)

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Reference data / INSIVUMEH 1990 - 2004

Yearly variation in average wind speeds

-30 %

-20 %

-10 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Time

Diffe

renc

e fro

m 1

5-ye

ar a

vera

ge

New anemometer type

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Turbulence

Relatively high turbulence intensity also at high wind speedsWind speeds fluctuate rapidly between calm and 15-20 m/s (also during the wind season)All three measurements show similar behaviour

Wind speed TImin TImax

5 m/s 10 % 40 %

10 m/s 11 % 24 %

15 m/s 12 % 20 %

> 20 m/s 9 % 16 %

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Production estimates – uncertainty analysis

Worst case

Best case

Fit of the measured wind speed data with Weibull distribution 0.98 1.02

Vertical extrapolation of the wind speed from 30 m to 56 m 0.98 1.02

Unrepresentativity (and uncertainty) of the actual measurement site 0.9 1.02

Anemometer calibration and/or worn bearings 0.95 1.1

Unrepresentativity of the measurement period 0.97 1.03

Power curve correction factor for lower air density etc. 0.95 0.98

Correction factor for the power curve cut-out hysteresis 0.95 1.01

Correction factor for transformer and cable losses 0.95 0.97

Technical availability correction factor 0.95 0.98

Correction factor for the wind farm array losses 0.96 1.0

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Pending issues

Grid connection study (EEBA)The actual site area to be defined more precisely (EEBA)PPA terms still unclear (price, term) (EEBA)Investment cost estimates seem too high (EEBA, EWE)Financing options (EEBA, EWE)Cash flow analysis to be completedComparison of investment alternatives: second-hand vs. new turbines

– According to initial analysis new turbines are more profitable– Profitability of both alternatives still uncertain

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Conclusions

Wind resource probably not the best in Guatemala, but stillsufficientThe site is technically easy to constructProject size is ”suitable” for the site and as the first project in the countryNo major environmental hurdlesFinancial feasibility still a question markPending issues to be clarified in cooperation with EEBA and WinwindStudy to be ready by the end of October?

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Panama

Developer: Santa Fe Energy S.A. (SFE) and LOMOSA S.A.

Size: 80 MWPhase:

– Wind measurements carried out for two years at one location, 20 m– Pre-feasibility study conducted for 20 MW by Lahmeyer in 2002– Turbine type: Winwind 1 MW– Negotiations for PPA going on– EIA to be finalised by January 2006

Partnership financing was granted for the finalising and updating of Pre-Feasibility StudyPartners: SFE, LOMOSA, Winwind, Electrowatt-Ekono

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Areas where concessionshave been granted to thedevelopers

The wind farm site

Province of Veraguas50 km north of SantiagoSite area > 20 km2Elevation 1000 to 1400 m a.s.l.

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Wind speed and wind direction distributions

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Wind speed and wind direction distributions

Windy season

(December-April)

”Calm” season

(May-November)

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Seasonal variations

Monthly average wind speeds at 20 m height

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

m/s

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Turbulence

Lower turbulence intensity than at Guatemala siteVery rapid wind speed fluctuations also at this site

Wind speed TImin TImax

5 m/s 20 % 40 %

10 m/s 14 % 24 %

15 m/s 10 % 16 %

> 20 m/s 7 % 14 %

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Production estimates – uncertainty analysis

Worst case

Best case

Poor fit of the measured wind speed data with Weibull distribution 0.85 0.95

Vertical extrapolation of the wind speed from 20 m to 70 m 0.9 1.1

Unrepresentativity (and uncertainty) of the actual measurement site 0.9 1.1

Anemometer calibration and/or worn bearings 0.95 1.05

Unrepresentativity of the measurement period 0.9 1.1

Power curve correction factor for lower air density etc. 0.95 0.98

Correction factor for the power curve cut-out hysteresis 0.9 1.03

Correction factor for transformer and cable losses 0.95 0.97

Technical availability correction factor 0.92 0.98

Correction factor for the wind farm array losses 0.95 0.98

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Conclusions

Wind resource extremely good– Capacity factor maybe 0.45 to 0.50, still very big uncertainty

Large utilizable area (> 20 km2)No major environmental hurdlesCommitted developers and strong governmental supportInitial estimate for IRR > 20 % even without carbon creditsTechnically and financially extremely challenging project

– High winds, complex terrain, tropical climate– Big project, far from the transmission grid, large investment

Risks need to be carefully studied and mitigated to achievefinancier confidence in the project

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Major issues to be clarified in the Feasibility Study

Detailed wind resource assessment– Wind speeds at hub height– Wind speeds in different parts of the site area– Wind direction distribution– Extreme winds => Turbine specifications !!– Weather constraints for construction

Site topography (part of the topographic data missing)EIA and permitsGrid connection and PPA termsFinancing optionsCash flow analysis

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Continuation

Partnership financing is sought for the Feasibility Study and Environmental Impact Assessment

– Developers investing EUR 100.000– 100.000 sought from the Partnership

Potential international co-developer / investor identifiedNext steps:

– Environmental Impact Assessment– Wind measurements on several locations within the area– Detailed Feasibility Study, including:

• Financing and PPA• Grid connection• Production and profitability analysis• Topographic studies, conceptual study for civil works, etc.