Effect of interventions in vehicular sector on air quality

Effect of interventions in vehicular sector on air quality

TERI, New Delhi

Scope

Traffic congestion and Traffic congestion and pollution pollution

Older fleetsOlder fleets

Sprawling citiesSprawling cities

Smaller cities- even less Smaller cities- even less managedmanaged

Upcoming cities-PanjimUpcoming cities-Panjim

Different types and usage of vehiclesDifferent types and usage of vehicles

• Unregistered vehicles• Overloading• Limited maintenance

Debate

• Contribution of vehicular sector

• Which vehicles for which pollutants

• Road map for future norms

• Effect on air quality

Are the current BS norms enough to meet air quality standards ?

Do we need to continually advance them ?

What is the effect of introducing better quality fuel in India and its cities ?

10

TERI integrated modelling approach

Objective : To study the impact of improvement of fuel quality and vehicular emission norms in India on the ambient air quality, and subsequently on the human health

Sumit Sharma, Suresh Jain, C Sitalakshami, Richa Mahtta, Anju Goel, Atul Kumar, Divya Datt, Seema Kundu, Prateek Sharma , TERI, New Delhi

Vehicle-wise energy consumption and projections (2010-2030)

12

Scenario analysis

Scenario Description BAU Based on the current plans and policies of the government

without any further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 cities

ALT-I Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 ALT-II Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020 ALT-III Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V

in 2020 ALT-IV Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI

in 2020

13

Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms

Scenario DescriptionBAU Based on the current plans and policies of the government without any

further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 citiesALT-I Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015ALT-II Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020ALT-III Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V in 2020ALT-IV Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI in 2020

15

Reduction in PM2.5 conc. (ALT-IV-2030)

16

Avoided mortalities- ALT-IV scenario

17

Benefits could be larger ..

• Health impacts of only PM • NOx, CO, VOCs and O3 may additionally or

synergistically aggravate the impacts

• Agricultural impacts of Ozone and other pollutants

• Climate benefits are additional• Reduction in PM will reduce black carbon

concentrations too

18

• Aim- To assess the improvement in air quality due to interventions in transport sector

• City: Bangalore

• Air quality model – CMAQ

• Emission inventory – Source apportionment study (2x2 km²)• PM, NOx, CO, SO2, VOCs

• Meteorological fields – WRF models runs

• Boundary conditions- from National scale runs

• Period – December, 2010 (to assess worst season air quality)

City level analysisSumit Sharma, V. Ramanathan

19

Emission Inventory – Source apportionment study

• Total pollution load

• PM10 - 54.4 T/d

• NOX – 217.4 T/d

• SO2 – 14.6 T/d

PM10

Transport42%

Road Dust20%

Domestic 3%

DG Set7%

Industry14%

Hotel0%

Construction14%

NOx

Transport68%

Domestic 1%

DG Set23%

Hotel0%Industry

8%

20

Air quality modelling- Dec, 2010 (baseyear)

Widespread violation of PM2.5 standard in Bangalore

21

Model comparison

22

Future projections

• Future year 2030

• Growth assessed based on city development plans, mobility plans

• Annual growth of 3-4% assumed based on projected demands

• Domestic sector projections based on population growth • Rest other emissions assumed to be same as current

• BAU scenario• Transport sector emissions remained almost same as current

levels • Introduction of BS-IV norms negated the growth in emissions

caused by incerased number of vehicles

• ALT scenario • BS-VI introduced from 2020• Transport sector emissions reduced by 50%.

23

Future projections : Effect on air quality

• 20% reduction in PM2.5 concentrations• Many areas start meeting the standards

24

Future projections : EC also reduced . may affect the local climate

25

Conclusions

• Uniform fuel quality ‘One country, one fuel and one standard’ in India helps in reducing emissions

• Effects of advancing the norms are substantial at both National and urban scales

• A city like Bangalore, can achieve the standards with introduction of advanced norms.

26

Thanks