Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century

Education and Workforce Developmentin the Early 21st Century Labor Market

Carl Van Horn, Ph.D.Professor and Director

John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Developmentand Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy

April 25, 2010

www.heldrich.rutgers.edu

Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market

2

The Katrina of Recessions

The nation’s longest recession; will take years to recover

Highest official unemployment rate in 30 years

Over 17 million officially unemployed; millions more discouraged or underemployed

8.5 million jobs lost since December 2007

Longest average length of unemployment in 62 years

11 million more workers today than in 2000, but the same number of jobs


3

High Unemployment at All Levels of Education

Those with more formal education experience lower levels of unemployment, but the unemployment rate has risen significantly for each group as compared to 10 years ago.

The Unemployment Rate by Education Level

5.8

3.52.5

1.7

15.3

10.59

5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Unemployment Rate-Less thana High School Diploma

Unemployment Rate-HighSchool Graduates, No College

Unemployment Rate-SomeCollege or Associate Degree

Unemployment Rate-Bachelor'sDegree or Higher

Dec. 1999 Dec. 2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, December 2009; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, December 2009.


4

New Realities of Workin the 21st Century Economy

Mid to Late 20th Century

Permanent

Stable Economy

Loyalty

“One and Done” Education

Defined Benefit Pension

“Early” Retirement

Safety Net for Most

Early 21st Century

Temporary/Contingent

Volatile Economy

Ambiguity/Disaffection

Lifelong Learning

Defined Contribution

“Never” Retire

Safety Net for Fewer


5

Caution: Predicting Job Growth is Difficult

Predicting which occupations will experience the largest growth is very difficult. While some occupations met or came close to expectations, many of these predictions were off by a long shot. Job growth depends largely on macroeconomic trends and industry growth, which are difficult to forecast and can be derailed by an economic downturn.

Occupations Projected to Experience the Largest Job Growth from 1998-2008, Against Actual Growth to 2008

551 493 463 451 439 433 375433 374

-1161

-187

3

540

137 71 121

577 563 556

-85

-1400-1200-1000-800-600-400-200

0200400600800

SystemsAnalysts

RetailSalespersons

Cashiers GeneralManagers andTop Executives

Truck Drivers,Light and

Heavy

Office Clerks,General

RegisteredNurses

ComputerSupport

Specialists

Personal Careand Home

Health Aides

TeacherAssistants

Em

plo

ym

en

t Le

ve

l (in

th

ou

san

ds)

Change Projected Actual Change

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections Program, Employment Projections 1998-2008, news release, November 30, 1999.


6

Will Most Jobs Expected to Grow Require Education and Training

Beyond High School, but Not a Four-Year Degree?

The occupations with the largest projected growth require a wide range of education and skill levels, indicating opportunities for job seekers at various skill and education levels.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Program, Employment Projections 2008-2018, news release, December 11, 2009.

Most Significant Source of Postsecondary Education Required for the 30 Occupations with the Largest Employment Growth

Projected, 2008-2018

7%

33%

57%

3%

Associate Degree

Short-term On-the-job-Training

Moderate-term On-the-jobTraining

Postsecondary VocationalAward


7

Where are the Big Job Opportunities in the Near Future?

Occupations predicted for the largest job growth are ones that already comprise a major source of employment. Occupations such as nurses, home health aides, retail salespersons, and office clerks cannot be outsourced to other countries.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Program, Employment Projections 2008-2018, news release, December 11, 2009.

Ten Occupations with the Largest Projected Growth, 2008-2018

582

461400 394 376 375 359

279 276 257

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

RegisteredNurses

Home HealthAides

CustomerService

Representatives

Combined FoodPreparation andServing Workers,including Fast

Food

Personal andHome Care

Aides

RetailSalespersons

Office Clerks,General

Accountantsand Auditors

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and

Attendants

PostsecondaryTeachers

(in

th

ousa

nd

s)


8

Are Green Jobs and Training the Next Big Thing?

Most “green jobs” are traditional jobs with a “green” component

Competing and confusing credentials

Amateur and experienced providers entering the training “Gold Rush”

Huge disparity in training quality

Online training is the new frontier

Source: Jennifer Lenahan-Cleary, “Going Green: Ensuring Success for Green Job Training Programs and Participants,” presented at the U.S. Department of Employment and Training Administration Heartland Conference, April 7-9, 2010.


9

The Green Job Education and Training Landscape is Not Unique

Growing interest from students and job seekers and government funding have fostered…

Trend #1: “Crowding at the Bottom”Trend #1: “Crowding at the Bottom”

Trend #2: Weak Connections between Job Market & Related Training

Trend #2: Weak Connections between Job Market & Related Training

Trend #3: Lack of Career Ladder TransparencyTrend #3: Lack of Career Ladder Transparency

Trend #4: Aggressive Recruiting especially for Online Courses

Trend #4: Aggressive Recruiting especially for Online Courses


10

What’s in Demand?Cross-Cutting Knowledge, Skills, and

Abilities Critical Thinking and Problem Solving - making decisions, solving

problems, and taking action

Effective Communication - the ability to synthesize and transmit your ideas both in written and oral formats

Collaboration and Team Building - the ability to work effectively with others, including those with diverse groups and with opposing points of view

Creativity and Innovation - the ability to see what’s not there and making something happen

Math/Science/Engineering/Technology Skills

Source: American Management Association and P21, “AMA 2010 Critical Skills Survey: Executive Summary,” April 2010.


11

Paradigm Evolution in Educationand Workforce Development

Prevailing Paradigms

Access (1960s+)

Quality/Competitiveness (1970s and 1980s+)

Graduation/Attainment (1990s+)

Learning, Alignment, Labor Market Outcomes (2000+)

Dominant Strategies

Funding Formulas; Financial Aid; Institutional Growth

Standards/Assessments K-12

Policy Development, Reporting

Skills & Abilities, Performance Accountability


12

Aligning Higher Education with Economic and Labor Market Goals

Several states are developing comprehensive education strategies that redefine the role of education to include being accountable for aligning with — and helping drive — economic prosperity as well as economic opportunity. These states are…

• Using labor market intelligence about employer needs,• Reforming curriculum to reflect the requirements of the

global economy,• Measuring the success of education on students’

employment outcomes and the ability of postsecondary education to serve the region’s employers, and

• Modifying funding formulas to incent or reward progress toward strategic goals.

Sources: National Governors Association (NGA) Center for Best Practices, “New Ground for State Economic Policy: Holding Higher Education Accountable for Meeting State Needs in a Knowledge-Based, Innovation Economy” (draft). Maria Heidkamp, “Initiative Strategies to Realign Postsecondary Education Outcomes with State Economic Development Goals,” presented at the NGA Center for Best Practices’ institute, Increasing Postsecondary Credential Attainment by Adults, March 2010.


13

New Goals and Strategies for Educational Institutions

and Policymakers Link higher education and workforce development with

economic development

Bolster workforce preparation strategies — standards, curriculum reform, experiential learning

Incent lifelong learning opportunities (Pell Grant, UI Reform)


14

New Goals and Strategies for Educational Institutions

and Policymakers Develop better labor market intelligence (Talent

Networks/Sector Strategies)

Create culture of accountability, informed choice, and consumer protection — Consumer Report Card, Voluntary Framework for Accountability

Allocate resources based on performance


15

Contact Information

Dr. Carl Van Horn

[email protected]

732.932.4100 x6305

www.heldrich.rutgers.edu

Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century

Education

labor market intelligence

largest job growth

employment program

labor statistics

workforce development

aggressive recruitingespecially

news release

unemployment rate