Electricity Planning in the West of Thunder Bay area · West of Thunder Bay Electricity Demand Growth 0 100 200 300 400 500 600) High Reference Low Historic The West of Thunder Bay

Electricity Planning in the West of Thunder Bay area Local Advisory Committee Meeting #2

April 19-20, 2016

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West of Thunder Bay Regional Planning Process and Timeline

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Recap: Nov 2015 LAC Meeting West of Thunder Bay Electricity System

- Demand Forecast

- Local Generation Resources

- Regional and Bulk Transmission System

Bulk and Regional Electricity Needs

- Desire to minimize the impact of power outages to customers

- Potential growth may exceed existing bulk system capability – timing is uncertain

- Interests in community energy planning and community-based solutions

Role and Scope of the Local Advisory Committee (LAC)

Potential Areas of Interests

- Update on the northwest electricity planning activities

- Cost responsibility

- Cost-benefit analysis of supply alternatives

- Impact of climate change and low carbon policy

- Availability of natural gas and its implications on electricity supply

- Imports: Technical and commercial considerations

- Community-based solutions and community energy planning

- Impact of power outages to customers

- Customer support programs

LAC Meeting #2

Potential areas of focus

in future LAC meetings

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Discuss key areas of focus for future LAC meetings

Clarify the study scope and review the draft outcomes from

the West of Thunder Bay Integrated Regional Resource Plan (IRRP)

Provide an update on the electricity planning activities in the Northwest

Purpose

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Update on Northwest Electricity Planning Activities

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Development work is currently underway for two bulk transmission projects in Northwest Ontario

Northwest Bulk

Transmission Line

East-West Tie

Expansion

Priority projects identified in Ontario’s 2013 Long Term Energy Plan

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East-West Tie Expansion

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East-West Tie

Expansion

Scope:

- A new double circuit 230 kV line,

approximately 400 km in length,

from Wawa to Lakehead (near

Thunder Bay) via Marathon

Purpose

- Increase the power transfer

capability with Northeastern Ontario

to supply demand growth forecasted

for the Northwest in the coming

decade

- Maintain reliability given a changing

supply mix in the region

- Improve flexibility and efficiency of

the Northwest system

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East-West Tie Expansion

Status:

- IESO submitted a need update report to the OEB, which continues to recommend the

East West Tie expansion

- Expected In-service date of 2020

- Project proponent (Nextbridge) will continue development work and will initiate third

round of community open houses in Spring 2016

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NW Bulk Transmission Line

Northwest Bulk Transmission Line

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Purpose

- Provide adequate bulk electricity

system capability to supply potential

growth in West of Thunder Bay and

North of Dryden areas

Scope:

- A new double-circuit 230 kV line

between Thunder Bay and

Atikokan and a single-circuit 230

kV line from Atikokan to Dryden

- Alternate routes may be

considered as part of the

development work

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Northwest Bulk Transmission Line

Status:

– In October 2014, a letter was provided to Hydro One describing the need, scope and

timing for the project and requesting initiation of development work

– A number of solution options are feasible and under consideration (e.g. transmission,

generation, imports)

– Hydro One is carrying out early development work to shorten the lead time of the

project and maintain the viability of the transmission option

– IESO is working with Hydro One to develop the preliminary planning specifications, in-

service date and project schedule

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Regional Electricity Planning Activities in the Northwest

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Remote Community Connection Plan Scope:

– 25 communities are currently

supplied by remote diesel

generators

The Plan Requires:

– 1,000 – 1,500 km of transmission

– 875 – 950 km of distribution

– 9 – 11 transformer stations

– 21 distribution stations

– Capital cost ~$1 billion

Key Drivers:

– Costs of diesel are high

– Using diesel generation impacts the

environment and quality of life (e.g.

Noise, diesel exhaust, possible

spills, service outages)

– Communities face growth and

development constraints

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Remote Community Connection Plan

Status :

– The 2014 Draft Remote Community Connection Plan concluded that is economic to connect 21

of the 25 Remote First Nation Communities in Northwestern Ontario

The IESO will:

– Continue to engage with all 25 communities and consider comments from ongoing community

engagement in ongoing planning

– Issue a reference plan in support of proponents developing projects

– Continue to work with communities that are not planned for connection to develop Electricity

Service Plans that are supported by each community

First Nation Transmission Proponents will:

– Develop a detailed plan for how the transmission lines will be routed and built

– Obtain financing and conduct development work, design, engineering and procurement for

transmission projects

– Undertake approval processes (OEB, EA, etc.)

For more information on the Remote Community Connection Plan, please see:

Website: http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Ontario%27s-Power-System/Regional-Planning/Northwest-Ontario/Remote-Community-

Connection-Plan.aspx

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North of Dryden

Drivers:

– Connection of Remote Communities

– Potential growth in the mining sector

– Development of the Ring of Fire

Study Scope:

– Supply to Pickle Lake sub-system

– Supply to Red Lake sub-system

– Supply to Ring of Fire sub-system

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North of Dryden

Status

– Final IRRP published in January 2015

– Recommendations are being implemented by the appropriate proponents

Recommendations

– New single circuit 230 kV transmission line from the Dryden/Ignace area to Pickle Lake

– Upgrading the existing 115 kV lines from Dryden to Ear Falls (E4D) and from Ear Falls

to Red Lake (E2R) (for the Red Lake subsystem) and install the necessary voltage

control devices

For more information on the North of Dryden area regional planning activities, please see:

Website: http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Ontario's-Power-System/Regional-Planning/Northwest-Ontario/North-of-Dryden.aspx

Community Engagement: http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Participate/Regional-Planning/Northwest-Ontario/North-of-Dryden.aspx

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Greenstone-Marathon Scope

– Supply to Greenstone

– Supply to North Shore

– Supply to Marathon Area

Key Drivers

– Mining development

– Gas to oil pipeline conversion

– Recovery of forestry industry

– Growth in communities

Status:

– An Interim IRRP report has been developed with community input to facilitate

decision making related to electricity supply for near-term industrial and community

developments in the area

– The final IRRP is currently under development

– Third LAC meeting: May 12, 2016

For more information on the Greenstone & Marathon regional planning activities, please see:

Website: http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Ontario's-Power-System/Regional-Planning/Northwest-Ontario/Greenstone-Marathon.aspx

Community Engagement: http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Participate/Regional-Planning/Northwest-Ontario/Greenstone-Marathon.aspx

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Thunder Bay

Scope

– Supply to Thunder Bay and

surrounding area

Key Drivers

– Community growth

– Potential mining growth

– Pipeline conversion

– Impact of growth in the Greenstone

area on Thunder Bay electricity system

For more information on the Thunder Bay area regional planning activities, please see:

Website: http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Ontario%27s-Power-System/Regional-Planning/Northwest-Ontario/Thunder-Bay.aspx

Community Engagement: http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Participate/Regional-Planning/Northwest-Ontario/Thunder-Bay.aspx

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Local/Community Energy Planning Activities

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Review Key Outcomes from West of Thunder Bay IRRP

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Types of Electricity Planning

Integrates local electricity

priorities with provincial policy

directions & system needs

Examines local electricity

needs and priorities at the

community-level

Addresses provincial

electricity system needs

and policy directions

Ministry of Energy

IESO

IESO

Local Distribution

Companies

Transmitters Local Distribution

Companies

Key Participants

Transmitters

First Nations communities & Métis, municipalities and industry stakeholders

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Scope of Regional Planning Process

• A process for identifying and meeting electricity needs for a region

- Carry out by local utilities, transmitter and the IESO (“Technical Working Group”)

- Revisit at a minimum every 5 years

• Key Outcomes: A 20-Year Electricity Plan

- Work with communities to understand the electricity needs and local priorities

- Identify need for infrastructure, generation, conservation programs and/or

innovative solutions

- Layout a high-level near-term implementation plan and long-term roadmap

• Projects identified in the plan will still need to consider:

- Project details/specification and siting/routing

- Approval processes (e.g. environmental assessment, regulatory approval)

- Project-level stakeholder and community engagement

- Project funding and cost-allocation

• Project-related considerations are beyond the scope of regional planning

- Will be considered as part of project development process

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Electricity System in West of Thunder Bay

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Atikokan Biomass Generation

Solar Generation

Hydroelectric Generation

Power output can vary depending on

factors such as cloud cover, location,

time of day, and seasons

Power output is reduced to less than a

1/3 of its capacity during dry water

Installed Capacity: 220 MW

Installed Capacity: 200 MW

Installed Capacity: 35 MW

Ontario Power Generation has a contract

with the IESO until 2024

Contract terms limit annual fuel

consumption and electricity production

Local Generation Resources

Hydroelectric output is highly variable and

it depends on various water conditions

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West of Thunder Bay Electricity Demand Growth

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Win

ter

Pe

ak D

em

and

(M

W)

High

Reference

Low

Historic

The West of Thunder Bay electricity system is a source of supply to the North of Dryden.

Electricity requirements in this area are also affected by the significant potential for

development in the area north of Dryden.

By early 2020s, mining projects

& gas to oil pipeline conversion

(if approved) are expected to

come in service

Additional mining

& value-added

forestry products

Today

Note: West of Thunder Bay demand forecast (shown above) does not include growth in the North of Dryden area.

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Needs considered in Regional Planning

Scope of the

Regional Planning

Process

Planning Process Types of Needs

Needs associated with the local distribution system and the 230kV bulk system transmission are beyond

the scope of regional planning process and will be addressed in separate planning processes. However,

these issues and their implications will be documented as part of the regional planning process.

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West of Thunder Bay: Needs Summary

Types of

Planning Needs Status

Bulk

Potential growth in North of Dryden and

West of Thunder Bay areas may exceed

capability on the 230kV bulk system

Timing is uncertain. It depends on if and when growth materializes. This will be

addressed as part of the bulk transmission planning process

Regional

Limited supply margin remaining on a

transformers station supplying the City of

Kenora and surrounding areas.

A new transformer station will be required in about 2 years to supply a large

customer in the Kenora area that has historically been fed directly from a dam. It is

expected that this will have minimal impact on increasing the local demand.

This new transformer station can potentially provide a second source of supply to the

City of Kenora and surrounding areas.

Potential growth may exceed capability on

the Dryden 115kV subsystem

Timing is uncertain. Growth will only exceed system capability under high growth

scenarios.

End of Life Replacement of Dryden and

Moose Lake transformer stations within the

next 5 years

The two transformer stations will be replaced according to current standards. These

end of life replacements will not have regional implications over the planning period.

Transmission reliability performance on

Sam Lake TS and Fort Frances MTS

Based on historical reliability performance statistics, Sam Lake TS and Fort Frances

MTS are within the provincial planning standards

Distribution Distribution reliability performance

Majority of feeders in this area perform well relative to other feeders in the province,

with the exception of the two feeders supplying from Shabaqua and Margach DS.

These two feeders are 3 - 4 times longer than other feeders across the province, and

are more exposed to trees, wildlife and poor weather. This will be addressed as part

of the distribution system planning process.

Community Greater coordination is required between

community and regional planning

A number of communities have expressed interests and are in the process of

developing community energy plans. 26

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Options to provide additional supply capacity on Dryden 115kV subsystem under “high growth” scenario

Option 1: Reduce load on the115kV system by connecting future or

existing load to the 230kV system

Option 2: A new 115/230kV autotransformer in the Dryden area

Option 3: Generation connected to the Dryden 115kV subsystem

Given the uncertainty with the demand growth, it is important to

continue to monitor load growth and development in Dryden and West

of Thunder Bay areas. No decision is required at this time. This need

will be revisited in the next round of the regional planning process.

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Potentials Area for Coordination: Community Energy Planning and Regional Planning Activities

This is an opportunity to coordinate and to better understand: Status of local growth and developments

Local planning priorities Local energy planning activities (e.g. community energy planning)

Impact of potential supply interruptions or outages Potential, feasibility and challenges of implementing community-based energy solutions

A number of communities in the West of Thunder Bay area are in the process of

developing community energy plans.

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Draft Recommendations

• Continue to explore opportunities to improve service reliability

– Identify mitigation measures to improve distribution reliability, where applicable

– Explore opportunities for community-based solutions or a wires solution (e.g.

switching facilities) to further improve outage restorations.

– Need to take cost-allocation of investments into consideration

• Monitor the growth and development in the area and revisit potential

supply needs in the next round of the regional planning process

– Keep the communities informed on the status and developments related to the

230kV bulk transmission needs and solutions

– Revisit Dryden 115kV and Kenora transformer station needs in the next

iteration of West of Thunder Bay regional electricity planning process

• Coordinate/Align Regional Planning with Local Energy Planning

– Identify ways to coordinate regional planning and community energy planning

activities

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1. What are your thoughts on the needs and options identified

through the regional planning process?

2. What are your thoughts on the draft recommendations for

the West of Thunder Bay regional electricity plan?

3. How should we continue to engage with communities?

– To monitor the local growth and development in the area

– To share insights on community-based solutions

– To understand the impact of supply interruptions

– To coordinate energy planning activities

Discussion Questions

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Finalize the report in consideration of your input

Publish the West of Thunder Bay Integrated Regional Resources Plan (IRRP) report by end of July 2016

Schedule the 3rd Local Advisory Committee meeting

Next Steps

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For Discussion: Potential Area of Focus for Future LAC Meetings

Cost responsibility Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Supply Alternatives

Impact of climate change and low carbon

policy

Availability of Natural Gas and Its implications

on electricity supply

Imports: Technical and Commercial

Considerations

Community-based solutions and

community energy planning

Impact of power outages to customers

Customer Support Programs

Topics identified from previous LAC meeting

Most of these topics are beyond the scope of regional planning. However, we are opened to

continue the discussion on these topics in future LAC meetings depending on your interests.

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