EFFICIENT CHARACTERIZATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN EFFICIENT CHARACTERIZATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN CONTROL STRATEGY IMPACT PREDICTIONS CONTROL STRATEGY IMPACT PREDICTIONS 8 th Annual CMAS Conference 19-21 th October, 2009 Antara Digar and Daniel S. Cohan Rice University
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EFFICIENT CHARACTERIZATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN CONTROL STRATEGY IMPACT PREDICTIONS EFFICIENT CHARACTERIZATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN CONTROL STRATEGY IMPACT PREDICTIONS.
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EFFICIENT CHARACTERIZATION OF EFFICIENT CHARACTERIZATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN CONTROL STRATEGY IMPACT UNCERTAINTY IN CONTROL STRATEGY IMPACT
PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS
8th Annual CMAS Conference19-21th October, 2009
Antara Digar and Daniel S. CohanRice University
AIR QUALITY PROBLEMSAIR QUALITY PROBLEMS Non-attainment of multiple pollutants (ozone & PM2.5) in
multiple regions across US
O3O3 PM2.5PM2.5
NOxNOx VOCVOC SOxSOx NH3NH3 PMPM
Measure: Control Emission
Issues:Issues:
Controlling Multiple Pollutants Nonlinear ChemistryHow Much to Control ?
Which Measures are most Effective?
COCO PbPb
Secondary
Pollutants
CHALLENGES IN PLANNING ATTAINMENTCHALLENGES IN PLANNING ATTAINMENT
The Attainment Limbo
Does(DVF = Base DV * RRF)
attain EPA standard?
Monitors measure pollution levels
“Base Design Value”
Model predicts relative reduction
Base
Future
“RRF” = Future/Base
YES: Attainment
demonstrated
NO: Add more controls
WHAT IF ADDITIONAL CONTROLS NEEDED TO ATTAINWHAT IF ADDITIONAL CONTROLS NEEDED TO ATTAIN
Add more controlsE
States need to target additional pollutant reduction by adding more emission controls: Therefore, in order to attain target Cextra= DVF - NAAQS
CCHECK
C Cextra
CHECK C Cextra
Yes
No
Repeat
Selection based on $$ & feasibility
ModelModelImplement Implement
Control Control StrategyStrategy
DRAWBACKS OF CURRENT PRACTICEDRAWBACKS OF CURRENT PRACTICE
CAUSES OF UNCERTAINTY IN PAQMCAUSES OF UNCERTAINTY IN PAQM
Due to imperfections in the model’s numerical
representations of atmospheric chemistry
and dynamics Emission and Reaction Rates
Boundary Conditions
Meteorology
Due to error in model input parameters
Output Pollutant Concentration (e.g. O3) or Impact (e.g.
O3)
PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODELSPHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODELS
Emissions
Chemistry
Meteorology
E or E
Range of Output Pollutant
Concentration (e.g. O3) or
Impact (e.g. O3)
EFFECT OF PARAMETRIC UNCERTAINTYEFFECT OF PARAMETRIC UNCERTAINTY