POLITICO POLITICO ELECTION 2010 The Senate Watchlist WHY TO WATCH Chris Dodd, a five-term Democrat, is arguably the party’s most vulnerable Senate incumbent — just look at the lengthy list of Republicans who are champing at the bit to take him on. Dodd has experienced marked improvement in his poll ratings in recent months, a development no doubt assisted by the Senate Ethics Committee’s August dismissal of complaints alleging that Dodd and Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) had received special mortgage deals from Countrywide Financial. Yet the committee also noted that the two should have “exercised more vigilance" to avoid the appearance that they received preferential treatment, so the issue isn’t entirely wiped away. Leading the crowded GOP field is former three-term Rep. Rob Simmons, who was defeated for reelection in 2006. Simmons has led Dodd in head-to-head polling matchups for months; Quinnipiac had him at a 5-percentage-point advantage in mid-September. CONNECTICUT THE SENATOR Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) Age: 65 Home:East Haddam First elected:1980 Term: 5th 2004 GENERAL ELECTION 66% 32% Chris Dodd (D) Jack Orchulli (R) FAST FACT Since winning the Senate seat in 1980, Dodd has never been reelected with less than 59 percent of the vote. VOTER REGISTRATION 37% 20% Democrat Republican 43% Other WHY TO WATCH The only thing stopping Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid from being rated as the most vulnerable Democratic senator is the quality of his opposition. Republicans struggled for months to come up with a top-tier challenger to Reid, despite his anemic ratings in the polls. Now the GOP has at least three prospective challengers — former state Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden, state Sen. Mark Amodei and businessman Danny Tarkanian — but none of them has ever run a race quite like this or against a smash-mouth opponent quite like Reid. If the GOP nominee turns out to be equal to the task, the general election may end up resembling the epic 2004 South Dakota battle between then- Majority Leader Tom Daschle and Republican John Thune, fueled by national money and contingent on whether the challenger can convince voters that Reid’s power hasn’t translated into results for Nevada — which is suffering from high unemployment and foreclosure rates. NEVADA THE SENATOR Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) Age: 69 Home: Searchlight First elected: 1986 Term: 4th WHY TO WATCH In a state where John McCain crushed Barack Obama by 20 points in 2008 and where polls show voters are deeply skeptical of Obama’s health care plan, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln has little room for error in her bid for a third term. According to a late September Rasmussen poll, she trails all four of her Republican opponents. And the poll shows her trailing state Sen. Gilbert Baker by 8 points, 47 percent to 39 percent. Baker has emerged as an early front-runner for the Republican nomination. Lincoln, however, is well-prepared to stave off the opposition. She raised nearly $4.6 million for her campaign through the end of June and had more than $3 million in her war chest at the time. Perhaps more important, the recent chairmanship shuffle left her at the head of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee — a key committee for ag- dependent Arkansas. ARKANSAS THE SENATOR Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) Age: 49 Home: Little Rock First elected: 1998 Term: 2nd WHY TO WATCH Democrat Michael Bennet, appointed to the Senate seat left vacant when Ken Salazar became interior secretary, has two tough races ahead of him in 2010. The first is the August primary, where he’ll face former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, a talented young pol who was bypassed for the appointment. Much of the state Democratic establishment has lined up behind Bennet — as has the White House, which sought to dissuade Romanoff from running — but in short order Romanoff has already picked up a few Democratic endorsements. It doesn’t get any easier after that. A crowded Republican field is eager to take on political newcomer Bennet, and it includes former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton — who led Bennet by 9 points in a recent polling matchup. COLORADO THE SENATOR Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) Age: 44 Home: Denver First elected: Appointed in January 2009 Term: 1st DODD APPROVAL RATING OBAMA APPROVAL RATING Approve Disapprove Don't Know Approve Disapprove Don't Know 2004 GENERAL ELECTION 61% 35% Harry Reid (D) Richard Ziser (R) FAST FACT Reid won his second term in 1998 by just 459 votes over Republican John Ensign, who ran for Nevada’s other Senate seat in 2000 and won. VOTER REGISTRATION 43% 36% Democrat Republican 21% Other REID FAVORABILITY RATING OBAMA APPROVAL RATING Favorable Unfavorable Not Sure Approve Disapprove Don't Know 2004 GENERAL ELECTION 56% 44% Blanche Lincoln (D) Jim Holt (R) FAST FACT Lincoln, who won her seat at the age of 38, is the youngest woman ever elected to the Senate. LINCOLN APPROVAL RATING OBAMA APPROVAL RATING Approve Disapprove Don't Know Approve Disapprove Don't Know 2004 GENERAL ELECTION 51% 47% Ken Salazar (D) Pete Coors (R) FAST FACT Bennet has never run for elected office. VOTER REGISTRATION 33% 33% Democrat Republican 34% Other BENNET APPROVAL RATING OBAMA APPROVAL RATING Approve Disapprove Don't Know Approve Disapprove Don't Know Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, Sept. 10-14; 921 registered voters Source: Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 14; 500 likely voters (IVR) Source: Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 28; 500 likely voters (IVR) Source: Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 15; 500 likely voters (IVR) Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Aug. 21-24; 784 voters (IVR) Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Aug. 14-16; 969 voters (IVR) 43% 48% 8% 57% 36% 6% 46% 53% 1% 45% 54% 1% VOTER REGISTRATION There is no party registration in Arkansas. 37% 62% 1% 36% 44% 20% 31% 38% 31% 48% 51% 1% 2008 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS 38 McCain 61 Obama 1 Other 2008 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS 43 McCain 55 Obama 2 Other Source: Almanac of American Politics 2010; state election division 2008 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS 59 McCain 39 Obama 2 Other 2008 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS 45 McCain 54 Obama 1 Other Source: Almanac of American Politics 2010; state election division Source: Almanac of American Politics 2010; state election division Source: Almanac of American Politics 2010; state election division 8 ELECTION 2010 The 2010 Senate landscape is almost evenly split down the middle: Republicans will be defending 18 seats, while Democrats will be defending 19 seats, including the January special election in Massachusetts. WHY TO WATCH Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter faces what may be the toughest election of his Senate career, which is saying something given the long arc of his tenure in office. Before he can claim a sixth term, Specter must defeat tenacious and cash-flush Rep. Joe Sestak in the May primary, then knock off Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey. The Harrisburg and Washington Democratic establishments are lined up behind Specter, but that’s not Sestak’s audience — he’s running to Specter’s left, in the hopes of winning over the party rank and file. Toomey, once thought to be too conservative to be a viable statewide candidate in Pennsylvania, has tempered his style and is competitive with Specter in head-to-head matchups. PENNSYLVANIA THE SENATOR WHY TO WATCH Just when it looked like GOP Sen. David Vitter might weather the scandal surrounding the revelation that he was a client of a Washington prostitution ring, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon announced he would challenge Vitter in 2010, ensuring that the first-term conservative would get top-tier opposition. Democrats have already signaled that they consider the prostitution scandal fair game, while Vitter has indicated that President Barack Obama — and his health care plan — will play a central role in the contest. Vitter has relatively respectable approval ratings in a state that Obama lost by a wide margin, so he won’t be easy to dislodge. LOUISIANA THE SENATOR WHY TO WATCH Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer won a second term in 1998 by 10 percentage points and a third in 2004 by 20 points. Still, Republicans remain convinced that her polarizing style and liberal voting record make her vulnerable in 2010. The GOP has recruited a heavyweight challenger in former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, but Fiorina has stumbled out of the gate, and it’s not clear how much of her own money she’ll put into the race. While a July Rasmussen Reports poll gave Boxer a 45 percent to 41 percent lead — down from a 9-point lead in March — subsequent polls have not shown the race that tight, and few see this as a top GOP pickup opportunity. CALIFORNIA THE SENATOR Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) Age: 68 Home: Rancho Mirage First elected: 1992 Term: 3rd WHY TO WATCH There’s no scandal or silver-bullet issue. He’s reasonably well-funded. And unlike former GOP colleague Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who lost by a convincing margin in 2008, Sen. Richard Burr has been attentive to the state. Yet Burr’s approval ratings are lagging, and it’s got Democrats convinced they can deny him a second term in 2010. While the field isn’t set yet, Democrats already have one well-known challenger planning to run: Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, the first woman elected to statewide office in North Carolina. According to a recent poll, Marshall trails Burr by double digits. There’s still a long way to go, of course, but few think the political conditions in 2010 will look anything like 2008, when Barack Obama narrowly carried the state, Kay Hagan knocked off Dole and Democrat Bev Perdue won the open governor’s race. NORTH CAROLINA THE SENATOR Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) Age: 53 Home: Winston- Salem First elected: 2004 Term: 1st 2004 GENERAL ELECTION 53% 42% Arlen Specter (R) Joe Hoeffel (D) FAST FACT Specter is the longest-serving senator in Pennsylvania history. VOTER REGISTRATION 51% 37% Democrat Republican 12% Other SPECTER APPROVAL RATING OBAMA APPROVAL RATING Approve Disapprove Don't Know Approve Disapprove Don't Know FAST FACT No Louisiana Senate incumbent has been defeated since 1932. VOTER REGISTRATION 53% 25% Democrat Republican 22% Other VITTER APPROVAL RATING OBAMA APPROVAL RATING Approve Disapprove Don't Know Approve Disapprove Don't Know/ Won't Say 2004 GENERAL ELECTION 58% 38% Barbara Boxer (D) Bill Jones (R) FAST FACT In her 2004 reelection victory, Boxer won nearly 7 million votes — the highest total for any Senate candidate in history. VOTER REGISTRATION 44% 31% Democrat Republican 24% Other BOXER APPROVAL RATING OBAMA APPROVAL RATING Approve Disapprove Don't Know Approve Disapprove Don't Know 2004 GENERAL ELECTION 52% 47% Richard Burr (R) Erskine Bowles (D) FAST FACT Since Sen. Sam Ervin retired in 1974, none of the six senators who have held this seat have won a second term. VOTER REGISTRATION 46% 32% Democrat Republican 22% Other BURR APPROVAL RATING OBAMA APPROVAL RATING Approve Disapprove Don't Know Approve Disapprove Don't Know Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, Sept. 22-28; 1,100 voters Source: Southern Media & Opinion Research, April 13-16; 600 likely voters Source: Public Policy Institute of California, Aug. 26-Sept.2; 1,689 registered voters Source: Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 15; 500 likely voters (IVR) Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Sept. 2-8; 600 voters (IVR) 2004 ELECTION 51% 29% David Vitter (R) Chris John (D) 15% John Kennedy (D) 44% 48% 9% 49% 42% 9% 44% 36% 20% 53% 39% 8% 51% 36% 13% 60% 35% 5% 38% 32% 29% 47% 52% 2% Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) Age: 48 Home: Metairie First elected: 2004 Term: 1st Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) Age: 79 Home: Philadelphia First elected: 1980 Term: 5th Source: Public Policy Polling (D), July 17-19; 727 voters (IVR) Sestak Melancon Fiorina 2008 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS 44 McCain 54 Obama 2 Other 2008 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS 59 McCain 40 Obama 1 Other 2008 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS 37 McCain 61 Obama 2 Other 2008 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS 49 McCain 50 Obama 1 Other Source: Almanac of American Politics 2010; state election division Source: Almanac of American Politics 2010; state election division Source: Almanac of American Politics 2010; state election division Source: Almanac of American Politics 2010; state election division 9 BY CHARLES MAHTESIAN PHOTOS BY JOHN SHINKLE — POLITICO, REUTERS AND AP