EEA Support to Building the System of Forward-looking Information and Assessment (fia)

EEA Support to Buildingthe System of Forward-looking

Information and Assessment (fia)

I. Introduction and overview of FIA: The need to look ahead

“The world we have made, as a result of thinking we have done thus far, creates problems we can not solve at the same level of thinking at which we created them.” (Einstein)

“When it is urgent it is already too late” (Talleyrand-French diplomat)Preparedness

New thinking

I. Introduction and overview of FIA:What forward-looking assessments

provideForward-looking assessment can:

• Frame policies by identifying priority, warning signals and emerging issues

• reflecting on different options for the future• identify driving forces and uncertainties• Check whether and how targets can be met, their relevance• Develop robust measures and precautionary actions• Analyse cause-effect relationships• Anticipate possible surprises, discontinuities, shocks• Facilitate short and long-term thinking in a structured way

I. Introduction and overview of FIA:Gaps in environmental information systems

to be addressed

A 2007 EEA report identified the need to:• Develop more targeted well designed and sound

forward-looking assessments that integrate environment with soci0-economic issues

• Improve and further develop the forward-looking components of environmental information systems– including future perspectives routinely in environment reporting

activities and systems – adapting existing information systems to regularly capture data

on future perspectives and emerging issues

• Increase expertise and resources available to carry out forward-looking studies at different levels

Methods

Tools

Scanning

Early warning Emerging issues

Interpreting change

in the long term perspective

Scenario building Options planning-Scenario based

planning Strategy making

Acting

Participating Learning Sharing

Reporting Use

I. Introduction and overview of FIA:

Future thinking to support long term perspectives in decision making process

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I. Introduction and overview of FIA:

Relationships to system neighbours

SEIS principles in FIA

• Information should be ready accessible for end users, public authorities at all levels to enable them to asses SoE, effectiveness of policies and design new policies in timely manner

• Information should be collected ones and shared with others for many purposes

• Managed as close to source as possible

• Enable comparisons at appropriate geographical scale

• Information should be supported through common free open source standards and if possible software tools.

I. Introduction and overview of FIA: Summary of the state of development

of FIA components•Inventory and evaluation of forward looking indicators complete•Outlook indicators included in IMS•IMS to be updated / supplemented as new indicators are available

•Catalogue of scenarios completed (pending publication)•Scenario factsheets (from catalogue) to be entered into online inventory of scenarios

•Large amount of analysis on global drivers and megatrends completed, European partly •Integration report and factsheets – pending•Information to be structured and added to online FIA 2010 / early 2011

•Inventories of models completed (models and participative models)•Model factsheets included in online inventory•Inventory to be updated / added to by experts

•Numerous EIONET events and meetings completed and planned, OSCE, ENVSEC planned•Specific FIA capacity building to be developed•BLOSSOM project to report – late 2010 / early 2011