Eionet meeting ‘Energy and Environment EEA, Copenhagen │ Ils … · Estimated effects of RES consumption increase 2/2-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Eionet meeting ‘Energy and Environment

EEA, Copenhagen │ Ils Moorkens │ 27 May 2019

Linking renewable energy and air pollutant emissions

• Introduction

• Effects of RES increase on AP emissions

• Method and data sources

• Important drivers and effects

• Conclusions

Content

Introduction - RES report

Progress at technology level

Source: EEA RES report 2018https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/renewable-energy-in-europe-2018

Introduction - RES report – co-benefits of RES

Source: EEA RES report 2018https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/renewable-energy-in-europe-2018

Estimated effects of RES consumption increase 1/2

since 2005 on total NOx and SO2 pollutant emissions

as percentage of national total emissions (%, in 2015)

Estimated effects of RES consumption increase 2/2

since 2005 on total VOCs and PM2.5 pollutant emissions

as percentage of national total emissions (%, in 2015)

Estimated effects - important remarks

• Highest level of confidence at aggregated European level

• Effects on air pollutant emissions, not effects on air quality

• Many other factors influence the emission of air pollutants, not accounted for– E.g. replacement of old installations, increasing use of abatement

technologies, operating conditions and fuel switching

Method – similar to impact on GHG emissions

• Eurostat based method

– Step 1: amount of RES consumed• in country x and year y

– Step 2: reference emission factors for Electricity and Heating of fossil fuels• primary energy use per unit x pollutant emission factor per fuel

• for NOx, SO2, PM10, PM2,5 and VOC

– Step 3: attribution to ETS and non ETS

• Counterfactual '2005-RES shares'

But!

• Surplus emissions in case of technologies combusting renewable fuels

– Emission factors for solid, liquid, gaseous renewable fuels

– Multiplied with fuel combusted

Data source - choice

• Eurostat Shares for RES consumption

• GAINS model historic datasets for IEF - scenario WPE2014-CLE

– Publicly available

– Several substances per GAINS category

• More detail than emissions statistics (NFR)

– Negotiations 2030 targets NECD 2016

– Consultations with national experts

• Does not mean by default full endorsement

Important drivers

• Amount of RES consumed for H&C and for E

– Especially combustion of biomass

• Implied emission factors– Reference emission factors = primary energy use per unit x

implied emission factor per fuel per pollutant

– IEF for avoided fossil fuels (non combustion technologies)

– IEF for biofuels (combustion technologies)

2005 – consumption RES-H&C, ETS and non ETS

2015 – consumption RES-H&C, ETS and non ETS

Increase of 24% compared to 2005

Increase of 22% compared to 2005

IEF heat non ETS – EU28 (kt/PJ)

0,000

0,020

0,040

0,060

0,080

0,100

2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx

0,000

0,050

0,100

0,150

2005 2010 2015 2020

SO2

0,000

0,025

0,050

0,075

2005 2010 2015 2020

VOC

0,000

0,100

0,200

0,300

0,400

2005 2010 2015 2020

PM2,5

IEF heat non ETS – EU28 (kt/PJ)

0,000

0,020

0,040

0,060

0,080

0,100

2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx

0,000

0,050

0,100

0,150

2005 2010 2015 2020

SO2

0,000

0,025

0,050

0,075

2005 2010 2015 2020

VOC

0,000

0,100

0,200

0,300

0,400

2005 2010 2015 2020

PM2,5

IEF heat ETS – EU28 (kt/PJ)

0,000

0,020

0,040

0,060

0,080

0,100

2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx

0,000

0,010

0,020

0,030

0,040

0,050

2005 2010 2015 2020

SO2

0,000

0,025

0,050

0,075

2005 2010 2015 2020

VOC

0,000

0,005

0,010

0,015

0,020

0,025

2005 2010 2015 2020

PM2,5

IEF heat ETS – EU28 (kt/PJ)

0,000

0,020

0,040

0,060

0,080

0,100

2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx

0,000

0,010

0,020

0,030

0,040

0,050

2005 2010 2015 2020

SO2

0,000

0,025

0,050

0,075

2005 2010 2015 2020

VOC

0,000

0,005

0,010

0,015

0,020

0,025

2005 2010 2015 2020

PM2,5

2005 and 2015 – consumption RES-E

IEF electricity (kt/PJ) – EU28

0,000

0,050

0,100

0,150

0,200

0,250

0,300

0,350

2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx

0,000

0,100

0,200

0,300

2005 2010 2015 2020

SO2

0,000

0,025

0,050

0,075

2005 2010 2015 2020

VOC

0,000

0,005

0,010

0,015

2005 2010 2015 2020

PM2,5

IEF electricity – EU28

0,000

0,050

0,100

0,150

0,200

0,250

0,300

0,350

2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx

0,000

0,100

0,200

0,300

2005 2010 2015 2020

SO2

0,000

0,025

0,050

0,075

2005 2010 2015 2020

VOC

0,000

0,005

0,010

0,015

2005 2010 2015 2020

PM2,5

Estimated effects of RES consumption increase 1/2

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Proxy2016

Estimated effect of RES on NOx emissions - EU28 (kt)

RES-E, NOx RES-H&C, NOx All RES, NOx

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Proxy2016

Estimated effect of RES on SO2 emissions - EU28 (kt)

RES-E, SO2 RES-H&C, SO2 All RES, SO2

Estimated effects of RES consumption increase 2/2

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Proxy2016

Estimated effect of RES on VOC emissions - EU28 (kt)

RES-E, VOC RES-H&C, VOC All RES, VOC

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Proxy2016

Estimated effect of RES on PM2,5 emissions - EU28 (kt)

RES-E, PM2,5 RES-H&C, PM2,5 All RES, PM2,5

Conclusion

• Method developed to estimate impact on air pollutant emissions related to RES

– Based on Estat Shares and GAINS data

• Important drivers

– Combustion of biofuels

– IEF of renewable versus fossil fuels

Conclusion

• In case of non combustion technologies emissions decrease

• In case of (solid) biofuels combustion technologies

– emissions ↗ for NOx, PM, VOC for RES-H

– emissions ↗ for PM, VOC for RES-E

Thank you