Efficiency as a means to address India’s vulnerability to electricity shortages: A case study

Efficiency as a means to address Indias vulnerability to electricity shortages: A case study

Jayant A. SathayeLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeley, CA

7 March 2006World Bank Energy Week, Washington DCWork supported by the US Agency for International Development, India1

ContentsElectricity situation in India: BackgroundEnergy efficiency goals and motivationLoad shedding -- Maharashtra Case StudyEvaluation of economic benefitsConsumer Reduced electricity billsUtility company Lower fuel costs and higher revenueGovernment Lower subsidy payments and higher tax revenueConclusions2

India Electricity Sector: BackgroundConsumption -- 400 kWh per capita (2004-05)Industrial 35.6% Residential -- 24.8%, and commercial -- 8.1%, Agricultural 22.9%Continued deficit supply:Peak power deficit 11.6% and Energy deficit 8 % in 2004-05Severe aggregate technical and commercial T&D lossAbout 50% in 2004-05Assuming 25% technical loss -- 100 billion kWh or about $6 billion a yearFive year plan targets have not been met:9th Plan (1997-02) Target -- 40,245 MW new capacity, realized addition was about 21,000 MW Private sector target: 17,589 MW, realized addition of 6,735 MW10th plan (2002-07) Target 41,010 MW, revised down to 36,956 MW, commissioned: 13,.416 MWDeficits likely to continue in the near term3

Maharashtra State Electricity Board (MSEB) Capacity Deficit Annual average (2002-03) (7836 GWh load shedding over 20 hours a day; 1376 MW average evening peak load shedding )

4

Chart1

7017.2386998.852149.97534597.133431.53291751.382

6920.2436904.296114.65344584.659431.45751711.741

6901.566885.351105.75484578.966433.24381707.182

6936.4736919.993106.51784576.071433.77671737.626

7087.3197063.581152.88494587.112433.56441818.47

7738.0077568.369441.77124636.448434.06991915.456

8507.2387820.022624.22194682.96439.80411899.869

8566.4947788.704588.75074694.386440.13971911.195

8655.5187792.351546.65754690.602439.95481994.63

8503.8897547.553479.85344678.292434.57671864.456

8176.3257286.81321.17674657.243429.68361826.248

7961.3357131.954222.50414634.207428.79181806.83

7804.7417022.586159.99594625.197426.1371774.641

7666.3866919147.0524615.039425.28631700.697

7630.2646904.07139.86034612.168425.1261692.844

7714.5266982.188154.53564611426.54111753.236

7976.6417209.362222.69594627.445427.40141884.964

8250.3827449.181389.85754658.04428.83151905.085

8871.6467942.303877.10694681.004428.94111877.059

9248.5788296.5541296.8374686.966427.91641783.934

8923.2698094.2931075.5534692.915429.77671777.685

8550.3487839.468792.48084684.119432.27941827.045

7837.3447604.885512.72474660.085431.98361903.041

7321.537200.125250.02474631.024432.95341812.647

Demand

Supply

MSEB Hydro

MSEBthermal

MSEBgas

Central Sector

Hour

Demand/Supply

MSEB dispatch

Sheet1

HourDemandSupplyLSMSEB HydroMSEBthermalMSEBgasCentral Sector

17017.2386998.85218.386149.97534597.133431.53291751.382-50.19452

26920.2436904.29615.947114.65344584.659431.45751711.741-43.48493

36901.566885.35116.209105.75484578.966433.24381707.182-42.85069

46936.4736919.99316.48106.51784576.071433.77671737.626-48.12603

57087.3197063.58123.738152.88494587.112433.56441818.47-53.93973

67738.0077568.369169.638441.77124636.448434.06991915.456-122.7041

78507.2387820.022687.216624.22194682.96439.80411899.869-154.7082

88566.4947788.704777.79588.75074694.386440.13971911.195-136.9096

98655.5187792.351863.167546.65754690.602439.95481994.63-103.7562

108503.8897547.553956.336479.85344678.292434.57671864.456-73.94521

118176.3257286.81889.515321.17674657.243429.68361826.248-36.29041

127961.3357131.954829.381222.50414634.207428.79181806.83-23.69178

137804.7417022.586782.155159.99594625.197426.1371774.641-20.95617

147666.3866919747.386147.0524615.039425.28631700.697-15.55205

157630.2646904.07726.194139.86034612.168425.1261692.844-18.96301

167714.5266982.188732.338154.53564611426.54111753.236-21.62603

177976.6417209.362767.279222.69594627.445427.40141884.964-31.40137

188250.3827449.181801.201389.85754658.04428.83151905.085-50.63425

198871.6467942.303929.343877.10694681.004428.94111877.059-60.65342

209248.5788296.554952.0241296.8374686.966427.91641783.934-82.78904

218923.2698094.293828.9761075.5534692.915429.77671777.685-99.69726

228550.3487839.468710.88792.48084684.119432.27941827.045-84.79863

237837.3447604.885232.459512.72474660.085431.98361903.041-78.51644

247321.537200.125121.405250.02474631.024432.95341812.647-54.83562

01-02dispatch

6768.4496768.44989.928764633.43837.80822420.3096-13.536991573.967

6673.3186673.31873.553424617.01437.14795418.8274-6.4657541520.858

6658.9346659.67766.161644615.73435.99726420.5918-8.7178081513.022

6700.4446700.44466.542474615.61636.09315421.6685-14.736991546.129

6836.0466841.62589.238364626.0635.56165420.9069-14.298631650.323

7308.6937382.192297.03294691.69636.47397420.2329-93.887671770.005

7740.48156.121559.60274754.91237.94521426.1836-142.62471820.159

7766.2668219.449618.28494771.26336.29041425.6384-126.36711790.066

7808.1658291.021605.09864770.11535.41918428.2904-94.150691877.008

7577.8638077.49544.13424753.86334.77808423.2959-66.558911757.151

7302.6997762.918358.17544731.39733.98082418.3096-34.057531728.422

7073.7237510.099222.89594707.42733.50137418.0219-19.493151674.027

6928.8287351.395143.48774693.12332.96164415.1315-17.95891627.808

6812.0247218.463122.27674677.00332.59726413.6466-15.747941552.603

6792.3267185.6111.82474679.76732.26849413.3315-14.950681542.236

6865.4277261.534129.35074682.65232.7589413.3014-16.717811592.907

7096.9457505.699225.64934691.7533.2413.4493-29.246571705.943

7374.5187791.417396.02194719.41735.38356415.7836-49.361641760.469

7865.3298381.942814.94524743.82536.98082416.3507-62.701371792.43

8246.9738774.6631283.314743.24137.72877414.3041-94.93151674.964

8029.4038473.3751050.1314753.0339.18082417.3589-109.84111661.71

7713.1538110.734695.73434746.74539.40822419.3178-90.345211723.521

7398.2917489.507375.10144717.89138.50685419.1699-71.098631777.962

6977.7186982.102160.45484683.9738.38082421.4575-31.830141642.726

MSEBsupply

MSEBdemand

MSEBhydro

MSEBthermal

DPC

URAN

TEC

CENTRAL

HOUR

MW

01-02 dispatch

02-03dispatch

7229.2557266.027210.02194560.8280442.7562-86.852061928.797

7135.2747167.167155.75344552.3040444.0877-80.504111902.625

7111.7677143.444145.34794542.1970445.8959-76.983561901.342

7139.5427172.501146.49314536.5260445.8849-81.515071929.123

7291.1157333.014216.53154548.1650446.2219-93.580821986.616

7828.0448093.822586.50964581.20447.9069-151.52062060.907

7899.6448858.356688.84114611.0080453.4247-166.79181979.578

7811.1438913.54559.21644617.510454.6411-147.45212032.323

7776.5379020.014488.21644611.0880451.6192-113.36162112.252

7517.2448930.288415.57264602.7210445.8575-81.33151971.762

7270.928589.731284.17814583.0880441.0575-38.523291924.074

7190.1848412.572222.11234560.9860439.5616-27.890411939.633

7116.3458258.088176.50414557.2710437.1425-23.953421921.474

7025.9768114.31171.82744553.0740436.926-15.356161848.792

7015.8138074.929167.89594544.570436.9206-22.975341843.452

7098.9488167.518179.72064539.3480439.7808-26.534251913.564

7321.7788447.584219.74254563.140441.3534-33.556162063.986

7523.8448709.348383.69314596.6630441.8795-51.906852049.701

8019.2779361.348939.26854618.1840441.5315-58.605481961.688

8346.1349722.4931310.3644630.690441.5288-70.646581892.904

8159.1849373.1621100.9754632.80442.1945-89.553421893.66

7965.7848989.962889.22744621.4930445.2411-79.252051930.57

7811.4798185.181650.3484602.2790444.7973-85.934252028.121

7422.5327660.959339.59454578.080444.4493-77.841091982.567

MSEBsupply

MSEBdemand

MSEBhydro

MSEBthermal

DPC

URAN

TEC

CENTRAL

Hour

MW

02-03 dispatch

correct data

Year 01 - 02

HourMSEBsupplyMSEBdemandMSEBhydroMSEBthermalDPCURANTECCENTRAL

16768.4496768.44989.928764633.43837.80822420.3096-13.536991573.9676678.520246678.520240497.5787%0

26673.3186673.31873.553424617.01437.14795418.8274-6.4657541520.8586599.764586599.764580493.8497%0

36658.9346659.67766.161644615.73435.99726420.5918-8.7178081513.0226593.515366592.772360.743483.7677%0.743

46700.4446700.44466.542474615.61636.09315421.6685-14.736991546.1296633.901536633.901530472.0577%0

56836.0466841.62589.238364626.0635.56165420.9069-14.298631650.3236752.386646746.807645.579491.3897%5.579

67308.6937382.192297.03294691.69636.47397420.2329-93.887671770.0057085.15917011.660173.499711.6310%73.499

77740.48156.121559.60274754.91237.94521426.1836-142.62471820.1597596.51837180.7973415.721702.2359%415.721

87766.2668219.449618.28494771.26336.29041425.6384-126.36711790.0667601.16417147.9811453.183694.0918%453.183

97808.1658291.021605.09864770.11535.41918428.2904-94.150691877.0087685.92247203.0664482.856728.9939%482.856

107577.8638077.49544.13424753.86334.77808423.2959-66.558911757.1517533.35587033.7288499.627852.79811%499.627

117302.6997762.918358.17544731.39733.98082418.3096-34.057531728.4227404.74266944.5236460.219826.81311%460.219

127073.7237510.099222.89594707.42733.50137418.0219-19.493151674.0277287.20316850.8271436.376902.47312%436.376

136928.8287351.395143.48774693.12332.96164415.1315-17.95891627.8087207.90736785.3403422.567906.69312%422.567

146812.0247218.463122.27674677.00332.59726413.6466-15.747941552.6037096.18636689.7473406.439895.84712%406.439

156792.3267185.6111.82474679.76732.26849413.3315-14.950681542.2367073.77536680.5013393.274889.32912%393.274

166865.4277261.534129.35074682.65232.7589413.3014-16.717811592.9077132.18336736.0763396.107905.98412%396.107

177096.9457505.699225.64934691.7533.2413.4493-29.246571705.9437280.04976871.2957408.754941.88513%408.754

187374.5187791.417396.02194719.41735.38356415.7836-49.361641760.4697395.39516978.4961416.899917.93112%416.899

197865.3298381.942814.94524743.82536.98082416.3507-62.701371792.437566.99687050.3838516.613979.40612%516.613

208246.9738774.6631283.314743.24137.72877414.3041-94.93151674.9647491.3536963.663527.69947.8311%527.69

218029.4038473.3751050.1314753.0339.18082417.3589-109.84111661.717423.2446979.272443.972899.78711%443.972

227713.1538110.734695.73434746.74539.40822419.3178-90.345211723.5217414.99977017.4187397.581879.22811%397.581

237398.2917489.507375.10144717.89138.50685419.1699-71.098631777.9627114.40567023.189691.216695.6749%91.2167253.299

246977.7186982.102160.45484683.9738.38082421.4575-31.830141642.7266821.64726817.26324.384678.85710%4.3842647454.135

year 02 - 03HourMSEBsupplyMSEBdemandMSEBhydroMSEBthermalDPCURANTECCENTRAL

17229.2557266.027210.02194560.8280442.7562-86.852061928.7977056.00517019.233136.77236.772

27135.2747167.167155.75344552.3040444.0877-80.504111902.6257011.41366979.520631.89331.893

37111.7677143.444145.34794542.1970445.8959-76.983561901.3426998.09616966.419131.67731.677

47139.5427172.501146.49314536.5260445.8849-81.515071929.1237026.00796993.048932.95932.959

57291.1157333.014216.53154548.1650446.2219-93.580821986.6167116.48257074.583541.89941.899

67828.0448093.822586.50964581.20447.9069-151.52062060.9077507.31247241.5344265.778265.778

77899.6448858.356688.84114611.0080453.4247-166.79181979.5788169.51497210.8029958.712958.712

87811.1438913.54559.21644617.510454.6411-147.45212032.3238354.32367251.92661102.3971102.397

97776.5379020.014488.21644611.0880451.6192-113.36162112.2528531.79767288.32061243.4771243.477

107517.2448930.288415.57264602.7210445.8575-81.33151971.7628514.71547101.67141413.0441413.044

117270.928589.731284.17814583.0880441.0575-38.523291924.0748305.55296986.74191318.8111318.811

127190.1848412.572222.11234560.9860439.5616-27.890411939.6338190.45976968.07171222.3881222.388

137116.3458258.088176.50414557.2710437.1425-23.953421921.4748081.58396939.84091141.7431141.743

147025.9768114.31171.82744553.0740436.926-15.356161848.7927942.48266854.14861088.3341088.334

157015.8138074.929167.89594544.570436.9206-22.975341843.4527907.03316847.91711059.1161059.116

167098.9488167.518179.72064539.3480439.7808-26.534251913.5647987.79746919.22741068.571068.57

177321.7788447.584219.74254563.140441.3534-33.556162063.9868227.84157102.03551125.8061125.806

187523.8448709.348383.69314596.6630441.8795-51.906852049.7018325.65497140.15091185.5041185.504

198019.2779361.348939.26854618.1840441.5315-58.605481961.6888422.07957080.00851342.0711342.071

208346.1349722.4931310.3644630.690441.5288-70.646581892.9048412.1297035.771376.3591376.359

218159.1849373.1621100.9754632.80442.1945-89.553421893.668272.1877058.2091213.9781213.978

227965.7848989.962889.22744621.4930445.2411-79.252051930.578100.73467076.55661024.1781024.178

237811.4798185.181650.3484602.2790444.7973-85.934252028.1217534.8337161.131373.702373.70219937.595

247422.5327660.959339.59454578.080444.4493-77.841091982.5677321.36457082.9375238.427238.4277277222.175

24

Sept 20 - 2004

49265492755022272-1777307773

485854947545423360779007790

48685494754642309-7776607766

48425493754282251-6767307673

48925494754882241-6772307723

490554937958332615-884409199159

497054534358582533083919509541

495251120556682500-781619819142

498947711255782674-882449819225

49854327754942703-4281559759130

49594305254412532-8378909688838

49304319254532413-6578018348655

489244142537522161176028348436

49634454754552198376565388194

496955937556521769775007750

492452332547921158760207602

494053832551025539807208072

49165326055082385979028008702

492554062560902551786488009448

497054211396651274717941572010135

50705348536457265132914009244

50425316156188268136890509030

50045391205663269544840208558

5063539455647232420799108181

MSEB Generation MSEB Thermal (MW) 2

MSEB Generation MSEB Gas (MW) 3

MSEB Generation MSEB Hydro (MW) 4

MSEB Generation MSEB Total (MW) 5

Central Sector + Purchase (MW) 6

From TPCL (MW) 7

MSEB Demand Met (MW) 8=5+6+7

Load Shed (MW) 9

MSEB Demand (Incl LS) (MW) 10=8+9

Sheet3

Time in Hrs.MSEB GenerationCentral Sector + Purchase (MW)From TPCL (MW)MSEB Demand Met (MW)Load Shed (MW)MSEB Demand (Incl LS) (MW)TEC + BSES Demand (MW)State Demand Met (MW)State Demand (Incl LS) (MW)Hourly Avg. Freq. (MW)

MSEB Thermal (MW)MSEB Gas (MW)MSEB Hydro (MW)MSEB Total (MW)

2345678=5+6+7910=8+91112=8+1113=9+1214

149265492755022272-177730777314459218921850.13

248585494754542336077900779013029092909250.22

348685494754642309-777660776612759041904150.31

448425493754282251-676730767312328905890550.21

548925494754882241-677230772312378960896049.85

6490554937958332615-884409199159129497341045350.1

7497054534358582533083919509541142898191096950.12

8495251120556682500-781619819142150996701065150.1

9498947711255782674-882449819225176110001098650.14

1049854327754942703-4281559759130203410181116450.12

1149594305254412532-8378909688838223210121107050.1

1249304319254532413-6578018348655221910021087450.12

13489244142537522161176028348436214697481058250.17

1449634454754552198376565388194210697621030050.2

1549695593755652176977500775021089858985850.26

1649245233254792115876020760220949696969650.21

17494053832551025539807208072204210111011450.09

1849165326055082385979028008702203899401074050.16

19492554062560902551786488009448200610651145449.85

20497054211396651274717941572010135212311531225850.05

2150705348536457265132914009244200911141125350.02

2250425316156188268136890509030189510801092550.16

2350045391205663269544840208558176310161032149.93

24506353945564723242079910818116979688987850.2

Average cost of electricity supply: 6.7 cents/kWh5State subsidy and cross subsidy for domestic (residential) and agricultural sectors

MSEB: Electricity Tariff and Consumption by Category (2002-03)

Type of consumptionConsumption (GWh)Percentage

Domestic (6 cents/kWh)7,41119.1

Commercial (9 cents/kWh)1,6434.2

Industrial (6.7 cents/kWh)15,59340.3

Railways1,0122.6

Public Lighting5761.5

Agriculture (< 1 cent/kWh)10,20226.3

Public Water Works1,3873.6

Miscellaneous1,0142.4

Total38,837100

StrategyReduce electricity consumption through implementation of cost-effective end-use efficiency (EE)Non-shortage hours: EE can reduce fuel and O&M costs agricultural sectorOn-shortage hours: Saved electricity can be resold to unserved net-positive revenue customers commercial and industrial sectorsEstimate potential for Electricity savingsReselling electricity to unserved customers6

Potential for Reselling Electricity: Unserved Electricity Demand byMSEB Consumer Category7Total commercial and Low and High-Tension Industrial Customers 1,890 GWh

Sheet1

MSEB load shedding allocation

MU shed

Number taken for calculation7836

Based on MSEB's calculation7836

Based on hourly load shedding data7277

Based on MSEB's correction2664.24

Rural-Urban distribution of load shedding (based on the load shedding plan on MSEB's seb-site)

Rural load shedding planUrban load shedding plan

Time BlockMWHoursMW-hrTime BlockMWMW-hr

5.00 to 5.308900.54458.30 to 11.3090032700

5.30 to 11.0020055.511027.511.30 to 14.3090032700

11.00 to 11.3020050.51002.514.30 to 17.3090032700

11.30 to 17.0020055.511027.5

17.00 to 17.3020050.51002.5

17.30 to 23.0020055.511027.5

23.00 to 23.3011150.5557.5

Total (MWH/day)360908100

Ratio of rural to urban load shedding0.820.18

Total load shedding MUUrban total1436Rural total6400

Categorywise consumption for MSEB consumers ( based on MSEB annual report 2002-2003 Annex 13)

Urban MURural MuTotal

Domestic4912.462498.147410.6

Commercial1230.75412.091642.84

L. T.2317.32875.233192.55

H. T.6480.075920.2412400.31

Agri. & Irrigation720.669481.0310201.69

Street lights312.19263.5575.69

Railway Traction665.91277.22943.13

Railway Non-Traction56.4811.9168.39

P.W.W.610.85776.281387.13

Military255.9131.43287.34

Mula Pravara631

MS TATA16

Inter State80

Total17562.620547.0738836.67

Allocation of load shedding to different categories of consumers0.3192938529

1. Exclude MIDC consumption

MIDC consumption for the year 02-03

ZoneUnits sent outLoss levelConsumption

Amravati844%80.388

Aurangabad4921%485.112

Beed622%60.822

Bhandup(U)6573%639.261

Kalyan7932%779.519

Kolhapur5592%545.584

Konkan600%59.88

Nagpur941%92.684

Nagpur (U)1463%141.182

Nasik7084%676.848

Pune1683%162.96

Total3724.24

MIDC areas are not subject to load shedding

Allocation of MIDC consumption to industry

Urban% of totalMIDC consumptionRural% of totalMIDC consumption

L. T.2317.3215%553875.236%209

H. T.6480.0742%15485920.2438%1414

Total15592.86

Consumption elegible for load shedding ( after excluding the consumption form MIDC areas) & load shedding allocation

UrbanRuralTotalLoad shedding allocation 2002-03 (GWh)

Consumption% eligibleEligible Consumption% of totalLoad shedding allocationConsumption% eligibleEligible Consumption% of totalLoad shedding allocationConsumer CategoryUrban (GWh)(%)Rural (GWh)(%)Total (GWh)(%)

Domestic4912.5100%491243%6112498.1100%249815%9547410.6Domestic59441%95415%154820%

Commercial1230.8100%123111%153412.1100%4122%1571642.8Commercial14910%1572%3064%

L. T.1763.880%141112%176666.2100%6664%2543192.6L. T. (non-MIDC)17112%2544%4255%

H. T.4932.450%246621%3074506.250%225313%86012400.3H. T. (non-MIDC)29821%86013%115915%

Agri. & Irrigation720.7100%7216%909481.0100%948157%362010201.7Agri. & Irrigation876%362057%370847%

Street lights312.2100%3123%39263.5100%2642%101575.7Street lights383%1012%1382%

Railway Traction665.90%00%0277.250%1391%53943.1Railway Traction403%531%931%

Railway Non-Traction56.5100%560%711.9100%120%568.4Railway Non-Traction70%50%110%

P.W.W.610.950%3053%38776.350%3882%1481387.1P.W.W.373%1482%1852%

Military255.950%1281%1631.450%160%6287.3Military151%60%210%

Mula Pravara00%0631.01.06314%241631.0Mula Pravara00%2414%2413%

MS TATA00%000%016.0Total1436100%6400100%7836100%

Inter State00%000%080.0

Total115431436167596400

Avg realization form various categories of consumers

For the future tariff ( MERC order 03-04)

Consumer categoryAvg realization (Rs/Unit)

LT

Domestic2.79

Commercial3.91

LT indsutry2.83

PWW (U)2.83

PWW 1.54

Agriculture1.94

Street lighting2.41

HT

HT I3.09Mumbai Pune

HT II2.9Other HT

HT III2.78PWW MP

HT IV2.78PWW other

HT V3.35railway traction

HT VI2.64res/com complex

HT VII1.41AG

Mula Pravara2.08

Sheet2

Sheet3

Consumer Benefits: Cost of Conserved Electricity < Tariff8

Chart1

1.72386726172.79

1.22712878922.79

9.01872861092.79

1.02010675333.91

1.22712878923.91

0.70341831790

0.4884849430

1.74960652030

0.58447271673

0.73059089593

0.79866936363

CCE (Rs./kWh)

Electricity Tariff (2003-04)

Cost of Conserved Electricity (CCE) (Rs./kWh)

reporttables

Cost-Benefit tables

Rural and Urban Load Shedding PlanConsumer categorywise consumptionConsumption Slabs (Units Con./month)0-3030-100100-300300 & aboveSlabsPrecentageMillion UnitsResedential Sector

Consumer CategoryConsumptionConsumption excluding MIDC consumption% eligible for load sheddingConsumption Subject to load sheddingLoad shedding allocation% of the total load sheddingTable for reportAppliance% breakup of Consumption1 to 30 units40%4877

Time BlockMWHoursMW-hrConsumer CategoryConsumption (MU)UrbanEnd-use deviceIncremental Capital costDiscount RateCCEAvg. TariffAnnual Energy SavingsTubelights14%16%12%11%14%31 to 100 units35%4309Incandescent0.0008219178204.5655799286566.6466564023949.11780705531045.15756236861133.99595516991230.38561135941334.96838832491448.44070133251571.5581609458

UrbanRuralTotalRs./Unit%Rs./kWhRs./kWhkWh/year/unitIncandescent14%12%6%12%12%101 to 300 units14%1770Refridgerator0.00015566224.751058408512.388384800323.244157342337.640540191255.887805481578.2835705574105.1132364989133.1473940485162.5458132592

Rural load shedding planDomestic491224987411Domestic49124912100%49126149.6%Redential SectorFans30%23%21%20%25%Above 300 units11%1310Geyser0.00271989969.6849508689182.0519341449342.4806280352556.4381871367829.46552791531167.17208346361575.24013291662113.23950386932676.7636233702

5.00 to 5.308900.5445Commercial12314121643Commercial12311231100%12311542.4%Total C&I639Lighting (CFL)16025%1.092.7963air-conditioner0%5%8%11%4%

5.30 to 11.0020055.511028L. T.23178753193L. T. Industry2317176480%14111762.8%Total I485Solar Water Heater1000025%4.892.79745Desert Cooler0%0%0%1%0%

11.00 to 11.3020050.51003H. T.6480592012400H. T. Industry6480493250%24663084.8%Refrigerator50025%1.032.79164Refridgerator0%21%21%16%21%Commercial sector

11.30 to 17.0020055.511028Agri. & Irrigation721948110202Agri. & Irrigation721721100%721901.4%Commercial SectorWashing m/c0%0%1%1%0%

17.00 to 17.3020050.51003Street lights312264576Street lights312312100%312390.6%Lighting (CFL)15420%0.673.91126Toaster0%0%0%1%0%

17.30 to 23.0020055.511028Railway Traction666277943Railway Traction66666650%000.0%Refrigerator50020%1.033.91Geyser5%9%20%22%10%Incandescent0.000284931526.474709787273.0119546512121.6564707198132.2318635645142.6649575997153.9212227544166.0656072297179.1681836401193.3045533293

23.00 to 23.3011150.5558Railway Non-Traction561268Railway Non-Traction5656100%000.0%Agricultural SectorTelevision14%10%7%6%11%

Total Rural (MW-hr/day)36090P.W.W.6117761387Public Water Works61161150%305380.6%New pump set300025%0.5901582Immersion Rod0%2%1%0%1%Refridgerator0.00015566221.03040836592.67736157755.00480789778.073120108311.938665246416.653624459222.266077293828.092100290829.9172282139

% of the total load shedding82%Military25631287Military25625650%128160.2%Rectification250025%0.4801898Mixcer/Juicer0%1%1%1%1%

Mula Pravara631Total Urban11487143622.4%Replacement900025%1.7301898Electric Oven2%1%1%0%1%

Urban load shedding planMS TATA16Industrial SectorAgricultural sector

8.30 to 11.3090032700Inter State80RuralMotors800018%0.7633846New IPS0.000147368110.029860879630.247777192560.6360132091101.049136164141.2232821178181.6121333401223.7857841432267.9247662312314.2192834219

11.30 to 14.3090032700Total175632054738837Domestic24982498.14100%249896215.0%Variable speed drives600018%0.7532308Pump replacement0.000147368118.347306487135.642700735551.571872999465.859124419878.270331307178.270331307178.270331307178.270331307178.2703313071

14.30 to 17.3090032700Commercial412412.09100%4121592.5%Total C&I1284Lighting (CFL)14918%0.523346IPS rectification0.000196490824.463075316147.523600980768.762497332587.8121658931104.3604417428104.3604417428104.3604417428104.3604417428104.3604417428

Total Urban (ME-hr/day)8100L. T.875666.1877476358100%6662574.0%Total I1125

% of the total load shedding18%H. T.59204506.234191084950%225386813.6%Total CostsIndustrial Sector

Agri. & Irrigation94819481.03100%9481365357.1%Energy SavingsMotors0.0000910.9107730452.33157899524.29320197956.82170604569.938205849813.658778602417.994519407123.502539119629.0555451306

Street lights264263.5100%2641021.6%Cost Benefit form Utilites PerspectiveMW savingsVSD0.0000919.47203966819.417681319429.860605053440.82567497452.338998390764.427987978377.121427045290.449538065590.4495380655

Railway Traction277277.2250%000.0%End-use deviceGrowth Rate of consumption (%)Retirement rate of old appliaces (%)Starting Penetration rate(%)Equilibrium Penetration Rate (%)Years to each Equilibrium Penetration RateEnergy Savings MULighting0.000284931522.406493698664.978831726119.5946601164175.5100651414207.9781439115218.3770511071229.2959036625240.7606988456252.7987337879

Railway Non-Traction1211.91100%000.0%End-use deviceCCEIncreased revenue form avoided MCIncreased revenue form sale of saved energyTotal increase in RevenueLoss in revenue form reduced saleRedential SectorYear of the program123456789392.13625645351036.91846252551776.22272174062257.41914600712768.06231473253307.12283667173934.48184957174707.35619849295503.2432525741

P.W.W.776776.2850%3881502.3%Rs./kWhRs./kWhRs./kWhRs/kWhRs./kWhLighting (CFL)6%100%20%80%4End useMU saved

Military3131.4350%1660.1%Redential SectorWater Heating9%10%20%50%8Resedential SectorAnnaulized expenditure each year

Mula Pravara631631100%6312433.8%OutputEmployment MultipliersLighting (CFL)0.590.193.023.212.79Refrigerator12%7%10%80%8Incandescent2496891,1551,2721,3801,4971,6241,7621,912Cost of Conserved EnergyMillion Rs Spent

Total Rural166096399MultipliersSolar Water Heater2.610.193.023.212.79Commercial SectorRefridgerator31801492423595036758551,044Resedential Sector

Total(Rural + Urban)280967835Total C&I19222.003838.93983334221.943735.3091922095Refrigerator0.490.652.212.872.79Lighting (CFL)8%100%20%80%4Geyser2667126205305429579777984

Total I16092.093363.74345565180.842.083347.6489893568Commercial SectorRefrigerator8%7%10%80%Commercial sectorIncandescent0.5946483073148.0009005915409.9624946384686.6760784517756.1597632628820.4333431401890.170177307965.83464237811047.93058698021137.0046868736

Total C3131.52475.19637769040.161.24387.6602028527Lighting (CFL)0.470.392.683.073.91Agricultural SectorIncandescent93256427464501540583629678Refridgerator0.49305361115.048782927339.23970148373.6249164067119.2248694703177.0223349524247.9600036016332.9418716504421.7389175371514.8572063616

Total LT4330.23Refrigerator0.490.652.212.873.91New pump set7%7%20%80%5Refridgerator717325277107143180192Geyser2.614898549366.9947953701175.0239029044329.2593208055534.95714668797.44439246041122.11394165321514.42871161892031.65886413862573.4283940208

Total HT11760.61Methodology tableAgricultural SectorRectification7%7%10%80%8Agricultural sector

IndexParameterFormulaNew pump set0.371.440.842.280Replacement7%7%10%50%8New IPS682054116869581,2321,5191,8182,132

Tax Revenue17921254.332446023AUsage (Hours/Yr)Rectification0.261.440.842.280Industrial SectorPump replacement124242350447531531531531531Commercial sector

% of state tax rev=0.0842099485716.7613977274BLife (Hours)Replacement0.921.440.842.280Motors5%10%10%50%8IPS rectification124242350447531531531531531

CLife (Years)B/AIndustrial SectorVariable speed drives5%10%10%50%8Industrial Sector

235792505DIncremental capital cost (Rs.)Motors0.400.582.352.923Lighting (CFL)5%100%20%80%4Motors10264775109150198258319Incandescent0.474355112444.0752027564121.5505941615202.5341790975220.1401354083237.5091920921256.2486673481276.4666872019298.2799088221321.8141936282

State revenue deficit =93711432ETransaction costs (% of capital cost)Variable speed drives0.510.582.352.923VSD104213328449575708847994994

FTotal Investment (Rs.)D*(1+E)Lighting (CFL)0.420.582.352.923Lighting79228420616730766805845887Refridgerator0.4930536113.26377629818.480433144215.852524041925.571277304737.815233214452.749673417870.526887910788.980577146694.761595094

Table 16: Potential impact of EE Measures on State Government FinancesGDiscount rateTTotal9142,2653,7964,9536,0566,9958,0359,18110,206

(2002-03)HCapital Recovary Factor (CRF)C/(1- (1+C)^(-B))Incandescent0.800.20

Subsidy ReductionTotal Subsidy Reduction and Revenue IncreaseIAnnulised capital Cost (Rs./Yr)F*HEnd-use deviceCCEValue of lost loadBenefit form avoided MCBenefit form reducing load sheddingTotal BenefitNet BenefitRefridgerator0.800.20Agricultural sector

(Rs. Crores)Tax Revenue Increase(Rs. Crores)JLoad Saving while in operation at end user (Watts)Rs./kWhRs./kWhGeyser1.000.10New IPS0.36920110125.127796660975.7797145803151.9113204595253.1582617914353.806494371454.9926277646560.6502170919671.2315481832787.2131384013

(Rs. Crores)KT & D lossesRedential SectorPump replacement0.9230027525114.9137042418223.2390227737323.0073561602412.4919344722490.2263833155490.2263833155490.2263833155490.2263833155490.2263833155

No backup30% backup60% backupNo backup30% backup60% backupLAnnual Energy Savings at the bus bar (kWh/Yr)J*B/(1-K)Lighting (CFL)0.5950.194.54.694.10IPS rectification0.256389653531.920473400562.010839659489.7242656001114.5810929089136.1739953654136.1739953654136.1739953654136.1739953654136.1739953654

Agriculture527MPeak coninsidance factorSolar Water Heater2.6150.194.54.692.08

Residential11NPeak load saving at the bus bar (Watts)J*M/(1-K)Refrigerator0.4950.653.33.953.46Commercial sectorIndustrial Sector

Total5391,7921,2547172,3311,7931,256OCost of Conserved Energy (CCE) (Rs/kWh)L/ICommercial SectorTMotors0.40493976764.052837639310.375264356619.104266064130.35582484344.223898540260.780028933280.0735879863104.5836563631129.2939087098

As a % of State Revenue Deficit (Rs. 9,371 crores)5.8%19.1%13.4%7.6%24.9%19.1%13.4%PAnnual cost of per peak kW savedI/NLighting (CFL)0.4760.394.85.194.71Incandescent0.800.20VSD0.506174709552.6868893109108.0081230874166.0954185527227.0870787913291.1283220418358.3716274548428.9770981385503.1128423564503.1128423564

Direct and Indirect Impact3,5792,5051,4324,0623,0061,949Refrigerator0.4960.653.33.953.46ALighting0.474355112437.3024203386108.177018982199.1016685574292.1898585124346.2428459259363.5549882222381.7327376333400.819374515420.8603432407

As a % of State Revenue Deficit (Rs. 9,371 crores)38.2%26.7%15.3%43.3%32.1%20.8%Agricultural SectorRefridgerator0.800.20543.38757953541341.84710977092256.89131419722985.91724344553732.02643541924433.34211438355238.03282029096194.73665472317108.7466873673

New pump set0.3741.4412.442.07

Rectification0.2641.4412.442.19

Replacement0.9241.4412.441.52Agricultural sector

Industrial SectorIrrigation pumping systems0.800.20

Motors0.4060.584.24.784.37

Variable speed drives0.5160.584.24.784.27Industrial Sector

Lighting (CFL)0.4260.584.24.784.36Motors0.500.10

VSD0.500.10

Lighting0.500.20

Potential Estimation

1. Estimating end use wise consumption for the base year

Resedential Consumption

Composition of resedential consumption: results from various studies

1. Calculations based on data gathered in SRC consultants report

Slab wise consumption: resedential

SlabsPrecentage12267

1 to 30 units40%4877

31 to 100 units35%4309

101 to 300 units14%1770

Above 300 units11%1310

Appliance0-3031-5051-170170-400400+Approximation for 30-100Approximation for 100-300Approximation for 300 & aboveEnd use wise consumptionIn % termsConsumption Slabs (Units Con./month)0-3030-100100-300300 & above

kWh/mo(%)kWh/mo(%)kWh/mo(%)kWh/mo(%)kWh/mo(%)Appliance% breakup of Consumption

Tubelights13.922.313.811.410.416.212.010.61729.514%Tubelights14%16%12%11%14%0.001390.00162285710.0011960.00106

Incandescent13.918.88.85.413.111.76.211.61442.712%Incandescent14%12%6%12%12%0.001390.00116571430.00061933330.001156

Fans29.530.120.121.519.923.021.220.23070.625%Fans30%23%21%20%25%0.002950.00229571430.00211733330.002022

air-conditioner0078.511.15.08.210.6498.84%air-conditioner0%5%8%11%4%00.00050.0008150.001058

Desert Cooler000.300.90.20.10.719.90%Desert Cooler0%0%0%1%0%00.00002142860.0000070.000072

Refridgerator10.22619.815.321.521.216.22560.321%Refridgerator0%21%21%16%21%00.00214857140.00212466670.00162

Washing m/c000.30.710.20.60.932.30%Washing m/c0%0%1%1%0%00.00002142860.00006066670.000094

Toaster000.20.50.50.10.40.520.30%Toaster0%0%0%1%0%00.00001428570.0000430.00005

Geyser5.16.19.723.521.68.720.322.01270.510%Geyser5%9%20%22%10%0.000510.00086714290.0020280.002198

Television14.38.59.95.95.49.56.85.51301.111%Television14%10%7%6%11%0.001430.000950.00068333330.00055

Immersion Rod002.1101.51.30.289.61%Immersion Rod0%2%1%0%1%00.000150.00012566670.00002

Mixcer/Juicer0.10.70.90.90.80.80.90.867.91%Mixcer/Juicer0%1%1%1%1%0.000010.00008428570.000090.000082

Electric Oven1.73.20.80.801.50.80.2163.31%Electric Oven2%1%1%0%1%0.000170.00014857140.000080.000016

Total

2. Demand survey IIEC study

All India MU 1995-96

Lamps1324126%

Refrigerators1221624%

TVs/radios508010%

Fans573611%

Mixers/grinders33867%

Geysers28806%

Air/desert coolers18093%

Electric stoves8552%

Room heaters3061%

Electric Irons6751%

Washing machines8222%

Air conditioners3181%

Others44109%

Total51734

3. Kulkarni et. Al study 1991

Share of household consumption

Lighting35%

Water Heating19%

Fans/AC18%

Refirgieration10%

Others18%

We make estimation for the year 2002-2003 based on SRC consultant report estimates

Commercial consumption

1. Calculations based on data gathered in SRC consultants report

Appliance0-100101-500500+Approximation for rangesTotal consumption4469

kWh/mo(%)kWh/mo(%)kWh/mo(%)1 to 100100 - 200200 & aboveDistribution of consumption

Tubelights25.115.18.425%15%12%811.918%

Incandescent11.49.915.811%10%13%529.112%

Mercury vapor1.13.40.61%3%2%79.72%

sodium vapor001.90%0%1%18.00%

CFL0.60.101%0%0%13.50%

Fans10.47.41.910%7%5%338.98%

Air-conditioner6.322.329.66%22%26%748.217%

Desert cooler00.30.10%0%0%5.50%

Refrigetor13.4200.413%20%10%577.413%

stove/Oven0.11.30.10%1%1%22.81%

Deep Freezer11.817.211.912%17%15%611.814%

Geyser0.1025.70%0%13%246.06%

Copier0.302.80%0%1%32.61%

computer00.50.20%1%0%9.60%

Typewriter00.100%0%0%1.50%

Other19.42.3019%2%1%422.49%

Total10099.999.4100%100%100%4469.0

Slab wise consumption

1-10045%

100 -20013%

above 200 units42%

2. Demand survey IIEC study

Lamps862551%

Fans502530%

Refrigerators10046%

Electric Irons6734%

Audios/Radios4893%

Air/desert coolers2151%

Air conditioners3702%

Others5954%

16996

3. World Bank Study

Lighting50%

Indsutrial SectorTotal Consumption18156

Motors70%12709

Variable Speed Drives14%2542

lIghting5%908

Agricultural ConsumptionTotal Consumption7757

Energy efficiency potential estimation

cYear12345678910

TechnologyBase year ConsumptionSector Growth Rate (10 year cagr)2003 - 42004-52005-20062006-2007200820092010201120122013

Resedential Sector0.011

Tubelights17298.5%1876203622092397260128223061332236043910

Incandescent14436.0%1529162117181821193120472169229924372584

Refridgerator256012.3%2875322836254070457051315762647072648157

Geyser12719.0%1385151016451793195521312323253227593008

1070030.096899972876668395919710082110561213013315146221606517659

0.00%

Commercial sector7.89%

Tubelights8127.9%87694510201100118712811382149216101737

Incandescent5297.9%57161666471777383490097110481131

Air-conditioner7477.9%8068699381012109211781271137114801596

Refridgerator5777.9%623672725782844911983106011441234

1026657.9%2876310333483612389742054536489452815698

Agricultural sector0.078930.078930.078930.078930.078930.078930.078930.078930.07893-1.000

Irrigation pumping systems77577.0%83008881950310168108801164112456133281426115259

10 year CAGR from 90-2000

Industrial Sector5%

Motors127095%13345140121471215448162211703217883187771971620702

Variable Speed Drives25425%2669280229423090324434063577375539434140

Lighting9085%953100110511103115912171277134114081479

New demand

Technology

Resedential Sector

Incandescent879297103109116123130138146

Refridgerator315353397445500561630708795892

Geyser114125136148161176192209228248

Commercial sector

Tubelights646975818794101109118127

Incandescent42454952576166717783

Air-conditioner59646974808693100108117

Refridgerator46495357626772788490

Agricultural sector

Irrigation pumping systems7757543581622665712762815872933998

Industrial Sector

Motors635667701736772811852894939986

Variable Speed Drives127

Lighting45485053555861646770

Stock of CET facing replacement(Total Consumption - Stock of EET)

Resedential Sector

Incandescent144315291297836376386409434460487

Refridgerator2560287531193334351336453724374036823644

Geyser1271138514831576166317431814187519251943

Commercial sector

T

Incandescent529571492323148155167180194210

A

Refridgerator577623653676691696692677651628

Agricultural sector


Industrial Sector

Motors12709133451381214200145051472114847148811482214551


Lighting908953896747544337243255268282

Stock of EET

Resedential Sector

T

Incandescent03248821446154516371735184019502067

Refridgerator010929055792414072022278836204528

Geyser026691302123174486068161038

Commercial sector

Tubelights0

Incandescent0124342569619668720777838905

A0

Refridgerator0194992148219306409516549

Agricultural sector


Industrial Sector

Motors0200512944149921843002395551656386


Lighting01053045608219731022107311271183

New EET

Resedential Sector

T

Incandescent0324558564388402426451478507

Refridgerator0109181267367483615766832908

Geyser026436182105131159210221

Commercial sector

T0

Incandescent0124218228167176190205222168

A0

Refridgerator019304356718710310733

Agricultural sector


Industrial Sector

Motors020031243155668581895312111220


Lighting0105199256262181146153161169

Replacement DemandLife of the equipmentReplacement Rate

Technology

Resedential Sector

T

Incandescent1100%144315291297836376386409434460487

Refridgerator157%171192208222234243248249245243

Geyser1010%127138148158166174181187193194

Commercial sector

Tubelights

Incandescent1100%529571492323148155167180194210

Air-conditioner1001%

Refridgerator157%38424445464646454342

Agricultural sector

Irrigation pumping systems157%517553522480431374327320315311

Industrial Sector

Motors1010%1271133413811420145014721485148814821455


Lighting250%454477448373272169122128134141

Total Consumption eligible for new choice

Resedential Sector

Tubelights

Incandescent152916211394940485502532564598634

Refridgerator48554560566873480487995710401135

Geyser241263284306328350373397420443

Commercial sector

Tubelights69758187941011091181270

Incandescent574619544379209221238257277210

Air-conditioner6469748086931001081170

Refridgerator889510110711311812412913442

Agricultural sector


Industrial Sector

Motors1906200220822156222322832336238224212441

Variable Speed Drives

Lighting499524498426327227182192201211

Replacement of the exsiting equipment

Equilibrium%Start rate

Ag pump sys rectification0.50.10.10.10.10.10.1

Ag pump replacement0.50.10.10.10.10.10.1

Stock replaced every year

Ag pump sys rectification830782721646561

Ag pump replacement830782721646561

Cumulative stock replaced

Ag pump sys rectification83016122333297935413541354135413541

Ag pump replacement83016122333297935413541354135413541

Variable speed drivesEquilibrium Adoptionstart rate

0.80.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1

Adoption every year0267280294309324341358376

Cumulative adoption0267547841115014751815217325492549

Next step:

Estimate the energy saving potential for each category

New Demand

% adoption of the new demandEqulibrium Ratestart rate

Resedential Sector

T

Incandescent0.800.200.400.600.800.800.800.800.800.800.80

Refridgerator0.800.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.800.800.80

Geyser1.000.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.500.500.50

Commercial sector

T

Incandescent0.800.200.400.600.800.800.800.800.800.800.80

A

Refridgerator0.800.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.800.800.80

Agricultural sector

Irrigation pumping systems0.800.200.400.600.800.800.800.800.800.800.80

Industrial Sector

Motors0.500.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.500.500.50

VSD0.500.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.500.500.50

Lighting0.500.200.400.600.800.800.800.800.800.800.80

Energy Savings MU

% energy saving potential

Resedential Sector

Incandescent0.7502436611084115812281302138014621550

Refridgerator0.3503810219532449270897612671585

Geyser1.00026691302123174486068161038

Commercial sector

Incandescent0.75093256427464501540583629678

Refridgerator0.350717325277107143180192

Agricultural sector

New IPS0.300682054116869581232151918182132

Pump replacement0.300124242350447531531531531531

IPS rectification0.300124242350447531531531531531

Industrial Sector

Motors0.050.0010.0125.6247.1874.96109.21150.10197.74258.27319.29

VSD0.390.00104.09213.38328.14448.63575.15708.00847.49993.95993.95

Lighting0.750.0078.64228.05419.73615.97729.92766.42804.74844.98887.23

Total0.00916.942261.403774.864928.996049.717023.358118.379332.7710438.50

MW savings during the peak period

kW peak/kWh

Resedential Sector

Incandescent0.0008220054489195210091070113412021274

Refridgerator0.00020820396598141195253316

Geyser0.0034879224045473911061561211428473619

Commercial sector

Incandescent0.000373494156170183197213230248

Refridgerator0.00015613581217222830

Agricultural sector

New IPS0.00144386143200257316379444



Industrial Sector

Motors0.0013691318233037

VSD0.0012253852678399116116

Lighting0.002983153225267280294309324

44211551973254931763844463256156630

Annaulized expenditure each year

Cost of Conserved EnergyMillion Rs Spent

Resedential Sector

Incandescent1.72441911401869199721172244237825212672

Refridgerator1.22747125239397604869119715551945

Geyser9.0192376221173191228604038546873649360

Commercial sector

Incandescent1.0295261436473511551595641692

Refridgerator1.23821396494131176221236

Agricultural sector

New IPS0.70348144289482674867106812791500



Industrial Sector

Motors0.5861528446488116151187

VSD0.7376156240328420517619726726

Lighting1.0280233428628745782821862905

1295325855257326927711275136261650919411

Net Benefit (without EE program)

For Consumer

Incandescent1.8645312322020215822882425257027242888

Refridgerator1.76671793445708681247171922322792

Geyser-2.81-74-194-365-596-891-1258-1703-2294-2916

Commercial sector

Incandescent2.472296321054114512361333143815521674

Refridgerator2.68184686139206287384484516

Agricultural sector

New IPS

Pump replacement

IPS rectification

Industrial Sector

Motors2.402461113180262360474619766

VSD2.25234480738100812931592190522342234

Lighting

Increased Realization for MSEB

Incandescent2.8769818983112332535243736396041974449

Refridgerator2.579826150183012641817250432524068

Geyser2.87761983736099101285174023432979

Commercial sector

Incandescent2.742557021170127213721480159717231859

Refridgerator2.57174483133197275367463

Agricultural sector

New IPS2.0313841683313891941249630750.5

Pump replacement2.032524907099051076107610760.45

IPS rectification2.032524907099051076107610760.4

6424647

Industrial Sector

Motors2.612667123196285392516674

VSD2.6127255785611711501184822122594

Lighting2.87226655120517682095220023102425

Net Societal Benefits

Incandescent3.7491024764058433645964872516454745802

Refridgerator2.8711029256092914142032280236384551

Geyser-0.93

Commercial sector

Incandescent2.902697431237134514511566168918221966

Refridgerator2.87194992149220307411518552

Agricultural sector

New IPS1.83



Industrial Sector

Motors3.4134871612563725126748801088

VSD3.263396951069146218742307276132383238

Lighting2.902286611216178521152221233224492571

Net Benefits (with EE program)190950038394102611204313816158331802019769

0%0%0%0%

0%0%0%

000

Potential Estimation

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cost-Benefit-Consumer

:

(All Costs in 2004 Constant Rs.):Consumer Perspective

Based on IGIDR HT industry survey:Table for report

Technology`CommercialNew IPSIPS rectificationIPS replacementEnergy efficientVariableIndsutrial LightingEfficiency ImprovementGood House Keeping Pratices:End-use deviceIncremental Capital costDiscount RateCCEAvg. TariffAnnual Energy Savings

CompactSolar WaterRefri-LighitingmotorsSpeedIn Arc Furnaces:Rs./Unit%Rs./kWhRs./kWhkWh/year/unit

FluorescentHeatersgeratorsImprovementDrives:Redential Sector

Usage (Hours/Yr)1,095-NA--NA-2,1901,2001,2001,2006,0006,0006,000:Lighting (CFL)16025%1.092.7963

2Life (Hours)8,000-NA--NA-8,000-NA--NA--NA--NA--NA-8000:Solar Water Heater1000025%4.892.79745Maharashtra sales tax revenue (2002-03) croresMaharashtra elec. consumption (2002-03) GWhEnd-use deviceIncremental Capital CostIncremental Electricity SavingsLifetimeDiscount Rate (Real)CCEElectricity Tariff (2003-04)Potential for Electricity SavingsPotential (2003-04)End-use deviceIncremental Capital CostIncremental Electricity SavingsLifetimeDiscount Rate (Real)CCEElectricity Tariff (2003-04)Potential for Electricity SavingsAvoided cost of supply -- short termElectricity Tariff (2003-04)Short term cost to MSEB

3Life (Years)7.310153.710101010101.3:Refrigerator50025%1.032.79164(Rs./kW)(kWh/yr/unit)(years)(%)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(GWh)(GWh)(Rs./kW)(kWh/yr/unit)(years)(%)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(GWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)

4Incremental capital cost (Rs.)231.817,0005502223,0002,50011,9398,0006,000222.20:Commercial SectorResidentialResidentialCFL (Lighting)6071.567898368945.997.3059360731251.72386726172.79865.62254498390.24679487182.792.5432051282

5Transaction costs:Lighting (CFL)15420%0.673.91126CFL (Lighting)6,07246.07.3251.722.79866Refrigerators15820.2985074627127.7515251.22712878922.79716.89327908770.83910256412.791.9508974359

(% of incremental capital cost)10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%:Refrigerator50020%1.033.91Refrigerators15,820127.815251.232.79717Solar water heater8311.1111111111580.720092915210259.01872861092.791270.53898227740.24679487182.792.5432051282

6Total Investment (Rs.)25518,7006052443,3002,75013,1338,8006,600244:Agricultural SectorSolar water heater8,311580.710259.022.791271Commercial LightingLighting5431.47345369498.553.6529680365201.02010675333.91317.46048706240.49358974363.913.4164102564

7Capital Recovary Factor (CRF)0.3110.2800.2590.4110.2390.2390.2390.1990.1990.882:New pump set300025%0.59015824,669Commercial Lighting5,43198.63.7201.023.91317Refrigerators15820.2985074627127.7515201.22712878923.91746.30364715720.493.913.42

8Annulised capital Cost (Rs./Yr)79.35,237157100.5787.1655.93,132.51,753.41,315.1215.6:Rectification250025%0.4801898Refrigerators15,820127.815201.233.91746Agriculture IPSNew unit3538.8739946381111910200.70341831790620.66666666671.85096153850-1.8509615385

9Other Added/Avoided costs(Rs./yr)0.000000000:Replacement900025%1.7301898Agriculture IPSRectification2457.55138516531342.810200.4884849430620.66666666671.85096153850-1.8509615385

10Total annulised Cost (Rs./Yr)79.35,237157100.5787.1655.93,132.51,753.41,315.1215.6:Industrial SectorNew unit3,5391,11910200.700.00621Replacement8802.21179624661790.410201.74960652030620.66666666671.85096153850-1.8509615385

11Load Saving while in operation:Motors800018%0.7633846Rectification2,4581,34310200.490.00621IndustrialMotors17600300010180.58447271673317.730.740384615432.2596153846

at user-end (Watts)422,25038.2459331,1191,49250030045:Variable speed drives600018%0.7532308Replacement8,8021,79010201.750.00621Variable Speed Drives22000180010180.73059089593495.65880.740384615432.2596153846

:Lighting (CFL)14918%0.52334618,156IndustrialLighting5431.4734536942703.6529680365180.79866936363340.4250.3432.66

12Annual Energy Savings (kWh/Yr)46.0580.7127.898.61119.01342.81790.43,0001,800270:Motors17,6003,00010180.583.00318CCE: Cost of conserved electricity includes a transaction cost0000006932.6327405685

13Average load saving (Watts)5.366.314.611.3128153204342205:Variable Speed Drives22,0001,80010180.733.00496

Peak coninsidance factor0.90.90.660.80.250.250.250.70.70.70.70.500.5Lighting5,431270.03.7180.803.00340

14Peak load saving (Watts)37.82025.038.236.023328037335021032:Cost Benefit form Utilites Perspective0.5913,48822,825CCE: Cost of conserved electricity includes a transaction cost6933

15Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE):1,1171890equal to 10% of the incremental capital cost

(Rs./kWh)1.729.021.231.020.700.491.750.580.730.800.200.86:End-use deviceCCEIncreased revenue form avoided MCIncreased revenue form sale of saved energyTotal increase in RevenueLoss in revenue form reduced sale354

16Conservation Load Factor (CLF)0.140.030.380.310.550.550.550.980.98:Rs./kWhRs./kWhRs./kWhRs/kWhRs./kWh1,471End-use deviceIncremental Capital CostIncremental Electricity SavingsLifetimeDiscount Rate (Real)CCEAvoided cost of supply -- short termElectricity Tariff (2003-04)Short term cost to MSEBLong term cost to MSEB (Rs.2.83)Long term cost to MSEB (Rs.3.26)Realized electricity revenue *Net realized electricity revenue**Potential for Energy SavingsTotal MSEB RevenueNo. of unitsProgram Cost

17Annual cost per peak kW saved:Redential Sector9371(Rs./kW)(kWh/yr/unit)(years)(%)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(GWh/year)(Rs. Crores/yr)(Millions)(Rs.Crores)

(Rs./kWbus-bar)2,0972,5864,0992,7933,3762,3458,3985,0106,2622,0003,800:Lighting (CFL)0.590.193.023.212.7915.7%Col 1.Col 2.Col 3Col 4Col 5Col 6Col 7

The Real discount rate used =25%25%25%20%20%20%20%15%15%15%12%12%:Solar Water Heater2.610.193.023.212.79Residential2.833.26

Avg. T&D losses assumed =-:Refrigerator0.490.652.212.872.79CFL (Lighting)6,07246.07.3251.720.252.792.54-0.04-0.472.871.158669918.8

Cosnumer Perspective CalculationsCommercial SectorRefrigerators15,820127.815251.230.842.791.95-0.04-0.472.571.34717965.6

Discount rate assumed25%25%20%20%20%25%25%25%18%18%Lighting (CFL)0.470.392.683.073.91Solar water heater8,311580.710259.020.252.792.54-0.04-0.472.87-6.151271-7812.2

Transaction cost30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%Refrigerator0.490.652.212.873.91Commercial Lighting5,43198.63.7201.020.493.913.421.080.652.741.72317553.2

CCE1.14.891.030.670.590.481.730.760.750.52Agricultural SectorRefrigerators15,820127.815201.230.493.913.421.080.652.871.647461235.8

Societal Perspective CalculationsNew pump set0.371.440.842.280Agriculture IPS

Discount rate assumed12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%Rectification0.261.440.842.280New unit3,5391,11910200.701.850.00-1.85-2.83-3.262.031.33621820.6166.4

Transaction cost10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%Replacement0.921.440.842.280Rectification2,4581,34310200.491.850.00-1.85-2.83-3.262.031.54621960.5115.6

CCE0.592.610.490.470.370.260.920.400.510.40Industrial SectorReplacement8,8021,79010201.751.850.00-1.85-2.83-3.262.030.28621170.3413.9

MSEB detailsMotors0.400.582.352.923Industrial

Average cost of supply2.832.832.832.832.832.832.832.832.832.83Variable speed drives0.510.582.352.923Motors17,6003,00010180.580.743.002.260.17-0.262.612.03318640.1

Average realization (tariff)2.792.792.793.910.000.000.003.003.003.00Lighting (CFL)0.420.582.352.923Variable Speed Drives22,0001,80010180.730.743.002.260.17-0.262.611.88496930.3

Marginal cost off peak (avg MC of kawas + Nasik) per delivered kWh (incl. 22% T&D loss)2.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.47Lighting5,431270.03.7180.800.343.002.660.17-0.262.611.81340621.3

Avg realization form most valued consumer (Com + Dom)3.353.353.353.353.353.353.353.353.353.35CCE: Cost of conserved electricity includes a transaction cost equal to 10% of the incremental capital cost69336695.8

Societal valueEnd-use deviceCCEValue of lost loadBenefit form avoided MCBenefit form reducing load sheddingTotal BenefitNet Benefit* -- Realized electricity revenue realized from resale of electricity to customers with electricity shortage assuming a tariff of Rs. 3 per kWH0.17575498880.1387258564

Value of lost load5556444666Rs./kWhRs./kWh0** -- Net revenue with CCE subtracted. Assumes utility program to promote energy efficiency measures.0.885440613

Redential SectorAnnual demand growth =2324.46

MSEB perspectiveLighting (CFL)0.5950.194.54.694.103.0

Increased Revenue form avoided marginal cost0.250.250.840.491.851.851.850.740.740.74Solar Water Heater2.6150.194.54.692.08

Increased Revenue form sale of saved energy3.023.022.212.680.840.840.842.352.352.35Refrigerator0.4950.653.33.953.46

Total Increase in Revenue3.263.263.053.172.692.692.693.093.093.09Commercial Sector2.872.872.56666666672.742.0252.0252.0252.612.612.612.61

Benefit form reducing load shedding4.54.53.34.81114.24.24.2Lighting (CFL)0.4760.394.85.194.710.980.370.260.920.400.510.200.86

Refrigerator0.4960.653.33.953.46Subsidy RateConsumption targeted for efficiency improvement (2002-03)

Agricultural SectorSubsidy RateConsumption targeted for efficiency improvementEstimated Subsidy AmountEfficiency Improvement potentialSubsidy Reduction Potential

% of the total energy saved during the load shedding hoursSignificant load shedding Senario ( LS > 1500MU)0.90.90.66666666670.80.250.250.250.70.70.70.7New pump set0.3741.4412.442.07(Rs./kWH)(GWh/yr)(Rs. Crores/yr)(GWh)(Rs. Crores/yr)

When LS < 1500Rectification0.2641.4412.442.19Agricultural2.837,7572,1951,863527

11pm to 7am no load shedding6Replacement0.9241.4412.441.52Residential0.047,003282,85311

8 am to 9 pm significant load shedding18Industrial SectorTotal14,7602,2234,716539

Energy saving potential % of the consumption75%100%35%75%25%30%30%5%30%30%20%Motors0.4060.584.24.784.37

Ratio of kW saved during load shedding period/ kWh saved0.0008220.0034870.0002000.0003650.0002080.0002080.0002080.0001170.000117Variable speed drives0.5160.584.24.784.27

Lighting (CFL)0.4260.584.24.784.36

Consumer perspective

Transcation costs( includes search costs, retail margins, learning costs)30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%

Discount rate25%25%25%20%25%25%25%18%18%18%18%

Cost of conserved energy0.935.601.031.440.690.481.730.600.750.200.86

Price faced by the consumers2.792.792.793.910.000.000.003.003.003.003.00

Savings per kWh saved1.86-2.811.762.47-0.69-0.48-1.732.402.252.802.14

Annual Savings128.31620.2356.4385.30.00.00.09000.05400.00.00.0

Pay - back period1.312.252.011.131.50

Increased realization for MSEB (per kWh saved)From avoided marginal cost0.170.170.570.341.281.281.280.510.510.510.51

Form increased realization2.702.702.002.400.750.750.752.102.102.102.10

Total2.872.872.572.742.032.032.032.612.612.612.61

Benefit for the society (per kWh saved)Form avoided marginal cost0.170.170.570.341.281.281.280.510.510.510.51

Reduced loss of production4.504.503.334.001.251.251.253.503.503.503.50

Total4.674.673.904.342.532.532.534.014.014.014.01

Net benefit3.74-0.932.872.901.832.050.803.413.263.813.15

Consumer perspective with energy conservation program

Transcation costs( includes search costs, retail margins, learning costs)0.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.10

Discount rate0.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.12



Savings per kWh saved2.200.182.302.93-0.37-0.26-0.922.602.492.802.14

Annual savings128.311620.21356.42385.330.000.000.009000.005400.000.000.00

Pay - back period1.9911.541.700.630.000.000.000.981.220.000.00

Increased realization for MSEB (per kWh saved)From avoided marginal costsame as above

Form increased realization

Total

Benefit for the society (per kWh saved)Form avoided marginal cost

Reduced loss of production

Total

Net benefit4.082.063.413.362.162.271.603.613.503.813.15

MSEB perspective

Transcation costs( includes search costs, retail margins, learning costs)

Discount rate

Cost of conserved energy

Net benefit for MSEB-0.51-2.53-0.72-2.151.661.771.10-0.79-0.90-0.59-1.25



Total

CFL assumptions

Incremental capital cost

For CFL

For philips

MRPWLPWSMLife

2602252608000

For Orpat

1601401198000

Incandescent

MRPWSPWSMLife

87.16.0351000

Incremental Capital Cost CalculationResedential SectorCommercial SectorIndsutrial Sector

Life of CFL in years7.33.71.3

Money Spent of Incandescent every year8.7615.54936.21

NPV of money spent$28.18$37.80$41.04

Incremental Capital Cost$231.82$222.20$218.96

peak coinsidance factor considered by various studies

Resedential lighting

Peak coinsidance is .36 in south mumbai ( which is quite affuluent)

Other areas usage is much more hence peak coinsidance is assumed to be 60 %

Prayas LCP0.6

Gadgil at all0.38For south bombay

Nandel at all0.6

SCR load shape

Commercial consumption131.439.42

Solar water heaterswith improved collectors

Present EWH efficiency0.75

Water requirement (Liters/day)100(25 liter bucket per day per person * falimy of 4)

Temp increase (degree c)15

For 250 days476kWh/SWH/year580.7580.7

For more efficient694.96kWh/SWH/year

Peak coinsidance factor0.04evening peakSant at all 1993

Maharashtra has evening peak


EWH cost3000

Solar water heater costMRPWSP (20 % retail margin)WSMIncremental Capital Cost

100 lpd20000170001445011450

Energy effcient refrigeratorsBEE reportThe bulletin on energy efficiency April 2004 Vol 4 Issue 5

BrandEnergy consumption in a daywattsNo. of hourskWH/yr

Videcon0.6Videcon costs about 300- 500 Rs more than some of the inefficient models1103328.8366.168

Allwyn0.64The main issue is energy efficiency is not mentioned and is not used as a selling point723328.8239.6736

BPL1Average

Consumer

IPSOldNewSavingsBus-bar

Substandard brands have 20 % lower effciencyKBS dealerSavingskWh/yrkWh/yrkWh/yr

They are cheaper by 3000 rs300025%2.79754476335711191435

Pipe replacementSavings

Efficient foot valve250030%2.6114476313313431722

25 % lower consumption

Replacement9000Savings

Very inefficient pumps are replaced with new pumps40%2.2384476268617902295

IPS prices

MRPWith discoutWSM

3 HP998682386590.76

5 HP1193998507879.74

3.732.7975

Official discount18%

Wholesale margin20%

Conventional IPS pump89397375

2475

DSM in HT indsutry

Energy efficient motors: still need to get a price list

Variable speed drive: cost about 6000 - 7000 Rs/kW

Energy saving potential is about 30 % on avergage

Good house keeping practices improved electric arc furnaces numbers are taken form IGIDR HT indsutry survey

Cost-Benefit-Consumer

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Rs./kW

Capacity cost (May be compared with electricity supply cost > Rs.50,000/kW)

Cost-Benefit-Society-Govt

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

CCE (Rs./kWh)

Electricity Tariff (2003-04)

Cost of Conserved Electricity (CCE) (Rs./kWh)

Multiplier analysis

:

(All Costs in 2004 Constant Rs.):Consumer Perspective

Based on IGIDR HT industry survey:Table for report

Technology`CommercialNew IPSIPS rectificationIPS replacementEnergy efficientVariableIndsutrial LightingEfficiency ImprovementGood House Keeping Pratices:End-use deviceIncremental Capital costDiscount RateCCEAvg. TariffAnnual Energy Savings

CompactSolar WaterRefri-LighitingmotorsSpeedIn Arc Furnaces:Rs./Unit%Rs./kWhRs./kWhkWh/year/unit

FluorescentHeatersgeratorsImprovementDrives:Redential Sector

Usage (Hours/Yr)1,095-NA--NA-2,1901,2001,2001,2006,0006,0006,000:Lighting (CFL)16025%1.092.7963

2Life (Hours)8,000-NA--NA-8,000-NA--NA--NA--NA--NA-8000:Solar Water Heater1000025%4.892.79745Maharashtra sales tax revenue (2002-03) croresMaharashtra elec. consumption (2002-03) GWhEnd-use deviceIncremental Capital CostIncremental Electricity SavingsLifetimeDiscount Rate (Real)CCEElectricity Tariff (2003-04)Potential for Electricity SavingsPotential (2003-04)

3Life (Years)7.310153.710101010101.3:Refrigerator50025%1.032.79164(Rs./kW)(kWh/yr/unit)(years)(%)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(GWh)(GWh)

4Incremental capital cost (Rs.)218.917,0005502163,0002,50011,9398,0006,000216.08:Commercial SectorResidential

5Transaction costs:Lighting (CFL)15420%0.673.91126CFL (Lighting)5,73346.07.3251.122.79866

(% of incremental capital cost)10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%:Refrigerator50020%1.033.91Refrigerators15,820127.815250.702.79717

6Total Investment (Rs.)24118,7006052383,3002,75013,1338,8006,600238:Agricultural SectorSolar water heater8,311580.710255.702.791271

7Capital Recovary Factor (CRF)0.2130.1770.1470.3540.1770.1770.1770.1770.1770.856:New pump set300025%0.59015824,669Commercial Lighting5,28298.63.7200.853.91317

8Annulised capital Cost (Rs./Yr)51.33,3108984.1584.0486.72,324.31,557.51,168.1203.4:Rectification250025%0.4801898Refrigerators15,820127.815200.703.91746

9Other Added/Avoided costs(Rs./yr)0.000000000:Replacement900025%1.7301898Agriculture IPS

10Total annulised Cost (Rs./Yr)51.33,3108984.1584.0486.72,324.31,557.51,168.1203.4:Industrial SectorNew unit3,5391,11910200.520.00621

11Load Saving while in operation:Motors800018%0.7633846Rectification2,4581,34310200.360.00621

at user-end (Watts)422,25038.2459331,1191,49250030045:Variable speed drives600018%0.7532308Replacement8,8021,79010201.300.00621

:Lighting (CFL)14918%0.52334618,156Industrial

12Annual Energy Savings (kWh/Yr)46.0580.7127.898.61119.01342.81790.43,0001,800270:Motors17,6003,00010180.523.00318

13Average load saving (Watts)5.366.314.611.3128153204342205:Variable Speed Drives22,0001,80010180.653.00496

Peak coninsidance factor0.90.90.660.80.250.250.250.70.70.70.70.500.5Lighting5,282270.03.7180.753.00340

14Peak load saving (Watts)37.82025.038.236.023328037335021032:Cost Benefit form Utilites Perspective0.5913,48822,825CCE: Cost of conserved electricity includes a transaction cost6933

15Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE):1,1171890equal to 10% of the incremental capital cost

(Rs./kWh)1.125.700.700.850.520.361.300.520.650.750.200.86:End-use deviceCCEIncreased revenue form avoided MCIncreased revenue form sale of saved energyTotal increase in RevenueLoss in revenue form reduced sale354

16Conservation Load Factor (CLF)0.140.030.380.310.550.550.550.980.98:Rs./kWhRs./kWhRs./kWhRs/kWhRs./kWh1,471End-use deviceIncremental Capital CostIncremental Electricity SavingsLifetimeDiscount Rate (Real)CCEAvoided cost of supply -- short termElectricity Tariff (2003-04)Short term cost to MSEBLong term cost to MSEB (Rs.2.83)Long term cost to MSEB (Rs.3.26)Realized electricity revenue *Net realized electricity revenue**Potential for Energy SavingsTotal MSEB RevenueNo. of unitsProgram Cost

17Annual cost per peak kW saved:Redential Sector9371200092127912703060.1619047619(Rs./kW)(kWh/yr/unit)(years)(%)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(GWh/year)(Rs. Crores/yr)(Millions)(Rs.Crores)

(Rs./kWbus-bar)1,3581,6342,3232,3372,5051,7406,2314,4505,5622,0003,800:Lighting (CFL)0.590.193.023.212.7915.7%21828228259974250.2248677249Col 1.Col 2.Col 3Col 4Col 5Col 6Col 7

The Real discount rate used =12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%:Solar Water Heater2.610.193.023.212.795.8%0.91666666670.93226725081.273821464411590.6132275132Residential2.833.26

Avg. T&D losses assumed =-:Refrigerator0.490.652.212.872.794062.97020810522300.9851040526937118.8%1761.98510405263523.970208105218901CFL (Lighting)5,73346.07.3251.120.252.792.54-0.04-0.472.871.7586615218.8

Cosnumer Perspective CalculationsCommercial Sector43.4%24.6%0.082803943Refrigerators15,820127.815250.700.842.791.95-0.04-0.472.571.877171345.6

Discount rate assumed25%25%20%20%20%25%25%25%18%18%Lighting (CFL)0.470.392.683.073.913005.77914567361772.389572836813.2%1233.38957283682466.7791456736Solar water heater8,311580.710255.700.252.792.54-0.04-0.472.87-2.831271-3592.2

Transaction cost30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%Refrigerator0.490.652.212.873.9132.1%18.9%7.5%704.7940416211409.5880832421Commercial Lighting5,28298.63.7200.850.493.913.421.080.652.741.89317603.2

CCE1.14.891.030.670.590.481.730.760.750.52Agricultural Sector1948.58808324211243.794041621Refrigerators15,820127.815200.700.493.913.421.080.652.872.177461625.8

Societal Perspective CalculationsNew pump set0.371.440.842.28020.8%13.3%Agriculture IPS

Discount rate assumed12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%Rectification0.261.440.842.280New unit3,5391,11910200.521.850.00-1.85-2.83-3.262.031.51621940.6166.4

Transaction cost10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%Replacement0.921.440.842.280Rectification2,4581,34310200.361.850.00-1.85-2.83-3.262.031.676211030.5115.6

CCE0.592.610.490.470.370.260.920.400.510.40Industrial SectorReplacement8,8021,79010201.301.850.00-1.85-2.83-3.262.030.73621450.3413.9

MSEB detailsMotors0.400.582.352.923Industrial

Average cost of supply2.832.832.832.832.832.832.832.832.832.83Variable speed drives0.510.582.352.923Motors17,6003,00010180.520.743.002.260.17-0.262.612.09318660.1

Average realization (tariff)2.792.792.793.910.000.000.003.003.003.00Lighting (CFL)0.420.582.352.923Variable Speed Drives22,0001,80010180.650.743.002.260.17-0.262.611.96496970.3

Marginal cost off peak (avg MC of kawas + Nasik) per delivered kWh (incl. 22% T&D loss)2.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.47Lighting5,282270.03.7180.750.343.002.660.17-0.262.611.86340631.3

Avg realization form most valued consumer (Com + Dom)3.353.353.353.353.353.353.353.353.353.35CCE: Cost of conserved electricity includes a transaction cost equal to 10% of the incremental capital cost6933618695.8

Societal valueEnd-use deviceCCEValue of lost loadBenefit form avoided MCBenefit form reducing load sheddingTotal BenefitNet Benefit* -- Realized electricity revenue realized from resale of electricity to customers with electricity shortage assuming a tariff of Rs. 3 per kWH0.17575498880.1387258564

Value of lost load5556444666Rs./kWhRs./kWh0** -- Net revenue with CCE subtracted. Assumes utility program to promote energy efficiency measures.0.885440613

Redential SectorAnnual demand growth =2324.46

MSEB perspectiveLighting (CFL)0.5950.194.54.694.103.0

Increased Revenue form avoided marginal cost0.250.250.840.491.851.851.850.740.740.74Solar Water Heater2.6150.194.54.692.08

Increased Revenue form sale of saved energy3.023.022.212.680.840.840.842.352.352.35Refrigerator0.4950.653.33.953.46

Total Increase in Revenue3.263.263.053.172.692.692.693.093.093.09Commercial Sector2.872.872.56666666672.742.0252.0252.0252.612.612.612.61

Benefit form reducing load shedding4.54.53.34.81114.24.24.2Lighting (CFL)0.4760.394.85.194.710.980.370.260.920.400.510.200.86

Refrigerator0.4960.653.33.953.46Subsidy RateConsumption targeted for efficiency improvement (2002-03)

Agricultural SectorSubsidy RateConsumption targeted for efficiency improvementEstimated Subsidy AmountEfficiency Improvement potentialSubsidy Reduction Potential

% of the total energy saved during the load shedding hoursSignificant load shedding Senario ( LS > 1500MU)0.90.90.66666666670.80.250.250.250.70.70.70.7New pump set0.3741.4412.442.07(Rs./kWH)(GWh/yr)(Rs. Crores/yr)(GWh)(Rs. Crores/yr)

When LS < 1500Rectification0.2641.4412.442.19Agricultural2.837,7572,1951,863527

11pm to 7am no load shedding6Replacement0.9241.4412.441.52Residential0.047,003282,85311

8 am to 9 pm significant load shedding18Industrial SectorTotal14,7602,2234,716539

Energy saving potential % of the consumption75%100%35%75%25%30%30%5%30%30%20%Motors0.4060.584.24.784.37

Ratio of kW saved during load shedding period/ kWh saved0.0008220.0034870.0002000.0003650.0002080.0002080.0002080.0001170.000117Variable speed drives0.5160.584.24.784.27

Lighting (CFL)0.4260.584.24.784.36

Consumer perspective

Transcation costs( includes search costs, retail margins, learning costs)30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%

Discount rate25%25%25%20%25%25%25%18%18%18%18%



Savings per kWh saved1.86-2.811.762.47-0.69-0.48-1.732.402.252.802.14

Annual Savings128.31620.2356.4385.30.00.00.09000.05400.00.00.0

Pay - back period1.312.252.011.131.50

Increased realization for MSEB (per kWh saved)From avoided marginal cost0.170.170.570.341.281.281.280.510.510.510.51

Form increased realization2.702.702.002.400.750.750.752.102.102.102.10

Total2.872.872.572.742.032.032.032.612.612.612.61

Benefit for the society (per kWh saved)Form avoided marginal cost0.170.170.570.341.281.281.280.510.510.510.51

Reduced loss of production4.504.503.334.001.251.251.253.503.503.503.50

Total4.674.673.904.342.532.532.534.014.014.014.01

Net benefit3.74-0.932.872.901.832.050.803.413.263.813.15

Consumer perspective with energy conservation program

Transcation costs( includes search costs, retail margins, learning costs)0.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.10

Discount rate0.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.12



Savings per kWh saved2.200.182.302.93-0.37-0.26-0.922.602.492.802.14

Annual savings128.311620.21356.42385.330.000.000.009000.005400.000.000.00

Pay - back period1.8811.541.700.620.000.000.000.981.220.000.00

Increased realization for MSEB (per kWh saved)From avoided marginal costsame as above

Form increased realization

Total



Total

Net benefit4.082.063.413.362.162.271.603.613.503.813.15

MSEB perspective

Transcation costs( includes search costs, retail margins, learning costs)

Discount rate

Cost of conserved energy

Net benefit for MSEB-0.51-2.53-0.72-2.151.661.771.10-0.79-0.90-0.59-1.25



Total

CFL assumptions


For CFL

For philips

MRPWLPWSMLife

2602252608000

For Orpat

1601401198000

Incandescent

MRPWSPWSMLife

87.16.0351000

Incremental Capital Cost CalculationResedential SectorCommercial SectorIndsutrial Sector

Life of CFL in years7.33.71.3

Money Spent of Incandescent every year8.7615.54936.21

NPV of money spent$41.10$43.92$42.32

Incremental Capital Cost$218.90$216.08$217.68

peak coinsidance factor considered by various studies

Resedential lighting

Peak coinsidance is .36 in south mumbai ( which is quite affuluent)

Other areas usage is much more hence peak coinsidance is assumed to be 60 %

Prayas LCP0.6

Gadgil at all0.38For south bombay

Nandel at all0.6

SCR load shape

Commercial consumption131.439.42

Solar water heaterswith improved collectors

Present EWH efficiency0.75

Water requirement (Liters/day)100(25 liter bucket per day per person * falimy of 4)

Temp increase (degree c)15

For 250 days476kWh/SWH/year580.7580.7

For more efficient694.96kWh/SWH/year

Peak coinsidance factor0.04evening peakSant at all 1993

Maharashtra has evening peak


EWH cost3000

Solar water heater costMRPWSP (20 % retail margin)WSMIncremental Capital Cost

100 lpd20000170001445011450

Energy effcient refrigeratorsBEE reportThe bulletin on energy efficiency April 2004 Vol 4 Issue 5

BrandEnergy consumption in a daywattsNo. of hourskWH/yr

Videcon0.6Videcon costs about 300- 500 Rs more than some of the inefficient models1103328.8366.168

Allwyn0.64The main issue is energy efficiency is not mentioned and is not used as a selling point723328.8239.6736

BPL1Average

Consumer

IPSOldNewSavingsBus-bar

Substandard brands have 20 % lower effciencyKBS dealerSavingskWh/yrkWh/yrkWh/yr

They are cheaper by 3000 rs300025%2.79754476335711191435

Pipe replacementSavings

Efficient foot valve250030%2.6114476313313431722

25 % lower consumption

Replacement9000Savings

Very inefficient pumps are replaced with new pumps40%2.2384476268617902295

IPS prices

MRPWith discoutWSM

3 HP998682386590.76

5 HP1193998507879.74

3.732.7975

Official discount18%

Wholesale margin20%

Conventional IPS pump89397375

2475

DSM in HT indsutry

Energy efficient motors: still need to get a price list

Variable speed drive: cost about 6000 - 7000 Rs/kW

Energy saving potential is about 30 % on avergage

Good house keeping practices improved electric arc furnaces numbers are taken form IGIDR HT indsutry survey

LSallocation

Distribution of GVA, Value of Output and Employment

Organised and UnorganisedOverallUnorganised

GVAVOEmploymentOutputIndustryGVAVOEmployment

OrganisedUnorganisedOrganisedUnorganisedOrganisedUnorganisedSectorsMultipliersMultipliersOrganisedUnorganisedOrganised+UorganizedUnorganisedOrganisedUnorganised

1rice1672972261061376987rice1.553514652140419.08875294

2wheat76832106091646092wheat1.641736271057387.3526085

3pulses2454263686092244828pulses1.686210043781913.6683463

4sugarcane3010734128032513973sugarcane1.586528783976024.90108565

5Other foodgrains3035013572612175717Other foodgrains1.324704132864817.2534203

6other crops1699173202397312325996other crops1.34271792416552157.5610482

7animal husbandry & fishery87619913533558241931animal husbandry & fishery1.54208852012719085.0236103

8Forestry194859216508312034Forestry1.19256895370240.902323227

9Coal154806215397102308Coal1.55333876158582.207586803

10Other minerals241902782613217Other minerals1.253468916476.5798696502

11Sugar*166259247187862540268986336289Sugar2.261995536285209.311220845

12Other foodgrains22115417563317224216716953269077867413Other foodgrains2.4157716869972166.38796928

13Textiles204948202045942293675013150690673031Textiles2.390386509716131711968559.817359751608435.1808559

14Textile products44946322111833045272620591168409Textile products2.33550742123028441004.426432204392957.67148371

15Wood products2435512524313629527503214063745198Wood products2.068478325668991564997.515011791536011.15908783

16Paper products913906606534610520336143551153518Paper products2.411321966489268474130.629497907369351.489086604

17Leather76663652032117826483614173652Leather2.16247414178175382156.13797016374364.261187407

18rubber49404242571574881001211450439676rubber2.36608398236457127957.69730427993702.3391154667

19plastic504988701922706930112425242194340plastic2.561349634769430561075.440121811496576.384400026

20petroleum products163828749112759434299994396038petroleum2.0827492948962932260.352314121812585.2143754169

21coal tar231514118117719672414coal tar2.434579217492642.14876176831007.5408482929

22fertilisers102690333128056928005126981395fertilisers2.317131906472732572.09066000613223.4945402735

23other chemicals101568816775831412431016629142168497439other chemicals2.38988128024160431520042.652181131182176.0359867

24Cement3652014951315633491233194877Cement2.24302887782963234.533673011210937.6359949781

25Other non-metallic mineral products31289320161150197303820386207976Other non-metallic mineral products2.11397281154296482427.916137123439360.644466898

26Iron and steel1368177189140809983561781051Iron and steel2.76255239527574158073.6067477872901.7652240005

27Non-ferrous20520900166808297188862318Non-ferrous2.74465452814430716.2449576296353.875473337

28Metal products10414011216249101728473953590353427Metal products2.5519773327257731037449.57264157900853.016739702

29Non-eletrical machinery4334701247761746077413032395430196746Non-eletrical machinery2.58557615910667061529365.82822507508120.612296526

30Electrical machinery21797434831108936610427673644113211Electrical machinery2.683204506279944501637.901134921303930.420818219

31Transport equipment37920763365128637817781788046101611Transport equipment2.423546191430661459338.247261354246096.363536078

32Miscellanoeus products12524918928078379840433744184679804Miscellanoeus products2.62310727910574461893413.366762131777861.96410193

33Construction113866026904242322579Construction2.0755578344797945.94887038

34Electircity5132071524936128134Electircity2.303513192295199.013100671

35Gas and water supply788521162289766Gas and water supply1.6218795315792.8760084558

36Railways14308330600598270Railways2.08635824204186.68551718

37Other transport114429828822751775948Other transport2.0458905613629539.65061165

38Communication598939698880288762Communication1.29900638372124.638701234

39Trade hotel and restaurants and storage268608237102854791922Trade hotel and restaurants and storage1.4955300827142233.92781423

40Banks and Insurance26647533438020549623Banks and Insurance1.384738247757485.446664808

41Ownership of dwellings1119402120065727573Ownership of dwellings1.14136802531416.630160916

42Other services166609130366643320754Other services1.8756828796214529.51060167

43Public administration827546827546764456Public administration1.00827546764456.09548873

Total202545951489728418055454927781485907075217833Industry Multiplier93611414103069499138244710266807

93.1%6.9%89.5%10.5%90.3%9.7%2.242.092.192.08

Total217443234673332553808540Commercial Multiplier1731923314145666

Total C& I Employment18828359

Total C& I Elec.Use (GWh)22825

Employment/GWh825

Employment1.9415854591109821.43873837634183.679279071

Maharashtra I-O Table 1998-993075791215305412303161.521.24

12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243Total IusePFCEGFCFRow total

ricewheatpulsessugarcaneOther foodgrainsother cropsanimal husbandry & fisheryForestryCoalOther mineralsSugarOther foodgrainsTextilesTextile productsWood productsPaper productsLeatherrubberplasticpetroleumcoal tarfertilisersother chemicalsCementOther non-metallic mineral productsIron and steelNon-ferrousMetal productsNon-eletrical machineryElectrical machineryTransport equipmentMiscellanoeus productsConstructionElectircityGas and water supplyRailwaysOther transportCommunicationTrade hotel and restaurants and storageBanks and InsuranceOwnership of dwellingsOther servicesPublic administration

Sectors

1rice193171682040002015748650002576194450318700000087803000000000002902523500419601533403098240463163

2wheat161115941002011547248130002993157457013100000076101000028000000106601303000418501454843416440487128

3pulses122608282980059711433300062349900000000001880000000000000426608289008370864161930590279475

4sugarcane0003259504783846009482238579800000000001910000000000810000010110000527967752520603218

5Other foodgrains29858017926936503000312806000000000010900000000000000032002780223732373030259676

6other crops683671601148032913061900222425449512300751240147582242922153621211168061916587284101020304224530905014469097001002907101528706114862202677328

7animal husbandry & fishery89091971295461142921084855584898000552017859873471109725569142772302611781124838725410928710120821614039440002776300125160454052964561190851437698

8Forestry0060017410836000177152093142381199964924312217213132331578206922256225187127289204284210000041550040880168221890980257319

9Coal0190017300605011047958803375501727188118140235453053519491011610271295184838411134741554721853544565166098041900307500594003685197240369243

10Other minerals006000430339430141596772345524752192847428351912076382437321021866301983000922039157263793404638154991450200420003348002297201279558001279558

11Sugar065500115000094370800000000006016000000001100000038000010950548161483710203186

12Other foodgrains322235801545318440004502041862043818133789362401300100330225014806603327000144074183223054300349204164823701997441

13Textiles563222462001189717190011645685918612859421121233762438365455815710160026524465172631470412491374102822327184924002817580650834403028403765454525310829076

14Textile products21000347502214066115473012316292226929176375246613136115203181876563176935723688981414824545159215137432709631737400050650853431492631590236196

15Wood products53167253125215189112115383473025442340111385168562000156236115180342551423185239818562225213453103231372083487564152511355196109911826016404028084211895729706429505

16Paper products34224467181934845932151172299372081497929291334794221007650643313201115334147313820398178263707983426480261856549017840121473250911700365440285760453267293490482617

17Leather000000175000020390465176323418142914900011601417201618364293747745415003170135800299303358729019062606

18rubber214011931498424350237178343157934499362552546665354655531055405112411140115423183819803771981239545932873310440237201693571539658173242926

19plastic021700333037002731366418071586756767231765128509521345034301327038936313712241102730548365312786995000137190263500506001787765621922273257269

20petroleum17327852706135921817819365314161562279337817354741471024262489399969989134911119152611670868319391163464602000895641205942091081627037142565834756718523234873090756306114092121420823551

21coal tar003000400097153282469350014334131222077661300110130848284461913148114135973262286009210063200148101227031710122873

22fertilisers171511006628201407931734796793130000231738000000003258624463000000101335380900001484005400027741400277414

23other chemicals2087431559815301432482942414486539065726187711370011858816540988616454152187311203021505934411412845579415832866571289338786455214472961858553983340408127378018347002001250226973819456802464306

24Cement00000000010000000229000628833324404416181545515139601070007000247015682600156826

25Other non-metallic mineral products00300341300117012873672112103117391091675750362011362248151681144118155845596386309213668677002182565081300245301477974614509152920

26Iron and steel00000525411020707145131817965825152032829218129513388985926321712300180681442417137769207608107983178382015012580104260043814016009190256791626598

27Non-ferrous006001739500016232284274427455308268802859938112355824286531014166863676265870825101526883904335016651100029067590021599082699700826997

28Metal products227723616517251932211370212211785078329502038636328023745433611273411067158145927412528690543081501346264545136726351732814440287234192888012222037198862370122690557048

29Non-eletrical machinery2491072135691483175519884868840393796821474912101814167422457083311155814331170356077735197394214241298635218207190523951923018338926516426463519980118280405966252875972041028457

30Electrical machinery2177120131171300319517213951124119456434610001977221962252723671632226333523971149906179045186252914774685814221352220422402514020758036301890447523397976863

31Transport equipment6127183111933704933485146263226808135311676900030101193912177114367781078341797807140345327314458869213396446051250216407122637336629675674

32Miscellanoeus products5347321226192460218311621730441231423062842967362491543391359414424361507777250374061876514297104374789869212414119484280228921319701173600276024139005231731646760

33Construction8506734694349024004664674540563831219047566336058919401180240518948135282581976334360014213631242602824852770201214125872316322168953383715145120024132181019268840337358023531742690532

34Electircity22271813193538547976511367186111914118691274991287697878201302554615531136128279330194361017920579210565661942305150092728179828385717072031909438833983934234547431813491321650722496520388850169631112429001820600

35Gas and water supply0100001

Efficiency as a means to address India’s vulnerability to electricity shortages: A case study

Documents

energy deficit

mw new capacity

mw private sector target

electricity shortages

peak power deficit

motivationload shedding

gwh load shedding

continued deficit supply