Effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystem & associated social & economic considerations in the Yakima River Basin. Alec G. Maule, Supervisory Research Physiologist USGS, WFRC, Columbia River Research Laboratory Cook, Washington
Dec 17, 2015
Effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystem & associated social & economic considerations in the
Yakima River Basin.
Alec G. Maule, Supervisory Research PhysiologistUSGS, WFRC, Columbia River Research Laboratory
Cook, Washington
Alec Maule – Project ManagerDeWayne Cecil – Chief Science Applications, Climate ChangeMark Mastin & Frank Voss (WaWSC) - Physical modelsJim Hatten & Tom Batt – Habitat criteria, GIS, DSSMatt Mesa & Jill Hardiman – BioenergeticsPat Connolly & Russ Perry – Fish pop analyses, Cohort survivalJessica Montag (Ft Collins, CO) — SociologistLynne Koontz (Ft Collins, CO) – EconomistChris Lynch, (BOR-Yakima) - Water management (RiverWare)David Graves — Tributary Water Temps
Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission
Habitat Physical Population Community
Bioenergetics
Linking models to predict CC effects: Yakima River Basin
Social & Economic analyses
Change Scenarios
Early2020-2030
Base1981 -2005
Mid20402050
WatershedModel
RiverWare
TemperatureModel
HydrodynamicModel
GISModeling
Habitat maps
Habitat DSS
Climate Change in the Yakima
Bovee et al. 2008
Mastin 2008
Bureau of Reclamation
Change Scenarios
Early2020-2030
Base1988 -2006
Mid20402050
WatershedModel
RiverWare
TemperatureModels
HydrodynamicModel
GISModeling
Habitat maps
Habitat DSS
Bioenergetics Model
Growth, Development
Migration, Reproduction
Cohort Survival Model
(Population)
Interactions(Community)
Global Climate Change Decision Support System
Social & EconomicAnalyses
Karen Jenni & Tim Nieman, DA Consultants
Habitat Physical Population Community
Bioenergetics
Decision Analysis (DA)
Social & Economic Analyses
DA Stakeholders Workshop – July 2009; 20+ attendees
Results: • Shifted species of concern -- steelhead• Added temp modeling tributaries & lower river• Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission• Developed a conceptual model of Yakima Basin
Irrigation DistrictsLocal elected officials
Fed, State & Tribal F &WFed & State Water Managers
Baseline & Future Hydrographs
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1-Jan
1-Feb
1-Mar
1-Apr
1-May
1-Jun 1-Jul
1-Aug
1-Sep
1-Oct
1-Nov
1-Dec
NA
P1
P2
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P1
P2
Gap Wapato
Baseflow
Coho salmon fry rearing
Baseline vs. Future Habitat Estimates
GapWapato
Coho Fry Habitat (hectares)
Current 2020-2029 2040-2049 Current 2020-2029 2040-2049
Flows – decreasing; Lower in Wapato,Higher in Gap
Habitat based on water velocity and depth per Bovee et al. (2008)
Sensitivity AnalysisDecrease in flows; flow higher in Gap,
lower in Wapato
Gap Wapato
Current Regulation
Current Regulation
“Flip-Flop”Water Flows
“Flip-Flop”Water Flows
Different Geomorphology
Habitat Physical Population Community
Bioenergetics
Social & Economic Analyses
1. Intro, Stakeholders’ workshop and conceptual model2. Mainstem temperature modeling3. Tributary temperature modeling4. Temperature and bioenergetics of juvenile steelhead and
Chinook salmon5. Hydrograph and available species- & life-stage-specific
habitat6. Estimating the effects of CC on the social & economic life of
the Yakama Tribe
Chapters
Where a River Takes You: Climate Change Effects on Social Values of Tribal Aquatic Systems
Jessica M Montag, Ph.D. Ft Collins Science
Center
Katie Swan, InternYakama Nation