1 复旦国际问题研究系列工作论文 Fudan IIS Working Paper Series 原创性·高质量·影响力 Originality. Quality. Impact 2016 年第 1 期(总第 7 期) 2016 年 10 月 20 日出版 www.iis.fudan.edu.cn Issue 7 – 20 October 2016 Africa in the Maritime Silk Road: Challenges and Prospects 非洲与“海上丝绸之路”:挑战与前景 简军波 复旦大学国际问题研究院 Jian Junbo Institute of International Studies, Fudan University Abstract: In this working paper, I argue that while One Belt and One Road (OBOR) is not a global policy in which all countries would be included, Africa should have its place in the OBOR, especially in the Maritime Silk Road. According to this, theoretically, which countries of Africa and what roles they should play in OBOR is open for discussion. Firstly, at least some are inevitably China’s partners in the Maritime Silk Road initiative, considering the geographical importance of these countries for connecting Europe and the Indian Ocean. Northern and Eastern African countries are involved in the initiative as key connection points within a larger logistical system. Secondly, they are also part of infrastructural construction projects of OBOR. Thirdly, the rest of Africa except for Northern and Eastern African Dr. Jian Junbo is Associate Professor at Institute of International Studies, Fudan University. He can be reached at: [email protected]. Dr. Jian very appreciates the valuable advice from Professor ZHEN Yu at School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University. 【收稿日期】2016 年 10 月 10 日(Received on 10 October 2016);【修回日期】2016 年 10 月 15 日 (Revised on 15 October 2016)。 版权声明:复旦国际问题研究系列工作论文注重原创性,系首次公开发表。版权属于作者 本人和复旦大学国际问题研究院。如需援引和转载,需征得作者本人书面同意并注明出处。
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复旦国际问题研究系列工作论文 Fudan IIS Working Paper Series
原创性·高质量·影响力 Originality. Quality. Impact
2016年第 1 期(总第 7 期) 2016年 10月 20 日出版
www.iis.fudan.edu.cn Issue 7 – 20 October 2016
Africa in the Maritime Silk Road: Challenges and Prospects
非洲与“海上丝绸之路”:挑战与前景
简军波
复旦大学国际问题研究院
Jian Junbo
Institute of International Studies, Fudan University
Abstract: In this working paper, I argue that while One Belt and One Road (OBOR)
is not a global policy in which all countries would be included, Africa should have its
place in the OBOR, especially in the Maritime Silk Road. According to this,
theoretically, which countries of Africa and what roles they should play in OBOR is
open for discussion. Firstly, at least some are inevitably China’s partners in the
Maritime Silk Road initiative, considering the geographical importance of these
countries for connecting Europe and the Indian Ocean. Northern and Eastern African
countries are involved in the initiative as key connection points within a larger
logistical system. Secondly, they are also part of infrastructural construction projects
of OBOR. Thirdly, the rest of Africa except for Northern and Eastern African
Dr. Jian Junbo is Associate Professor at Institute of International Studies, Fudan University. He
Dr. Jian very appreciates the valuable advice from Professor ZHEN Yu at School of International
Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University.
【收稿日期】2016 年 10 月 10 日(Received on 10 October 2016);【修回日期】2016 年 10
月 15 日 (Revised on 15 October 2016)。
版权声明:复旦国际问题研究系列工作论文注重原创性,系首次公开发表。版权属于作者
本人和复旦大学国际问题研究院。如需援引和转载,需征得作者本人书面同意并注明出处。
2
countries can engage in OBOR by playing an auxiliary function in the framework of
African integration. However, there are also challenges including regional terrorism,
organized piracy, geopolitical competition in these regions, political instability and
also a degree of distrust within civil society against the initiative. Hence, firstly
anti-terrorism and anti-piracy measures have become key tasks of China and its
African partners in OBOR. Secondly, a comprehensive approach to enhance economic
cooperation is needed, especially in transportation and other infrastructural
construction areas. Thirdly, people-to-people communication and exchanges should
be encouraged by both sides for reducing African suspicion of the OBOR; and
fourthly, sophisticated skills to compete and cooperate with related powers in this
region are necessary for Beijing.
Keywords: One Belt and One Road; Africa’s roles; challenges of OBOR; prospects of
OBOR
摘要:本研究报告认为,尽管“一带一路”倡议并非要把全球都包含进来,但非
洲不应缺席,尤其不能不在“海上丝绸之路”上占有一席之地。首先,考虑到非
洲作为欧洲和印度洋桥梁的重要地理位置,有一些非洲国家应不可避免地成为中
国的合作伙伴,至少北非和东非的一些国家将成为“一带一路”上庞大的物流体
系的组成部分;其次,非洲也是一带一路实施广泛的基础设施建设项目的一部分;
第三,除红海和地中海沿岸的北非和东非之外的其他非洲国家,可以经由非洲一
体化框架参与“一带一路”的项目建设。然而,“一带一路”倡议将非洲涵括进
来也存在诸多挑战,包括地区恐怖主义和有组织犯罪的蔓延、微妙的地缘政治竞
争、社会和政治不稳定、以及一定程度在非洲民间社会中日益增加的对华不信任。
对此,我国应加强与非洲在反恐和打击海盗领域的合作;其次,应加强在经济领
域,尤其是基建领域的合作;再次,应加强双边人文交流,减少非洲国家对“一
带一路”倡议的疑虑;最后,我国应提高与在非洲的其他大国相交往的能力和技
巧,并加强与大国间的合作。
关键词:“一带一路”;非洲的角色;“一带一路”的挑战;“一带一路”的前
景
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Ⅰ. Introduction
After Chinese President Xi Jinping announced two related ambitious initiatives -
the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road - in 2013,
whether Africa is included in the initiatives or not was soon hotly discussed. In March
2015, Chinese government issued an official paper - “Vision and Actions on Jointly
Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road”, in which
Africa’s position in these two initiatives (abbreviated as One Belt and One Road or
OBOR), is still not clear. The paper states that “[the OBOR Initiative] aims to
promote the connectivity of Asian, European and African continents and their adjacent
seas, establish and strengthen partnerships among the countries along the Belt and
Road…[they] run through the continents of Asia, Europe and Africa, connecting the
vibrant East Asia economic circle at one end and developed European economic circle
at the other, and encompassing countries with huge potential for economic
development”. According to this sentence, the initiative concerns Africa. However, it
also states that “the Silk Road Economic Belt focuses on bringing together China,
Central Asia, Russia and Europe (the Baltic); linking China with the Persian Gulf and
the Mediterranean Sea through Central Asia and West Asia; and connecting China
with Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Indian Ocean. The 21st-Century Maritime
Silk Road is designed to go from China's coast to Europe through the South China Sea
and the Indian Ocean in one route, and from China's coast through the South China
Sea to the South Pacific in the other”.①
Clearly, in these sentences, compared to other continents (Asia and Europe),
Africa is absent. So in terms of this official paper, positions of Africa in the OBOR
initiative are pretty confused. Generally, it lies along the Belt and Road in geography,
yet when considering specific projects, Africa-related ones are not found. Because of
this confusion, some Chinese scholars argue that Africa’s position should be clarified
①
Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, and Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, with State Council
authorization on March 2015.
4
in the OBOR. Professor Justin Yifu Lin, an Chinese Economist and pre-Vice President
of World Bank, had proposed in 2015 that Africa should be included in the OBOR,
through which Chinese labor-intensive industries could be shifted to Africa, and based
on this, more Sino-African cooperation on infrastructural construction would be
possible. He said “OBOR is mainly focusing on infrastructural construction and
mutual communication and interconnection, supplemented by industrial transfer; with
respect to China-African cooperation, it should mainly focus on industrial transfer,
supplemented by infrastructural construction and mutual communication and
interconnection”. ①
According to him, Africa can play a significant role in OBOR
initiative.
His view is shared by some other Chinese scholars, diplomats, and African
people as well. For example, the Chairman of Egyptian African Association hopes
Africa will join the OBOR.② Phumelele Gwala, Consul-General of the Republic of
South Africa in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Macao Special
Administrative Region, also anticipated that the OBOR and the African Agenda 2063
can synchronously develop, promoting closer China-Africa cooperation, especially in
the field of infrastructure and marine economy.③
Liu Guijin, the Chinese
former-Special Representative for African Affairs had even argued in the 4th
Forum
for Chinese and African Think Tanks in September 2015 that Africa had benefited
from the OBOR, although it was not included in this initiative.④
In terms of these statements, discussions and arguments, it can be seen that
Africa’s positions and roles in OBOR should be affirmed. However, some details
should be discussed: which African countries could be pivots, which joint projects
should be planned, and which roles Africa should play? In order to specify the status
of Africa in OBOR, this paper will mainly analyze two of the most important factors –
geography and the nature of OBOR. This analytical framework will lead us to draw a
①
Justin Yifu Lin, “OBOR Needs Adding Africa”, The Paper, January 18, 2015. ②
NPC and CPPCC: Africa Included In ‘The Belt and Road’ Is A Historical Initiative, Xinhua News, March 8, 2016. http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2016-03/07/c_128780662.htm ③
“Interview with the South African Consulate General in Hong Kong and Macao: Hope ‘The
Belt and Road extended to Africa’”, The Dagong Daily, May 6, 2016. ④
Liu Chang, Mozambique’s Love on Blue and White porcelain, China Trade News, June 2, 2016.
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clear picture of Africa’s roles, advantages and limitations in OBOR.
This paper argues that Africa can play a significant role in OBOR and it should
be included in this initiative. It will analyze the roles of Africa in China-proposed
OBOR in the first section, and then analyze the challenges of OBOR in Africa in the
second section, followed by the conclusion in the last section.
Ⅱ. Africa’s roles in China’s Silk Road Initiative
Before the OBOR initiative was issued, Africa was an economic partner of China.
In former-President Hu Jintao’s administration, the China-African Cooperation Forum
was advocated by the two sides and several sessions of it had been successfully held.
Thus the deepening of Sino-African relationship in Hu’s time to some extent set a
foundation for the cooperation of the two sides in the OBOR initiative. Even during
the rule of Hu’s predecessor, then-President Jiang Zemin, Africa became a hot
destination for Chinese companies’ investment, stimulated by the “go-global” policy.
Now Africa’s roles in OBOR initiative stem from OBOR’s dynamics and aims,
and are also based on Africa’s endowments, such as resources, geographic positions,
capabilities in international society, typical needs, etc.
According to Beijing, the OBOR’s dynamic that pushes Chinese leaders to
initiate this great project is partly to boost China’s and the world economy while “the
underlying impact of the international financial crisis keeps emerging; the world
economy is recovering slowly, and global development is uneven; the international
trade and investment landscape and rules for multilateral trade and investment are
undergoing major adjustments; and countries still face big challenges to their
development”.① Namely, this ambitious initiative is mainly aimed at resuming fast
economic development at national and international levels, by “promoting orderly and
free flow of economic factors, highly efficient allocation of resources and deep
①
Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, and Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, with State Council
authorization on March 2015.
6
integration of markets; encouraging the countries along the Belt and Road to achieve
economic policy coordination and carry out broader and more in-depth regional
cooperation of higher standards”,① and so on. Apart from this economic dynamic,
there are some other targets to push the OBOR: for example, the enhancement of
regional stability and peace, multi-level cooperation and the progress of human
civilization. In the Preface of the official paper on OBOR policy, the spirit of Silk
Road is summarized as “peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual
learning and mutual benefit”.②
According to the policy paper, the OBOR is stimulated by recession in the global
economy, and aims to revitalize and develop China’s and other countries’ economies,
and enhance cooperation and coordination in other fields with other countries as to
keep a stable situation and mutual friendly relationship. As for Africa, it can play
some key roles in the OBOR if one theoretically considers the OBOR’s dynamics,
aims and envisaged projects. Africa is an inevitable part of the logistical network of
OBOR (for example, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Tunisia), since this network is the base of
both “Belt” and “Road”, if one considers the geographic context of Africa as a
connector between Asia and Europe or the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic.
Furthermore, Africa is an ideal ground for China’s enterprises to do business
regarding infrastructural construction and energy since on the one hand Africa is eager
for good roads, railways, dams and school buildings, and on the other hand, “facilities
connectivity is a priority area for implementing the Initiative” of OBOR. Additionally,
Africa can also play important role in cultural exchange (or people-to-people
communication) with China. People-to-people communication is also highlighted by
the OBOR policy paper, and Africa is not only a target of China’s soft power
transmission, but also a good partner for implementing its cultural diversity strategy,
namely, reviving national (regional) culture and reducing the global hegemony of
Western culture. Last but not least, China can more easily take international
responsibility if it invites Africa to join the OBOR, because it’s easier for China to
①
Ibid. ②
Ibid.
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provide some “public goods” (especially those endorsed by China-Africa Cooperation
Forum), such as infrastructural facilities and common security, in Africa than in other
regions, for example, Europe or in Central Asia.
Infrastructural construction and China’s industrial transfer
China has had experience with infrastructural construction in Africa since the
1970s. China helped build the TanZam Railway between Tanzania and Zambia
between October 1970 and June 1975, in which 50,000 Chinese engineers and
laborers participated. Nowadays, lots of contemporary Chinese investment and aid are
also flowing into the field of infrastructural construction in Africa. Examples of such
projects include the Light Railway in Addis Ababa in Ethiopia, the Abuja-Kaduna
railway in Nigeria, the Lobito-Luau railway in Angola, and the Nairobi- Mombasa
railway in Kenya.①
Some airports across the continent (including airports in Angola,
Comoros, Djibouti, Gabon, Kenya, Nigeria, Sudan, Tanzania, and Togo) are also
under construction by Chinese companies.
Apart from the transportation field, Chinese companies are also involved in the
African energy sector, for instance, construction of hydropower dams in Ethiopia and
Uganda, biogas development in Guinea, Sudan and Tunisia, and construction of solar
and wind power plants in Ethiopia, Morocco, and South Africa.
This indicates infrastructural construction has been significant part of
China-African economic cooperation, and more ambitious cooperation in this area is
envisaged by both sides. In January 2015, Beijing and the African Union signed a
memorandum on Pan-African transportation development. In this memorandum,
Beijing promises to help Africa build a pan-African transportation network (including
railways, highways, airports and other related construction) that will be finished
within 48 years.②
Apart from the great potential of cooperation on infrastructural construction,
Africa is also a partner of China in promoting China’s industrial upgrading. With the
①
“21st Century Maritime Silk Road Helps Development of Africa”, Xinhua News, February 13,
2015 ②
“OBOR Extended to Africa, China Will Help Africa’s ‘Century Grand Development’”, acceded
to http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20150128/13464906_0.shtml on January 28, 2015.
8
increase of wages and raw materials prices in China, labor-intensive industries face
serious financial crisis and even risk of bankruptcy. Africa, as a land that’s full of low
cost labor and resources, it is an ideal target for those labor-intensive industries. If
African countries can well regulate Chinese companies, set up reasonable economic
development strategies, and further promote judicial systems, as China did in 1980s,
Africa would greatly benefit.
Africa as part of the trans-continental logistical network
Geographically, Africa is located between Europe and Asia in the “Maritime Silk
Road”. Based on this reality, Africa is an indispensable partner in the OBOR initiative.
Not only do goods need sending to Europe from China or to China from Europe via
North Africa, but also raw materials and manufacturing products can be delivered to
China, Africa or Europe more conveniently, once Africa is included in the
trans-continental logistical network of OBOR. Obviously, Africa can utilize
deep-water ports and harbors to connect itself to the trans-continental logistic network.
With the hinterland transportation network that is under construction, more cities and
towns in Africa will be connected more easily and faster with Europe and Asia. If the
logistic network is successfully finished, a grand network for trade, personal mobility
and cultural communication among Africa, Asia and Europe will be formed.
In reality, China’s companies are involved in deep-water port construction in
some coastal cities, including Bizerte of Tunisia, Dakar of Senegal, Dar es Salaam of
Tanzania, Djibouti city, Libreville of Gabon, Maputo of Mozambique, Tema of Ghana,
Kribi of Cameroon, and so on. These ports as the extension of the Maritime Silk Road
will be key sites in the transcontinental exchange of manufactured goods and
commodities between Asian and African economies, linked by Mediterranean Sea and
the Red Sea.① Meanwhile, more African countries are competing to become a part of
this grand network. For example, the Togolese President Faure Gnassingbe had said
“Togo intends to be the anchor point in West Africa for the New Silk Road
initiative,… [my country] possesses many advantages to serve as a gateway” for West
①
“African Countries Bid for ‘anchor points’ in China’s Billion-dollar Silk Road Plan: It Could
Set off ‘Mini Battles’”, M&G Africa, May 29 2016. http://mgafrica.com/
9
Africa, including its geography.① Anyway, geographically, Africa is “becoming one
of the pillars of the Marine Silk Road project”.②
Cultural exchange
Both China and Africa are bound to encourage cultural diversity around the
world, since cultural diversity is “as necessary for humankind as biodiversity is for
nature”,③
and meanwhile, the cultures of both China and Africa are seriously
impacted and challenged by Western cultural hegemony.
For China, its traditional culture has been badly diminished by some modern
radical anti-tradition movements, including the “Cultural Revolution” in the 1960s,
and been attacked by Western culture in the era of globalization. For African
countries, due to their long history of being colonized by colonial powers from the
15th
century to 1960s and being continuously linked with these former-suzerains in
many ways, Africa’s culture now is deeply influenced and marked by European
culture, and in globalized era, it’s also deeply influenced by American culture.
In this context, considering the significance of cultural diversity in the world and
the significance of national/local culture for the survival of nationalities, Africa should
be one significant partner of China to promote bilateral cultural dialogue and bilateral
cooperation for the renaissance of both cultures and civilizations under Western global
cultural hegemony. If cultural exchange and people-to-people exchange are
cooperation priorities in the OBOR, Africa - as a continent with rich local cultures,
varied religions, languages, and ethnicities, and also as a continent that has a strong
will to address African cultural renaissance - can be an appropriate partner of China to
address global cultural diversity through improving Chinese and African cultures’
consciousness and independence by cooperation and communication.
In addition to the countries colonized by Western countries, some African
countries, i.e. Ethiopia, have resisted colonial aggression and preserved their cultural
①
Ibid. ②
“China Eyes Africa for Its Maritime Silk Road”, African Cargo News, January 22, 2015. ③
UNESCO Universal Declaration on Cultural Diversity, 2 November 2001,