EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COCOA YIELDS AND EXPORT IN NIGERIA BY OMUEMU W. EFE This paper was submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Award of Postgraduate Diploma in International Trade Policy and Trade Law Awarded by Trade Policy Training Center in Africa [trapca] P.O.Box 3030 0
35
Embed
Effect of climate change on cocoa yields and export in nigeria
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COCOA YIELDS AND EXPORT IN
NIGERIA
BY
OMUEMU W. EFE
This paper was submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
Award of Postgraduate Diploma in International Trade Policy and Trade Law
Awarded by
Trade Policy Training Center in Africa
[trapca]
P.O.Box 3030
ARUSHA, TANZANIA
NOVEMBER 11TH 2012
0
ABSTRACT
The production and export of Cocoa in Nigeria has been experiencing a declining trend in recent years
and many factors have been identified by different researchers. One of these factors is the effect of
climatic factors hence; this study examines the effect of climatic variables in cocoa yields and export in
Nigeria, rainfall, temperature and precipitation were observed to have been the most important climatic
factors that affect cocoa yields and export in Nigeria.
However, a trend analysis of data used, revealed that climate change had minimal effect on cocoa yields
and export in Nigeria, this may be attributed to reform programs put in place by Nigeria
government since 1999 to revamp coco sector with the establishment of National Cocoa
Development Committee (NCDC). It was however, noted that unfavorable climatic conditions or
climate change will impact negatively on cocoa yields resulting to decrease in export; if there is drought,
excessive temperature, low rainfall and precipitation couple with reduction in farm land due to
desertification, there will be a decline in productivity resulting to a decline in export as well. For this
situation to be remedy, Nigeria’s adaption and mitigation strategies and policies must be improved upon
and implemented.
It was recommended that a holistic approach should be adopted by Government and all
stakeholders by investing in this sector through Research and Development, proper utilization of
lands in Nigeria lying fallow for cocoa production in the cocoa region or belt. Cocoa farmers
should be educated on modern trends in the cultivation of this crop and value addition to their
raw cocoa for more market access and competition. Measures should be put in place to address
the issues of the effects climate variability on cocoa yield and the decline in its export.
KEY WORD
Climate Change, Cocoa Export and Yield.
1
LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATION
BNRCC Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change
CAN Cocoa Association of Nigeria
CFAN Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria.
COGAN Cocoa Growers Association of Nigeria.
CRIN Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria
CBN Central Bank of Nigeria
FOA Food Organization
GHG Green House Gas
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
NCDC National Cocoa Development Committee
NRI National Rainfall Index
NASPA-CCN National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate
1.8. Specific Objective...............................................................................................................................8
1.9. Limitations of Study...........................................................................................................................9
3.1. Source of Data...................................................................................................................................13
The importance of cocoa to Nigeria’s economy cannot be overemphasized; cocoa is Nigeria’s
second non - oil export exchange earner followed by leather and a major source of employment
to over five million Nigerians. Cocoa is grown in 14 States in Nigeria knows as the cocoa berth.
The states are Akwa Ibom, Abia , Cross River, Edo, Delta, Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti, Ogun,Osun, Kogi,
Kwara, Eboyin and River with annual production rate of 400,000 metric tons . In 2005 cocoa’s
contribution to export revenue stood at $136.6m with Netherland, UK, Spain, France, Germany,
Italy and USA as export destination, (http://farriconsultingng.blogspot.com)
Prior independence in 1960 cocoa played an important role in Nigeria’s economic development,
generating 90% of her foreign exchange earnings and the largest employer of labor.
Proceeds generated from cocoa exports in the 1960s were used to build monumental structures in
Nigeria, especially in South West, such as the cocoa house. Most of the nation's today's leaders
were equally educated through cocoa proceeds; such was the invaluable importance of cocoa to
Nigeria's economy few decades ago, (www.cooporate –nigeria.net).
Nigeria still produces 300’000 - 350’000 tones of cocoa a year; the country exports about 96% of
its cocoa crop. In 2010, Cocoa exports was 360,000 metric tons valued at $373,855.00, this could
be attributed to good weather conditions and improved quality in stock in the growing regions
known as the cocoa berth, (http://faostat.fao.org/site).
However, the production and export of cocoa witnessed a declined in the 1980s which was
attributed to different factors by different school of thoughts; the Structural Adjustment Program
(SAP) adopted in 1980s is believed to be one of the factors,1 and climate change etc.
1 The devaluation of the naira and the abolition of agricultural marketing boards in 1986, where IMF conditions for SAP, this led to the decline in cash-crop (cocoa) output. The failure to significantly increase output was caused partly by the lack of incentives for producers to invest in crop production, ( http://www.mongabay.com/reference/country_studies/nigeria)
5
Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site
1.1. Background
The production capacity of cocoa in Nigeria has reached about 385, 000 metric tons per annum,
an increase of 215,000 metric tons from year 2000 production level. This places Nigeria as the
fourth highest cocoa producing nation in the world after Ivory Coast and Ghana, producing
360,000 metric tons valued at $378,855 in 2010 ( www.faostat.fao.org).
6
Cocoa exports in Nigeria accounted for more than 20% of the country’s foreign exchange in the
early 1970’s.Nigeria’s major export partners are Europe and the United States. The sector
contribution to employment was about two-thirds of the population.
In the 1980’s Nigeria became a major importer of cocoa and its by-products; due to the shift
from agro based economy to petroleum and the resultant effect was the decline in cocoa export,
due to rural urban migration of cocoa farmers, growers and youths in search of white collar jobs
in the oil industry. Despite the importance of cocoa in pre and post independence in Nigeria, this
sector was neglected as a result of the discovery of oil in 1956 and its subsequent production in
commercial quantity; an era in the history of Nigeria known as the oil boom of the 1970s . This
impacted negatively on cocoa farming in Nigeria and resulted to the under development and
investment in this sector prior the 1999 reforms of President Olusegun Obasanjor administration.
The failure of the marketing boards in the 1990s was disappointing and facilitated the
liberalization of the cocoa market. Nigeria became the first cocoa producer in West Africa to
liberalize this sector, (Nwachukwu, Ifeanyi, Ndubuto, 2010).
However, the liberalization of this sector in 1986 resulted in the abolition of the Nigerian Cocoa
Board, a government agency that controlled the marketing of cocoa, and the industry was
deregulated.
With assistance from the World Bank, the government was able to restored cocoa production in
the late 1980s through replanting programs and producer price supports.
In the quest to revitalize the industry; in 1999 the government established the National Cocoa
Development Committee (NCDC). The NCDC promotes cocoa production and trade in
cooperation with the various growers’ agencies operating in the industry, like the Cocoa
Association of Nigeria (CAN), the Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria (CFAN), and the
Cocoa Growers Association of Nigeria (COGAN)2.
2 The Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN) is another major stakeholder in the sector:
established in 1964 as a government parastatal, the Institute conducts research on cocoa,
distributes seedlings to farmers and trains growers in modern agricultural practices as well as in
business development skills. www.coorporate-nigeria.net
7
Also the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN); a government owned parastatal to conduct
research on cocoa, distributes improved seedlings to farmers and educate them on modern
agricultural practices as well as business development skills.
1.2. Statement of Problem
Cocoa has been one of the leading Nigeria’s agricultural export products for several years now,
but there has be a significant decline in the yields and export of cocoa in Nigeria over the years.
It is against this backdrop that a quantitative method of analysis with the aid of graph as
analytical tool was used determines the effects of climate change on the variability of cocoa
yields and export in Nigeria.
1.3. Research Hypothesis
1.4. Hypothesis
Climate change influence on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria
1.5. Significance of Study
The significance of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change on cocoa yields,
export and other factors that have led to the decline in cocoa export in Nigeria.
Recommend findings to policy makers or stakeholder on ways of increasing cocoa yields and
export in Nigeria.
1.6. Research Objective
1.7. Broad Objective
The broad objective is to determine link between climate change, cocoa yields and export in Nigeria.
1.8. Specific Objective
The following are the specific objectives of this research;
To determine the effect of climate variability or change on cocoa yields and export
8
To investigate other causes of the decline of cocoa yields and export in Nigeria.
1.9. Limitations of Study
The research methodology and findings were not without shortcomings, which includes lack of
research supervisor and time constraint to source materials.
Findings may deviate from through representation due to data sources.
9
CHAPTER 2
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
Climate change, also known as global warming has become one of man’s major challenges with
adverse effects like the disruption of seasonal cycles particularly the ecosystem, agriculture,
water level reduction, the disappearance of lake and desert encroachment, climate change is
believed to be the greatest challenges faced by man and his environment today. It’s impact are
felt globally by both developed and developing countries, it’s impact is most felt by the less
developed and developing countries because they lack the economic, socio and political
infrastructure to respond adequately to the effects of climate change mostly on agricultural
productivity.
In Nigeria, this means that some stable ecosystem such as the Sahel Savanna may become
vulnerable because warming will reinforce existing patterns of water scarcity and increasing the
risk of drought in Nigeria and indeed most countries in West Africa. As well, the country’s
aquatic ecosystem, wetlands and other habits will create overwhelming problems for an already