GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT EILAT-EILOT GREEN ENERGY Benjamin Kafri, Global Head Client Relations Twitter: @benjaminkafri Eilat, 9 December 2014
GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT EILAT-EILOT GREEN ENERGY
Benjamin Kafri, Global
Head Client Relations
Twitter: @benjaminkafri
Eilat, 9 December 2014
1 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
200 EXPERTS ACROSS SIX CONTINENTS
San
Francisco
Washington DC
Sao Paulo
Cape Town Sydney
Singapore
Zurich
Munich
London
New Delhi Hong
Kong
Tokyo Beijing
Seoul
New York
North America
40
South America
5
Europe 90
Africa 30
Asia Pacific
35
2 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Europe, Middle East
& Africa
Asia Pacific Americas
PRODUCTS TO HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE FUTURE OF ENERGY
Solar Wind Other
Renewables
Advanced
Transport
Energy Smart
Technologies Gas
Carbon &
RECs Markets
3 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
$55bn
$80bn
$116bn
$167bn
$195bn $196bn
$262bn
$318bn$286bn
$254bn
46%
45%
44%
17%0.6%
34%
21%-10%
-11%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital
energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics).
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-13 ($BN)
4 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION 2004-13 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
12.1
19.4
36.4
46.047.8
39.0
54.8
75.6
58.956.0
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
North America & Caribbean
0.93.8 5.8
12.315.6
10.513.412.612.3
9.6
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Central & South America
0.5 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 1.54.5 3.5
11.010.0
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Middle East & Africa
23.834.0
44.1
68.0
79.3 82.8
110.8
123.2
97.8
57.8
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Europe
17.622.2
28.939.0
49.3
61.9
78.1
103.1108.9
120.6
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Asia & Oceania
5 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for
digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN EUROPE Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($BN)
4.4
7.9
4.15.36.1
10.9
7.48.27.8
13.8
7.8
15.9
9.5
16.714.2
24.6
13.9
22.9 22.2
19.9
12.3
27.4
22.2
17.5
22.9
25.3
29.531.0
26.9
33.5
29.2
26.3
20.8
23.2
18.3
21.6
14.9
11.812.1
11.0
12.7 13.0
8.8
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Four quarter running average
6 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Comprehensive review under way
Retroactive changes implemented (2010-13)Retroactive changes implemented (2010 -13)
Suspended
Comprehensive review under way
Suspended
EUROPEAN POLICY SUPPORT SCHEMES UNDER REVIEW, 2013
7 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri ● 12/22/2014
Note: Values as of 08 October 2014; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2011 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NEX
S&P 500
NASDAQ
NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2011 – 2014 YTD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15
8 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri ● 12/22/2014
Note: Values as of 19 November 2014; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15
NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2014 YTD
S&P 500NASDAQNEX
9 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri ● 12/22/2014
Note: Values as of 21 November 2014; Stowe and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2013 – 2014 YTD
0
50
100
150
200
Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15
NEX
S&P 500 Oil & Gas
S&P 500 Utilities
Stowe Global Coal
10 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 1976-2013 (2013 $/W)
Source: Paul Maycock, First Solar, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Prices inflation indexed to US PPI.
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
experience curve historic prices (Maycock)
Chinese c-Si module prices (BNEF) Thin-film experience curve
First Solar thin-film module cost
1976
1985
2003
2006
2012
Cost perW (2013 $)
1976
1985
2003
Q3 2013
2012
Cumulative capacity (MW)
2013
SOLAR PV MODULE COSTS HAVE
FALLEN 99% SINCE 1976
11 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
1984
1990
20002004
2013
10
50
100
500
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
MW
AVERAGE LEVELISED COST OF ONSHORE WIND 1984-2013 (EUR/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExTool
Note: Learning curve (blue) is least square regression: R2=0.88 and 14% learning rate. CAPEX, OPEX and capacity
factor evolution is included in this LCOE analysis; financing assumptions kept constant.
WIND POWER COSTS HAVE
FALLEN 26% SINCE 2009
12 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
0 100 200 300 400 500
NuclearCHP
Coal firedNatural gas CCGT
Geothermal - flash plantLandfill gas
Large hydroSmall hydro
Wind - onshoreGeothermal - binary plant
Municipal solid wasteBiomass - incinerationBiomass - gasification
Biomass - anaerobic digestionPV - c-Si tracking
PV - c-SiPV - thin film
Wind - offshoreSTEG - tower & heliostatSTEG - parabolic trough
STEG - LFRMarine - tidal
Marine - wave
Q2 2013 central H1 2014 central
8441037
US China Europe AustraliaFossil technologies:
LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY H1 2014 ($/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for
China and the US.
● Onshore
wind as
low as
$37/MWh
● PV projects
as low as
$80/MWh
13 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2030
GW Biomass &waste
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
Historic Forecast
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook 2014.
2013 Renewable energy
68% of new capacity
CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY, 2004-13, 2020 & 2030
14 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2030
GW Biomass &waste
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
Historic Forecast
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook 2014.
CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY, 2004-13, 2020 & 2030
2013 Renewable energy
68% of new capacity
15 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
CLIMATESCOPE 2014
www.global-climatescope.org
16 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Source: Climatescope
POWER CAPACITY & GROWTH, CLIMATESCOPE VS OECD (CUM. CAPACITY, GW, ANNUAL % CHANGE)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Climatescope OECD Climatescope % OECD %
17 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
INDUSTRIAL POWER PRICES 2013, CLIMATESCOPE COUNTRIES ($/MWH)
Source: Climatescope 2014
18 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for
digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
● 22 December 2014
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN ISRAEL Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($MN)
7 2
66
2 947
78
3249
8 1144
25
173
4
44 3468 70 74
55 49
150
4890
32
254
37
98
65
222
109
71
259
198
80
164
91
895
69
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Solar Wind Other
Energix Neot Hovav PV Plant &
Enlight Moshav Ohad PV Plant Energix-Renewable Energies IPO
Ashalim STEG plant
19 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
7 2
66
2 947
78
3249
8 1144
25
173
4
44 3468 70 74
55 49
150
4890
32
254
37
98
65
222
109
71
259
198
80
164
91
895
69
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Asset finance* Public markets VC/PE Small distributed capacity
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for
digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). *Asset finance includes reinvested equity. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
● 22 December 2014
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN ISRAEL BY ASSET CLASS Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($MN)
20 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Note: Total values include cumulative early and late stage venture capital investment in clean energy between Q1 2004
and Q3 2014 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
● 22 December 2014
TOP 12 CLEAN ENERGY VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT DESTINATIONS CUM. Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($BN)
7th place
21 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for
digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
● 22 December 2014
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($BN)
9.3
12.2
9.010.6
13.3
20.6
15.5
20.721.7
27.223.4
37.2
28.2
35.2
37.8
52.0
36.0
51.9
46.044.4
30.4
50.4
47.545.2
50.4
56.2
58.7
69.2
57.1
77.9
73.8
64.9
52.7
69.2
58.0
61.9
42.1
59.4
48.9
55.4 54.9
65.2
55.0
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Four quarter running average
22 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
FOSSIL FUEL AND NUCLEAR RENEWABLES
GLOBAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS 2010–30 (GW)
10687 78
6452
39
2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
Forecast
6083
107
155
196
264
2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
Marine
Solar
Wind
Biomass& waste
Geotherm.
Forecast
Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers
driving change in the energy system
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Energy Smart Technologies
Advanced Transport
Gas
Carbon and RECs
SERVICES Americas Service
Asia Pacific Service
EMEA Service
Applied Research
Events and Workshops
Benjamin Kafri
Twitter:
@BenjaminKafri
Thanks!
ANNEX
25 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Destatis
ENERGIEWENDE 2000–30 (TWH)
Fossil
Nuclear Renewables
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
26 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for
digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
● 22 December 2014
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN GERMANY Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($BN)
1.8
4.0
1.5
2.12.6
4.0
2.63.1
2.4
5.0
2.7
4.0
3.0
5.5
4.03.8
3.4
5.4
4.44.7
4.4
7.4
5.1
7.16.8
8.9
11.7
8.8
7.67.6
10.4
6.66.3
5.6
5.0
5.34.8
2.2
1.62.0
4.1
1.61.5
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Wind Solar Biofuels Other
27 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
JULY 2012 JULY 2033
GERMAN HOURLY GENERATION PROFILE (GW)
28 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
CLIMATESCOPE COUNTRY COVERAGE 2012-13 AND 2014-15
26 Latin American &
Caribbean nations
19 sub-
Saharan
Africa
nations
10 Asian countries,
including 25
states/provinces in
India & China
Nations studied for 2012-13 Climatescope Nations added for 2014-15
29 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
RETAIL POWER PRICES, AFRICA, SOLAR VS KEROSENE ($/WEEK)
Picture Credit: SolarSister Note: Illustrative figures for cost of 2 lamps plus mobile phone charging, Kenya, 2012
Kerosene
$4 per week Solar PV
$1 per week
30 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC
Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of
project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the
operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the ‘year1’ selling
price.
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14
PJM
MISO
MountainWestNEPOOL
NYISO
SPP
250 MW
US WIND PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE H1 2008–H2 2013 ($/MWH)
31 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC
Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of
project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the
operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the ‘year1’ selling price.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14
AZ
CA
CO
NM
NV
NY
TX
250 MW
US SOLAR PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE H1 2008–H2 2013 ($/MWH)
32 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: This represents fund size; actual capital invested is lower and non-public. This figure may not
include all non-public deals. Does not include all third-party financiers. Each fund contains an unknown
combination of equity, tax equity or debt (or an absence of tax equity or debt). *The $300m Clean
Power Finance fund raised on 3 May 2012 does not contain tax equity
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14
Solar City
Sunrun
SunPower
Clean PowerFinanceSunEdison
Vivint
Sungevity
CUMULATIVE FUNDS CLOSED BY SELECTED THIRD-PARTY FINANCIERS, JAN 2009-MAR 2014 ($M)
33 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
Source: EIA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
PRODUCTION
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
+ 44% since 2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
-56% since 2004
IMPORTS
US CRUDE OIL (M BARRELS / DAY)
34 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri
US CAR USE AND FUEL EFFICIENCY
Source: US DOT, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, Bloomberg
New Energy Finance
Note: Mpg figures are sales weighted average. Total vehicle miles grew at 2.7% CAGR
between 1971 and 2007
FUEL EFFICIENCY
(MILES/GALLON)
ANNUAL VEHICLE-DISTANCE TRAVELLED
(1,000 MILES PER PERSON)
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-8.9% since 2004
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
+9.7% since 2004