StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org November 14, 2018 Educational Attainment & Economic Prosperity
StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org
November 14, 2018
Educational Attainment &
Economic Prosperity
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Agenda
• State Goals & Trends
– Demographic Trends
– Understanding the Need and Impact of Attainment
– Reaching the Goal
• Benefits of Postsecondary Attainment
– Economic
– Societal Benefits
• Reaching the Goal
1
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STATE POSTSECONDARY
GOALS & DEMOGRAPHIC
TRENDS2
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Goals
• The Virginia Plan for Higher Education: Be the best-educated state by 2030
• 70 percent of adults with high quality credential or degree, 1.5 million awards
• What are the goals/priorities?
– Access/affordability
– Student success and completion
– Traditionally underserved populations
– Innovation and efficiency
– Workforce needs/economic development/Research
3
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48.2%
60.5%
4.0%
10.0%
2016 2030
Individuals w/ a degree
Individuals w/ a credential
70.5%52.2%
Virginia’s goal to be best-educated
state
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Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016
Overall population change is increasing about the same as
the national average, but there are differences across age,
racial/ethnic groups, and regions
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While younger aged Virginians make up the largest proportion
of total residents, seniors and older workers represent fastest
growing population
6
20.4%
9.0%
12.1%
11.9%
14.3%
14.4%
17.9%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
0 - 17
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 or above
Demographics - AgeAge group proportions, Virginia residents,
2016
-3.3%
-4.1%
0.1%
-6.7%
-5.9%
4.5%
14.1%
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
0 - 17
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 or above
Age Group Proportion Percentage Change from 2012-2016
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And Hispanic residents represent the fastest growing
demographic population
7
Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016
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While Virginia is among the top 10 States in levels
of attainment…
8
2.0%
7.0%
6.0%
3.0%
4.0%
7.0%
5.0%
4.0%
6.0%
3.0%
11.0%
9.1%
8.6%
7.0%
8.2%
10.4%
8.0%
13.1%
9.2%
7.9%
24.2%
22.3%
22.8%
25.9%
23.2%
22.9%
24.1%
25.0%
26.1%
26.0%
13.4%
12.3%
13.5%
15.3%
16.8%
13.0%
16.8%
11.9%
14.4%
19.3%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
New Hampshire
Kansas
Illinois
New Jersey
Virginia
Washington
Conneticut
Minnesota
Colorado
Massachusetts
2016 Educational Attainment of Working Age PopulationTop 10 States
Certificate Associate Bachelors Graduate/Professional
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…Within these total figures, there are stark differences in
educational attainment among different populations. Virginia’s
Black, Hispanic and Native American populations are on
average ~20 points behind the White majority population.
52.2% 51.4%
32.9% 29.8%
68.1%
32.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
2016 Educational Attainment Among Virginia Residents (25-64) by Race/Ethnicity
Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016
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Source: Lumina Foundation
There are also significant regional disparities across the state
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Sussex –12.1%
Falls Church City 84.5%
Source: Lumina Foundation http://strongernation.luminafoundation.org/report/2017/#nation
Listing by locality provided in appendix
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There are differences in the rates of working age
populations with some college, but no degree by race.
11
19%23%
35%
9%
18%22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
White Black or AfricanAmerican
American Indianand Alaska
Native
Asian Hispanic Other
Share of Virginia Adults (25-65) With Some College No Degree –By Race
Some College - No Degree
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BENEFITS OF
POSTSECONDARY
ATTAINMENT12
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Economic Impact
• Educational attainment data are a key component to
many state rankings (Best State for Business, Best State
to Live and Raise a Family)
• A one point increase in the percentage of postsecondary
educated people lifts their wages 1.5%, and the earning
of other citizens by 1.1%
• A one point increase in the percentage of people with
post-secondary degrees and credentials increases
overall economic growth over ten years by one–half
percentage point
13
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Individuals with postsecondary credentials typically
earn higher income and are more likely to be
employed
14
Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016
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Attainment Impacts Income
15.1% to 20%
20.1% to 25%
25.1% to 30%
30.1% to 35%
35% or higher
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND PERSONAL INCOME, BY VIRGINIA
REGION, 2010-2014
Percentage of Population with a Bachelor’s
Degree or Better
11.1% to 15%
1
5
Southwest$32,561 Southside
$32,160
Central$48,044
West Central$37,808
Valley$38,056
Northern$65,296
Hampton Roads
$44,790
Prepared by the Council on Virginia’s Future, 2017,
Using the nine cultural regions designated for its
work.
Eastern$40,781
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Societal Benefits
Notes: Public Assistance = any public assistance in past 22 months Supplementary Security Income = Social Security for those with disabilities preventing them from working, and their dependents in past 22 months Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016
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Benefits to the Commonwealth
Source: It’s Not Just the Money, Lumina Foundation
https://www.luminafoundation.org/resources/its-not-just-the-money
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Benefit to Individuals & Communities
79% more likely to volunteer
Individuals with an associate degree or higher are…..
30% more likely to vote in an election
38% more likely to have health benefits
…than individuals with a high school diplomaSource: It’s Not Just the Money, Lumina Foundation https://www.luminafoundation.org/resources/its-not-just-the-money
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REACHING THE GOAL
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By 2020, 67% of jobs in Virginia will require
postsecondary education
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
H.S. or less
Some College, associate or credential
Bachelor's Degree
Master's Degree
Job Growth & Education Requirements in Virginia by 2020
Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, Projections of Jobs through 2020, https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/recovery-job-growth-and-education-requirements-through-2020/
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Source: Lumina Foundation http://strongernation.luminafoundation.org/report/2017/#nation
Note: Certificate and credential data based on estimates developed by Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce
• Virginia’s educational attainment rate ranks 6th in the nation for working-aged adults
Virginia Compared to the Nation and Other States
• However, Virginia’s educational attainment rate ranks 11th for its younger population (ages 25 – 34)
10
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70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
80%
Massachusetts Maryland
Educational Attainment (Bachelor’s and Above) of Virginia and Key Competitors, 2015
Ages 25 to 34 Ages 25 to 64
6
Younger Cohort Falling Behind Global Competition:
Where We Are Now
Korea Canada Japan UK France US
SOURCE: Country Data - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a
Glance, 2016/ State Data – SCHEV staff analysis of US Census and Lumina foundation data
NOTE: State data represents 2014 while country data shows 2015 data.
Virginia
Prepared by the Council on Virginia’s Future, 2017
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23
Source: American Community Survey, 2015 1-year Estimates, B15001.
Educational attainment rates vary by age.
35-44 year olds have the highest percentage of postsecondary degrees.
This could shift in the coming years as more individuals ages 25-34 earn a degree.
14%18% 16%
26%24%
21%
8%8%
8%
23% 19%19%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
25-34 35-44 44-64
Graduate or professional degree
Bachelor’s
Associate
Some college
Virginia’s Educational Attainment Rates by Age and Type
Virginia’s Educational Attainment by Age Group
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Number of High School Graduates is Relatively Flat
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Virginia Public High School* Graduations - by Race/EthnicityAcademic Year 2001 - 2032
HispanicAlone, or Any Race
White Black American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander (Combined)
AY32
85,656
C
AY18
84,962
AY25
90,659
AY01
66,067
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016. knocking.wiche.edu
* Total is the sum of Public School graduations and does not include Private School graduations, which data was not available in a disaggregated form. A table that includes
Private School totals is included in the appendix. The Public Schools Total will not exactly equal the sum of the races/ethnicities columns, which are projected separately. Academic Year refers to the K-12 calendar running fall to spring and may include graduates from any point in that school year, including the summer after the year end.
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Of 100 high school graduates in VA . . .
72 students in 2015 enrolled within 16 months at a:
• 4-year public,
• 4-year private, or
• 2-year institution72%
Little change in the percentage of HS graduates enrolling
Enrollment in postsecondary remained between 71-72%
from 2008 to 2015
Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/postsec_public/postsec.do?dowhat=LOAD_REPORT_C11
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Percentage of 2015 HS Graduates Going to College
54
65
58
74
87
65
66
74
67
77
72
Students w/Disabilities
Limite English Proficient
Economically Disadvantaged
2 or more race
Asian
Hispanic
Black
White
Male
Female
All
Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/postsec_public/postsec.do?dowhat=LOAD_REPORT_C11
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Division Total Students Number Enrolled Percent EnrolledKing and Queen
County 39 15 38%
Page County 263 110 42%
Westmoreland County 97 42 43%
Caroline County 229 102 45%
Charles City County 49 25 51%
Petersburg City 172 89 52%
Staunton City 171 89 52%
Appomattox County 167 87 52%
Amelia County 125 66 53%
Richmond City 990 530 54%
School Divisions w/ Lowest Percent of HS Graduates Enrolled
in College
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Division Total Students Number Enrolled Percent Enrolled
Fairfax County 12,048 10,111 84%
Prince William
County 5,338 4,052 76%
Loudoun County 4,458 3,825 86%
Virginia Beach City 4,546 3,313 73%
Chesterfield County 4,165 2,984 72%
Henrico County 3,125 2,246 72%
Chesapeake City 2,767 2,106 76%
Stafford County 2,102 1,526 73%
Spotsylvania County 1,620 1,053 65%
Arlington County 1,247 1,026 82%
School Divisions w/ Greatest Number of HS Graduates
Attending College
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Trends by Race
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HS Graduate College Enrollment
74 74 73 727 73 74 74
66 67 67 66 66 66 6666
59 5958
61 6163
6565
82 81 81 81 83 8586
87
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AsianAsian
White/
2 or more races
Black
Hispanic
Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/postsec_public/postsec.do?dowhat=LOAD_REPORT_C11
Hispanic
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Percent of Graduates Enrolling by Institution Type
30
Where Did 2015 HS Graduates Go to College?
4-year public 4-year private 2-year
19%
27%
29%
50%
50%
32%
39%
61%
45%
49%
47%
11%
6%
13%
16%
14%
10%
18%
9%
13%
15%
14%
69%
67%
58%
34%
36%
57%
43%
30%
41%
37%
39%
Students with Disabilities
Limited English Proficient Students
Economically Disadvantaged
2 or More
White
Hispanic
Black
Asian
Male
Female
All Students
Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/postsec_public/postsec.do?dowhat=LOAD_REPORT_C11
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Pell Undergraduate Enrollment Distribution
2016-17
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Source: All students http://research.schev.edu//fair/pell_trend_report.asp
Public 4-year, 45,240
Private,nonprofit, 39,760
Public 2-year, 60,659
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Pell Undergraduate Enrollment Trends
32
18%
23% 26% 27% 27% 26% 27% 26%27%
24%
32%38%
41% 41% 42% 41%37% 35%
30%
40%
46%51% 50% 50% 49%
48% 46%
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Public 4-year Public 2-year Private Nonprofi
Private non-profit
Public 2-year
Public 4-year
Source: http://research.schev.edu//fair/pell_trend_report.asp
Percent of Total Enrollments by Institution Type
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Virginia Plan Measure: Success
Source: http://research.schev.edu/gradrates/success_index.asp 2011-12 for 4-year/2013-14 for 2-year within 100% time frame
Target: Annually improve completion rates that close the gap between underrepresented populations and traditional students by 2030
Note: Underrepresented populations include those who are minority race/ethnicity, students ages 25 and older, low-income or from areas of the state in the lowest quintile for postsecondary attainment. Completion is measured by the student success index which includes students who graduate or remain enrolled at any Virginia institution within the measurement timeframe. The Student Success index is a broader measure than traditional graduation rates as it includes all students, including full-time, part-time, transfer and first-time in college students. In addition, success is counted by students who either graduate at their institution or another institution or remain enrolled after the measurement period.
Underrepresented populations
Non-underrepresented populations
Completion/Success Index for Public Institutions
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Success Index Public 4-Year (Normal time)
64%
70%
61%
60%
71%
65%
70%
68%
Students of Color
Majority Students
Pell at Entry
Age 25 or older at entry
Age 17-19 at entry
Male
Female
All
Success Index Public 4-Year (Normal time)
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Success Index Public 2-Year (Normal time)
34%
41%
24%
20%
34%
37%
38%
38%
Students of Color
Majority Students
Pell at Entry
Age 25 or older at entry
Age 17-19 at entry
Male
Female
All
Success Index Public 2-Year (Normal time)
35
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6-year graduation rates by income are improving,
but gaps remain largely the same
54% 57%65%
69%75% 77%
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
VA Public 4-year Institutions
High Income
Middle Income
Low Income
36
Source: http://research.schev.edu//gradrates/CHL_EconTrendsHeac.asp
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Attainment Rates in Rural Virginia
• Educational attainment in the Commonwealth’s “rural
horseshoe” lags the remainder of the state
– If the rural horseshoe were its own state of nearly 2.1
million residents, it would be tied with Arkansas at 50th
and ranked between Mississippi and West Virginia
with only 19% of its residents holding a bachelor’s
degree or higher – and 19% of adults fail to graduate
high school
– Nearly 1 in 3 adults are not in the workforce in
Southside and Southwest Virginia
Source: Virginia Community Colleges, Rural Virginia Horseshoe Initiative
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Individuals with Credits Earned and No Degree
at a VA Public or Private, Nonprofit Institution
38
Total Individuals Earning wages less than $44k0-10 credits 318,808 257,315 11-29 credits 180,752 152,302 30-59 credits 101,861 87,643 60-89 credits 33,450 31,696 90+ 13,039 12,301 Total Credits 647,910 541,257
Source: SCHEV research
Notes: Credits--Virginians Enrolled in Public and Nonprofit Private Colleges between 1992-93 and 2012-2013 who Passed at Least One Class with a "D" or Better.Earnings—Earnings are based on years 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, or 2015
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Virginia Plan Measure: Awards
Target: Grant 1.5 million undergraduate degrees and workforce credentials by 2030, including those that close the gap in unfilled jobs
Source: Commonwealth Degree, Certificate Completion Scorecard http://research.schev.edu/completions/completion_scorecard.asp
Actual and Projected Cumulative Awards to reach 1.5 million Target by 2030
Projections
Actuals
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Virginia Attainment Rates by County and Independent City
41
Sussex 12.1% Scott 22.6% Wythe 26.7% Pulaski 30.4%
Greensville 14.0% Grayson 22.7% Tazewell 26.7% Campbell 30.5%
Covington City 17.0% Russell 23.2% Carroll 26.8% Portsmouth City 30.6%
Buckingham 17.1% Nottoway 23.3% Mecklenburg 26.9% Orange 30.6%
Buchanan 18.7% Highland 23.3% Halifax 26.9% Franklin 30.7%
Page 18.9% Bland 23.5% Alleghany 27.1% Prince Edward 31.6%
Essex 19.6% Southhampton 23.6% Louisa 27.3% Madison 31.6%
Charles City County 19.6% Dinwiddie 24.0% King William 27.4% Surry 31.7%
Lunenburg 19.9% Charlotte 24.4% Caroline 27.5% Prince George 31.8%
Lee 20.0% Patrick 25.0% Emporia City 28.4% Rockingham 32.0%
Hopewell City 20.1% Buena Vista City 25.0% Appomattox 28.4% Danville City 32.1%
Galax City 20.2% Craig 25.2% Bath 28.8% Greene 32.3%
Richmond 20.6% Waynesboro City 25.3% Northhampton 29.1% Colonial Heights City 32.4%
Dickenson 20.7% Accomack 25.4% Martinsville City 29.4% Lancaster 32.5%
Petersburg City 21.5% Westmoreland 25.6% Amherst 29.4% Middlesex 32.9%
Cumberland 21.9% Smyth 26.0% Floyd 29.9% Roanoke City 33.1%
Amelia 22.4% Henry 26.2% Culpepper 30.0% Bristol City 33.3%
King and Queen 22.5% Giles 26.2% Northumberland 30.1% Rockbridge 33.5%
Brunswick 22.5% Shenandoah 26.4% Augusta 30.1% Nelson 34.3%
Wise 22.6% Pittsylvania 26.6% Warren 30.3% Hampton City 34.8%
Source: Lumina Foundation
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Virginia Attainment Rates by County and Independent City
42
Franklin City 34.8% Staunton City 41.1% Radford City 52.8%
Newport News City 35.1% Rappahannock 41.5% Charlottesville City 55.9%
Norfolk City 35.2% Salem City 41.8% York 56.0%
New Kent 35.3% Chesapeake City 41.8% Montgomery 56.9%
Gloucester 35.3% Fauquier 42.1% Williamsburg City 57.0%
Manassas Park City 36.1% Fredericksburg City 42.4% Lexington City 59.9%
Washington 36.3% Clarke 42.8% Albemarle 61.1%
Matthews 36.7% Lynchburg City 43.0% Fairfax City 63.5%
Norton City 37.0% Richmond City 43.2% Loudon 66.6%
Manassas City 37.0% Harrisonburg City 43.6% Fairfax 66.7%
Winchester City 37.4% Virginia Beach City 45.6% Alexandria City 67.0%
Powhatan 37.4% Goochland 45.8% Arlington 78.7%
Isle of Wight 37.6% Stafford 46.4% Falls Church City 84.5%
Sffolk City 37.9% Chesterfield 47.0%
Spotsylvania 38.1% Prince William 47.5%
Bedford 38.3% Hanover 48.4%
Fluvanna 38.7% Poquoson City 49.3%
Botetourt 38.8% Roanoke 49.4%
Frederick 40.2% Henrico 50.2%
King George 41.0% James City County 52.1%Source: Lumina Foundation
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Virginia High School Graduations
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Source: www.knocking.wiche.edu
Hispanic
School
Year
Hispanic
Alone, or Any
Race
White Black
American
Indian/Alaska
Native
Asian/Pacific
Islander
(Combined)
AY01 2,342 45,339 14,930 145 3,311 71,537 5,470 66,067
AY02 2,454 45,485 15,084 143 3,353 72,254 5,735 66,519
AY03 2,894 48,605 16,896 150 3,716 78,943 6,000 72,943
AY04 2,956 48,300 16,751 156 3,591 78,119 6,077 72,042
AY05 3,556 48,428 17,042 178 4,013 80,761 7,094 73,667
AY06 3,537 46,010 15,774 198 4,078 76,992 7,395 69,597
AY07 3,916 47,804 16,982 181 4,310 80,910 6,913 73,997
AY08 4,394 49,155 17,960 200 4,689 84,625 7,256 77,369
AY09 4,960 49,490 18,961 240 4,758 86,162 6,511 79,651
AY10 5,508 49,860 19,642 260 4,970 88,003 6,492 81,511
AY11 6,901 50,088 20,308 300 5,299 113 2,712 89,297 6,402 82,895
AY12 7,542 50,041 20,218 270 5,266 108 2,966 89,956 6,620 83,336
AY13 8,055 49,991 19,430 277 5,525 110 3,276 89,890 6,611 83,279
AY14 8,094 49,356 18,855 270 5,873 88,589 6,099 82,490
AY15 8,654 48,572 18,729 285 5,789 87,856 5,935 81,921
AY16 9,490 48,590 19,052 282 6,012 88,707 5,848 82,859
Public High School Graduations Total High School Graduations
GRAND
TOTAL
PRIVATE
SCHOOLS
TOTAL*
PUBLIC
SCHOOLS
TOTAL
Available Data for
Additional Race
Categories
Hawaiian/
Pacific
Islander
Two or
More Races
Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
School
Year
Hispanic
Alone, or Any
Race
White Black
American
Indian/Alaska
Native
Asian/Pacific
Islander
(Combined)
AY01 2,342 45,339 14,930 145 3,311 71,537 5,470 66,067
AY02 2,454 45,485 15,084 143 3,353 72,254 5,735 66,519
AY03 2,894 48,605 16,896 150 3,716 78,943 6,000 72,943
AY04 2,956 48,300 16,751 156 3,591 78,119 6,077 72,042
AY05 3,556 48,428 17,042 178 4,013 80,761 7,094 73,667
AY06 3,537 46,010 15,774 198 4,078 76,992 7,395 69,597
AY07 3,916 47,804 16,982 181 4,310 80,910 6,913 73,997
AY08 4,394 49,155 17,960 200 4,689 84,625 7,256 77,369
AY09 4,960 49,490 18,961 240 4,758 86,162 6,511 79,651
AY10 5,508 49,860 19,642 260 4,970 88,003 6,492 81,511
AY11 6,901 50,088 20,308 300 5,299 113 2,712 89,297 6,402 82,895
AY12 7,542 50,041 20,218 270 5,266 108 2,966 89,956 6,620 83,336
AY13 8,055 49,991 19,430 277 5,525 110 3,276 89,890 6,611 83,279
AY14 8,094 49,356 18,855 270 5,873 88,589 6,099 82,490
AY15 8,654 48,572 18,729 285 5,789 87,856 5,935 81,921
AY16 9,490 48,590 19,052 282 6,012 88,707 5,848 82,859
Public High School Graduations Total High School Graduations
GRAND
TOTAL
PRIVATE
SCHOOLS
TOTAL*
PUBLIC
SCHOOLS
TOTAL
Available Data for
Additional Race
Categories
Hawaiian/
Pacific
Islander
Two or
More Races
Non-Hispanic
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Virginia High School Graduations
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Source: www.knocking.wiche.edu
Hispanic
School
Year
Hispanic
Alone, or Any
Race
White Black
American
Indian/Alaska
Native
Asian/Pacific
Islander
(Combined)
AY17 10,103 48,303 18,507 298 6,053 87,930 5,570 82,360
AY18 10,996 49,258 19,105 259 6,649 90,456 5,494 84,962
AY19 11,722 49,173 18,655 261 6,967 90,213 5,203 85,010
AY20 12,765 48,261 18,605 275 7,301 89,790 4,935 84,855
AY21 13,347 48,370 18,288 260 7,649 89,657 4,772 84,885
AY22 14,561 49,151 18,278 259 8,008 91,059 4,595 86,465
AY23 15,694 48,584 18,451 299 8,107 91,009 4,334 86,676
AY24 17,232 48,975 18,859 335 8,348 93,342 4,931 88,411
AY25 18,759 49,684 19,493 360 8,636 95,632 4,974 90,659
AY26 17,722 48,386 19,139 362 8,621 93,457 4,806 88,651
AY27 16,848 47,532 18,923 342 8,865 91,822 4,684 87,138
AY28 15,328 47,468 18,344 338 8,790 89,939 4,586 85,353
AY29 15,315 47,487 17,946 246 8,772 89,654 4,616 85,038
AY30 15,928 47,246 18,007 416 9,067 90,093 4,632 85,461
AY31 16,112 46,621 17,964 471 8,742 89,309 4,582 84,727
AY32 16,602 47,086 17,716 377 9,303 90,284 4,628 85,656
Public High School Graduations Total High School Graduations
GRAND
TOTAL
PRIVATE
SCHOOLS
TOTAL*
PUBLIC
SCHOOLS
TOTAL
Non-Hispanic