El miedo a la flotación

8/3/2019 El miedo a la flotacin

1/64

1%(5:25.,1*3$3(56(5,(6

)($52))/2$7,1*

*XLOOHUPR$&DOYR

&DUPHQ05HLQKDUW

:RUNLQJ3DSHUKWWSZZZQEHURUJSDSHUVZ

1$7,21$/%85($82)(&2120,&5(6($5&+

0DVVDKXVHWWV$YHQXH

&DPEULGJH0$

1RYHPEHU

7KHDXWKRUVZLVKWRWKDQN(QULTXH0HQGR]D9LQ.HQW5HLQKDUW&DUORV9pJKDQGVHPLQDUSDUWL.LSDQWVDWWKH

+RRYHU,QVWLWXWLRQ.RQIHUHQ.HRQ&XUUHQ.\8QLRQV6WDQIRUG&DOLIRUQLD6XPPHU&DPS3DUD.DV3HUX

,QWHUQDWLRQDO 0RQHWDU\ )XQG DQG WKH 1%(5V 6XPPHU ,QVWLWXWH LQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO )LQDQ.H DQG

0D.URH.RQRPL.VIRUYHU\XVHIXOGLV.XVVLRQVDQG,RDQQLV7RNDWOLGLVIRUVXSHUEUHVHDU.KDVVLVWDQ.H7KH

YLHZVH[SUHVVHGLQWKLVSDSHUDUHWKRVHRIWKHDXWKRUVDQGQRWQH.HVVDULO\WKRVHRIWKH1DWLRQDO%XUHDXRI(.RQRPL.5HVHDU.K

E\*XLOOHUPR$&DOYRDQG&DUPHQ05HLQKDUW$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG6KRUWVH.WLRQVRIWH[WQRW

WRH[.HHGWZRSDUDJUDSKVPD\EHTXRWHGZLWKRXWH[SOL.LWSHUPLVVLRQSURYLGHGWKDWIXOO.UHGLWLQ.OXGLQJ

QRWL.HLVJLYHQWRWKHVRXU.H


2/64

)HDURI)ORDWLQJ

*XLOOHUPR$&DOYRDQG&DUPHQ05HLQKDUW

1%(5:RUNLQJ3DSHU1R

1RYHPEHU

-(/1R)))

$%675$&7

,QUHHQW\HDUVPDQ\RXQWULHVKDYHVXIIHUHGVHYHUHILQDQLDOULVHVSURGXLQJDVWDJJHULQJ

WROORQWKHLUHRQRPLHVSDUWLXODUO\LQHPHUJLQJPDUNHWV2QHYLHZEODPHVIL[HGH[KDQJHUDWHV

VRIWSHJVIRUWKHVHPHOWGRZQV$GKHUHQWVWRWKDWYLHZDGYLVHRXQWULHVWRDOORZWKHLUXUUHQ\

WRIORDW:HDQDO\]HWKHEHKDYLRURIH[KDQJHUDWHVUHVHUYHVWKHPRQHWDU\DJJUHJDWHVLQWHUHVWUDWHV

DQGRPPRGLW\SULHVDURVVH[KDQJHUDWHDUUDQJHPHQWVWRDVVHVVZKHWKHURIILLDOODEHOV

SURYLGHDQDGHTXDWHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIDWXDORXQWU\SUDWLH:HILQGWKDWRXQWULHVWKDWVD\WKH\

DOORZWKHLUH[KDQJHUDWHWRIORDWPRVWO\GRQRWWKHUHVHHPVWREHDQHSLGHPLDVHRIIHDURI

IORDWLQJ6LQHRXQWULHVWKDWDUHODVVLILHGDVKDYLQJDIUHHRUDPDQDJHGIORDWPRVWO\UHVHPEOH

QRQUHGLEOHSHJVWKHVRDOOHGGHPLVHRIIL[HGH[KDQJHUDWHVLVDP\WKWKHIHDURIIORDWLQJLV

SHUYDVLYHHYHQDPRQJVRPHRIWKHGHYHORSHGRXQWULHV:HSUHVHQWDQDQDO\WLDOIUDPHZRUNWKDW

KHOSVWRXQGHUVWDQGZK\WKHUHLVIHDURIIORDWLQJ

*XLOOHUPR$&DOYR &DUPHQ05HLQKDUW

'HSDUWPHQWRI(RQRPLV 8QLYHUVLW\RI0DU\ODQG

8QLYHUVLW\RI0DU\ODQG 6KRRORI3XEOL$IIDLUV

&ROOHJH3DUN0' 9DQ0XQKLQJ+DOO5RRP'

DQG1%(5 &ROOHJH3DUN0'

DOYR#HRQXPGHGX DQG1%(5

UHLQKDUW#HRQXPGHGX


3/64

6HHIRUH[DPSOH*ROGVWHLQ

7KHWH[WERRNGHILQLWLRQRIDIORDWLQJH[.KDQJHUDWHUHJLPHSRVLWVPRQH\DVWKHQRPLQDO

DQ.KRUDQGDVVXPHVWKDW.HQWUDOEDQNVGRQRWLQWHUYHQHLQWKHPDUNHWIRUIRUHLJQH[.KDQJH)RUDIXOOHUGLV.XVVLRQRIZKDWIL[HGYHUVXVIOH[LEOHH[.KDQJHUDWHVHQWDLOVHH&DOYR

2EVWIHOGDQG5RJRIIPDNHWKLVSRLQWDVZHOO

/HY\


4/64

6HH0.LQQRQIRU.RQYLQ.LQJHYLGHQ.HRQWKLVLVVXH

,QGHHGIHDURIIORDWLQJLVRQO\SDUWRIDPRUHJHQHUDOIHDURIODUJHH[.KDQJHUDWH

VZLQJVSDUWL.XODUO\LQ(0V7KLVUHOX.WDQ.HWRDOORZWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHWRDGMXVWVLJQLIL.DQWO\

DQGUDSLGO\LVDOVRPDQLIHVWLQWKHPDQ\HSLVRGHVGXULQJZKL.K.HQWUDOEDQNVJRWRJUHDWOHQJWKV

WRDYRLGDGHYDOXDWLRQ

SHULRGVRIWLPH2QO\7KDLODQGKRZHYHUZDVH[SOL.LWO\.ODVVLILHGDVDSHJDQGRQHWRDEDVNHW

RI.XUUHQ.LHVDWWKDWWKH3KLOLSSLQHVZDVOLVWHGDVKDYLQJDIUHHO\IORDWLQJH[.KDQJHUDWHZKLOH

WKHRWKHUVZHUHOXPSHGXQGHUWKH.DW.KDOOODEHORIPDQDJHGIORDWLQJ7RGD\WKHVH.RXQWULHVDUH

.ODVVLILHGDVIORDWHUV\HWDVWKH\YLJRURXVO\UH.RYHUIURPWKHWXUPRLORIWKHLUH[.KDQJH

UDWHVKDYH.HDVHGWRIOX.WXDWHLQDQ\VLJQLIL.DQWZD\

,QWKLVSDSHUZHDQDO\]HWKHEHKDYLRURIH[.KDQJHUDWHVIRUHLJQH[.KDQJHUHVHUYHVWKH

PRQHWDU\DJJUHJDWHVLQWHUHVWUDWHVDQG.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVD.URVVWKHVSH.WUXPRIH[.KDQJHUDWH

DUUDQJHPHQWVWRDVVHVVZKHWKHUWKHRIIL.LDOODEHOVSURYLGHDQDGHTXDWHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRID.WXDO

.RXQWU\SUD.WL.H7KHGDWDVSDQVPRQWKO\REVHUYDWLRQVIRUWKLUW\QLQH.RXQWULHVGXULQJWKH

-DQXDU\1RYHPEHUSHULRG2QHKXQGUHGDQGILIW\IRXUH[.KDQJHUDWHDUUDQJHPHQWV

DUH.RYHUHG

:HSUHVHQWDQDQDO\WL.DOPRGHOWKDWVXJJHVWVWKDWHYHQLQWKHEHVWRIWLPHVZKHQ

.RXQWULHVUHWDLQYROXQWDU\D..HVVWRLQWHUQDWLRQDO.DSLWDOPDUNHWVOD.NRI.UHGLELOLW\ZLOOOHDGWR

IHDURIIORDWLQJKLJKLQWHUHVWUDWHYRODWLOLW\DQGSUR.\.OL.DOLQWHUHVWUDWHSROL.LHV:HGLV.XVV

VRPHRIWKHUHDVRQVZK\.RXQWULHVPD\EHUHOX.WDQWWRDOORZODUJHVZLQJVLQWKHLUH[.KDQJHUDWHV

6RPHRIWKHNH\HPSLUL.DOILQGLQJVDUHDVIROORZV&RXQWULHVWKDWVD\WKH\DOORZWKHLU

H[.KDQJHUDWHWRIORDWPRVWO\GRQRWWKHUHVHHPVWREHDQHSLGHPL..DVHRIIHDURIIORDWLQJ

5HODWLYHWRPRUH.RPPLWWHGIORDWHUVVX.KDVWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV$XVWUDOLDDQG-DSDQREVHUYHG


5/64

H[.KDQJHUDWHYDULDELOLW\LVTXLWHORZ7KHORZYDULDELOLW\RIWKHQRPLQDOH[.KDQJHUDWHGRHVQRW

RZHWRWKHDEVHQ.HRIUHDORUQRPLQDOVKR.NVLQWKHVHH.RQRPLHVLQGHHGUHODWLYHWRWKH8QLWHG

6WDWHVDQG-DSDQPRVWRIWKHVH.RXQWULHVDUHVXEMH.WWRODUJHUDQGPRUHIUHTXHQWVKR.NVWRWKHLU

WHUPVRIWUDGH7KLVLVKDUGO\VXUSULVLQJJLYHQWKHKLJKSULPDU\.RPPRGLW\.RQWHQWRIWKHLU

H[SRUWVLQPDQ\.DVHV

7KHORZUHODWLYHH[.KDQJHUDWHYDULDELOLW\VWHPVIURPGHOLEHUDWHSROL.\D.WLRQVWRVWDELOL]H

WKHH[.KDQJHUDWH5HVHUYHYRODWLOLW\.RQWUDU\ERWKWRZKDWZRXOGEHH[SH.WHGLQDIORDWLQJ

H[.KDQJHUDWHUHJLPHRUUHODWLYHWRZKDWLVREVHUYHGLQWKHPRUH.RPPLWWHGIORDWHUVLVYHU\KLJK

,QWHUHVWUDWHYRODWLOLW\ERWKUHDODQGQRPLQDOLVVLJQLIL.DQWO\KLJKHUDQGLQDGLIIHUHQWOHDJXH

DOWRJHWKHUIURPWKDWRIWKHWUXHUIORDWHUV7KHKLJKYRODWLOLW\LQERWKUHDODQGQRPLQDOLQWHUHVW

UDWHVVXJJHVWVERWKWKDW.RXQWULHVDUHQRWUHO\LQJH[.OXVLYHO\RQIRUHLJQH[.KDQJHPDUNHW

LQWHUYHQWLRQWRVPRRWKIOX.WXDWLRQVLQWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHVLQWHUHVWUDWHGHIHQVHVDUH

.RPPRQSOD.HDQGWKDWWKHUHDUH.KURQL..UHGLELOLW\SUREOHPV7KHPRQHWDU\DJJUHJDWHVDOVR

VKRZDKLJKGHJUHHRIYDULDELOLW\UHODWLYHWRWKHPRUH.RPPLWWHGIORDWHUV$VZLWKLQWHUHVWUDWHV

WKLVYDULDELOLW\PD\RZHWRSUR.\.OL.DOPRQHWDU\SROL.\DLPHGDWVPRRWKLQJH[.KDQJHUDWH

IOX.WXDWLRQV

7KHHYLGHQ.HVXJJHVWVWKDW.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVLQWKHOR.DO.XUUHQ.\ZKL.KGULYHWKH

IOX.WXDWLRQVLQWKHWHUPVRIWUDGHRIPDQ\.RPPRGLW\H[SRUWHUVLQRXUVDPSOHDUHIDUPRUH

YRODWLOHWKDQWKHH[.KDQJHUDWH$SSDUHQWO\SROL.\PDNHUVDOORZWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHWRDGMXVWDV

RQO\DSDUWLDODEVRUEHURIWKHVHUHDOVKR.NVDWEHVW,QGHHGLQPRVW.DVHVWKHUHLVQR.RUUHODWLRQ

EHWZHHQ.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVDQGWKHH[.KDQJHUDWH.RQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHYLHZWKDWWKHH[.KDQJHUDWH

PD\QRWEHDOORZHGWRDGMXVWLQUHVSRQVHWRWHUPVRIWUDGHVKR.NV


6/64

)RUHYLGHQ.HRQWKHUHDVRQVEHKLQGIHDURIIORDWLQJVHH&DOYRDQG5HLQKDUWE

DQG+DXVPDQQ3DQL]]DDQG6WHLQ

6HHIRULQVWDQ.H%D[WHUDQG6WR.NPDQ*KRVK*XOGH2VWU\DQG:ROI

DQG(GZDUGVDQG6DYDVWDQRIRUDUHYLHZRIWKLVOLWHUDWXUH

$VWRWKHLQWHUD.WLRQDPRQJWKHVHYDULDEOHVZHILQGWKDW.RQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHK\SRWKHVLV

RIOD.NRI.UHGLELOLW\WKH.RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHDQGLQWHUHVWUDWHVLVSRVLWLYHLQ

PRVWLQVWDQ.HV)XUWKHUPRUHLQWZRWKLUGVRIWKH.DVHVWKH.RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQUHVHUYHVDQGWKH

H[.KDQJHUDWHLVQHJDWLYH7KLVPD\EHLQWHUSUHWHGDV.RQWHPSRUDQHRXVOHDQLQJDJDLQVWWKH

ZLQG

/DVWO\EH.DXVH.RXQWULHVWKDWDUH.ODVVLILHGDVKDYLQJDPDQDJHGIORDWPRVWO\UHVHPEOH

QRQ.UHGLEOHSHJVWKHVR.DOOHGGHPLVHRIIL[HGH[.KDQJHUDWHVLVDP\WK,QVWHDGWKHIHDURI

H[.KDQJHUDWHPRYHPHQWVLVSHUYDVLYHHYHQDPRQJVRPHRIWKHGHYHORSHG.RXQWULHV2XU

ILQGLQJWKDWPRVWRIWKHHSLVRGHVWKDW.RPHXQGHUWKHKHDGLQJRIIORDWLQJH[.KDQJHUDWHVORRN

PRUHOLNHQRQ.UHGLEOHSHJVPD\KHOSH[SODLQZK\HDUOLHUVWXGLHVZKL.KUHOLHGRQWKHRIIL.LDO

.ODVVLIL.DWLRQVRIUHJLPHVIDLOHGWRGHWH.WLPSRUWDQWGLIIHUHQ.HVLQ*'3JURZWKUDWHVDQG

LQIODWLRQD.URVVSHJDQGWKHIORDWLQJUHJLPHV

,Q6H.WLRQ,,ZHSUHVHQWDQDQDO\WL.DOIUDPHZRUNWRH[SODLQZK\WKHDXWKRULWLHVPD\EH

VRUHOX.WDQWWRDOORZWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHWRIOX.WXDWHWKHPRGHOZKL.KVWUHVVHV.UHGLELOLW\

SUREOHPVSURYLGHVZHOOGHILQHGSUHGL.WLRQVIRUWKHEHKDYLRURIH[.KDQJHUDWHVWKHPRQHWDU\

DJJUHJDWHVDQGQRPLQDODQGUHDOLQWHUHVWUDWHV6H.WLRQ,,,SURYLGHVDQDQDO\VLVRIWKHGDWDIRU

WKHYDULRXVH[.KDQJHUDWHDUUDQJHPHQWVLQRXUVWXG\ZKLOH6H.WLRQ,9H[DPLQHVWKHWHPSRUDO

DQG.RQWHPSRUDQHRXVLQWHUD.WLRQDPRQJWKHYDULDEOHVRILQWHUHVWDQG.RQWUDVWVWKHVHZLWKWKH

SUHGL.WLRQVRIWKHPRGHO7KH.RQ.OXGLQJVH.WLRQWRX.KHVRQVRPHRIWKHLPSOL.DWLRQVRIRXU


7/64

)RUDGLV.XVVLRQRIWKHVHLVVXHVVHH&DOYRDQG5HLQKDUWEDQG+DXVPDQQ

3DQL]]DDQG6WHLQ

ILQGLQJV

,,9DULHWLHVRI)HDURI)ORDWLQJ

0RWLYDWHGE\WKHHYLGHQ.HSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVSDSHUZHILUVWH[SORUHLQWKLVVH.WLRQZK\

OD.NRI.UHGLELOLW\PD\JLYHULVHWRIHDURIIORDWLQJSUR.\.OL.DOSROL.LHVDQGYRODWLOHLQWHUHVWUDWHV

HYHQLQQRUPDOSHULRGVZKHQ.RXQWULHVPDLQWDLQYROXQWDU\D..HVVWRLQWHUQDWLRQDO.DSLWDO

PDUNHWV:HWKHQGLV.XVVRWKHUUHDVRQVZK\SROL.\PDNHUVPD\GLVOLNHODUJHH[.KDQJHUDWH

VZLQJV

0RQHWDU\3ROL.\DQG/D.NRI&UHGLELOLW\

'HVSLWHWKHLUKHWHURJHQHLW\(0VWHQGWRVKDUHD.RPPRQ.KDUD.WHULVWL.WKH\DSSHDUWREH

UHOX.WDQWWROHWWKHLU.XUUHQ.LHVIOX.WXDWH7KLVOHDGVXVWR.RQMH.WXUHWKDWWKHUHPD\EHDWOHDVW

RQH.RPPRQ.DXVHOD.NRI.UHGLELOLW\,I.UHGLELOLW\LVQRW.RQIHUUHGWKHPRQHWDU\DXWKRULW\KDV

QRDXWKRULW\([SH.WDWLRQVZLOOUXOHWKHGD\7KHVH.UHGLELOLW\SUREOHPVPD\EHPDQLIHVWHGLQ

PXOWLSOHZD\VLQ.OXGLQJYRODWLOHLQWHUHVWUDWHVDQGVRYHUHLJQ.UHGLWUDWLQJV)XUWKHUPRUHOD.NRI

.UHGLELOLW\PD\JLYHULVHWROLDELOLW\GROODUL]DWLRQDQGOLPLWWKH.HQWUDOEDQNVDELOLW\WRD.WDVDQ

HIIH.WLYHOHQGHURIODVWUHVRUWDOORIZKL.KIHHGWKLVIHDURIODUJHH[.KDQJHUDWHVZLQJV

:H.DQXVHDVLPSOHYHUVLRQRID.RQYHQWLRQDOPRQHWDU\PRGHOWRSXWPRUHVWUX.WXUHRQ

WKHOD.NRI.UHGLELOLW\.RQMH.WXUH/HWXVDVVXPHWKDWWKHGHPDQGIRUPRQH\VDWLVILHVWKH

IROORZLQJ&DJDQIRUP


8/64

P H ( H H9 9 9 9 9

= >+

HP P

=

+

+

L H HP P

= =

+

ZKHUHPDQGHDUHWKHORJVRIWKHPRQH\VXSSO\DQGWKHQRPLQDOH[.KDQJHUDWHDQG(9LVWKH

PDWKHPDWL.DOH[SH.WDWLRQVRSHUDWRU.RQGLWLRQDORQLQIRUPDWLRQDYDLODEOHLQSHULRGWZKL.K

LQ.OXGHVPRQH\VXSSO\DQGH[.KDQJHUDWHLQSHULRGW7KHLQWHUHVWVHPLHODVWL.LW\SDUDPHWHULV

GHQRWHGE\

)RUVLPSOL.LW\.RQVLGHUWKH.DVHLQZKL.KPRQH\VXSSO\LQSHULRGVRQZDUGVWDNHVD

.RQVWDQWYDOXH 7KHQRQH.DQVKRZWKDWLQD5DWLRQDO([SH.WDWLRQVHTXLOLEULXPZHKDYH2

7KXVWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHLQSHULRGZKL.KZH.RXOGLGHQWLI\ZLWKWKHSUHVHQWLVDZHLJKWHG

DYHUDJHRISUHVHQWDQGIXWXUHPRQH\VXSSO\0RUHRYHUDQGE\WKHVDPHWRNHQH9 IRUW2

2QWKHRWKHUKDQGDVVXPLQJDJDLQIRUVLPSOL.LW\SHUIH.W.DSLWDOPRELOLW\DQGWKDWWKH

LQWHUQDWLRQDOLQWHUHVWUDWHHTXDOV]HURZHKDYHWKDWWKHQRPLQDOLQWHUHVWUDWHL9H9H9VDWLVILHV

&DVH3HUPDQHQW,Q.UHDVHLQ3UHVHQWP6XSSRVHWKDWWKHH.RQRP\ZDVDWVWHDG\VWDWHLH

PRQH\VXSSO\.RQVWDQWDW DQGLWLVVKR.NHGE\DQXQDQWL.LSDWHGRQ.HDQGIRUDOOLQ.UHDVHLQ2

WKHVXSSO\RIPRQH\LQSHULRG%\DQGWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHVXIIHUVDSHUPDQHQW

GHYDOXDWLRQD..RPSDQLHGE\QRLQWHUHVWUDWHYRODWLOLW\

&DVH3HUPDQHQW,Q.UHDVHLQ)XWXUHP%\DQGDSHUPDQHQWLQ.UHDVHLQIXWXUH


9/64

0RUHRYHUDVVKRZQLQ6DUJHQWDQG:DOOD.HDQG&DOYRLQWHUHVWUDWH

WDUJHWLQJPD\OHDYHWKHV\VWHPZLWKRXWDQRPLQDODQ.KRUHYHQLQWKH.DVHZKHUH.UHGLELOLW\LV

QRWDQLVVXH

= P H ( H H L9 9 9 9 9 9

2

= + >+

P P L9 9 9

2

= =

PRQH\VXSSO\ NHHSLQJP.RQVWDQWUHVXOWVLQDQLQ.UHDVHLQERWKWKH.XUUHQWH[.KDQJHUDWH2

DQGLQWHUHVWUDWH

8QGHU.LU.XPVWDQ.HVRISRRU.UHGLELOLW\DSROL.\PDNHUID.HGZLWK.XUUHQ.\GHSUH.LDWLRQ

ZKRGRHVQRWLQWHQGWRLQ.UHDVHIXWXUHPRQH\VXSSO\ID.HVDVHULRXVGLOHPPDLIPRQH\VXSSO\

LQSHULRGLVQRWDGMXVWHGXSZDUGWKHH[SRVWUHDOLQWHUHVWUDWHZLOOLQ.UHDVHSRVVLEO\JHQHUDWLQJ

GLIIL.XOWLHVLQWKHUHDODQGILQDQ.LDOVH.WRUV2QWKHRWKHUKDQGLIPLVMD.NHGXSWRVWDELOL]H

LQWHUHVWUDWHV.UHGLELOLW\.RXOGEHLPSDLUHGDQGIXWXUHH[SH.WDWLRQV.RXOGEH.RPHPRUHXQUXO\

DQGDUELWUDU\

7RLQ.UHDVHUHDOLVPOHWXVDVVXPHWKDWWKH.HQWUDOEDQNSD\VLQWHUHVWL2RQPRQH\DQG

WKDWWKHGHPDQGIRUPRQH\VDWLVILHV

ZKHUHaRQYDULDEOHPLVDUHPLQGHUWKDWLWUHIHUVWRLQWHUHVWHDUQLQJPRQH\&DOYRDQG9pJK

DUJXHLQUHODWHGPRGHOVWKDWWKLVLVDVLPSOHZD\WRLQWURGX.HWKHW\SL.DOO\YHU\VKRUWUXQ

LQWHUHVWUDWH.RQWUROOHGE\WKHPRQHWDU\DXWKRULW\,W.DQUHDGLO\EHYHULILHGWKDWHTXDWLRQVDQG

DUHVWLOOYDOLGIRUWKHSUHVHQWYHUVLRQLIRQHGHILQHV

+HQ.HXQGHUWKLVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQUDLVLQJ.HQWUDOEDQN.RQWUROOHG&%&LQWHUHVWUDWHVZRXOGEH

HTXLYDOHQWWRORZHULQJPRQH\VXSSO\,QWKLV.RQWH[WWKH.XUUHQ.\GHYDOXDWLRQWKDWZRXOGEH


10/64

)RUHPSLUL.DOHYLGHQ.HRQWKLVLVVXHVVHH&DOYRDQG5HLQKDUWE

.DXVHGE\DSRVLWLYHVKR.NRQIXWXUHPRQH\VXSSO\ .RXOGEHSDUWLDOO\RUIXOO\RIIVHWE\2

UDLVLQJ&%&LQWHUHVWUDWHVUH.DOOHTXDWLRQDW\SL.DOSROL.\IROORZHGLQ(0VZKHQWKH

H[.KDQJHUDWHWKUHDWHQVWRULVHVKDUSO\,QWHUHVWLQJO\E\WKHDVVR.LDWHGIDOOLQPUDLVHV

PDUNHWLQWHUHVWUDWHVHYHQPRUHWKDQLIWKH.HQWUDOEDQNVKDGVWD\HGSXW6RWKLVDQDO\VLVVXJJHVWV

WKDWLQSUD.WL.H(0VKDYHH[KLELWHGDSURLQWHUHVWUDWHYRODWLOLW\ELDV

,ISROL.\PDNHUVZHUHID.HGZLWKWKH.KRL.HEHWZHHQVWDELOL]LQJLRUVWDELOL]LQJHWKHQWKH

GH.LVLRQZRXOGEH.OHDUVWDELOL]HWKHH[.KDQJHUDWH([.KDQJHUDWHVWDELOL]DWLRQSURYLGHVWKH

H.RQRP\ZLWKD.OHDU.XWQRPLQDODQ.KRUZKLOHVWDELOL]LQJLQWHUHVWUDWHVGRHVQRW,QJHQHUDO

SROL.\PDNHUVZLOOILQGLWRSWLPDOWRDOORZIRUVRPHYRODWLOLW\LQERWKYDULDEOHVEXWDOZD\V

VWHHULQJ.OHDUIURPSHUIH.WLQWHUHVWUDWHVWDELOLW\7KLVVLPSOHH[HU.LVHLOOXVWUDWHVZK\.UHGLELOLW\

SUREOHPVPD\ELDVWKHRXW.RPHWRZDUGVORZHUH[.KDQJHUDWHDQGKLJKHULQWHUHVWUDWHYRODWLOLW\DV

ERUQHE\WKHID.WV

2WKHU5HDVRQVIRU)HDURI)ORDWLQJ

7KHSUH.HGLQJGLV.XVVLRQLOOXVWUDWHGZK\OD.NRI.UHGLELOLW\PD\OHDGWRDVLWXDWLRQZKHUH

SROL.\PDNHUVZLQGXSVWDELOL]LQJWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHHYHQDWWKHH[SHQVHRIHQJDJLQJLQ

SUR.\.OL.DOSROL.LHV+RZHYHUWKHUHDUHQXPHURXVRWKHUUHDVRQVZK\H[.KDQJHUDWHVWDELOLW\PD\

EHKLJKO\VRXJKW,Q(0VGHYDOXDWLRQVRUODUJHGHSUH.LDWLRQVWHQGWREHDVVR.LDWHGZLWK

UH.HVVLRQVQRWWKHNLQGRIEHQLJQRXW.RPHVWUHVVHGLQVWDQGDUGWH[WERRNV7KLVLVKDUGO\

VXUSULVLQJLQOLJKWRIWKHID.WWKDWLQ(0VWKHUHLVSHUYDVLYHOLDELOLW\GROODUL]DWLRQ'HIDXOWVDQG


11/64

JHQHUDOGHEWVHUYL.LQJGLIIL.XOWLHVPRXQWLIWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHLVDOORZHGVOLGHVLJQLIL.DQWO\7KH

DGMXVWPHQWVLQWKH.XUUHQWD..RXQWIROORZLQJWKHVHODUJHH[.KDQJHUDWHVZLQJVDUHIDUPRUHD.XWH

DQGDEUXSWLQ(0&UHGLWPDUNHWD..HVVLVDGYHUVHO\DIIH.WHGE\.XUUHQ.\LQVWDELOLW\([.KDQJH

UDWHYRODWLOLW\DSSHDUVWRE\PRUHGDPDJLQJWRWUDGHLQ(0VSHUKDSVEH.DXVHWUDGHLV

SUHGRPLQDQWO\LQYRL.HGLQ86GROODUVDQGKHGJLQJRSSRUWXQLWLHVDUHPRUHOLPLWHG7KH

SDVVWKURXJKIURPH[.KDQJHUDWHVZLQJVWRLQIODWLRQLVIDUKLJKHULQ(0VWKDQLQGHYHORSHG

H.RQRPLHV7KLVODWWHUREVHUYDWLRQVXJJHVWVWKDWLISROL.\PDNHUVDUH.RQ.HUQHGDERXWLQIODWLRQ

WKHUHZLOOEHDWHQGHQ.\WR.DSH[.KDQJHUDWHVZLQJV$OOWKHVHID.WRUVPD\KHOSH[SODLQZK\DW

OHDVWKLVWRUL.DOO\WKHUHKDVEHHQDPDUNHGWHQGHQ.\LQPRVWRIWKH.RXQWULHVLQRXUVDPSOHWR

.RQILQHH[.KDQJHUDWHPRYHPHQWVWRUHODWLYHO\QDUURZEDQGVDQLVVXHZHWXUQWRQH[W

,,,)HDURI)ORDWLQJ7KH(YLGHQ.H

7KHSUH.HGLQJDQDO\VLVVXJJHVWHGWKDWLIOD.NRI.UHGLELOLW\LVDVHULRXVSUREOHPZH

VKRXOGH[SH.WPRUHYRODWLOHLQWHUHVWUDWHVDQGPRQHWDU\DJJUHJDWHVLQPRVW(0VZHVKRXOGDOVR

H[SH.WOHVVYRODWLOHH[.KDQJHUDWHVDVSROL.\PDNHUVIHDUWKDWHIIRUWVWRVPRRWKLQWHUHVWUDWHVPD\

XQKLQJHH[SH.WDWLRQV7KHLPSOLHGSUR.\.OL.DOLW\RIPRQHWDU\SROL.\VXJJHVWVWKDWWKHDXWKRULWLHV

PD\WLJKWHQLQUHVSRQVHWRDGYHUVHVKR.NVVX.KDVDGH.OLQHLQWKHWHUPVRIWUDGH)XUWKHUPRUH

LIWKHVHYDULDEOHVDUHSDUWO\GULYHQE\.KDQJHVLQH[SH.WHGDVRSSRVHGWRD.WXDOPRQH\VXSSO\

ZHVKRXOGREVHUYHDSRVLWLYH.RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQH[.KDQJHDQGLQWHUHVWUDWHV,QWKLVVH.WLRQDQG

WKHQH[WZH.RQIURQWWKHVHSUHGL.WLRQVZLWKWKHGDWD

2XUGDWDLVPRQWKO\IRUWKLUW\QLQH.RXQWULHVLQ$IUL.D$VLD(XURSHDQGWKH:HVWHUQ

+HPLVSKHUHGXULQJWKH-DQXDU\$SULOSHULRG7KH.RXQWULHVDUH$UJHQWLQD$XVWUDOLD


12/64

2XUDQDO\VLVKRZHYHUGRHVQRWJLYHHTXDODWWHQWLRQWRDOOWKHVHUHJLPHV,QPRVWRI

WKHUHJLPHVLQWKHHDUOLHUSDUWRIWKHVDPSOHWKHUHDUHSHUYDVLYH.DSLWDO.RQWUROVZKL.KDUHOHVV

UHOHYDQWIRUWRGD\VHQYLURQPHQW$OVRDIHZRIWKHIORDWLQJH[.KDQJHUDWHHSLVRGHVR..XUGXULQJ

K\SHULQIODWLRQZKL.KPDNHVLWGLIIL.XOWWRLQWHUSUHWDQG.RPSDUHWKHUHVXOWVWRRWKHUHSLVRGHV

7KHH[.KDQJHUDWHLVHQGRISHULRG:KHQHYHUSRVVLEOHLQWHUEDQNLQWHUHVWUDWHVDUH

XVHGLIWKHVHDUHQRWDYDLODEOHDWUHDVXU\ELOOUDWHLVXVHG$OOWKH.RPSDUDEOHUHVXOWVIRUWKH

EURDGHUPRQHWDU\DJJUHJDWHVPRQH\DQGTXDVLPRQH\LQWKH,0)VGHILQLWLRQVDUHQRWUHSRUWHG

KHUHEXWDYDLODEOHIURPWKHDXWKRUV

%ROLYLD%UD]LO%XOJDULD&DQDGD&KLOH&RORPELD&RWH',YRLUH(J\SW(VWRQLD)UDQ.H

*HUPDQ\*UHH.H,QGLD,QGRQHVLD,VUDHO-DSDQHQ\DRUHD/LWKXDQLD0DOD\VLD0H[L.R

1HZ=HDODQG1LJHULD1RUZD\3DNLVWDQ3HUX3KLOLSSLQHV6LQJDSRUH6RXWK$IUL.D6SDLQ

6ZHGHQ7KDLODQG7XUNH\8JDQGD8UXJXD\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG9HQH]XHOD2QHKXQGUHG

DQGILIW\IRXUH[.KDQJHUDWHDUUDQJHPHQWVDUH.RYHUHGLQWKLVVDPSOH

,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHYDULDEOHVVWUHVVHGLQWKHDQDO\WL.DOIUDPHZRUNH[.KDQJHUDWHVQRPLQDO

DQGUHDOLQWHUHVWUDWHVDQGPRQH\ZHDOVRIR.XVRQWKHWLPHVHULHVSURSHUWLHVRILQWHUQDWLRQDO

UHVHUYHVDQGDEURDGDUUD\RI.RPPRGLW\SUL.HV.RQYHUWHGWRWKHOR.DO.XUUHQ.\WKDWDUHUHOHYDQW

IRUVSH.LIL..RXQWULHV

7KHPRWLYDWLRQIRULQ.OXGLQJWKHVHWZRYDULDEOHVLVVWUDLJKWIRUZDUG,Q

WKH.RQWH[WRIOHVVWKDQIUHHO\IORDWLQJH[.KDQJHUDWHVSXU.KDVHVDQGVDOHVRILQWHUQDWLRQDO

UHVHUYHVDUHURXWLQHO\DPHDQVIRUVPRRWKLQJH[.KDQJHUDWHIOX.WXDWLRQVRIWHQDORQJVLGHLQWHUHVW

UDWHSROL.\DVGLV.XVVHG$VUHJDUGV.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVZHZLVKWRH[DPLQHWKHH[WHQWWRZKL.K

WKHH[.KDQJHUDWHLVDOORZHGWREXIIHU.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVKR.NV,IWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHLVDOORZHG

WRD..RPPRGDWHWKHVHVKR.NVLQ.RXQWHU.\.OL.DOIDVKLRQDVWKHWH[WERRNPRGHOVVXJJHVWZKHQ

WKHUHDUHDV\PPHWUL.VKR.NVDQGIOH[LEOHH[.KDQJHUDWHVWKHQ.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVLQWKHOR.DO

.XUUHQ.\VKRXOGEHUHODWLYHO\VWDEOH%\.RQWUDVWLILQWHUHVWUDWHSROL.\LVSUR.\.OL.DODV

VXJJHVWHGHDUOLHUDQGWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHLVQRWDOORZHGWRDGMXVWLQUHVSRQVHWRWKHWHUPVRIWUDGH


13/64

6HHIRULQVWDQ.H&DOYRDQG5HLQKDUW

VKR.NWKHQ.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVLQWKHOR.DO.XUUHQ.\ZLOOEHYRODWLOH7KHLQWHUD.WLRQVDPRQJWKHVH

YDULDEOHVDUHH[DPLQHGLQ6H.WLRQ,9

,WLVZLGHO\DJUHHGXSRQWKDWWKHSXUHIORDWLVDQDUWLID.WRIH.RQRPL.VWH[WERRNV


14/64

5HDOLQWHUHVWUDWHVZLOOEHGHQRWHGE\U

WKH'0ZDVRZLQJWRWKHID.WWKDWWKLVZDVWKHPRVWSURPLQHQWUHVHUYH.XUUHQ.\LQ(XURSHDQG

DV*HUPDQ\ZDVWKHORZLQIODWLRQ.RXQWU\IRUPDQ\\HDUV.XUUHQ.LHVLQ(XURSHZHUHODUJHO\WLHG

WRWKH'0)RUWKHUHPDLQLQJ.RXQWULHVWKHGROODULVWKHXVXDODQ.KRU.XUUHQ.\RI.KRL.HDVWKH

ODUJHVWVKDUHRI(0VH[WHUQDOGHEWLVGHQRPLQDWHGLQ86GROODUVDQGZRUOGWUDGHLV

SUHGRPLQDQWO\GROODULQYRL.HG

:HGHQRWHWKHDEVROXWHYDOXHRIWKHSHU.HQW.KDQJHLQWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHIRUHLJQ

H[.KDQJHUHVHUYHVDQGEDVHPRQH\E\55PPUHVSH.WLYHO\7KH.KDQJHLQWKHLQWHUHVW

UDWHL9L9LVJLYHQE\L/HWWLQJ[.GHQRWHWKHDEVROXWHYDOXHIRUVRPH.ULWL.DOWKUHVKROGZH

.DQHVWLPDWHWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWWKHYDULDEOHLQTXHVWLRQ[ZKHUH[.DQEH55PP

DQGLIDOOVZLWKLQVRPHSUHVSH.LILHGERXQGV.RQGLWLRQDORQDSDUWL.XODUH[.KDQJHUDWH

DUUDQJHPHQW

)RUH[DPSOHLI[.LH[OLHVZLWKLQDSOXVPLQXVRQHSHU.HQWEDQGWKHQ

3[[.3HJ!3[[.)ORDWIRU[,QWKHWH[WERRN.DVHWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWWKH

PRQWKO\H[.KDQJHUDWH.KDQJHIDOOVZLWKLQWKHRQHSHU.HQWEDQGVKRXOGEHJUHDWHVWIRUWKHIL[HG

H[.KDQJHUHJLPHDQGORZHVWIRUWKHIUHHO\IORDWLQJDUUDQJHPHQWZLWKWKHRWKHUWZRW\SHVRI

DUUDQJHPHQWVVSUHDGLQWKHPLGGOH%H.DXVHVKR.NVWRPRQH\GHPDQGDQGH[SH.WDWLRQVZKHQWKH

H[.KDQJHUDWHLVIL[HGDUHD..RPPRGDWHGWKURXJKSXU.KDVHVDQGVDOHVRIIRUHLJQH[.KDQJH

UHVHUYHVWKHRSSRVLWHSDWWHUQVKRXOGSUHYDLOIRU.KDQJHVLQIRUHLJQH[.KDQJHUHVHUYHVDQGEDVH

PRQH\+HQ.HIRU[55DQGPP3[[.3HJ3[[.)ORDW7KXVWKH

SUREDELOLW\WKDW.KDQJHVLQUHVHUYHVDQGWKHPRQHWDU\EDVHIDOOZLWKLQDUHODWLYHO\QDUURZEDQGLV

DGH.UHDVLQJIXQ.WLRQRIWKHGHJUHHRIH[.KDQJHUDWHULJLGLW\DVPRQH\GHPDQGVKR.NVDQG


15/64

)RULQVWDQ.HIROORZLQJWKH(50.ULVLVPDQ\(XURSHDQ.RXQWULHVDGRSWHGDWOHDVWLQ

SULQ.LSOHSHU.HQWEDQGVIRUWKHH[.KDQJHUDWH6LPLODUO\XQWLOUH.HQWO\&KLOHKDG

.RPSDUDEO\ZLGHEDQGV2WKHUH[DPSOHVLQ.OXGH0H[L.RSULRUWR'H.HPEHUZKL.KKDGDQ

HYHUZLGHQLQJEDQGDVWKHORZHUHQGDSSUH.LDWLRQRIWKHEDQGZDVIL[HGDQGWKHXSSHU

.HLOLQJGHSUH.LDWLRQZDV.UDZOLQJ,VUDHODQG&RORPELDGXULQJ

.KDQJHVLQH[SH.WDWLRQVDUHD..RPPRGDWHGWRVPRRWKWKHH[.KDQJHUDWH

$VUHJDUGVLQWHUHVWUDWHVWKHSUHGL.WLRQVDUHOHVV.OHDU.XWUXQQLQJVWUL.WO\DORQJWKHOLQHV

RIWKHH[WHQWRIH[.KDQJHUDWHIOH[LELOLW\$VVKRZQLQ6H.WLRQ,,WKHYDULDELOLW\RILQWHUHVWUDWHV

LVPRUH.ORVHO\DOLJQHGZLWKWKHH[WHQWRI.UHGLELOLW\,IWKHDXWKRULWLHVOD.N.UHGLELOLW\DQGWKHUH

LVIHDURIIORDWLQJWKHQLUUHVSH.WLYHRIZKHWKHUWKHUHJLPHLV.ODVVLILHGDVDSHJRUDVDIORDW

LQWHUHVWUDWHYRODWLOLW\LVOLNHO\WREHKLJKHUWKDQZKHQSROL.LHVDUH.UHGLEOH+HQ.HWKHOLNHOLKRRG

RIREVHUYLQJUHODWLYHO\ODUJHIOX.WXDWLRQVLQLQWHUHVWUDWHVZLOOGHSHQGRQERWKOD.NWKH.UHGLELOLW\

RIWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHUHJLPHDQGRQWKHZLOOLQJQHVVRIWKHPRQHWDU\DXWKRULWLHVWRXVHLQWHUHVWUDWH

SROL.\DVDPHDQVRIVWDELOL]LQJWKHH[.KDQJHUDWH

0HDVXULQJ9RODWLOLW\([.KDQJH5DWHV

7DEOHSUHVHQWVHYLGHQ.HRIWKHIUHTXHQ.\GLVWULEXWLRQRIPRQWKO\H[.KDQJHUDWH.KDQJHV

LQSHU.HQWIRUUH.HQWRU.XUUHQWHSLVRGHVWKDWDUH.ODVVLILHGDVIUHHO\IORDWLQJUHJLPHV2XU

.KRVHQWKUHVKROGYDOXHVDUH[.DQG[.ZKL.KLVD.RPSDUDWLYHO\QDUURZEDQG

)RUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVIRUH[DPSOHWKHUHLVDERXWDSHU.HQWSUREDELOLW\WKDWWKHPRQWKO\86

'0H[.KDQJHUDWH.KDQJHIDOOVZLWKLQDUHODWLYHO\QDUURZSOXVPLQXVSHU.HQWEDQG)RUWKH

H[.KDQJHUDWHWKDWSUREDELOLW\LVVOLJKWO\KLJKHUDWSHU.HQW%\.RQWUDVWIRU%ROLYLD

&DQDGDDQG,QGLDDOOGH.ODUHGIORDWHUVGXULQJWKDWSHULRGWKDWSUREDELOLW\IDOOVLQWKHWR

SHU.HQWUDQJH$QDOWHUQDWLYHZD\RIVWDWLQJWKHVDPHID.WVLVWKDWWKHUHLVRQO\DERXWDSHU.HQW


16/64

7KHWVWDWLVWL.IRUWKHGLIIHUHQ.HLQPHDQVWHVWLVZLWKDSUREDELOLW\YDOXHRI

XQGHUWKHQXOOK\SRWKHVLVRIQRGLIIHUHQ.H

7KHYDULDQ.HRIWKHPRQWKO\.KDQJHV0H[L.DQSHVR86LVDERXWWZL.HDVODUJHDVWKH

YDULDQ.HRIWKHPRQWKO\.KDQJHVLQWKH86H[.KDQJHUDWHVHH&DOYRDQG5HLQKDUWE

)RUDVWXG\RI3HUXVIHDURIIORDWLQJVHH0RUyQ*RxLDQG2UPHxRZKR

HVWLPDWHDQLPSOL.LWLQWHUYHQWLRQEDQG)RUDGLV.XVVLRQRQ(DVW$VLDV'ROODU6WDQGDUGVHH

0.LQQRQ

SUREDELOLW\LQWKRVH.RXQWULHVWKDWWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHZLOO.KDQJHPRUHWKDQWZRDQGDKDOI

SHU.HQWRQDQ\JLYHQPRQWKYHUVXVPRUHWKDQIRUW\SHU.HQWIRUWKH86'02QDYHUDJHIRU

WKH.XUUHQW.URSRIUH.HQWIORDWHUVWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWWKHH[.KDQJHUDWH.KDQJHLV.RQWDLQHGLQ

WKLVPRGHUDWHSOXVPLQXVWZRDQGDKDOISHU.HQWEDQGLVRYHUSHU.HQWVLJQLIL.DQWO\DERYH

WKDWIRUWKH86DQG-DSDQ%\WKLVPHWUL.SRVW.ULVLV0H[L.RDSSUR[LPDWHVDIORDWPRUH

.ORVHO\WKDQDQ\RIWKHRWKHUVLQ.OXGLQJ&DQDGD

0RGHUDWHWRODUJHPRQWKO\IOX.WXDWLRQVLQWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHDUHHYHQUDUHUDPRQJWKHVR

.DOOHGPDQDJHGIORDWHSLVRGHV7DEOH)RU(J\SWDQG%ROLYLDWKHSUREDELOLW\RIDPRQWKO\

H[.KDQJHUDWH.KDQJHJUHDWHUWKDQWZRDQGDKDOISHU.HQWLVQLOWKLVZDVDOVRWKH.DVHIRU

,QGRQHVLDDQGRUHDXSWRWKH.ULVLV(YHQIRUVHOISUR.ODLPHGIOH[LEOHUDWHDGYR.DWHVVX.K

DV&KLOHDQG6LQJDSRUHWKHIUHTXHQ.\GLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHLUPRQWKO\H[.KDQJHUDWHIOX.WXDWLRQV

UHODWLYHWRWKH86GROODUGRQRWYDJXHO\UHVHPEOHWKDWRIWKH86'0RU86ZLWKD

VLJQLIL.DQWO\KLJKHUSURSRUWLRQRIREVHUYDWLRQVIDOOLQJZLWKLQDQDUURZEDQGLQWKH.DVHRI

6LQJDSRUHWKHUHLVDQSHU.HQWSUREDELOLW\WKDWPRQWKO\H[.KDQJHUDWH.KDQJHVDUHZLWKLQD

SHU.HQWEDQGZKLOHIRU&KLOHWKDWSUREDELOLW\LVRQO\PRGHUDWHO\ORZHU2QDYHUDJHWKHUHLVDQ

SHU.HQWSUREDELOLW\WKDWPDQDJHGIORDWHUVPRQWKO\.KDQJHVLQWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHDUH.RQILQHG

WRWKLVQDUURZEDQG7KLVH[.KDQJHUDWHVWDELOLW\YHUVXVWKH86GROODURU'0LILWLVD(XURSHDQ


17/64

$QLVVXHZHWDNHXSODWHULQWKLVVH.WLRQ

)URP7DEOHVZHKDYH3[.3HJ!3[./LPLWHGIOH[LELOLW\!3[.0DQDJHG)ORDWLQJ!3[.)ORDW

)RUWKH)ORDW3HJGLIIHUHQ.HWKHPHDQVWHVWWKHSUREDELOLW\YDOXHLVIRUWKH

)ORDW0DQDJHGLWLVIRUWKH0DQDJHG/LPLWHGIOH[LELOLW\WKHPHDQVWHVWWKHSUREDELOLW\

YDOXHLVZKLOHIRUWKH/LPLWHGIOH[LELOLW\3HJLWLV

.RXQWU\LVVXUSULVLQJLQOLJKWRIWKHID.WWKDWIRUPDQ\RIWKHHPHUJLQJPDUNHW.RXQWULHVGXULQJ

WKHVHHSLVRGHVLQIODWLRQUDWHVKDYHEHHQZHOODERYHWKRVHREVHUYHGIRUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG

WHUPVRIWUDGHVKR.NVKDYHEHHQIUHTXHQWDQGODUJH

1RWVXUSULVLQJO\WKHHYLGHQ.HSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHVDQGVKRZVWKDWIRUOLPLWHG

IOH[LELOLW\DUUDQJHPHQWVDQGIRUSHJVWKHSUREDELOLWLHVWKDWH[.KDQJHUDWH.KDQJHVDUH.RQILQHGWR

WKLVEDQGDUHHYHQJUHDWHUDWDQGSHU.HQWUHVSH.WLYHO\+HQ.HWKHREVHUYHGEHKDYLRU

D..RUGLQJWKH.KDQJHUDWHUHJLPHD..RUGVZLWKWKHSULRUVWKDWH[.KDQJHUDWHYDULDELOLW\LVOHDVWIRU

SHJVDQGJUHDWHVWIRUIORDWHUV

:KDWLVPRVWVXUSULVLQJLVWKHQDUURZQHVVRIYDULDWLRQD.URVVUHJLPHV:KLOHWKHPHDQ

SUREDELOLW\WKDWWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHLV.RQWDLQHGLQVLGHDWZRDQGDKDOIEDQGLVVLJQLIL.DQWO\

GLIIHUHQWZKHQ.RPSDULQJWKHIL[HGH[.KDQJHUDWHUHJLPHZLWKWKHIUHHO\IORDWLQJRWKHU

GLIIHUHQ.HVD.URVVUHJLPHVDUHEOXUUHG)RUH[DPSOHWKHDYHUDJHSUREDELOLW\WKDWSHU.HQW

IRUIUHHO\IORDWLQJUHJLPHVLVQRWVLJQLIL.DQWO\GLIIHUHQWIURPWKDWIRUPDQDJHGIORDWLQJZKL.K

LQWXUQLVQRWVLJQLIL.DQWO\GLIIHUHQWIURPWKHOLPLWHGIOH[LELOLW\DUUDQJHPHQW7KHUHLVDOVRQR

VWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQWGLIIHUHQ.HEHWZHHQWKHOLPLWHGIOH[LELOLW\.DWHJRU\DQGWKHSHJJHG

H[.KDQJHUDWH


18/64

0HDVXULQJ9RODWLOLW\,QWHUQDWLRQDO5HVHUYHV


19/64

2QHPD\DOVRZDQWWR.RQVWUX.WDQHVWLPDWHRILQWHUHVWHDUQHGE\WKHUHVHUYHKROGLQJV

DQGDGMXVWWKHUHSRUWHGVWR.NVD..RUGLQJO\7KLVLVZRUNLQSURJUHVV

6RZKLOHPRQWKO\.KDQJHVLQWKH0H[L.DQSHVR86H[.KDQJHUDWHDUHDOPRVWWZL.HDV

YDULDEOHDVPRQWKO\.KDQJHVLQWKH86UDWH.KDQJHVLQ0H[L.RVUHVHUYHVDUHWLPHVDV

YRODWLOHDV.KDQJHVLQ86UHVHUYHVDQGWLPHVDVYDULDEOHDV.KDQJHVLQ-DSDQVUHVHUYHVDQG

PRUHWKDQIRXUWLPHVDVYRODWLOHDV$UJHQWLQDVUHVHUYHV1RULVWKLVH[.OXVLYHO\DQHPHUJLQJPDUNHWSKHQRPHQRQ&DQDGDVDQG1HZ=HDODQGV

UHVHUYH.KDQJHVDUHDERXWVHYHQWLPHVDQGILYHWLPHVUHVSH.WLYHO\DVYRODWLOHDVWKDWRIWKH

8QLWHG6WDWHV

7KHGLIIHUHQ.HLVVWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQW

GROODUGHQRPLQDWHGDVVHWVKHQ.HIRUWKLVJURXSYDOXDWLRQ.KDQJHVDUHQRWDQLVVXH$V7DEOH

VKRZVWKHUHLVDERXWDSHU.HQWSUREDELOLW\WKDW-DSDQVPRQWKO\.KDQJHVLQIRUHLJQH[.KDQJH

UHVHUYHVIDOOVLQDSOXVPLQXVWZRDQGDKDOISHU.HQWEDQG,QWKH.DVHRI0H[L.RWKHUHLVRQO\D

SHU.HQWSUREDELOLW\WKDW.KDQJHVDUHWKDWVPDOOZKLOHLQWKH.DVHRI%ROLYLDWKDWSUREDELOLW\LV

HYHQORZHUQRWHWKDWIRUSRVW.ULVLVRUHDWKHUHLVRQO\DSHU.HQWSUREDELOLW\WKDWUHVHUYHV

.KDQJHVDUHLQVLGHWKHEDQG,QGHHGIRUDOORWKHU.RXQWULHVODUJHVZLQJVLQIRUHLJQH[.KDQJH

UHVHUYHVDSSHDUWREH.RPPRQSOD.H.RQVLVWHQWZLWKDKLJKHUH[WHQWRILQWHUYHQWLRQLQWKHIRUHLJQ

H[.KDQJHPDUNHWHYHQUHODWLYHWRZKDWLVWREHH[SH.WHGDSULRULIURPDIUHHO\IORDWLQJH[.KDQJH

UDWHUHJLPH

)RUWKHJURXSRIIORDWHUVWKHDYHUDJHSUREDELOLW\LVSHU.HQWOHVVWKDWRQH

KDOIWKH-DSDQ86DYHUDJH,QGHHGWKHREVHUYHGEHKDYLRURILQWHUQDWLRQDOUHVHUYHVUXQV

.RXQWHUWRRXUSULRUV355[.3HJ355[.)ORDW,QGHHGIRUWKHSHU.HQW

EDQGZHILQGWKDWUHVHUYHYDULDELOLW\LVKLJKHVWIRUWKHIORDWHUVDQGOHDVWIRUWKHOLPLWHG

IOH[LELOLW\DUUDQJHPHQWV

,QWHUHVW5DWH9RODWLOLW\/D.NRI&UHGLELOLW\DQG3UR.\.OL.DO3ROL.LHV


20/64

(J\SWDQG6LQJDSRUHDUHLQWHUHVWLQJH[.HSWLRQV

6HH&DOYRDQG5HLQKDUWEIRUGHWDLOV

$VGLV.XVVHGLQ6H.WLRQ,,SROL.\LQWHUYHQWLRQWRVPRRWKH[.KDQJHUDWHIOX.WXDWLRQVQHHG

QRWEHOLPLWHGWRWUDQVD.WLRQVLQIRUHLJQH[.KDQJHPDUNHWV:KLOHLQWHUHVWUDWHVLQWKH8QLWHG

6WDWHVDQG-DSDQDUHSUHGRPLQDQWO\VHWZLWKGRPHVWL.SROL.\REMH.WLYHVLQPLQGLQWHUHVWUDWH

SROL.\LQPDQ\RIWKHRWKHU.RXQWULHVLQRXUVDPSOHD..RUGVDPX.KKLJKHUZHLJKWWRWKH

VWDELOL]DWLRQRIWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHSDUWL.XODUO\ZKHQWKHUHDUH.UHGLELOLW\SUREOHPV,WZRXOGEH

GLIIL.XOWWRMXVWLI\WKHYHU\KLJKUHODWLYHYRODWLOLW\RIQRPLQDODQGUHDOLQWHUHVWUDWHVLQWKHVH

.RXQWULHVH[.OXVLYHO\RQWKHEDVLVRI.KDQJHVLQGRPHVWL.SROL.\IXQGDPHQWDOVDV7DEOHV

PDNHSODLQ7KHSUREDELOLW\WKDWLQWHUHVWUDWH.KDQJHVZLOOEH.RQILQHGWRDSOXVPLQXVILIW\

EDVLVSRLQWEDQGIRUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVLVDERXWHLJKW\WZRSHU.HQWHYHQLQ.OXGLQJWKHKLVWRUL.DOO\

WXUEXOHQWLQIODWLRQVWDELOL]DWLRQSHULRGRIWKHHDUO\V)RU-DSDQWKDWSUREDELOLW\LVHYHQ

KLJKHU%\.RQWUDVWGXULQJ0H[L.RVIORDWLQJH[.KDQJHUDWHUHJLPHWKHUHLVRQO\DQLQH

SHU.HQWSUREDELOLW\WKDWLQWHUHVWUDWH.KDQJHVZLOOEHOHVVWKDQRUHTXDOWRILIW\EDVLVSRLQWV6X.K

VWDELOLW\LQLQWHUHVWUDWHVVHHPVWRHOXGHPRVWHPHUJLQJPDUNHWVHYHQVRPHRIWKRVHZLWK.DSLWDO

.RQWUROVVX.KDV,QGLD

$VLVHYLGHQWLQ7DEOHPDMRULQWHUHVWUDWH.KDQJHVE\*VWDQGDUGVDSSHDUWREHWKH

UXOH:KLOHWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWLQWHUHVWUDWHV.KDQJHEDVLVSRLQWVILYHSHU.HQWRQDQ\JLYHQ

PRQWKLVDERXW]HURIRUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG-DSDQWKDWSUREDELOLW\LV.ORVHWRWKLUW\SHU.HQWIRU

0H[L.R3HUXDQG,QGLDDPRQJWKHIORDWHUV1RPLQDODQGUHDOLQWHUHVWUDWHVLQ,QGLDDUHDERXW

IRXUWLPHVDVYDULDEOHDVLQWKH86IRU0H[L.RLQWHUHVWUDWHVDUHDERXWWZHQW\WLPHVDVYDULDEOH

EXW3HUXKROGVWKHUH.RUG$UH.HQWH[DPSOHRI0H[L.RVXVHRIKLJKLQWHUHVWUDWHVDVDPHDQV


21/64

,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRQRWHWKDWVRPH.RXQWULHVZLWKDKLJKO\UHJXODWHGILQDQ.LDOVH.WRUDQG

OLPLWHG.DSLWDOPRELOLW\VLPXOWDQHRXVO\VKRZH[.KDQJHUDWHDQGLQWHUHVWUDWHVWDELOLW\H[DPSOHV

LQ.OXGH(J\SW,QGLDLQWKHHDUOLHUPDQDJHGIORDWLQJSHULRGHQ\DDQG1LJHULD

WROLPLWLQJH[.KDQJHUDWHSUHVVXUHVGHVSLWHDVORZLQJH.RQRP\DQGDQDGYHUVHWHUPVRIWUDGH

VKR.N.RPHVIURPWKHDIWHUPDWKRIWKH5XVVLDQ.ULVLVLQ$XJXVWRI

1RULV0H[L.RXQLTXHLQWKLVUHJDUGDPRQJ(0V7XUQLQJWRWKHPDQDJHGIORDWHUV7DEOHV

RWKHUHPHUJLQJPDUNHWVLQ.OXGLQJ%UD]LO&KLOH7XUNH\DQG8UXJXD\KDYHDQHTXDOO\

KLJKRUKLJKHULQ.LGHQ.HRIODUJHIOX.WXDWLRQVLQLQWHUHVWUDWHV7DEOH:KLOHLQWKH.DVHRI

7XUNH\DQG8UXJXD\LWLVDWOHDVWSDUWLDOO\RZLQJWRWKHLU.RPSDUDWLYHO\KLJKLQIODWLRQUDWHVWKDW

LVQRWWKH.DVHIRUWKHRWKHUV7KHSL.WXUHSDLQWHGE\WKHYRODWLOLW\RIUHDOLQWHUHVWUDWHV

$SSHQGL[7DEOHVDQGLVTXLWHVLPLODU

:KHQ.RPSDULQJLQWHUHVWUDWHEHKDYLRUD.URVVWKHIRXUW\SHVRIH[.KDQJHUDWHUHJLPHV

LQWHUHVWUDWHVDUHWKHPRVWVWDEOHIRUWKHOLPLWHGIOH[LELOLW\JURXSZKL.KLVDOPRVWH[.OXVLYHO\

PDGHXSRI(XURSHDQLQGXVWULDO.RXQWULHVDQGOHDVWVWDEOHIRUWKHPDQDJHGIORDWLQJJURXSZKL.K

LVSUHGRPLQDQWO\.RPSULVHGRI(0V,QGHHG&DOYRDQG5HLQKDUWEVKRZWKDWWKH

YDULDQ.HRILQWHUHVWUDWHVLQORZLQIODWLRQLQ(0VLVDERXWIRXUWLPHVWKDWRIGHYHORSHG

H.RQRPLHVWKDWJDSLVIDUJUHDWHUIRU.RXQWULHVZLWKDKLVWRU\RILQIODWLRQ

0RUHRYHUVX.KLQWHUHVWYRODWLOLW\LVQRWWKHUHVXOWRIDGKHULQJWRVWUL.WPRQHWDU\WDUJHWVLQ

WKHID.HRIODUJHDQGIUHTXHQWPRQH\GHPDQGVKR.NV,QUHDOLW\PRVWRIWKHVH.RXQWULHVGRQRW

KDYHH[SOL.LWRULPSOL.LWPRQH\VXSSO\UXOHV,QWHUHVWUDWHYRODWLOLW\ZRXOGDSSHDUWREHWKH

E\SURGX.WRID.RPELQDWLRQRIWU\LQJWRVWDELOL]HWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHWKURXJKRSHQPDUNHW

RSHUDWLRQVDQGOD.NRI.UHGLELOLW\

7KHSRVVLEOHSUR.\.OL.DOLW\RIPRQHWDU\SROL.\DVGLV.XVVHGLQWKH.RQWH[WRIWKHPRGHO


22/64

7KHVHUHVXOWVDUHQRWSUHVHQWHGKHUHEXWDUHDYDLODEOHIURPWKHDXWKRUXSRQUHTXHVW

SUHVHQWHGLQ6H.WLRQ,,LVDOVRHYLGHQWLQWKHKLJKYRODWLOLW\RIEDVHPRQH\ERWKUHODWLYHWRWKH

8QLWHG6WDWHVDQGUHODWLYHWRWKHH[.KDQJHUDWH7DEOHV2WKHUPRQHWDU\DJJUHJDWHVVKRZ

VLPLODUYRODWLOLW\,QWKH.DVHRIDIORDWZLWKDPRQH\VXSSO\UXOHZHVKRXOGH[SH.WWRVHH

3PP[.3HJ3PP[.)ORDW,QVWHDGZHILQGWKDWWKHYDULDELOLW\RIWKH

PRQHWDU\DJJUHJDWHVLVKLJKHVWIRUWKHIORDWHUVSDUWL.XODUO\(0V

([.KDQJHUDWHV.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVDQGIHDURIIORDWLQJ

6LQ.HWKHHDUO\OLWHUDWXUHRQRSWLPXP.XUUHQ.\DUHDVD.RPSHOOLQJ.DVHIRUIORDWLQJ

YHUVXVIL[LQJZDVPDGHIRUWKH.DVHVZKHUHLGLRV\Q.UDWL.VKR.NVZHUHNQRZQWREHIUHTXHQWDQG

ODUJH)RU.RXQWULHVZKHUHDODUJHVKDUHRIH[SRUWVLV.RQ.HQWUDWHGLQDKDQGIXORI.RPPRGLWLHV

VX.KLGLRV\Q.UDWL.VKR.NVDUHQRWGLIIL.XOWWRLGHQWLI\,QPDQ\(0VVZLQJVLQ.RPPRGLW\SUL.HV

DUHDUH.XUULQJVRXU.HRIGLVWXUEDQ.HV7KHVHUHDOVKR.NVLWLVDUJXHGUHTXLUHDQDGMXVWPHQWLQ

WKHUHDOH[.KDQJHUDWH,WIROORZVORJL.DOO\WKDWLIWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHLVDOORZHGWRDGMXVWZKHQ

WKHVHVKR.NVR..XURQHVKRXOGREVHUYHDVLPLODUGHJUHHRIYRODWLOLW\LQ.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVDQGWKH

H[.KDQJHUDWH3XWGLIIHUHQWO\.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVZKL.KDUHXVXDOO\TXRWHGLQGROODUVZKHQ

.RQYHUWHGWRWKHOR.DO.XUUHQ.\VKRXOGEHUHODWLYHO\VWDEOHDVSHULRGVZKHQWKH.RPPRGLW\SUL.H

JRHVGRZQXSWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHGHSUH.LDWHVDSSUH.LDWHV2I.RXUVHLIWKHUHLVIHDURIIORDWLQJ

WKHH[.KDQJHUDWHDGMXVWPHQWGRHVQRWR..XUDQGWKHGRPHVWL..XUUHQ.\SUL.HRIWKH.RPPRGLW\

DOVRIDOOV

)RUWKH.RXQWULHVLQWKHVDPSOHZKHUHSULPDU\.RPPRGLWLHVORRPODUJHLQH[SRUWVZH

KDYH.XOOHGLQIRUPDWLRQRQ.RPPRGLW\SUL.HV.RQYHUWHGWRWKHOR.DO.XUUHQ.\RQWKHLUWRS


23/64

H[SRUWV7KHYRODWLOLW\RI.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVIRUWKHYDULRXVH[.KDQJHUDWHDUUDQJHPHQWVLVWKHQ

.RPSDUHGWRWKDWRIWKHH[.KDQJHUDWH7DEOHVSURYLGHWKHGHWDLOV7KHXQLIRUPPHVVDJH

IURPWKHVHWDEOHVLVWKDW.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVLQWKHOR.DO.XUUHQ.\DUHIDUPRUHYRODWLOHWKDQWKH

H[.KDQJHUDWH)RUWKHJURXSRIIORDWHUVWKHSUREDELOLW\RIDPRQWKO\IOX.WXDWLRQVLQH[.HVVRI

ILYHSHU.HQWLVDERXWSHU.HQWZKLOHWKH.RPSDUDEOHSUREDELOLW\RID.KDQJHLQWKHH[.KDQJH

UDWHRIWKDWPDJQLWXGHLVDERXWSHU.HQW7KHJDSEHWZHHQ.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVDQGH[.KDQJHUDWH

YRODWLOLW\LVHYHQZLGHUIRUWKHPDQDJHGIORDWHUVZKL.KLV.RPSULVHGHQWLUHO\RI(0V)RUWKDW

JURXSWKHSUREDELOLW\RID.KDQJHLQH[.HVVRIILYHSHU.HQWLVRQO\DERXWSHU.HQWIRUWKH

H[.KDQJHUDWHDQGSHU.HQWIRU.RPPRGLW\SUL.HV)XUWKHUPRUHDVVKRZQLQ$SSHQGL[7DEOHV

LQWKHRYHUZKHOPLQJPDMRULW\RI.DVHVWKH.RUUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQ.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVDQGWKH

H[.KDQJHUDWHDUHORZDQGQRWVWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQW,QGHHGLQPDQ\.DVHVWKH\KDYHWKH

ZURQJVLJQLHSRVLWLYH

7KHVHREVHUYDWLRQVVXJJHVWWKDWGHVSLWHWKHUDWLRQDOHIRUD..RPPRGDWLQJUHDOWHUPVRI

WUDGHVKR.NVWKDWWKHOLWHUDWXUHRQRSWLPXP.XUUHQ.\DUHDVSURYLGHV.RXQWULHVLQ.OXGLQJPDQ\RI

WKHIORDWHUVRIWHQ.KRRVHQRWWRD..RPPRGDWHVKR.NV)HDURIDQDEUXSWH[.KDQJHUDWHVZLQJLQ

WKHVH.DVHVPD\GRPLQDWHWKHSHU.HLYHGQHHGWRDOORZIRUWKHQRPLQDODQGUHDOH[.KDQJHUDWHWR

DGMXVW

*HQHUDO2EVHUYDWLRQV$ERXWWKH)LQGLQJV

,QWKLVVH.WLRQZHKDYHSUHVHQWHGHYLGHQ.HWKDWWKHYDULDELOLW\LQLQWHUQDWLRQDOUHVHUYHV

EDVHPRQH\DQGLQWHUHVWUDWHVLVKLJKUHODWLYHWRWKHYDULDQ.HRIWKHH[.KDQJHUDWH7KH

SDUWL.XODUO\KLJKYDULDELOLW\LQLQWHUHVWUDWHVDQGPRQH\LQ(0VLV.RQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHSUHVHQ.HRI


24/64

)RUHYLGHQ.HRQWKHYDVWGLIIHUHQ.HVEHWZHHQ(0VDQGGHYHORSHGH.RQRPLHVLQWKH

.DSLWDOIORZUHYHUVDOVGXULQJGHYDOXDWLRQVDQGWKHLQ.LGHQ.HDQGVHYHULW\RIWKHGRZQJUDGHVLQ

VRYHUHLJQ.UHGLWUDWLQJVIROORZLQJWKHVHHYHQWVVHH&DOYRDQG5HLQKDUWDDQGE

.UHGLELOLW\SUREOHPVDQGSUR.\.OL.DOSROL.LHVRIWKHW\SHGLV.XVVHGHDUOLHU:HDOVRILQGWKDW

.RPPRGLW\SUL.HVLQWKHOR.DO.XUUHQ.\DUHIDUPRUHYDULDEOHWKDQWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHDQGWKDWWKHUH

LVOLWWOH.RUUHODWLRQDPRQJWKHWZR7KLVPD\VXJJHVWWKDWWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHLVQRWRIWHQDOORZHG

WRSOD\WKHVKR.NDEVRUEHUUROHWH[WERRNVDVVLJQWRLW7DNHQWRJHWKHUWKHVHILQGLQJVZRXOG

VXJJHVWWKDWLQPDQ\.DVHVWKHDXWKRULWLHVDUHDWWHPSWLQJWRVWDELOL]HWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHWKURXJK

ERWKGLUH.WLQWHUYHQWLRQLQWKHIRUHLJQH[.KDQJHPDUNHWDQGRSHQPDUNHWRSHUDWLRQVQRULVIHDURI

IORDWLQJOLPLWHGWRDSDUWL.XODUUHJLRQ,QGHHGLQ(0VKDVODUJHO\EHHQ.RQILQHGWREULHISHULRGV

IROORZLQJ.XUUHQ.\.ULVLVRU.KDRWL.HSLVRGHVRIK\SHULQIODWLRQ)XUWKHUPRUHWKHIDUJUHDWHU

YDULDELOLW\RILQWHUHVWUDWHVLQ(0VLVDSRVVLEOHLQGL.DWLRQWKDWOD.NRI.UHGLELOLW\LVDIDLUO\

.RPPRQSUREOHPHYHQLQQRUPDOSHULRGV$VVXJJHVWHGLQ6H.WLRQ,,WKH.UHGLELOLW\SUREOHPV

ID.HGLQPDQ\(0VPD\EHVRVHYHUHVRDVOHDGWRWKHSHULRGL.ORVVRID..HVVWRLQWHUQDWLRQDO

.DSLWDOPDUNHWV

,9,QWHUHVW5DWHDQG([.KDQJH5DWH'\QDPL.V

,QWKHSUH.HGLQJVH.WLRQZHH[DPLQHGWKHWLPHVHULHVSURSHUWLHVRIWKHYDULDEOHVRI

LQWHUHVWLQGLYLGXDOO\,QWKLVVH.WLRQZHH[DPLQHWKHOD.NRI.UHGLELOLW\K\SRWKHVLVE\IR.XVLQJ

RQWKHLQWHUD.WLRQEHWZHHQH[.KDQJHUDWHVDQGLQWHUHVWUDWHV7KHVLPSOHPRGHOGHYHORSHGLQ

6H.WLRQ,,VXJJHVWVWKDWDSHUPDQHQWLQ.UHDVHLQIXWXUHPRQH\VXSSO\NHHSLQJWKH.XUUHQWPRQH\

VXSSO\.RQVWDQWUHVXOWVLQDQLQ.UHDVHLQERWKWKH.XUUHQWH[.KDQJHUDWHDQGLQWHUHVWUDWH7KH

LQWHUHVWUDWHLQ.UHDVHLVHYHQJUHDWHULIWKH.HQWUDOEDQNLQ.UHDVHVLWVSROL.\UDWH7KLVLPSOLHVWKDW


25/64

'HVSLWHWKHID.WWKDWVRPHSHJVDUHD.WXDOO\QDUURZEDQGVWKDWDOORZIRUPRGHVW

YDULDELOLW\

LIWKHVHYDULDEOHVDUHSDUWO\GULYHQE\.KDQJHVLQH[SH.WHGDVRSSRVHGWRD.WXDOPRQH\VXSSO\

ZHVKRXOGREVHUYHDSRVLWLYH.RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHOHYHORIWKHH[.KDQJHDQGWKHLQWHUHVWUDWH

+RZHYHUDVVKRZQLQ6H.WLRQ,,,ZHDOVRILQGDPSOHHYLGHQ.HWRVXJJHVWWKDWWKHUHLV

.RQVLGHUDEOHLQWHUYHQWLRQLQWKHIRUHLJQH[.KDQJHPDUNHWLQPDQ\RIWKH.DVHVXQGHUVWXG\)RU

WKLVUHDVRQZHDOVRLQ.OXGHUHVHUYHVLQRXUDQDO\VLV

6LQ.HWKHWKUHHYDULDEOHVLQTXHVWLRQDUHQRQVWDWLRQDU\DOPRVWZLWKRXWH[.HSWLRQLQWKH

.DVHVZHDQDO\]HZHZRUNZLWKILUVWGLIIHUHQ.HV$VEHIRUHH[.KDQJHUDWHVUHVHUYHVDQG

LQWHUHVWUDWHVDUHGHQRWHGE\55DQGLUHVSH.WLYHO\7RH[DPLQHERWKWHPSRUDODQG

.RQWHPSRUDQHRXVOLQNVDPRQJWKHYDULDEOHVZHRSWIRUHVWLPDWLQJDYH.WRUDXWRUHJUHVVLRQ

9$57KHHVWLPDWLRQLVRYHUWKHSHULRGVSDQQHGE\DQH[.KDQJHUDWHUHJLPHWKHVHDUHWKH

HSLVRGHVVKRZQLQ7DEOHV2ZLQJWRLQVXIIL.LHQWYDULDELOLW\LQWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHZHGRQRW

LQ.OXGHLQWKLVSDUWRIWKHDQDO\VLVWKH.DVHVZKHUHWKHUHLVDSHJ7KLVPHWKRGRIGHILQLQJWKH

VDPSOHKDVWKHDSSHDOLQJIHDWXUHWKDWLWUHGX.HVWKH/X.DV.ULWLTXHW\SHSUREOHPDVZHGRQRW

VDPSOHYDULDEOHVD..URVVDUHJLPHVZLW.KZKHUHWKHLULQWHUD.WLRQPD\.KDQJH7KHODJOHQJWKZDV

.KRVHQRQD.DVHE\.DVHEDVLVXVLQJWKH6.KZDUW].ULWHULD

:HDUHLQWHUHVWHGLQWZRVHWVRIUHVXOWV7KHILUVWRIWKHVHIR.XVHVRQWKHWHPSRUDO

UHODWLRQVKLSVWKHVWDQGDUGEOR.NH[RJHQHLW\WHVWV7KHVH.RQGH[DPLQHVWKH.RQWHPSRUDQHRXV

UHODWLRQVKLSDPRQJWKHUHVLGXDOV

*LYHQWKHODUJHQXPEHURI.DVHVLQRXUVDPSOHZHVXPPDUL]HWKHUHVXOWVDVPX.KDV


26/64

7KHUHVXOWVRQD.RXQWU\E\.RXQWU\EDVLVDUHDYDLODEOHIURPWKHDXWKRUV

6HHIRUH[DPSOHWKHZHOONQRZQUHVXOWVRI0HHVHDQG5RJRIIRQWKHSRRUWUD.N

UH.RUGRIH[.KDQJHUDWHPRGHOV

SRVVLEOH7XUQLQJWRWKHWHPSRUDO.DXVDOLW\UHVXOWVILUVWWRSSDQHORI7DEOHSUHVHQWVD

VXPPDU\IRUHD.KRIWKHWKUHHHTXDWLRQVLQWKH9$5RIWKHSURSRUWLRQRI.DVHVZKHUHDSDUWL.XODU

.RHIIL.LHQWWDNHVRQDSRVLWLYHRUQHJDWLYHVLJQDQGLQIRUPDWLRQRIZKL.KWKHVHDUHVWDWLVWL.DOO\

VLJQLIL.DQWDWDILYHSHU.HQW.RQILGHQ.HOHYHO1RWVXUSULVLQJO\LQPRVWRIWKH.DVHVWKH

H[.KDQJHUDWHHTXDWLRQVKDYHWKHSRRUHVWILWZKLOHWKHLQWHUHVWUDWHHTXDWLRQKDVWKHEHVW

:HIR.XVRXUDWWHQWLRQRQWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHLQWHUHVWUDWHOLQN$VUHJDUGVKRZLQWHUHVW

UDWH.KDQJHVWHPSRUDOO\DIIH.WWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHHTXDWLRQQR.OHDURU

.RPSHOOLQJSDWWHUQHPHUJHV,QSHU.HQWRIWKH.DVHVWKH.RHIIL.LHQWRQWKHLQWHUHVWUDWH.KDQJH

LVSRVLWLYHZKL.KLVZKDW.DQEHH[SH.WHGZKHQWKHUHDUH.UHGLELOLW\SUREOHPVDQGLQWHUHVWUDWH

LQ.UHDVHVVLJQDOIXWXUHGHSUH.LDWLRQV,QWKHUHPDLQLQJSHU.HQWRIWKH.DVHVWKH.RHIIL.LHQWLV

QHJDWLYH7KLVZRXOGEHWKH.DVHZKHQWLJKWPRQHWDU\SROL.LHVUDLVLQJLQWHUHVWUDWHVOHDGWRD

IXWXUHDSSUH.LDWLRQ+RZHYHUUH.DOOLQJWKHPRGHOLQ6H.WLRQ,,ZKHQWKH.HQWUDOEDQN.RQWUROVD

SROL.\LQWHUHVWUDWHDULVHLQLQWHUHVWUDWHVWKDWLVDQRIIVHWWRDQH[SH.WHGSHUPDQHQWLQ.UHDVHLQ

WKHPRQH\VXSSO\PD\RQO\EHLQWHQGHGWRSUHYHQWPRVWRUDOORIWKHGHSUH.LDWLRQQRWHQJLQHHU

DQDSSUH.LDWLRQ$WDQ\UDWHRQO\LQWZHQW\SHU.HQWRIWKH.DVHVDUHWKH.RHIIL.LHQWVVLJQLIL.DQW

5HVHUYH.KDQJHVGRQRWDSSHDUWRWHPSRUDOO\.DXVHH[.KDQJHUDWH.KDQJHVLQRQHGLUH.WLRQRU

DQRWKHU

7XUQLQJWRWKHLQWHUHVWUDWHHTXDWLRQWKHPRVW.RPPRQSDWWHUQUHYHDOHGLQWKHGDWD

SHU.HQW.ROXPQLVWKDWH[.KDQJHUDWH.KDQJHVDUHSRVLWLYHO\UHODWHGWRVXEVHTXHQWLQWHUHVW


27/64

1RWHWKDWWKLV.DVHKDVWKHKLJKHVWSURSRUWLRQRI.DVHVZKHUHD.RHIIL.LHQWZDV

VWDWLVWL.DOO\VLJQLIL.DQW,WLVIROORZHG.ORVHO\E\DSRVLWLYHDXWRUHJUHVVLYHSDUDPHWHULQWKH

LQWHUHVWUDWHHTXDWLRQ.ROXPQ

6HH5HLQKDUWDQG0RQWLHODQG5HLQKDUWDQG5HLQKDUWRQWKHHYLGHQ.HRQ

VWHULOL]DWLRQSROL.LHVLQ(0V

UDWH.KDQJHV$GHSUH.LDWLRQOHDGVWRKLJKHULQWHUHVWUDWHVDVGLV.XVVHGHDUOLHUWKLVPD\EHWKH

.DVHLIHLWKHUWKH.HQWUDOEDQNVWD\VSXWXQ.KDQJHGPRUDOHVVWKDQIXOORIIVHWE\WKH.HQWUDO

EDQN,QWKLUW\RQHSHU.HQWRIWKH.DVHVWKH.RHIIL.LHQWVZHUHVLJQLIL.DQW5HVHUYH

D..XPXODWLRQPRVWRIWHQOHDGVWRDGH.OLQHLQLQWHUHVWUDWHZKL.KLVZKDW.DQEHH[SH.WHGLI

WKHUHLVRQO\SDUWLDORUQRVWHULOL]DWLRQ,QWKHUHVHUYHVHTXDWLRQLWLVZRUWKQRWLQJWKDWLQWZHQW\

SHU.HQWRIWKH.DVHVWKHUHLVHYLGHQ.HRIV\VWHPDWL.WHPSRUDOOHDQLQJDJDLQVWWKHZLQGIHHGED.N

UXOHZLWKUHVHUYHVIDOOLQJDVDUHVXOWRIGHSUH.LDWLRQ

:HQH[WWXUQWRWKH.RQWHPSRUDQHRXV.RUUHODWLRQVDPRQJWKHUHVLGXDOV7KHERWWRPSDQHO

VKRZVWKH.RUUHODWLRQSDWWHUQVDPRQJWKHWKUHHSDLUVRIUHVLGXDOVDQGLDQG55DQGL

DQG557KUHHEURDGSDWWHUQVSUHYDLOLQWKHGDWD)LUVW.RQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHOD.NRI.UHGLELOLW\

K\SRWKHVLVLQPRVWLQVWDQ.HVWKH.RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHH[.KDQJHUDWHDQGLQWHUHVWUDWHVLV

SRVLWLYH6H.RQGO\LQWZRWKLUGVRIWKH.DVHVWKH.RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQUHVHUYHVDQGWKHH[.KDQJH

UDWHLVQHJDWLYH7KLVPD\EHLQWHUSUHWHGDV.RQWHPSRUDQHRXVOHDQLQJDJDLQVWWKHZLQGDQLWLV

LQOLQHZLWKWKHKLJKGHJUHHRIUHVHUYHYDULDELOLW\DQGIHDURIIORDWLQJGLV.XVVHGHDUOLHU7KLUGO\LQ

QHDUO\WKUHHTXDUWHUVRIWKH.DVHVLQWHUHVW.KDQJHVDQGUHVHUYH.KDQJHVDUHQHJDWLYHO\.RUUHODWHG

7KLVKDVDWOHDVWWZRSRVVLEOHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQV2QHH[SODQDWLRQLVWKDWUHVHUYH.KDQJHVDUH

ODUJHO\XQVWHULOL]HGWKLVLVDWRGGVZLWKZLGHVSUHDGSUD.WL.HVRI(0VDQGGHYHORSHGH.RQRPLHV

DOLNH7KHRWKHUPRUHSODXVLEOHLQRXUYLHZLVWKDWUHVHUYHVDUHEXLOWXSLQJRRGVWDWHVRI


28/64

)RULQWHUHVWLQJGLV.XVVLRQRIWKHVHLVVXHVVHH)UDQNHO6.KPXNOHUDQG6HUYpQ

6HH*ROGVWHLQIRUH[DPSOH

QDWXUHLHORZHULQWHUQDWLRQDOLQWHUHVWUDWHVKLJKHU.UHGLELOLW\LQIODWLRQVWDELOL]DWLRQWKDWDUH

DVVR.LDWHGZLWKGH.OLQLQJLQWHUHVWUDWHVDQG.DSLWDOLQIORZV

,QVXPZKLOHPRUHZRUNLV.OHDUO\QHHGHGWRLGHQWLI\.UHGLELOLW\SUREOHPVDQGLWV

DWWHQGDQWIHDURIIORDWLQJWKLVDQDO\VLVLVEURDGO\.RQVLVWHQWZLWKVHYHUDORILWVLPSOL.DWLRQV

,QWHUHVWUDWHVDQGH[.KDQJHUDWHVPRYHLQWKHVDPHGLUH.WLRQPRUHRIWHQWKDQQRWDQGUHVHUYHV

GRQRWWXUQDEOLQGH\HWRH[.KDQJHUDWHIOX.WXDWLRQV

9&RQ.OXGLQJ5HPDUNV

6LQ.HWKH$VLDQILQDQ.LDO.ULVLVDQGWKHVXEVHTXHQW.ULVHVLQ5XVVLDDQG%UD]LOPDQ\

REVHUYHUVKDYHVXJJHVWHGWKDWLQWHUPHGLDWHH[.KDQJHUDWHUHJLPHVDUHYDQLVKLQJDQG.RXQWULHV

DURXQGWKHZRUOGDUHPRYLQJWRZDUG.RUQHUVROXWLRQVKDUGSHJVVX.KDV.XUUHQ.\ERDUGV

GROODUL]DWLRQRU.XUUHQ.\XQLRQVRUDWWKHRWKHUHQGIUHHO\IORDWLQJH[.KDQJHUDWHUHJLPHV2Q

WKHVXUID.HDWOHDVWWKLVVWDWHPHQWDSSHDUVWRD..XUDWHO\GHSL.WUH.HQWWUHQGV(OHYHQ.RXQWULHVLQ

(XURSH.KRVHWRJLYHXSWKHLUQDWLRQDO.XUUHQ.LHVZKLOH(.XDGRUZDVWKHILUVWRIZKDWPD\EH

VHYHUDO.RXQWULHVLQ/DWLQ$PHUL.DWRDGRSWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVGROODUDVLWVRIIL.LDOQDWLRQDOWHQGHU

$WWKHRWKHUHQGRIWKHVSH.WUXPRUHD7KDLODQG%UD]LO5XVVLD&KLOH&RORPELDDQGPRUH

UH.HQWO\3RODQGKDYHDQQRXQ.HGWKHLULQWHQWLRQVWRDOORZWKHLU.XUUHQ.LHVWRIORDWIUHHO\2QWKH

EDVLVRIODEHOVDWOHDVWLWZRXOGDSSHDUWKDW.XUUHQ.\DUUDQJHPHQWVDWWKHRXWVHWRIWKHQHZ

PLOOHQQLXPZLOOEHYHU\GLIIHUHQW,I.RXQWULHVKDYHHLWKHUKDUGSHJVRUIORDWLQJH[.KDQJHUDWHV

VRPHKDYHDUJXHGVSH.XODWLYHDWWD.NVDQG.XUUHQ.\.ULVHVZLOOEHDUHOL.RIWKHSDVW


29/64

0DQDJHGLQGHHGDVDOOH[.KDQJHUDWHPRYHPHQWVYHUVXVWKH86GROODUDUH.RQWDLQHG

ZLWKLQDRQHSHU.HQWEDQG

2I.RXUVHRQHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHVHGHYHORSPHQWVLVWKDWEXUQWWKHVHULRXVOLTXLGLW\

VKRUWDJHID.HGGXULQJWKH.ULVLVWKHVH.RXQWULHVDUHVHHNLQJWREXLOGDZDU.KHVWRI

LQWHUQDWLRQDOUHVHUYHVVRDVWRDYRLGKDYLQJVLPLODUSUREOHPVLQWKHIXWXUH


30/64

GLIIL.XOWWRGUDZJHQHUDOL]HG.RQ.OXVLRQV

2QH.KDQJHWKDWGRHVDSSHDUWREHWDNLQJSOD.H$VLDH[HPSWHGLVWKDWLQWHUHVWUDWHSROL.\

VX.KDVWKDWGLV.XVVHGLQ6H.WLRQ,,LVUHSOD.LQJIRUHLJQH[.KDQJHLQWHUYHQWLRQDVWKHSUHIHUUHG

PHDQVRIVPRRWKLQJH[.KDQJHUDWHV7KLVLVHYLGHQWLQWKHKLJKYDULDELOLW\RILQWHUHVWUDWHVLQ(0V

DQGLQWKHSUD.WL.HVRI.RXQWULHVOLNH0H[L.RDQG3HUX'RHVWKLVPDNH.RXQWULHVOHVVYXOQHUDEOH

WR.XUUHQ.\.ULVLV",WLVSRVVLEOHEXWQRWSUREDEOH$VORQJDVWKHUHLVIHDURIIORDWLQJ

LUUHVSH.WLYHRIKRZH[.KDQJHUDWHIOX.WXDWLRQVDUHVPRRWKHGWKHLQ.HQWLYHVIRUOLDELOLW\

GROODUL]DWLRQZLOOUHPDLQ)XUWKHUPRUHLQWKH.RQWH[WRIWKHIUDPHZRUNGLV.XVVHGHDUOLHUWKH

SUR.\.OL.DOLW\LQLQWHUHVWUDWHSROL.\ZLOOKDYHLWVOLPLWVMXVWDVLQWHUQDWLRQDOUHVHUYHVKDYHWKHLU

OLPLWDVLQWHUHVWUDWHKLNHVWRGHIHQGWKH.XUUHQ.\WDNHWKHLUWROORQWKHH.RQRP\DQGWKHILQDQ.LDO

VH.WRU(.RQRPL.WKHRU\SURYLGHVXVZLWKZHOOGHILQHGGLVWLQ.WLRQVEHWZHHQIL[HGDQGIOH[LEOH

H[.KDQJHUDWHUHJLPHVEXWZHDUHQRWDZDUHRIDQ\.ULWHULDWKDWDOORZVXVWRGLV.ULPLQDWHDVWR

ZKHQDPDQDJHGIORDWVWDUWVWRORRNOLNHDVRIWSHJ,QGHHGWKHHYLGHQ.HSUHVHQWHGKHUHVXJJHVWV

LWLVRIWHQTXLWHGLIIL.XOWWRGLVWLQJXLVKDPRQJWKHWZR$OOWKDWZH.DQVD\LVWKDWZKHQLW.RPHV

WRH[.KDQJHUDWHSROL.\GLV.UHWLRQUXOHVWKHGD\


31/64

5HIHUHQ.HV

%D[WHU0DULDQQHDQG$ODQ&6WR.NPDQ%XVLQHVV&\.OHVDQGWKH([.KDQJH5DWH

5HJLPH6RPH,QWHUQDWLRQDO(YLGHQ.H-RXUQDORI0RQHWDU$.RQRPL.V9RO

&DOYR*XLOOHUPR$6WDJJHUHG3UL.HVLQD8WLOLW\0D[LPL]LQJ)UDPHZRUN-RXUQDORI

0RQHWDU\(.RQRPL.V6HSWHPEHUSS

&DOYR*XLOOHUPR$&RQWDJLRQLQ(PHUJLQJ0DUNHWVZKHQ:DOO6WUHHWLVD.DUULHU

PLPHRJUDSK0D\ZZZEVRVXPGHGXH.RQ.LH.DOYRKWP

&DOYR*XLOOHUPR$&DSLWDO0DUNHWVDQGWKH([.KDQJH5DWH:LWK6SH.LDO5HIHUHQ.HWR

WKH'ROODUL]DWLRQ'HEDWHLQ/DWLQ$PHUL.DIRUWK.RPLQJLQ-RXUQDORI0RQH\&UHGLWDQG

%DQNLQJ

&DOYR*XLOOHUPR$DQG&DUPHQ05HLQKDUWD:KHQ&DSLWDO)ORZV&RPHWRD6XGGHQ6WRS&RQVHTXHQ.HVDQG3ROL.\2SWLRQVLQ3HQHQ00XVVDDQG$6ZRERGD

5HIRUPLQJWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\DQG)LQDQ.LDO6\VWHP:DVKLQJWRQ'&

,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU$XQGIRUWK.RPLQJ

&DOYR*XLOOHUPR$DQG&DUPHQ05HLQKDUWE)L[LQJIRU


32/64

5DWH5HJLPH7KLVSDSHUZDVSUHSDUHGIRUWKH%URRNLQJV7UDGH)RUXP3ROL.\

&KDOOHQJHVLQWKH1H[W0LOOHQLXP$SULO:DVKLQJWRQ'&

*ROGVWHLQ0RUULV6DIHJXDUGLQJSURVSHULW\LQDJOREDOILQDQ.LDOV\VWHP7KHIXWXUHLQWHUQDWLRQDO

ILQDQ.LDODU.KLWH.WXUHUHSRUWRIDQLQGHSHQGHQWWDVNIRU.H:DVKLQJWRQ'&,QVWLWXWHIRU

,QWHUQDWLRQDO(.RQRPL.VIRUWKH&RXQ.LORQ)RUHLJQ5HODWLRQV

*RVK$WLVK*XOGH$QQH0DULH2VWU\-RQDWKDQDQG:ROI+ROJHU'RHVWKH1RPLQDO

([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPH0DWWHU"1DWLRQDO%XUHDXRI(.RQRPL.5HVHDU.K&DPEULGJH

0$:RUNLQJ3DSHU1R-DQXDU\

+DXVPDQQ5L.DUGR8JR3DQL]]DDQG(UQHVWR6WHLQ:K\'R&RXQWULHV)ORDWWKH:D\

7KH\)ORDWPLPHRJUDSK,QWHU$PHUL.DQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQN1RYHPEHU

,0)0RQHWDU\3ROL.\LQ'ROODUL]HG(.RQRPLHV2..DVLRQDO3DSHU:DVKLQJWRQ'&

/HY\


33/64

'HDOLQJZLWKWKH&DSLWDO)ORZ3UREOHP,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI)LQDQ.HDQG

(.RQRPL.V9RO-DQXDU\

5RMDV6XDUH]/LOLDQDDQG6WHYHQ:HLVEURG%DQNLQJ&ULVLVLQ/DWLQ$PHUL.D([SHULHQ.HVDQG

,VVXHVLQ%DQNLQJ&ULVLVLQ/DWLQ$PHUL.DHGLWHGE\5+DXVPDQQDQG/5RMDV6XDUH]

,$'%:DVKLQJWRQ'&

6DUJHQW7KRPDV-DQG1HLO:DOOD.H5DWLRQDO([SH.WDWLRQVWKH2SWLPDO0RQHWDU\

,QVWUXPHQWDQGWKH2SWLPDO0RQH\6XSSO\5XOH-RXUQDORI3ROLWL.DO(.RQRP\SS


34/64

7DEOH([.KDQJH5DWH&ODVVLIL.DWLRQRYHUWKH


35/64

7DEOH([.KDQJH5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW )ORDWLQJ([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV

&RXQWU\ 3HULRG 3UREDELOLW\WKDWWKHPRQWKO\SHU.HQW.KDQJHLQ

QRPLQDOH[.KDQJHUDWHIDOOVZLWKLQ

SHU.HQWEDQG SHU.HQWEDQG

8QLWHG6WDWHV

'0

)HEUXDU\$SULO

-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO

$XVWUDOLD -DQXDU\$SULO

%ROLYLD 6HSWHPEHU'H.HPEHU

&DQDGD -XQH$SULO

,QGLD 0DU.K$SULO

HQ\D 2.WREHU'H.HPEHU

0H[L.R 'H.HPEHU$SULO

1HZ=HDODQG 0DU.K$SULO

1LJHULD 2.WREHU0DU.K

1RUZD\ 'H.HPEHU'H.HPEHU

3HUX $XJXVW$SULO

3KLOLSSLQHV -DQXDU\$SULO

6RXWK$IUL.D -DQXDU\$SULO

6SDLQ -DQXDU\0D\

6ZHGHQ 1RYHPEHU$SULO

8JDQGD -DQXDU\$SULO

$YHUDJHH[.OXGLQJ86DQG-DSDQ

6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQH[.OXGLQJ86DQG-DSDQ

0HPRUDQGXP7KH3RVW$VLDQ.ULVLVIORDWHUV

,QGRQHVLD -XO\$SULO

RUHD 1RYHPEHU$SULO

7KDLODQG -XO\$SULO


36/64

7DEOH([.KDQJH5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW 0DQDJHG)ORDWLQJ([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV




8QLWHG6WDWHV

'0

)HEUXDU\$SULO

-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO

%ROLYLD -DQXDU\$SULO

%UD]LO -XO\'H.HPEHU

&KLOH 2.WREHU$SULO

&RORPELD -DQXDU\$SULO

(J\SW )HEUXDU\'H.HPEHU

*UHH.H -DQXDU\'H.HPEHU

,QGLD )HEUXDU\)HEUXDU\

,QGRQHVLD 1RYHPEHU-XQH

,VUDHO 'H.HPEHU$SULO

HQ\D -DQXDU\$SULO

RUHD 0DU.K2.WREHU

0DOD\VLD 'H.HPEHU6HSWHPEHU

0H[L.R -DQXDU\1RYHPEHU

1RUZD\ -DQXDU\$SULO

3DNLVWDQ -DQXDU\$SULO

6LQJDSRUH -DQXDU\$SULO

7XUNH\ -DQXDU\$SULO

8UXJXD\ -DQXDU\$SULO

9HQH]XHOD $SULO$SULO




37/64

7DEOH([.KDQJH5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW /LPLWHG)OH[LELOLW\ ([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV




8QLWHG6WDWHV

'0

)HEUXDU\$SULO

-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO

)UDQ.H 0DU.K$SULO

*UHH.H -DQXDU\$SULO

0DOD\VLD -DQXDU\)HEUXDU\

6SDLQ -XQH$SULO

6ZHGHQ -XQH2.WREHU




38/64

7DEOH([.KDQJH5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW )L[HG([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV




8QLWHG6WDWHV

'0

)HEUXDU\$SULO

-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO

$UJHQWLQD 0DU.K$SULO

%XOJDULD -XQH1RYHPEHU

&RWH',YRLUH -DQXDU\$SULO

(VWRQLD -XQH1RYHPEHU

HQ\D -DQXDU\6HSWHPEHU

/LWKXDQLD $SULO1RYHPEHU

0DOD\VLD 0DU.K1RYHPEHU

1LJHULD $SULO$SULO

1RUZD\ 'H.HPEHU1RYHPEHU

6LQJDSRUH -DQXDU\'H.HPEHU

7KDLODQG -DQXDU\-XQH

9HQH]XHOD -XO\0DU.K



5H.HQWSHJVZLWKIHZPRQWKO\REVHUYDWLRQVDUH0DOD\VLDLQ6HSWHPEHUDQG(J\SWLQ-DQXDU\


39/64

7DEOH)RUHLJQ([.KDQJH5HVHUYH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW )ORDWLQJ

([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV


IRUHLJQH[.KDQJHUHVHUYHVIDOOVZLWKLQ

SHU.HQW

EDQG

SHU.HQWEDQG

8QLWHG6WDWHV )HEUXDU\$SULO

-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO



&DQDGD -XQH$SULO

,QGLD 0DU.K$SULO






3HUX $XJXVW$SULO



6SDLQ -DQXDU\0D\


8JDQGD -DQXDU\$SULO

9HQH]XHOD 0DU.K-XQH




,QGRQHVLD -XO\$SULO

RUHD 1RYHPEHU$SULO

7KDLODQG -XO\$SULO

5HVHUYHVDUHLQ86GROODUV6LQ.HWKH86KROGVLWVUHVHUYHVLQIRUHLJQ.XUUHQ.LHVPX.KRIWKHIOX.WXDWLRQVLQWKHVH

VLPSO\UHIOH.WYDOXDWLRQ.KDQJHVDULVLQJIURPIOX.WXDWLRQVLQWKHGROODU


40/64

7DEOH)RUHLJQ([.KDQJH5HVHUYH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW 0DQDJHG)ORDWLQJ

([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV



SHU.HQW

EDQG

SHU.HQWEDQG


-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO


%UD]LO -XO\'H.HPEHU

&KLOH 2.WREHU$SULO







HQ\D -DQXDU\$SULO

RUHD 0DU.K2.WREHU



1RUZD\ -DQXDU\$SULO



7XUNH\ -DQXDU\$SULO








41/64

7DEOH)RUHLJQ([.KDQJH5HVHUYH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW /LPLWHG)OH[LELOLW\ ([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV




8QLWHG6WDWHV

'0

)HEUXDU\$SULO

-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO

)UDQ.H 0DU.K$SULO

*HUPDQ\ 0DU.K$SULO

*UHH.H -DQXDU\$SULO


6SDLQ -XQH$SULO

6ZHGHQ -XQH2.WREHU




42/64

7DEOH)RUHLJQ([.KDQJH5HVHUYH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW )L[HG

([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV



SHU.HQWEDQG

SHU.HQWEDQG


-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO








1LJHULD $SULO$SULO










43/64

7DEOH1RPLQDO,QWHUHVW5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW )ORDWLQJ

([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV

&RXQWU\ 3HULRG 3UREDELOLW\WKDWWKHPRQWKO\.KDQJHLQQRPLQDO

LQWHUHVWUDWHIDOOVZLWKLQ

SHU.HQW

EDVLVSRLQWV

SHU.HQW

EDVLVSRLQWV


-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO



&DQDGD -XQH$SULO

,QGLD 0DU.K$SULO






3HUX $XJXVW$SULO



6SDLQ -DQXDU\0D\


8JDQGD -DQXDU\$SULO

9HQH]XHOD 0DU.K-XQH




,QGRQHVLD -XO\$SULO

RUHD 1RYHPEHU$SULO

7KDLODQG -XO\$SULO


44/64

7DEOH1RPLQDO,QWHUHVW5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW )ORDWLQJ

([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV.RQWLQXHG


LQWHUHVWUDWHLVJUHDWHUWKDQ

SHU.HQWEDVLVSRLQWV

SHU.HQWEDVLVSRLQWV


-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO



&DQDGD -XQH$SULO

,QGLD 0DU.K$SULO






3HUX $XJXVW$SULO



6SDLQ -DQXDU\0D\


8JDQGD -DQXDU\$SULO

9HQH]XHOD 0DU.K-XQH




,QGRQHVLD -XO\$SULO

RUHD 1RYHPEHU$SULO

7KDLODQG -XO\$SULO


45/64

7DEOH1RPLQDO,QWHUHVW5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW 0DQDJHG)ORDWLQJ

([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV



SHU.HQW

EDVLVSRLQWV

SHU.HQW

EDVLVSRLQWV


-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO


%UD]LO -XO\'H.HPEHU

&KLOH 2.WREHU$SULO







HQ\D -DQXDU\$SULO

RUHD 0DU.K2.WREHU



1RUZD\ -DQXDU\$SULO



7XUNH\ -DQXDU\$SULO


9HQH]XHOD $SULO$SULO QD QD




46/64

7DEOH1RPLQDO,QWHUHVW5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW 0DQDJHG)ORDWLQJ




SHU.HQWEDVLVSRLQWV

SHU.HQWEDVLVSRLQWV


-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO


%UD]LO -XO\'H.HPEHU

&KLOH 2.WREHU$SULO







HQ\D -DQXDU\$SULO

RUHD 0DU.K2.WREHU



1RUZD\ -DQXDU\$SULO



7XUNH\ -DQXDU\$SULO


9HQH]XHOD $SULO$SULO QD QD




47/64

7DEOH1RPLQDO,QWHUHVW5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW /LPLWHG)OH[LELOLW\

([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV



SHU.HQW

EDVLVSRLQWV

SHU.HQW

EDVLVSRLQWV


-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO

)UDQ.H 0DU.K$SULO

*HUPDQ\ 0DU.K$SULO

*UHH.H -DQXDU\$SULO


6SDLQ -XQH$SULO

6ZHGHQ -XQH2.WREHU




48/64

7DEOH1RPLQDO,QWHUHVW5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW /LPLWHG)OH[LELOLW\




SHU.HQWEDVLVSRLQWV

SHU.HQWEDVLVSRLQWV


-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO

)UDQ.H 0DU.K$SULO

*HUPDQ\ 0DU.K$SULO

*UHH.H -DQXDU\$SULO


6SDLQ -XQH$SULO

6ZHGHQ -XQH2.WREHU




49/64

7DEOH1RPLQDO,QWHUHVW5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW )L[HG

([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV



SHU.HQW

EDVLVSRLQWV

SHU.HQW

EDVLVSRLQWV


-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO








1LJHULD $SULO$SULO







50/64

7DEOH1RPLQDO,QWHUHVW5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW )L[HG




SHU.HQWEDVLVSRLQWV

SHU.HQWEDVLVSRLQWV


-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO








1LJHULD $SULO$SULO







51/64

7DEOH9RODWLOLW\LQ%DVH0RQH\5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW)ORDWLQJ([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV


QRPLQDOPRQHWDU\EDVHUDWHIDOOVZLWKLQ


8QLWHG6WDWHV

'0

)HEUXDU\$SULO

-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO



&DQDGD -XQH$SULO

,QGLD 0DU.K$SULO






3HUX $XJXVW$SULO



6SDLQ -DQXDU\0D\


8JDQGD -DQXDU\$SULO

9HQH]XHOD 0DU.K-XQH

$YHUDJHH[.OXGLQJ86

DQG-DSDQ

6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQH[.OXGLQJ86

DQG-DSDQ


,QGRQHVLD -XO\$SULO

RUHD 1RYHPEHU$SULO

7KDLODQG -XO\$SULO


52/64

7DEOH9RODWLOLW\LQ%DVH0RQH\5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW0DQDJHG)ORDWLQJ([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV




8QLWHG6WDWHV

'0

)HEUXDU\$SULO

-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO


%UD]LO -XO\'H.HPEHU

&KLOH 2.WREHU$SULO







HQ\D -DQXDU\$SULO

RUHD 0DU.K2.WREHU



1RUZD\ -DQXDU\$SULO



7XUNH\ -DQXDU\$SULO



$YHUDJHH[.OXGLQJ86

DQG-DSDQ


DQG-DSDQ


53/64

7DEOH9RODWLOLW\LQ%DVH0RQH\5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW/LPLWHG)OH[LELOLW\ ([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV




8QLWHG6WDWHV

'0

)HEUXDU\$SULO

-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO

)UDQ.H 0DU.K$SULO

*HUPDQ\ 0DU.K$SULO

*UHH.H -DQXDU\$SULO


6SDLQ -XQH$SULO

6ZHGHQ -XQH2.WREHU

$YHUDJHH[.OXGLQJ86

DQG-DSDQ


DQG-DSDQ


54/64

7DEOH9RODWLOLW\LQ%DVH0RQH\5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW)L[HG([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV




8QLWHG6WDWHV

'0

)HEUXDU\$SULO

-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO








1LJHULD $SULO$SULO







55/64

7DEOH&RPPRGLW\3UL.H9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW )ORDWLQJ([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV

&RXQWU\DQGUHOHYDQW.RPPRGLW\LHV

3HULRG 3UREDELOLW\WKDWWKHPRQWKO\SHU.HQW.KDQJHIDOOVZLWKLQ

5HOHYDQW.RPPRGLW\SUL.HV H[.KDQJHUDWH

SHU.HQW

EDQG

SHU.HQW

EDQG

SHU.HQW

EDQG

$XVWUDOLD:KHDW:RRO&RDO

-DQXDU\$SULO

%ROLYLD7LQ=LQ.

6HSWHPEHU'H.HPEHU

&DQDGD:KHDW6RIWZRRG1HZVSULQW/RJV$OXPLQXP

-XQH$SULO

,QGLD&RWWRQ7HD0DQJDQHVH

0DU.K$SULO

HQ\D%HYHUDJHV7HD

2.WREHU'H.HPEHU

0H[L.R2LO 'H.HPEHU$SULO

1HZ=HDODQG:RRO/DPE

0DU.K$SULO

1LJHULD2LO*URXQGQXWRLO*URXQGQXW

2.WREHU0DU.K

1RUZD\2LO$OXPLQXP)LVK

'H.HPEHU'H.HPEHU

3HUX0HWDOV)LVK

$XJXVW$SULO

3KLOLSSLQHV&R.RQXWRLO6XJDU

-DQXDU\$SULO


6ZHGHQ3XOS 1RYHPEHU$SULO

8JDQGD&RIIHH7HD&RWWRQ

-DQXDU\$SULO

$YHUDJH

6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ


56/64

7DEOH([.KDQJH5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW 0DQDJHG)ORDWLQJ([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV

&RXQWU\DQG

UHOHYDQW.RPPRGLW\

LHV

3HULRG 3UREDELOLW\WKDWWKHPRQWKO\SHU.HQW.KDQJH

IDOOVZLWKLQ

5HOHYDQW.RPPRGLW\SUL.HV ([.KDQJH

UDWH

SHU.HQWEDQG

SHU.HQWEDQG

SHU.HQW

EDQG

%ROLYLD7LQ

=LQ.

-DQXDU\$SULO

%UD]LO&RIIHH

6XJDU

&D.DR

-XO\'H.HPEHU

&KLOH&RSSHU 2.WREHU$SULO

&RORPELD&RIIHH2LO

-DQXDU\$SULO

,QGLD&RWWRQ

7HD

0DQJDQHVH

)HEUXDU\)HEUXDU\

,QGRQHVLD&UXGHRLO 1RYHPEHU-XQH

HQ\D%HYHUDJHV

7HD

-DQXDU\$SULO

0DOD\VLD3DOPRLO

5XEEHU

7LQ

'H.HPEHU6HSWHPEHU

0H[L.R2LO -DQXDU\1RYHPEHU

1RUZD\2LO

$OXPLQXP

)LVK

-DQXDU\$SULO

3DNLVWDQ&RWWRQ

5L.H

-DQXDU\$SULO

8UXJXD\0HDW

:RRO

-DQXDU\$SULO

9HQH]XHOD2LO0HWDOV $SULO$SULO

$YHUDJH

6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ


57/64

7DEOH([.KDQJH5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW /LPLWHG)OH[LELOLW\ ([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV

&RXQWU\DQG

UHOHYDQW.RPPRGLW\

LHV


IDOOVZLWKLQ


UDWH

SHU.HQWEDQG

SHU.HQW

EDQG

SHU.HQWEDQG

6ZHGHQ3XOS -XQH2.WREHU


58/64

7DEOH([.KDQJH5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW )L[HG([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV

&RXQWU\DQGUHOHYDQW

.RPPRGLW\LHV


IDOOVZLWKLQ


UDWH

SHU.HQWEDQG

SHU.HQWEDQG

SHU.HQWEDQG

$UJHQWLQD:KHDW

)UR]HQEHHI

0DU.K$SULO

&RWH',YRLUH

%HYHUDJHV

&RIIHH&D.DR

-DQXDU\$SULO

HQ\D%HYHUDJHV

7HD

-DQXDU\6HSWHPEHU

0DOD\VLD3DOPRLO5XEEHU

7LQ

0DU.K1RYHPEHU

1LJHULD2LO

*URXQGQXWRLO

*URXQGQXW

$SULO$SULO

1RUZD\2LO

$OXPLQXP

)LVK

'H.HPEHU1RYHPEHU

7KDLODQG0DL]H

5XEEHU5L.H

7LQ

-DQXDU\-XQH

9HQH]XHOD2LO

0HWDOV

-XO\0DU.K





59/64

7DEOH7KH7HPSRUDODQG&RQWHPSRUDQHRXV,QWHUD.WLRQ3DWWHUQV

7HPSRUDO&DXVDOLW\

3URSRUWLRQRIWKH.DVHVLQZKL.KWKH.RHIIL.LHQWVDUH

([.KDQJHUDWHHTXDWLRQ ,QWHUHVWUDWHHTXDWLRQL9 5HVHUYHV(TXDWLRQ55

L9 55 L9 55 L9 55

3RVLWLYH

3RVLWLYH

DQG

VLJQLIL.DQW

1HJDWLYH

1HJDWLYH

DQG

VLJQLIL.DQW

&RQWHPSRUDQHRXV.RUUHODWLRQV3URSRUWLRQRIWKH.DVHVLQZKL.KWKH.RUUHODWLRQ.RHIIL.LHQWVRIWKHUHVLGXDOVDUH

&RUUL9 &RUU55 &RUUL955

3RVLWLYH

3RVLWLYH

DQG

VLJQLIL.DQW

1HJDWLYH

1HJDWLYHDQG

VLJQLIL.DQW


60/64

$SSHQGL[7DEOH5HDO,QWHUHVW5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW)ORDWLQJ

([.KDQJH5DWH5HJLPHV

&RXQWU\ 3HULRG 3UREDELOLW\WKDWWKHPRQWKO\.KDQJHLQUHDO


SHU.HQW

EDVLVSRLQWV

SHU.HQW

EDVLVSRLQWV


-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO



&DQDGD -XQH$SULO

,QGLD 0DU.K$SULO






3HUX $XJXVW$SULO



6SDLQ -DQXDU\0D\


8JDQGD -DQXDU\$SULO

9HQH]XHOD 0DU.K-XQH


,QGRQHVLD -XO\$SULO

RUHD 1RYHPEHU$SULO

7KDLODQG -XO\$SULO


61/64

$SSHQGL[7DEOH1RPLQDO,QWHUHVW5DWH9RODWLOLW\LQ5H.HQWRU&XUUHQW )ORDWLQJ




SHU.HQW

EDVLVSRLQWV

SHU.HQW

EDVLVSRLQWV


-DSDQ )HEUXDU\$SULO



&DQDGD -XQH$SULO

,QGLD 0DU.K$SULO






3HUX $XJXVW$SULO



6SDLQ -DQXDU\0D\


8JDQGD -DQXDU\$SULO

9HQH]XHOD 0DU.K-XQH


,QGRQHVLD -XO\$SULO

RUHD 1RYHPEHU$SULO

7KDLODQG -XO\$SULO


62/64

$SSHQGL[7DEOH&RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ&KDQJHVLQ&RPPRGLW\3UL.HVDQG&KDQJHVLQWKH([.KDQJH5DWH

)ORDWLQJ([.KDQJH5DWHV

&RXQWU\ &RPPRGLW\ 3HULRG &RUUHODWLRQ 6WDQGDUG(UURU

$XVWUDOLD :KHDW -DQXDU\WR

$SULO

:RRO

&RDO

%ROLYLD 7LQ 6HSWHPEHUWR

'H.HPEHU

=LQ.

&DQDGD :KHDW -XQHWR

$SULO

6RIWZRRG

1HZVSULQW

/RJV

$OXPLQXP

,QGLD &RWWRQ 0DU.KWR

$SULO

7HD

0DQJDQHVH

HQ\D %HYHUDJHV 2.WREHUWR

'H.HPEHU

7HD

0H[L.R 2LO 'H.WR$SU

1HZ=HDODQG :RRO 0DU.KWR

$SULO

/DPE

1LJHULD 2LO 2.WREHUWR

0DU.K

*URXQGQXW2LO

*URXQGQXW

1RUZD\ 2LO 'H.HPEHUWR

'H.HPEHU

$OXPLQXP

)LVK

3HUX 0HWDOV $XJXVWWR

$SULO

)LVK

3KLOLSSLQHV &R.RQXW2LO -DQXDU\WR

$SULO

6XJDU

6ZHGHQ 3XOS 1RYWR$SU PLVVLQJGDWD

8JDQGD &RIIHH -DQXDU\WR

$SULO

7HD

&RWWRQ


63/64

$SSHQGL[7DEOH&RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ&KDQJHVLQ&RPPRGLW\3UL.HVDQG&KDQJHVLQWKH([.KDQJH5DWH0DQDJHG)ORDWLQJ


%ROLYLD 7LQ -DQXDU\WR

$SULO

=LQ.

%UD]LO &RIIHH -XO\WR

'H.HPEHU

6XJDU

&D.DR

&KLOH &RSSHU 2.WWR$SU

&RORPELD &RIIHH -DQXDU\WR

$SULO

2LO

,QGLD &RWWRQ )HEUXDU\WR

)HEUXDU\

7HD

0DQJDQHVH

,QGRQHVLD &UXGH2LO 1RYWR-XQ

HQ\D %HYHUDJHV -DQXDU\WR

$SULO

7HD

0DOD\VLD 3DOP2LO 'H.HPEHUWR

6HSWHPEHU

5XEEHU

7LQ 0H[L.R 2LO -DQWR1RY

1RUZD\ 2LO -DQXDU\WR

$SULO

$OXPLQXP

)LVK

3DNLVWDQ &RWWRQ -DQXDU\WR

$SULO

5L.H

8UXJXD\ 0HDW -DQXDU\WR

$SULO

:RRO

9HQH]XHOD 2LO $SULOWR$SULO

0HWDOV


64/64

$SSHQGL[7DEOH&RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ&KDQJHVLQ&RPPRGLW\3UL.HVDQG&KDQJHVLQWKH([.KDQJH5DWH

/LPLWHG)OH[LELOLW\


6ZHGHQ 3XOS -XQWR2.W

$SSHQGL[7DEOH&RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ&KDQJHVLQ&RPPRGLW\3UL.HVDQG&KDQJHVLQWKH([.KDQJH5DWH)L[HG([.KDQJH5DWHV


$UJHQWLQD :KHDW 0DU.KWR

$SULO

)UR]HQ%HHI

&RWH',YRLUH %HYHUDJHV -DQWR$SU 1$ 1$

HQ\D %HYHUDJHV -DQXDU\WR

6HSWHPEHU

7HD

0DOD\VLD 3DOP2LO 0DU.KWR

1RYHPEHU

5XEEHU 7LQ

1LJHULD 2LO $SULOWR$SULO

9HU

*URXQGQXW2LO

*URXQGQXW

1RUZD\ 2LO 'H.HPEHUWR

1RYHPEHU

$OXPLQXP

)LVK

7KDLODQG 0DL]H -DQXDU\WR

-XQH

5XEEHU

5L.H 7LQ

9HQH]XHOD 2LO -XO\ WR

El miedo a la flotación

Documents