Electromobility: a trigger for market success of carsharing?

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Electromobility: a trigger for market

success of carsharing?

Webinar - Our Future Mobility Now

27 February 2012

Peter Kasten

Oeko-Institut e.V., Berlin

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Oeko-Institut is a leading European research and consultancy institute

based in Germany which is working for a sustainable future.

» founded in 1977, non-profit association

» offices in Freiburg, Darmstadt and Berlin

» more than 130 staff, including 85 researchers

» more than 300 national and international projects per year

» clients: European Union, ministries, industrial companies, non-

governmental organisations

» annual turnover: approx. 12 million Euro

Oeko - Institut

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Overview of past research projects

» OPTUM:

» user acceptance, market potential and environmental effects of electric

mobility (BEV & PHEV) in Germany by 2030

» Future Fleet:

» accompanying research on integration of EVs in SAP’s company fleet

» E-Mobility Berlin:

» accompanying research of the “Smart ed” fleet test in Berlin (in

cooperation with Daimler Corp.)

» OPTUM Resources:

» global impact of electric mobility on availability of rare resources and

potential recycling strategies

» LiBRi:

» development of recycling strategies for lithium-ion batteries

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Current project – E-Mob 2050

» E-Mob 2050:

» research project (09/2011-09/2013) funded by BMU

» main goals:

» long term market potential of electric and fuel cell vehicles in Germany

until 2050

» impact of changes in mobility behaviour and of new mobility services

on the market potential of EVs / FCVs

» consideration of long term development of the German power sector

(with a high share of fluctuating renewable energy generation)

» modelling of the long term interaction of EV use and power generation

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Why talking about sustainable mobility?

» EU GHG emission target 2050: CO2 emission reduction of more than 80 % compared to 1990 emissions

» growing share of transport sector emissions: ~ 25 %

» high relevance of road traffic

» no „easy“ options in the transport sector

» CO2 emission reduction measures:

» technology development

» alternative (less CO2-intensive) fuels

» change in mobility behaviour, need of new mobility offers

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How cars are used today?

» ~ 50 % of car owners use it 3 times a week or less

» average trip distance: ~ 15 km

» average car usage time per day: ~ 1 h

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 20 40 60 80 100

sh

are

of

ca

rs

daily mileage [km]

Source: infas, DLR: MiD 2008

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Market potential of electromobility

» study: OPTUM – optimising the environmental benefit of electric vehicles

» project partners: Oeko – Institut (lead), ISOE (user acceptance analysis)

» stakeholder process: stakeholders from industry, consumer groups and NGOs

» market scenario until 2030 derived from user acceptance survey (conjoint analysis) and today‘s car usage patterns (MiD 2008)

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Example: conjoint task

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

small car mid-size car large car

mar

ket

po

ten

tial

CV

PHEV

BEV

Market simulation (conjoint analysis)

Source: OPTUM

10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Pas

sen

ger

cars

in m

illio

ns

PHEV (large)

PHEV (mid-size)

PHEV (small)

BEV (mid-size)

BEV (small)

City-BEV (mini)

EV market scenario

Passenger cars 2020:

473,000 PHEV

57,000 BEV

8,000 City BEV

Total: 538,000

Passenger cars 2030:

5,080,000 PHEV

700,000 BEV

90,000 City BEV

Total: 5,870,000

1 million electric

cars

German government targets:

2020: 1 million electric vehicles

2030: 6 million electric vehicles

Source: OPTUM

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User acceptance & environmental

awareness

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

small car mid-size car

BE

V m

ark

et

sh

are

[%

]

high environmentalawareness

rather high environmentalawareness

rather low environmentalawareness

low environmentalawareness

Source: OPTUM

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user acceptance & access to public

transport

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

small car mid-size car

BE

V m

ark

et

sh

are

[%

]

always easy

rather easy

rather difficult

always easy

Source: OPTUM

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intermodal mobility concepts without

car ownership I

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

high acceptance rather highacceptance (maybe)

rather low & noacceptance

resp

on

de

nt

shar

e [

%]

small car

mid-size car

large car

Source: OPTUM

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

small car mid-size car large car

acce

pta

nce

(ye

s +

may

be

) [%

]

18 - 29

30 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 59

60 - 69

70+

intermodal mobility concepts without

car ownership & age Source: OPTUM

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

acceptance (yes +maybe)

rather lowacceptance

low acceptance

BEV

mar

ket

shar

e [

%]

small car

mid-size car

user acceptance & intermodal mobility

concept Source: OPTUM

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Electromobility & carsharing

» market scenario: domination of PHEVs due to range restrictions of BEVs

» development of BEV market: intermodal mobility concept (incl. carsharing)

» increased acceptance for BEVs when

» high environmental awareness

» easy access to public transport

» positive attitude toward intermodal mobility concept

» benefit of low operating costs is intensified due to carsharing

The future market success of BEVs requires strong link to other mobility options. At the same time, electromobility might be the starting point for the development and stronger acceptance of intermodal mobility concepts incl. carsharing.

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Peter Kasten

Infrastructure & Enterprises Division Berlin office

Schicklerstraße 5-7 10179 Berlin

[email protected] www.oeko.de