© OECD/IEA 2011 Electricity: a status report Laszlo Varro, Head, Gas, Coal and Power Markets Division International Energy Agency
Feb 23, 2016
© OECD/IEA 2011
Electricity: a status report
Laszlo Varro, Head, Gas, Coal and Power Markets DivisionInternational Energy Agency
Electricity Is not going out of fashion Is the key battleground of climate policy Has been getting more, rather than less,
carbon-intensive globally Is the key driver for gas and coal demand Has a transformative efficiency potential in
Russia
© OECD/IEA 2011
State of decarbonization: first stop digging
© OECD/IEA 2011
Decarbonization race: a troika with only one horse pulling
Status of low carbon technologies 1 Nuclear: Back to Square 1 after Fukushima?
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Average yearly increase, WEO 2010 NPS
Average yearly increase, WEO 2010 450 ppm
New nuclear capacity construction starts, MW
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Status of low carbon technologies 2 CCS: serious risk of delayed deployment
Status of low carbon technologies 3 Renewables: strong growth but not always on
the best places
German moratorium: European scale effects
Moderate, 10% price reaction due to excess capacities
13EU power prices still below the level that would recover investment in new plant
© OECD/IEA 2011
Gas will be needed to deliver CO2 reductions
Current Policy 20220
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German electricity mix with 10% demand reduction, no nuclear, 35% renewables and CO2 at the target level
© OECD/IEA 2011
US: the Golden Age of Gas has arrived
280 Twh coal to gas switch in 3 years
China: with energy efficiency efforts and the biggest nuclear and renewable program in the world
Coal fired power generation still grows by over 100 twh/year
Russia: (Re)Search to improve power sector
© OECD/IEA 2011
How to make it happen
Adam Smith 1776: peace, taxes, justice
IEA 2011(ongoing work on Russian power sector reform): elimination of gas subsidies, proper price signals for gas and electricity, market design