Electoral Support for Islamic Parties in the Middle

8/18/2019 Electoral Support for Islamic Parties in the Middle

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Introduction

Throughout the world, religious fundamentalism has become a majorsocio- political force. In the Middle East and North Africa MENA! region,Islamic parties ha"e made electoral ad"ances that, coupled with e"entsin countries such as Algeria # where a ci"il war with religious undertonesleft thousands dead # and with the recent "ictories of the Muslim$rotherhood in Eg%pt and &amas in 'alestine, should not be

underestimated.

This growth in support for Islamic-orientated( parties in theMENA region tends to be percei"ed b% the )est as a gra"e threat,especiall% after the attac*s on the +nited tates of America on ((

eptember (.


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The (In)comp ti!i"it# o$ Democr c#nd I%" m

The debate as to whether Islam is inherentl% hostile todemocrac% is not new, but has attracted special scholarl% attention

since the e"ents of ((eptember (.

Among those who argue against the incompatibilit% of Islam anddemocrac% is /ose !, who anal%0ed the "alues and attitudes ofMuslims in Central Asia and found that 1there is little di2erencebetween Muslims, the 3rthodo4, and non-belie"ers. E"en more

stri*ingl%, the most obser"ant Muslims are almost as pro-democratic asthose who are non-obser"ant5. &e concluded that 1neither nominalreligion nor the degree of religious obser"ance has much in6uence ondemocratic "alues5. At a glance, 1being Muslim does not ma*e a personmore li*el% either to reject democrac% or to endorse dictatorship


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I%" mic P rtie% nd E"ection% in theMidd"e E %t nd

North A$ric The abo"e o"er"iew clearl% indicates a lac* of consensus

regarding the potential of liberal democrac% ta*ing root in the Arabworld. Although there ha"e been elections and part% competition in theregion, it is important to note that these elections are notnecessaril% held in the same conte4t of fairness and freedom as intheir European counterparts. )inners generall% run for o7ce without

real ri"als and the election turnout is generall% "er% low. In man%cases, elections ha"e ta*en place under the tight control of the arm%Algeria! or under institutionali0ed political power structures not

supporti"e of full democrac%Ne"ertheless, Islamic parties ha"e made major electoral

ad"ances in the region, resulting in an important and noticeable rise in

power.


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Mo&in' e#ond e%tern Mode"% o$*otin' eh &ior There are man% theories aimed at e4plaining "oting beha"ior,

including the classical sociological or structural approach,(( which

states that structural clea"ages determine "oter choices. The model was also e4panded b% authors such as &orowit0 ,who lin*ed ethnicit%, part% s%stems and electoral beha"ior in hisanal%sis of de"eloping societies. The model is limited, howe"er, in itscapacit% to e4plain changes in "oting beha"ior, such as the decline insocial clea"age "oting in Europe in recent decades.

8inall%, the rational choice or economic approach assumes thatciti0ens act rationall% in politics b% ma*ing decisions that bestrepresent their interests.


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Re%e rch De%i'nA binar% logistical regression techni:ue is used in this anal%sis.

The "ote intention;part% support "ariable( was therefore recoded intoa dichotomous "ariable, with ( representing the part% selected foranal%sis and the other parties. The independent "ariables ha"ebeen included in di2erent models in an attempt to anal%0e not onl%

the e2ect of the independent on the dependent "ariable, but also thepossible underl%ing e2ects between the independent "ariablesthemsel"es.

As noted abo"e, we belie"e that the factors dri"ing electoralsupport for Islamic parties are not solel% religiousl% based &ence, wedecided to incorporate factors that, according to the literature re"iew

presented abo"e, are important in e4plaining the rise of these Islamicparties in the MENA region.


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An "#%i% o$ Re%u"t%


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Conc"u%ion% The rising tide of support for Islamic-orientated parties

spreading through the Middle East and North Africa is becoming apolitical force to be rec*oned with. Islamic organi0ations areproliferating and competing with secular organi0ations to suchan e4tent that certain states ha"e reacted b% putting se"ererestrictions in place.


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Electoral Support for Islamic Parties in the Middle

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