-
March 3, 2004
Document of the World Bank
Report No. 28064-KE
KenyaStrengthening the Foundation ofEducation and Training in
Kenya
Human Development ICountry Department: AFC05Africa Region
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by
recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its
contents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World Bank
authorization.
Report N
o. 28064- KE
Kenya Strengthening the Foundation of Education and Training in
Kenya
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Opportunities and Challenges in Primary and General Secondary
Education
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GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR
July 1 -June 30
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
ASAL CBE CBS CHE DEO EMIS ERAP FPE GDP GER GoK HELB HIViAIDS
KCPE KCSE KIE KNEC
Currency Unit: Kenya Shillings (KSh) Official Rate: US$ 1.00 =
75 KSh. (July 29,2003)
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
Arid and Semi-Arid Lands Curriculum-Based Establishment Central
Bureau of Statistics Commission for Higher Education District
Education Officer Education Management Information System Economic
Recovery Action Plan Free Primary Education Gross Domestic Product
Gross Enrollment Ratio Government of Kenya Higher Education Loans
Board Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency
Syndrome
Kenya Certificate of Primary Education Kenya Certificate of
Secondary Education Kenya Institute of Education Kenya National
Examination Council
Ksh MDGs MoEST MTEF NFE NGO OC PDE PE PER PRSP PTA PTR
SACMEQ
TAC TIMSS TVEC TSC
Kenyan Shilling Millennium Development Goals Ministry of
Education, Science, and Technology Medium-Tern Expenditure
Framework Nonfonnal Education Nongovernmental Organizations Other
Charges Provincial Director of Education Personal Emolument Public
Expenditure Review Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Parent Teacher
Association Pupil-Teacher Ratio Southem Africa Consortium for
Monitoring Education Quality Teacher Advisory Center Trends in
International Mathematics and Science Study Technical and
Vocational Education and Training Teachers Service Commission
This report was prepared by a team comprising Dandan Chen
(Economist, AFTHI, Task Team Leader), Donald Hamilton (Senior
Education Planner, AFTHl), and James Kamunge (Education Specialist,
Consultant). The team worked closely with the Technical Working
Group (TWG) of Ministry of Education, Science, and Technology
(MoEST), and participated the TWG’s retreats for the technical
discussions during 2002. The report benefited from comments by its
peer reviewers Manny Jimenez (Sector Director, EASHD), Peter Moock
(Consultant, AFTHl), and Harry Patrinos (Senior Education
Economist, LCSHE), and all the participants of the review meeting.
All the education colleagues at AFTHl have also provided comments
on an early draft. Technical guidance from Birger Fredriksen
(Senior Education Advisor, AFTHD) is much appreciated. Makhtar Diop
(Country Director), Dzingai Mutumbuka (Sector Manager), and Paud
Murphy (Lead Education Specialist, AFTHI) provided overall
guidance. Financial assistance from Norwegian Education Trust Fund
is gratefully acknowledged.
-
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Table of Contents Executive Summary
.....................................................................................................................................
i
Introduction
...............................................................................................................................................................
i Main Sector Issues and Critical Challenges
.............................................................................................................
ii Policy Recommendations
......................................................................................................................................
vi11 Sector Planning: Projections o f Costs and Financing
.............................................................................................
x i i
Macroeconomic Context and Demographic Trends
........................................................... 1
Evolution o f Gross Domestic Products
.....................................................................................................................
1 Fiscal Resources and Performance
...........................................................................................................................
2 Population and Labor Force
.....................................................................................................................................
4
...
Chapter 1
Evolution of the Population ...... Labor force and
employment
Impact ofHIV/AIDS ................. Economic Development
Perspectives
.......................................................................................................................
6
Macroeconomic Prospects
...................................................................................................................................
7 Education Sector Development
............................................................................................................................
7
Conclusions
..............................................................................................................................................................
8 Education Coverage and Attainment
..................................................................................
9
Historical Overview
..................................................................................................................................................
9 Preprimary Education
.............................................................................................................................................
10 Primary Education
..................................................................................................................................................
11 General Secondary Education
................................................................................................................................
13 Determinants for Low Enrollment at Primary and Secondary Level
......................................................................
15 Postsecondary Education and Training
..................................................................................................................
16
....................................... 17 .....................
17
Chapter 2
University
.................................................................
................................................ 16 Tertiary-Level
Technical Education . Teacher Education and Training
Other Education and Training ............. Technical and
Vocational Education and Training (TVET) Nonformal Education (NFE)
Adult Education ......................... 19
............................ 20
Conclusions ........ ................................ Chapter 3
Internal Efficiency and Student Flows
..............................................................................
24
Late School Entry
...................................................................................................................................................
24 Dropout Rate at Primary Level
...............................................................................................................................
25 Grade Repetition at Primary Level
.........................................................................................................................
26
.............................................
.................................... 27 Dropout at Secondary Level
...................................................................................................................................
28 Repetition Rate at Secondary Level
.......................................................................................................................
28 Completion Rate and Cohort Flow at Secondary Level
.........................................................................................
29 Primary to Secondary Transition Rates
..........................................................................................
: ....................... 30
......................................................................................................................................................
31 Education Quality
................................................................................................................
32
Educational Inputs
..................................................................................................................................................
32 Curriculum
.........................................................................................................................................................
32 Teachers
...........................................................
..............................................................................
33
ing materials ..............
.............................................................. 41
........................... ........................ 43 rmance
...............................................................................
..................... 44
Cohort Flows and Completion at Primary Level ......
Chapter 4
lThis document has a restricted distribution and may be used by
recipients only in lthe performance of their official duties . I t
s contents may not be otherwise disclosed 1 lwithout W o r l d Bank
authorization . I
-
Kenya Certificate of Primary Education (KCPE)
............................ Kenya Certijicate of Secondary
Education (KCSE) ..................................... 45
Conclusions
.................................................................
Chapter 5 Education Cost and Finance
...............................................................................................
48
Overall Public Finance
...........................................................................................................................................
48 Recurrent Government Expenditure on Education
................................................................................................
-49
Development Expenditure and Donor Finance ....................
Efficiency o f Public Spending
................................................................................................................................
59 Equity o f Public Spending: Benefit Incidence
........................................................................................................
61 Household Expenditure on Education
....................................................................................................................
61 Conclusions
............................................................................................................................................................
64
Institutional Arrangement and Management o f Education Service
Delivery ................ 65 Overall Institutional Arrangement for
Service Delivery
........................................................................................
65 Management and Capacity o f MoEST
...................................................................................................................
69
Allocation across subsectors
................................................................
Allocation across functions and Unit Cost Composition
Chapter 6
Funds Flow ....
......................................................................
74
Decentralization of Educational Management
......................... Provincial Level Management
..................... District Level Management
Management o f Inspection o f Services
...................................................................................................................
80 Conclusions
............................................................................................................................................................
81
Chapter 7 Policy Directions and Sector Development Projections
................................................... 82 Critical
Challenges
.................................................................................................................................................
82
Equitable Expansion of Enrollment
Quality of Education
.......................................................... 83
........................................................................................
82 Internal efjciency
..............................................................................................................................................
83
Costs and Financing .................... 84 Sector Strategies
.....................................................................................................................................................
84
Expand Enrollment
.....................................................................................................................................
84 Improve Quality ..........................................
Enhance Eflciency of Resource A Strengthen Institutional Arrange
............................. 91
Secondary Level ............................. Issues of Special
Attention for Further Sector Planning
..................................................................................
107
Additional Tables
...............................................................................................................
110 Kenya at A Glance
.............................................................................................................
124
Sector Development Projections ..... Primary Level
............................
Conclusions
..........................................................................................................................................................
108 Annex I Annex I1 Bibliography
............................................................................................................................................
126
11
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List of Tables Table 1.1: Real GDP Growth 1980-2001
.....................................................................................................................
1 Table 1.2: Current GDP Per Capita and Population
......................................................................................................
1 Table 1.3: Government Revenue and Expenditure As Percentage o f
GDP, 199711998 - 200212003 ............................ 2 Table
1.4: Expenditure Category and As Percentage o f GDP, 199711998 -
2002l2003 ............................................... 2 Table
1.5: Share of Public Expenditures By Sector
......................................................................................................
3 Table 1.6: Population by Gender and Age Structure in 1999 (in
1000s)
.......................................................................
4
Table 1.8: Total Employment And Shares by Sector 1997 - 2001 (in
1000s)
...............................................................
5
Table 2.2: Primary School Gross Enrollment Rates by Sex 1989 -
2000
...................................................................
12
Table 2.4: Enrollment Increase by Region between 2000 and 2003
...........................................................................
13 Table 2.5: Secondary School Gross Enrollment Rates by Sex
1989-2000
.................................................................
14 Table 2.6: Secondary School Gross Enrollment by Sex and
Province, 2000
............................................................ 14
Table 2.7: Reasons for Non-School Attendance (by percentage)
................................................................................
15 Table 2.8: Enrollment in Universities 1995-2001
.......................................................................................................
16 Table 2.9: Enrollment in Technical Education 2000-2001
..........................................................................................
17 Table 2.10: Enrollment in Public Primary Teacher Training
Colleges 1991-2001
..................................................... 18 Table 2.1
1: Enrollment in Adult Literacy Programs
...................................................................................................
19 Table 2.12: Enrollment in Special Education at Primary Leve l by
Sex 1986-99
........................................................ 20
Table 1.7: School Age Population Estimates
................................................................................................................
5
Table 2.1 : Evolution o f Gross Enrollment Ratio o f Preprimary
Education (in Percentage) ........................................
11
Table 2.3: Primary Schools Gross Enrollment Rate by Province and
Sex, 2000 ........................................................
12
Table 2.13: Enrolment in Special Schools at Secondary Level by
Sex 1990-99
......................................................... 20 Table
3.1: Primary School Dropout Rates by Province and Gender in 1999
............................................................. 25
Table 3.2: Primary School Drop-out Rates by Sex and Grade
....................................................................................
25 Table 3.3: Primary School Repetition Rates by Province and Sex,
1999
....................................................................
26
Table 3.6: Cohort Flow at Primary Level
....................................................................................................................
27 Table 3.7: Secondary School Dropout Rates by Province and Gender
in 1999 .........................................................
28 Table 3.8: Secondary School Dropout Rates by Sex and Grade
.................................................................................
28
Table 3.4: Primary School Repetition Rate by Sex and Grade, 1999
............ -
........................................................... 26
Table 3.5: Primary School Enrollment Size by Sex in Grade 1 and
Grade 8 during Eight Year Cycle, 1989 - 200027
Table 3.9: Secondary School Repetition Rates by Province and
Sex, 1999
............................................................... 29
Table 3.10: Secondary Repetition Rates by Grade and Sex
.......................................................................................
29 Table 3.11: Secondary School Enrollment Size by Sex in Form I
and Form IV during Four Year Cycle, 1989 - 2000
............................................................................................................................................................................
29
Table 3.13: Primary to Secondary School Transition Rates by Sex,
1991-2000 .........................................................
30
Table 4.1: 2001 KCPE Candidates by Subject
...........................................................................................................
32 Table 4.2: Numbers o f Primary Teachers by Qualification
1997-2003
.......................................................................
34
Table 3.12: Secondary School Cohort Flow
................................................................................................................
30
Table 3.14: Public Primary School Transition Rates by Sex and
Province, 2000
...................................................... 31
Table 4.3: Pupil-Teacher Ratio by District and Province 2003
...................................................................................
35 Table 4.4: Number o f Secondary Teachers by Qualification
1997-2001 ......................... :
......................................... 38
Table 4.6: Reasons for Teachers Leaving Service (%)
...............................................................................................
40 Table 4.7: Availability o f Textbooks
...........................................................................................................................
41 Table 4.8: Availability o f Classroom and School Libraries
........................................................................................
42 Table 4.9: Availability o f Other Learning Materials
...................................................................................................
42 Table 4.10: Availability o f Classroom Furniture
.........................................................................................................
43 Table 4.1 1: Indicators o f Other School Facility Status
................................................................................................
43
Table 4.13: Performance by Gender, 2001
..................................................................................................................
45
Table 4.5: Distribution o f Secondary School Teachers across
Provinces and Districts, 2000 ....................................
38
Table 4.12: Examination Performance in English, Maths, Physics,
Biology and Chemistry at KCSE 1992-2001 ..... 45
Table 5.1 : Share o f Government Revenue and Expenditure as
Percentage o f GDP
.................................................... 48 Table 5.2:
Government Expenditure on Social Services and Education (by
percentage) ............................................ 49 Table
5.3: MoEST Recurrent Expenditure by level, 1996197-2002 in Ksh Mil
l ions .................................................. 50 Table
5.4: Proportion o f Subsector Public Recurrent Expenditure
..............................................................................
50
... 111
-
Table 5.5: Unit Cost Evolution (Kshs. Per pupil. Per year):
1996197 -2002103
......................................................... 52 Table
5.6: Number o f Teachers and Pupils at Primary Level 1993-2003
....................................................................
53 Table 5.7: Numbers o f Primary and Secondary School Teachers by
Category
........................................................... 55
Table 5.8: Average Annual Salary o f Teachers by Category (Kshs)
...........................................................................
56 Table 5.9: Average Monthly Earnings in Public Sector by Function
..........................................................................
57 Table 5.10: Development Expenditure Per Subsector, 1997-2002
(million Ksh)
....................................................... 59 Table
5.1 1 : Public spending on education and indicators o f education
achievement in selected African countries ... 60 Table 5.12:
Benefit Incidence o f Public Expenditure
..................................................................................................
61 Table 5.13: Components o f Household Education Expenditures
(Ksh, per child annually) .......................................
62 Table 5.14: Household Education Expenditure on Primary and
Secondary Education ...............................................
63 Table 6.1 : Functional Assignments for Education Services in
Kenya
.........................................................................
65 Table 7.1: Primary Level Enrollment Projection
.........................................................................................................
95
Table 7.3: Projection o f Development Costs for Classroom
Construction at Primary Level: Lower-Bound .............. 97
Table 7.5: Projection o f Development Costs for Classroom
Construction at Primary Level: Upper-Bound .............. 99 Table
7.6: Summary o f Recurrent Costs (USD million)
.............................................................................................
99 Table 7.7: Baseline Case Enrollment Projection at Secondary
Level
........................................................................
102 Table 7.8: Recurrent Costs with Base Case Secondary Enrollment
and N o Efficiency Improvement : Baseline
Scenario
............................................................................................................................................................
103 Table 7.9: Constant Transition Rate with Efficient Utilization
o f Teachers: Scenario 1 ..........................................
104 Table 7.10: Enrollment Expansion at Secondary Level
............................................................................................
105 Table 7.1 1: Recurrent Costs wi th Secondary Enrollment
Expansion and Efficiency Improvement : Scenario 2 ..... 106
Table 7.2: Projection o f Recurrent Costs for Teachers
Compensation and School Grants at Primary Level: Lower- Bound
.................................................................................................................................................................
96
Table 7.4: Projection o f Recurrent Costs for Teachers
Compensation and School Grants at Primary Level: Upper- Bound
.................................................................................................................................................................
98
Table A . 1: Primary GER by District. 2003
..............................................................................................................
110 Table A . 2: Classroom-Pupil Ratio at Primary Level by
District. 2003
....................................................................
112 Table A . 3: Public Finance: Recurrent Expenditure for MoEST,
2001102-2003/04 .................................................
114 Table A . 4: Public Finance: Teacher Salaries: 2002103-2003104
..............................................................................
116 Table A . 5 : Public Finance: Development Expenditure:
2001lO2-2003/04
............................................................... 117
Table A . 6: Public Finance: Summary 2001/02-2003104
..........................................................................................
117
Table A . 8: Public Primary School Transition Rates by Sex and
District, 2000
....................................................... 120 Table A
. 9: Composition o f Standard Instructional Materials
...................................................................................
122 Table A . 10: Estimation o f Unit Cost o f Instructional
Materials
...............................................................................
123
........................................................................
Table A . 7: Secondary School Enrollment by Sex and District, 2000
118
List of Figures Figure 1.1 : Fiscal Deficit as Percent o f GDP
................................................................................................................
3 Figure 2.1: Structure o f Education and Training in Kenya
..........................................................................................
10 Figure 2.2: Grade Attainment Profile by RuralNrban
................................................................................................
21
Figure 2.4: Grade Attainment Profile by Gender
........................................................................................................
22 Figure 2.5: Grade Attainment Profile by Household Wealth
......................................................................................
23 Figure 3.1: Girl’s Age Composition in Standard 1
......................................................................................................
24 Figure 3.2: Boy’s Age Composition in Standard 1
......................................................................................................
24
Figure 4.2: Comparison o f Candidates Mean Performance in the
Year 2001 and 2000 KCPE Examinations ........... 44 Figure 4.3:
SACMEQ Reading Scores, 2000
..............................................................................................................
46 Figure 4.4: SACMEQ Maths Scores, 2000
.................................................................................................................
46
Figure 5.2: Primary School KCPE Ranking and PTR
.................................................................................................
55
Figure 5.4: Public Sector Monthly Eamings by Industry: 1996-2000
........................................................................
58
Figure 2.3: Grade Attainment Profile by Province
......................................................................................................
21
Figure 2.6: Grade Attainment Profile by Household Wealth (Age
10-14 cohort)
....................................................... 23
Figure 4.1 : School Level Teacher Distribution In Relation to
Number o f Pupils at Primary Level ............................
37
Figure 5.1 : Growth of Pupils and Teachers at Primary Level,
1993-2003
..................................................................
54
Figure 5.3: Civ i l Servant’s Salary Increase
.................................................................................................................
57
i v
-
Figure 5.5: Public Sector Average Salary Growth Rate. 1996-2000
(1996=100) .......................................................
58 Figure 5.6: Education Spending as Percentage o f GDP vs . GDP
Per Capita
.............................................................. 60
Figure 5.7: Household Expenditure on Primary and Secondary
Education
................................................................ 62
Figure 5.8: Primary and Secondary Education Expenditure as
Percentage o f Household Total and Non-Food
Expenditure
.........................................................................................................................................................
63 Figure 5.9: Public vs . Household (Private) Spending Per Pupil
..................................................................................
64 Figure 6.1 : Institutional Arrangement o f Education Service
Delivery
........................................................................
66 Figure 6.2: Organization Chart o f Ministry o f Education,
Science, and Technology
................................................. 70 Figure 7.1:
Upper- and Lower-Bound o f Recurrent Costs at Primary Level
............................................................. 100
Figure 7.2: Upper- and Lower-Bound o f Classroom Construction Costs
at Primary Level ...................................... 100 Figure
7.3: Recurrent Cost Projections at Secondary Level
......................................................................................
107
V
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Executive Summary
Introduction 1. Kenya i s currently going through an important
political and economic transition period. On December 27, 2002,
Kenyan voters elected their f irst new president in 24 years,
ending the political domination o f the party that has ruled Kenya
since independence. Facing the tremendous challenge o f
revitalizing economic performance, the new Govemment i s quickly
moving forward to strengthen its poverty reduction efforts, and to
address the governance and economic management issues. The
Govemment has put the highest priority on education, recognizing
the close links between poverty alleviation, economic growth, and
human development.
2. The new Govemment has instituted immediate policy changes in
the education sector to jump- start the system. Under the “Free
Primary Education (FPE)” policy started this year, school fees and
levies are abolished at primary level, thereby greatly relieving
the household burden o f financing primary education. Households
immediately responded. Including both public and non-public
schools, the primary education gross enrollment rate jumped to over
100 percent, with close to 1 mil l ion enrollment increase from the
previous year. Enrollment in primary schools has reached 7.2 mil l
ion this year from 6.3 mil l ion in 2002. Quality improvement
measures have also taken place at this level, with nationwide
provision o f funding directly to primary schools through a
capitation grant o f 1,020 Kenyan Shillings per pupil to finance
the purchase o f textbooks and other teaching and leaming
materials, as well as to support other school operation
activities.
3. The expansion of school enrollment and the improvement o f
education quality at primary level will continue during the
subsequent years. The development at this level has increased
pressure on as well as provided opportunities to the other
subsectors. A wider sector reform agenda needs to be put in place
immediately. The Kenya National Education Conference held in
November 2003 provided an opportunity for the discussions o f a
sector strategic plan with al l the stakeholders. A sector-wide
program with wider coverage will be developed based on the sector
strategic plan.
4. The World Bank i s providing a great deal o f support to the
education and training sector in Kenya. The “Free Primary Education
Support Project” became effective in July, 2003, providing US$50
mil l ion grant to finance the provision of instructional materials
to the primary schools nationwide, together with essential capacity
building activities in the sector for better service delivery. This
sector review has also been a result o f the close collaboration
between the technical working group in the Ministry o f Education,
Science, and Technology (MoEST), and the Bank education team. The
review provides an analytical base with identified sector issues,
and focused sector development directions, which will form a solid
foundation for the sector strategic planning and preparation o f
the sector reform program. The Bank i s also envisaged to play an
important role in supporting the sector-wide program.
5. This sector review has emphasized the primary and secondary
subsectors, although the postsecondary levels are covered in the
discussions o f the system coverage, management, and resource
allocation. This i s mainly owing to the fact that a labor market
study i s planned to be conducted jointly by the Bank and the
Govemment. The information from that study will be crucial to the
analysis o f the extemal efficiency o f the sector, particularly
with close linkages with postsecondary level education and
training.
i
-
Main Sector Issues and Critical Challenges Enrollment 6. Kenya
has made great strides in expanding the total number o f students
enrolled in primary and secondary education. Since Independence in
1963, the total enrollment at primary level has grown from a mere
891,533 to over 7 mill ion in 2003, and from 30,000 to over 800,000
at the secondary level currently. However, during the 90s the
enrollment increase slowed down significantly and did not keep pace
with the school-age population growth. After peaking at 105 and 30
percent respectively, both the primary and secondary gross
enrollment ratios have declined through the 1990s. At the beginning
o f 2000, including both public and registered private schools, the
GER at both the primary and secondary level has fallen to 88 and 22
percent respectively (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2).
7. In 2003, following the implementation o f “Free Primary
Education” policy, a massive increase in primary enrollment took
place. Including both public and non-public primary schools, the
enrollment at the primary level has exceeded 7 million,
representing a GER of nearly 104 percent, which i s much higher
than the average o f 79 percent among al l Sub- Sahara African
(SSA) countries (African Development Indicators, 2003).
8. At the secondary level, about 660,000 students were enrolled
in 2000. Current enrollment i s estimated at 700,000. Given an
8-year primary cycle, the secondary education in Kenya i s largely
equivalent to upper secondary level in other SSA countries.
Although the gross enrollment ratio at this level i s comparable
with the regional average, its lag behind the primary GER i s more
distinctive now (Fig. 2).
9. Regional disparities in enrollment s t i l l exist at both
primary and secondary level. The magnitude o f the responses to the
FPE policy also varies across the regions. Currently, the
Fig. 1: Primary and Secondary Enrollment
0 8 6,000 8 4,000 E
v - - - g 2,000 W
0
7 1 Source Ministry of Educunon, Sciency and Technology
(MoEST)
Fig. 2: Primary and Secondary GER
30
10 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
2002 2003
+primary -secondary
Source: MoEST.
Fig. 3: Regional Disparities in Primary and Secondary GER
(%)
1 Ourimarv Msecondarv 1
Source: MoEST 2000. 2003.
_ . Northeastern Province has the lowest primary and secondary
gross enrollment’ratios (at 23.2 and 4.5 percent respectively),
with Nairobi the next lowest (Fig. 3).
11
-
Internal Efficiency 10. The education system in Kenya has also
been characterized by l o w internal efficiency, as indicated by
the high grade repetition and dropout rate.
11. At the primary level, although the dropout rate in each
grade averages 5 percent, the cumulative effect i s quite large. By
the end o f the gth year, only an average o f 63 percent o f the
entrants are s t i l l in the system. In the meantime, the grade
repetition rate i s alarmingly high, and averages about 14 percent
annually between Standards 1 and 7. I t i s estimated that among
the 63 percent.who are s t i l l in the system by the 8" year, only
about a third o f them are in grade eight. The rest are s t i l l
in the lower grades owing to grade repetition at some point. Out o
f an average o f 52 percent o f the entrants who eventually
complete the 8" grade, only 40 percent exit the primary cycle o n
time (Fig. 4).
100 -
80 --
60 --
40 --
20 --
0
12. The survival at the secondary level i s relatively better.
By the end o f the 4th year, an average o f 84 percent o f the
entry cohort i s st i l l in the system. On average, 81 percent o f
the entry cohort complete the secondary cycle eventually, with over
90 percent o f the graduates graduating o n time (Fig. 5).
--
Quality 13. The national examinations to obtain the Kenya
Certificate o f Primary Education (KCPE) at the end o f primary
cycle and the Kenya Certificate o f Secondary Education (KCSE) at
the end o f secondary cycle are designed to evaluate the extent to
which the primary and secondary graduates master the curriculum
content. The results f rom the KCPE examinations in 2001 show that
the overall score i s low. English, Kiswahil i, and mathematics
subjects are among those with the lowest scores. Test scores from
the KCSE examination results are even worse, with the scores below
40 percent in a l l the subjects tested in 2001. In addition, the
trend does not seem to have improved over the years. In the K C S E
examination, girls do better than boys
Fig. 4: Cohort Survival During Primary Cycle
Source: MoES7: 2000
standard 8
"standard 7
standard 6 .----I
-standard 5
-standard 4
'standard3
-standard 2
-standard I -
Fig. 5: Cohort Survival During Secondary Cycle
i -Form I V
L_I Form 111
-Form I1
-Form I
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
year
Source: MoEST, 2000.
Fig. 6: 2001 KCPE Examination Results (%)
Source: Kenyu Nurionul Exuminution Council. (KNEC), 2001.
in English, Swahili, and chemistry, but boys-are far better in
mathematics and other science subjects (Fig 6. and Fig. 7).
... 111
-
14. Although the KCPE and KCSE examination outcomes are not
satisfactory, Kenyan students seem to do well in standard
competency tests. For example, the SACMEQ results show that Kenyan
6th-graders performed well on reading and mathematics tests, with
both scores ranking second after Seychelles and Mauritius for
reading and mathematics, respectively (Fig. 8).
15. The differentials o f the results o f the public
examinations such as KCPE and KCSE, and the standard learning
assessment such as SACMEQ are arguably due to the bias o f public
examinations in measuring learning outcome as they also serve the
purpose o f selecting students for the next cycle o f education.
The selection requires certain degree o f difficulty o f the
testing items so as to differentiate the top students. In the
meantime, to emphasize the accountability o f schools and teachers
in the quality o f education service delivery, the public
examinations also bear the objective o f differentiating schools wi
th various performance. This also requires certain level o f
difficulty o f the examinations.
16. Although Kenyan students are doing relatively better than
other SACMEQ countries, there i s general concerns among education
officers, teachers and parents that the education quality i s not
satisfactory by international standards. For example, although
Kenya has not participated in the
Fig. 7: 2001 K C S E Examination Results
English Maths Physics Biology Chemistry
Source: KNEC, 2001
Fig. 8: SACMEQ Scores, 2001 I I
Source Southern Africu Consortiumfor Monitoring Educution
Quulity (SACMEQJ, 2001 I
“Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS)”,
the participating South Africa could provide a useful benchmark.
The low performance o f South African students i s particularly
alarming as South Africa i s generally considered the highest
performer in Sub-Sahara Africa.
17. Due to the introduction o f the diversified and costly
curriculum in the 80s, public resources could basically only
finance teachers’ salaries, leaving other teaching and learning
inputs to be financed by parents, who were also under tight
financial constraint during the same period o f time due to
declining economy and increased poverty. I t i s arguable that
shortage and inappropriateness o f educational inputs has shown
negative impacts on the learning outcomes. The most important
inputs include teachers, curriculum, instructional materials, and
learning environment.
18. Overall teacher availability i s adequate at the primary
level. However, there are huge variations in the pupil-teacher
ratio across individual schools, zones, and districts. The
nationwide pupil-teacher ratio i s estimated at 39: 1 at this
level, with variations from 21: 1 (Baringo District in Rift Valley
Province) to 57:l (Mandera District in North Eastern Province). The
overall pupil-teacher ratio at the secondary level i s 16:1, which
i s quite low by regional standards. As teachers teach by subject
at this level, the demand for teachers i s mainly determined by the
curriculum. Therefore many factors, such as the number
iv
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o f subjects offered and the school size all affect the level o
f pupil-teacher ratio at secondary level. However, the current low
secondary pupil-teacher ratio i s a good indicator showing the low
efficiency levels o f teacher utilization in secondary schools.
19. The diversified curriculum was introduced together with the
8-4-4 system (8 years o f primary education, 4 years o f secondary
education, and at least 4 years o f university education) which
started in the mid-1 980s. This diversified curriculum includes 13
teaching subjects and seven examinable subjects for KCPE at primary
level, and 32 teaching subjects and eight examinable subjects for
KCSE at secondary level. Although many o f the elective courses are
taken by very few students, supporting the system requires a large
amount o f resources to provide specialized teachers, school
facilities, and equipment, and extra teaching and learning
materials. In the meantime, whether such a curriculum i s relevant
with regard to the objectives o f general education i s arguable.
After detailed evaluation by MoEST and other agencies in Kenya, the
curriculum reform has already started with the reduction o f the
number o f subjects examined in KCPE from seven to five, and KCSE
from eight to seven. Broad guidelines have also been developed to
encourage the adaptation o f the curricula to the local
environment, with strengthened support for effective
teaching-learning to ensure that learners gain relevant knowledge
and skills. The reformed curriculum i s being implemented in
phases: Standard 1 and 5 at primary level, Form I at secondary
level in 2003; Standard 2 and 6, and Form I1 in 2004; Standard 3
and 7, and Form I11 in 2005, and Standard 4 and 8, and Form IV in
2006.
20. Lack o f teaching and learning materials has also been
identified as an issue negatively affecting education quality. In
2001, more than three quarters o f the students surveyed by SACMEQ
study reported lack o f textbooks. The study also found that the
availability o f exercise books and notebooks was only 25 and 18
percent o f what i s required. The Government i s fully aware o f
the importance o f the instructional materials in education
quality. Following the implementation o f the FPE policy in 2003,
primary schools have received capitation grants from MoEST for
teaching and learning materials including textbooks, teaching
guides, supplementary reading materials, as well as exercise books
and stationary packages. The textbook-pupil ratio i s expected to
reach 1:3 at lower primary, and 1:2 at upper primary level. The
impact on learning outcome o f the great improvement in the
availability o f textbooks and other instructional materials at
primary level will be seen in the coming years.
21. The learning environment including classrooms and other
school facilities also has an impact on learning outcomes. Based on
the school level information collected in 2003, the total number o
f classrooms nationwide i s quite adequate at primary level, with
an average pupil-classroom ratio o f 36: 1. However, the classroom
distribution i s quite uneven in relation to the enrollments in the
districts, with pupil-classroom ratio ranging from 7 1: 1 (Kisumu
Municipality), to as low as 22: 1 (Turkana District in Rift Valley
Province). The findings o f the SACMEQ 2001 survey shows that
school sitting and writing places are adequate. However, much o f
the school furniture i s not in good condition. Schools also tend
to be overcrowded with regard to small average classroom space per
pupil and extremely crowded sanitary facilities shared by too many
pupils.
22. Although educational inputs are closely linked to learning
outcome, the other crucial factor i s the process that mobilizes
inputs to produce the results. It explains why schools wi th
comparable inputs produce different results. The process factors
include effective school management, leadership, and culture;
classroom time and successful students’ grouping with special
attention to some individual students; effective utilization o f
teaching resources including innovations in teaching methodology,
collaborative lesson planning, peer support on pedagogy; and close
monitoring student achievement and sharing with parents and staff
for further development. These are all the areas that need further
investigation.
V
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23. Total education spending as a
for many years in Kenya. However, Kenya percentage of GDP has
reached Over 6 percent
does not get the value o f these allocated public resources as
compared to other Sub-Sahara African countries (Fig. 9). With
similar levels o f overall Education Index (a composite index
reflecting both a country’s adult literacy and i t s primary and
secondary school enrollments), some other SSA countries spend far
less on the education sector as percent o f their GDP.
Fig. 9: Public Education Spending vS. Education Index
I 0.9
0 8
8 0.7 c .- 0.6
0.5
0.4
0 3
x
A I Y
achievement factors, the widely recognized unsatisfactory
students’ academic
......................................... ..*.... 4
1 I
Source: Humon Development Report, UNDP, m i .
............................. .. *........‘rt
....................
............... ~ ........ L . ?...*..@ ...............
....... ............................................ *- - - - -
- - - - 0 2 4 6 8
Education Spending as % of GDP Although the Education- Index
does not take into account the aualitv or leamina
24. This inefficiency o f public spending on education i s
mainly owing to the inappropriate resource allocation and
utilization within the sector. A large proportion o f spending i s
on personal emoluments, leaving l i t t le resources to support
educational inputs, such as teaching and learning materials, school
equipment, and other operational activities at school level. Before
2002, teacher salaries had constituted as much as 99 percent o f
recurrent expenditure at the primary level, and over 95 percent at
the secondary level. The allocation between personal emoluments and
other operational costs reached a reasonable level at the primary
level following the implementation o f the “Free Primary Education”
policy in 2003. The current personal emolument (PE)/other charges
(OC) ratio at primary level i s 81:19 in 2003. However, to make
this level o f allocation sustainable at primary level, and further
adjust the PE/OC allocation at secondary level, there are two areas
in which policy changes could make a difference.
25. The f i rs t area i s teacher’s salary level. The average
annual eamings o f primary and secondary school teachers are
reasonable compared with Kenya’s GDP per capita, with the average
primary school teacher’s salary about 3.5 times, and secondary
school teacher’s salary 5.5 times the per capita GDP. Teachers’
eamings are also comparable with the civil servants in other
sectors. Although the levels o f teacher’s salaries are adequate,
the total cost o f employing teachers i s quite high since benefits
constitute a large proportion o f teacher’s overall compensation
package. Including all the benefits, the average teacher’s
compensation would be six to nine times the GDP per capita at the
primary and secondary levels, respectively. In addition, in some
cases, teacher’s qualifications do not match their positions.
Teachers are paid according to their qualifications, but do not
necessarily reflect the jobs they are actually doing. For example,
although usually only P1 teachers are needed at the primary level,
there are s t i l l graduate teachers teaching at this level, with
a graduate teacher’s salary. The utilization o f “over- qualified”
teachers also pushed the average PE cost higher.
26. The second area concems the overall teacher supply. Before
the enrollment increase in 2003, Kenya had one o f the lowest
pupil-teacher ratios in Africa at the primary level. Further, this
ratio declined steadily over time - from 39 in 1963 to 33 in 2000.
Following the primary enrollment jump in 2003, the current PTR has
come back to an adequate level o f 39:l. At the secondary level,
the PTR dropped from 26 in 1983 to a mere 16 now. The decline in
the pupil-teacher ratio in recent years has been a result o f
declining enrollment together with the supply-driven teacher
employment. Although the
vi
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practice o f supply-driven teacher employment has been replaced
by a demand-driven approach in recent years, the deployment o f
teachers over the years under the supply-driven approach has
resulted in wide variations in the pupil-teacher ratio across
schools and communities. Curriculum-related overstaffing has also
been a distinctive phenomenon at the secondary level. Owing to the
broad curriculum and low student registration for many selective
courses, many teachers do not have a sufficient teaching load.
Equity
27. Most o f the public spending on education that benefits the
poor i s delivered through primary education; however, this
pro-poor effect i s marl other hand, i s pro-rich. The poorest 20
percent o f the households received only 10 percent o f the
government subsidies that went to secondary schools. In contrast,
the richest 20 percent received 24 percent (Fig.10). The degree o f
inequality i s even more severe if one looks at the distribution o
f public spending across al l school-age children instead o f
across households, due to the fact that poor households have more
out-of-school children o f the relevant age range. In addition,
even some o f the children from poor households do go to school,
these schools in poor communities tend to receive less public
resources such as teachers from the government.
28. The ineff icient and inequitable public spending on
education has put much o f the financing burden on poor
households.
la1 in Kenva. SDending on secondarv education. on the
Fig. 10: Equity of Public Spending: Concentration Curve
0 20 40 60 80 100
--t primary --E#-- secondary
Household expenditures include tuition, school uniform,
textbooks, transportation, meals and boarding, and “Harambee”
contribution. At primary level, before the FPE policy was
implemented, it cost a household 1,210 Kshs (US $16) annually on
average to send a child to the primary school. Household
expenditure on secondary education i s much higher than at primary
level. The average annual expenditure i s close to 10,000 Kshs (US
$130 equivalent) annually per secondary school pupil. Given the
fact that public expenditure on education i s already high in the
country, this indicates that the overall unit cost i s alarmingly
high at the primary and secondary levels in Kenya.
Institutional Arrangement and Capacity for Service Delivery 29.
Adequate institutional arrangements and capacity are necessary
conditions for effective service delivery. A t the central level,
weaknesses are found in the areas o f sector analysis, policy and
planning, and overall system monitoring. Coordination i s also
lacking between the MoEST and other central technical agencies,
including Teachers Service Commission, Kenya Examination Council,
and Kenya Institute o f Education, which i s reflected by irregular
information flows and communication across and within the agencies.
The management o f human resources, including both education
officers and teachers, and the management o f financial resources
are also weak at central level.
30. Kenya’s education system i s highly centralized.
Decentralization i s justifiable given the vast coverage o f the
education sector in terms o f the number o f students,
institutions, teachers, and other service providers. Weak
district-level and school-level capacity, however, i s a barrier to
the effective decentralization o f education service delivery.
These weak areas include limited local authorities’
vii
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involvement, district- and school-level planning and reporting,
school inspection, and teacher support as well as financial
management and other day-to-day functions for service delivery.
Policy Recommendations 3 1. Further development o f the
education system in Kenya requires a major investment in all the
critical areas including school access, retention and completion,
and education quality. Furthermore, the shift o f some o f the
household burden o f education costs to the public sector will also
put much pressure on the public resource allocation to the sector.
The implementation o f the “Free Primary Education” policy has
pushed the education recurrent expenditure up to 39 percent o f the
total government discretionary spending in 2002-2003. Given the
extremely high public spending on the education sector, improvement
o f efficiency will be the key for the overall sector strategy. The
efficiency improvement would benefit all the areas o f sector
development including expanding enrollment, improving quality, and
lowering the unit cost as well as strengthening the management o f
the system. The efficiency improvement in the allocation and
utilization o f resources i s particularly vital to the
sustainability o f the overall sector development.
32. The other crucial factor for sustained sector development i
s the balance between the sub-sectors. The enrollment bulge at
primary level, together with quality improvement at this level will
ripple through the system and lead to the increased pressure on the
expansion o f general secondary, technical and vocational education
and training, as well as tertiary education. Overall planning i s
needed well ahead to prepare for the most effective sector-wide
development strategies with close relation to Kenya’s poverty
reduction and economic recovery efforts.
33. The recommended policy directions are summarized in the
table below. Further operationalizing these policy directions with
sequencing and the design o f investment mechanisms would require
wide discussions among stakeholders under the development o f a
comprehensive sector strategic plan.
viii
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Table 1: Summary of Policy Directions
Targeting disadvantaged areas and population groups through both
supply-side and demand-side financing
Other imoortant measures: Efficient utilization o f classrooms
and other school facilities
view the staffing norm and redeployment o f teachers to ensure
adequate availability teachers in each school
Other imoortant measures: Continuation and supervision o f the
curriculum reform Strengthening in-service teacher training and
other teacher professional support Continuation and supervision o f
the provision o f teaching and learning materials at primary level,
targeted provision o f teaching and learning materials at secondary
level
Studies on school and classroom effectiveness including
students’ time on task, pedagogy, and assessment
efficienc ;of public performance-based teacher incentive schemes
resource allocation and utilization
Rationalize teacher compensation package, in relation to the
establishment o f
Evaluate and adjust teacher resource requirement under the
streamlined curriculum, together with alternative teaching methods
such as multi-grade teaching in small schools Establish a planning
mechanism for adequate resource allocation between primary, general
secondary and other sub-sectors
institutional arrangements monitoring and capacity for service
delivery
Strengthening central function o f sector analysis, policy and
planning, and system
Strengthening management capacity at the school level, including
the capacity o f School Management Committee at primary level and
that o f Board o f Governors at the secondary level
Other important measures: Strengthening district-level capacity
o f local system management, including school inspection, teacher
development, monitoring and reporting Decentralization and greater
involvement o f local authorities in education service
Equitable Expansion o f Enrollment
Targeting
34. Spending additional public resources on poor and underserved
districts and fewer resources on better-off and well-served
districts would not only be more equitable but also increase the
effectiveness o f public spending on education. Demand-side
financing targeting the lowest-income households will also achieve
greater education participation. Although every primary school-age
child has benefited from the
ix
-
“Free Primary Education” policy, there i s a need to put in
place clear and transparent mechanisms for exempting the poorest
students from user fees in secondary schools and make available to
them bursaries and scholarships that help their families pay for
the other costs o f schooling.
Efficient utilization of classrooms and other school
facilities
35. Expansion o f the system also calls for increased classroom
capacity. Although double-shifting use o f classrooms i s not
common in Kenya, after the primary enrollment increase this year,
many schools have successfully practiced double-shifting,
particularly for lower grades with shorter learning hours. This
practice has the potential to save substantial resources that would
have otherwise gone into new building.
Public-private partnership in education provision
36. Greater private sector participation in the education sector
i s inevitable for the future expansion o f education, particularly
at the secondary level, since a very large proportion o f public
resources has already been allocated to the education sector.
Furthermore, gains from efficiency improvement and lowered unit
cost will not be sufficient for further expansion o f coverage
given the currently extremely low secondary education enrollment.
Greater private sector participation will also introduce
competition into the sector, which i s a crucial internal mechanism
for efficiency enhancement. This would require review and necessary
revisions o f the regulatory framework with regard to private
school registration as well as quality assurance and supervision.
The policy focus should also be on relieving the constraints o f
private participation in education, for example, in areas o f
school financing and credit market access, and land acquisition
together with tax exemption and other incentives to make private
education more attractive to investors.
Quality and Internal Efficiency Impro vement
Efficient deployment of teachers to ensure adequate teacher
supply in schools
37. Pupil-teacher ratio at primary level has increased to 39:l
from 33:l after the implementation o f FPE in 2003. However,
teacher resources need to be more evenly distributed across schools
based on school enrollment. The staffing norm o f 1.025 teachers
for one class need be reviewed and better articulated so as to link
the number o f pupils directly to staffing needs. Deployment o f
teachers according to need wil l be crucial to improve efficiency
and education quality. Furthermore, there are large PTR differences
among zones within districts, and among districts within provinces.
Therefore, redeployment o f teachers i s not infeasible given that
within-district and within-province redeployments are relatively
low-cost and put less stress on redeployed teachers.
38. At the secondary level, although the overall teacher supply
i s high related to the secondary enrollment, attention should be
given to certain core subjects such as maths and science where
teacher deficiency s t i l l exists. Long-term teacher needs should
also be evaluated for the expansion at this level, particularly
with regard to the “rippling effect” from the great expansion o f
primary education following FPE.
Implementation and supervision of curriculum reform
39. The curriculum reform currently underway at each level i s
aimed at re-aligning the curriculum design and learning objectives
at each level. The examined subjects at the primary level have been
reduced from seven to five at secondary level from eight to seven.
The curriculum content has been revised to focus on teaching and
learning essential core ski l ls. Further monitoring and
supervision will be needed to examine the effects o f curriculum
reform on core course learning achievement as well as on lowering
the overall cost.
X
-
In-sewice teacher training and other teacher professional
support
40. The ongoing curriculum reform also requires a great deal o f
in-service training o f teachers and extensive teacher professional
support to let the teachers adapt to the new curriculum. This i s
particularly crucial at the secondary level as many teachers may
have to be re-trained to teach core courses within a streamlined
curriculum with fewer subjects. The roles o f Teacher Advisory
Centres will have be reevaluated and strengthened to provide needed
professional support to teachers.
Provision of teaching and learning materials
41. Until 2002, teacher salaries accounted for over 95 percent o
f the recurrent expenditure at the primary and secondary levels. As
a result, there were almost no public resources remaining for other
school inputs, such as learning materials and textbooks. In 2003,
the spending on school materials has increased to close to 20
percent o f the total primary-level recurrent expenditure, mainly
through the implementation o f the primary school grants for
textbooks and other teaching and leaming materials. At the
secondary level, to raise the effectiveness o f public spending on
education, the government will have to continue increasing the
total resources on instructional materials or reallocate resources
from teacher salaries to other recurrent inputs. To make the most o
f limited resources, the provision o f textbooks and other leaming
materials may have to be targeted to poor students at the secondary
level. Better-off students and communities who are able to pay for
textbooks and learning materials may have to continue to finance
these inputs themselves.
Improvement of school facilities
42. Improving the condition o f school facilities will include
new constructions and also emphasis on the maintenance o f school
facilities, which i s in general more cost-effective, particularly
under double- shifting use o f classrooms. Furthermore, since the
distribution o f classrooms relative to enrollment i s uneven
across districts, targeted provision o f development funds for
classroom construction and maintenance should be considered. In the
meantime, more populated areas also face the constraint o f the
availability o f land. Efficient utilization o f classrooms i s
particularly crucial to ensure education quality in these
areas.
Improvement of classroom effectiveness
43. There has not been much information so far in Kenya
regarding the process that educational inputs produce learning
outcome. The research findings in other developing countries have
shown that it i s one the most important determinants o f effective
learning and teaching. Further monitoring and analysis i s needed
in the areas o f classroom learning such as time on task, students’
grouping, attention to individual students; and effective teaching
including innovations in teaching methodology, collaborative lesson
planning, and peer support on pedagogy.
Efficiency Enhancement o f Resource Allocation and Utilization
Rationalization of teacher compensation with linkages to
performance-based incentive schemes
44. There i s need to further review and rationalize teachers’
overall compensation package, particularly with regard to the
pending teachers salary award granted in 1997198, i t s
sustainability and fiscal impact. More importantly, an incentive
scheme, in replace o f the uniform benefit package, should be
considered to link certain award directly to teacher’s
performance.
Evaluate and adjust teacher resource requirement
45. New staff norms need to be established based on the
enrollment at school level, so as to optimize teacher utilization
with enough teaching loads for each teaching position. Alternative
teaching modes, such as multi-grade teaching, should also be
experimented to increase the cost-effectiveness o f teaching
x i
-
and learning. This i s particularly relevant to schools o f
small sizes and located in sparsely-populated areas.
46. Curriculum-related overstaffing has been a distinctive
phenomenon at the secondary level. This situation should improve
with the ongoing implementation o f curriculum reform. However,
this may also require re-training o f many teachers because the
training they received to teach certain subjects may not be useful
for teaching core courses.
Resource allocation between sub-sectors
47. The effect o f nearly one mill ion increase o f primary
enrollment in 2003 on the demand for secondary education and other
levels o f education and training will be seen in a few years.
There i s immediate need to plan ahead.for the expected expansion.
Given an improved economic perspective, i t i s envisaged that
there will be increased resource demand at secondary and higher
levels. However, decisions on how much publicly-financed upper
general secondary education a country such as Kenya should provide
at i t s present stage o f economic development i s not an easy
one. Labor market considerations should play an important role in
determining the priorities for public financing. H o w to
efficiently allocate public resources among sub-sectors will be a
major challenge ahead for a balance growth o f the education sector
to meet the needs o f poverty reduction and economic recovery.
Strengthen Institutional Arrangements and Capacity for Service
Delivery 48. The f i rst area i s the management and planning
functions at the central level. The second area i s the
implementation capacity at the school and district levels. At the
central level, there i s need for (1) better coordination o f
central agencies including KIE, TSC, and KNEC for overall sector
policy and standards with (2) clear accountabilities and
communication mechanisms across various agencies. There i s also
need for (3) enhanced capacity o f monitoring and evaluation
function at the central level, which would firther require (4) an
improved EMIS and (5) better Research and Development (R&D)
functions at this level.
Strengthening institutional capacity should focus on two major
areas.
49. In accordance with GoK reforms o f the public sector,
particularly within the context o f the “Free Primary Education”
policy in the education sector, major administrative and resource
management functions have been devolved to district and school
levels. Therefore, a need exists to strengthen the capacity at this
level for the management o f service delivery and financial
accountability. The range of management issues at this level not
only covers student flow management, but may also include hiring
teachers, school-based teacher development, curriculum
implementation, school level financial management, and monitoring
and reporting.
50. Another important area i s to strengthen the role o f Local
Authorities in education service delivery. Local Authorities are
mostly held accountable for the development o f local communities.
They have the ultimate incentives to support the local primary and
secondary schools. Local authorities have also the most direct
contact with the local communities to communicate on public
policies. They also in general have better knowledge on local
conditions, thus have comparative advantage in ensuring the
efficiency o f resource allocation on the ground, including the
allocation o f teacher resources, as well as targeted demand-side
financing resources.
Sector Development Projections 5 1. between primary and
secondary levels can be shown using a projection model o f sector
planning.
The extent o f the efficiency gains in the sector, and the need
for a balanced resource allocation
xii
-
Enrollment projections 52. The enrollment projection at primary
level uses the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) as the target,
with primary cycle completion rate reaching 100 percent by 20 15.
This requires that a universal intake rate together with zero
dropout should start at the latest in 2007. The projection shows
that the "FPE bulge" works i t s way through the system. By 2012,
the last cohort o f "FPE bulge" will reach the last grade o f the
primary cycle. The system reaches a steady-state in 2013, with 100
percent Ne t Enrollment Ratio (NER), and 103 percent GER. Due to
the slow-down o f school age population growth, as projected by the
Kenya Central Bureau o f Statistics (CBS), the size o f the
enrollment grows slowly over time. Total primary enrollment i s
estimated at between 7.5 to 8 mil l ion during most o f the
subsequent years. Secondary level enrollment i s determined by the
Standard 8 enrollment o f the year before in the primary cycle,
together with the transition rate from the primary to secondary
cycle. We provide two cases o f enrollment projections (Fig.
11).
53. The f i rs t i s the baseline case, with the transition rate
constant at the current level o f 40 percent. I t should be noted
that even without increasing the transition rate, the gross
enrollment ratio will increase from 23 percent to 38 percent by
2015. This i s mainly due to the expansion o f the primary
education, producing more graduates from the primary cycle. The
second case has vast expansion o f secondary school enrollment,
with a transition rate o f 80 percent starting in 2004, together
with a gradual increase in GER from 23 percent in 2003 to 76
percent in 2015.
Cost projections 54. Cost projections focus on the policy
options for efficiency gains. A t the primary level, the
lower-bound scenario with maximal efficiency gains assumes that the
uneven distribution across districts and schools can be solved via
complete redeployment o f teachers. Classroom utilization can be
intensified though double-shift in areas where there are more than
40 pupils in one classroom on
Fig. 11: Enrollment Projections
8,050,000
7,050,000
6,050,000
1 5'050,000 'e 4,050,000
3,050,000
2,050,000
1,050,000
50,000
1.10
1 0 0
0.90
0.80
0.70 5 0 6 0 0
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
'"*""'pnw enrollment ISSSSSsecondaty enmllmt -Secondary
enmllmcnf
--+- P n w GER -See GER baseline Sm GER w/expansioi baseline wl
expansion
,
Fig. 12: Recurrent Cost and Financing of Primary schooling
...............
...................... ............................
450.0 4 , , ~ , , , , , , , , ,
--C Recurrent cost (lower bound) 4- Recurrent cost (upper
bound)
--t domestic recurrent resources
Fig. 13: Development Cost of Primary Education
70.0
............................................................
.........................................................
.......................................
10.04 , ~ , , , , , , , , ~ ,
-Development cost (lower bound) *Development cost (upper
bound)
... Xll l
-
average. Under this scenario, the national average wil l
determine the total cost at this level. In comparison, the upper
bound estimation assumes n o efficiency gains with complete
rigidity o f teacher redeployment and classroom utilization. I t i
s estimated that, between 2003 and 2015, the savings f rom
efficiency improvement can reach US$600 mi l l ion in recurrent
spending, and U S $ l 5 0 m i l l i on in development spending
(Fig. 12 and 13).
55. At secondary level, three scenarios are presented for the
comparison o f efficiency gains f rom better teacher utilization.
The baseline scenario i s based o n the constant primary to
secondary transition rate without
Fig. 14: Recurrent Cost and Financing of Secondary Education
...............................................................
8ooo T - - - - 700.0 4
...................................................................
efficiency improvement in teacher utilization. The projected
domestic resources would not be sufficient to sustain the system.
In contrast, Scenario 1 shows that under the same circumstances,
but increasing pupil-teacher ratio gradually to 35: 1, this system
can largely self-sustained. Scenario 2 further shows that, with
more efficient utilization o f teachers, about the same amount o f
financial resources required under the baseline scenario can
largely finance a much expanded secondary enrollment with 80
transition rate starting in year 2004 (Fig. 14).
Resource projections and allocation across subsectors 56. The
FY03104 recurrent budget for MoEST has reached the level o f 39
percent o f GoK's total discretionary budget. This share i s
unlikely to increase significantly in the future. The increase o f
the domestic resource to the sector will largely rely on the
economic and total budget envelope growth. If the resource
allocation across subsectors stays constant, and assuming a 3
percent growth rate in the subsequent years, there i s n o
financing gap at primary level. Indeed, there i s significant
surplus that could be reallocated for further measures o f quality
improvement. In the meantime, the efficiency improvement o f
teacher utilization i s critical at secondary level to ensure the
sustainability o f the development at this level. The sub-sector
balance o f public financing would also require to map out the
directions o f the development o f general secondary education in
relation to technical and vocational education and training, and
tertiary education, to meet the needs o f education and skills for
economic recovery and growth. In addition, mobil izing resources
from the private sector will be necessary to ensure continuous
sector expansion.
xiv
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Chapter 1 Macroeconomic Context and Demographic Trends
1.1 A country’s macroeconomic and demographic conditions are
important determinants o f many features o f the education and
training sector in that country. The main indicators o f these
conditions that will be discussed in this Chapter include national
income and growth potential, population growth and structure, and
public sector structure and performance. These factors contribute
to the potential o f as well as impose constraints upon the sector
development. In the meantime, the performance o f the education and
training sector also contributes to the overall economic
development by increasing productivity, reducing poverty, and
improving human welfare.
1.2 Kenya i s currently going through an important political and
economic transition period. On December 27, 2002, Kenyan voters
elected their first new president in 24 years, effectively ending
the political domination o f the party that has ruled Kenya since
independence. Faced with the tremendous challenge o f revitalizing
economic performance, the new Government i s quickly moving forward
to address govemance and economic management issues, and to
strengthen poverty reduction efforts. With i t s close links to
economic development, the education and training sector i s given
great priority in the overall economic recovery strategy.
Evolution of Gross Domestic Products 1.3 The f i rst decade
after independence witnessed a pattem o f high and sustained
economic growth followed by a period o f decline, and eventually
low cycles o f growth, especially in the 1990s (Table 1.1). Between
1963-1972, the economy recorded the highest growth rates, averaging
6.6 percent per annum. During 1990 to 2001, Kenya’s real GDP grew
at only an annual average rate o f 2.2 percent. The growth rate in
the 1990s was well below the neighboring countries o f Uganda (6.8
percent) and Tanzania (3.1 percent).
1.4 Kenya’s weak economic performance coupled with a population
growth rate averaging 2.7 percent during the 1990s, leading to a
contraction in real per capita income by an average o f 0.5 percent
per year. The peak o f current GDP per capita reached U S $450 in
1980, compared with U S $365 in 2001 and US$399 in 2002 (Table
1.2).
Table 1.1: Real GDP Growth 1980-2001
80-89 90-93 94-97 98-01 90-01 GDP 4.3 1.3 3.3 1 .o 2.2
Agriculture 3.5 -1.0 3.4 0.5 1 .o Industry 4.0 1.8 2.7 0.5
1.7
Services 5.0 3.3 4.3 1.5 3 .O Real GDP per capita 0.7 -1.5 1.6 1
.o -0.5 Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Table 1.2: Current GDP Per Capita and Population
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Current GDP Percapita 370 340 330 250 240 260 320 379 399 359 346
365 399 (US$)
23.4 24 24.7 25.3 26 26.7 27.4 28.0 28.8 29.5 30.2 30.8 31.5
Population (million) Source:1990-1996 from World Bank; 1997-2002
from Public Expenditure Review (Republic of Kenya, 2003).
1
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Fiscal Resources and Performance 1.5 Table 1.3 shows that
Government revenue collection peaked at 28.7 percent o f GDP in
1997/98 before falling gradually to 2 1.4 percent o f GDP by the
end o f the financial year 2000/0 1, partly due to the slowdown in
economic activity and an increase in tax evasion, and paoly to the
decline in tax rates. Meanwhile, the share o f extemal grants has
fallen steadily from 1.2 percent o f GDP in 1995/96 to 0.5 percent
o f GDP in 1999/2000; before improving to 2.8 percent o f GDP in
the year ending 2000/0 1.
Table 1.3: Government Revenue and Expenditure As Percentage of
GDP, 1997/1998 - 200212003 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01
2001/02 2002/03
Domestic revenue and grants 29.5 27.2 23.5 25.6 22.1 23.9
Domestic revenue 28.7 26.5 22.9 22.7 21.4 22.2 Grants 0.8 0.7
0.5 2.8 0.7 1.6 Expenditure and net lending 31.1 26.6 22.5 27.5
24.5 27.0 GDP at Market prices (Kshs. Million) 623,235 694,029
743,479 796,343 882,725 969,354
Exchange rate: Kshs per US $ 58.0 61.8 70.4 76.3 78.6 75.0
Source: PER 2003.
1.6 Adequate fiscal discipline has characterized the second half
o f the 1990s. In 1999/2000, the fiscal deficits tumed into
surplus. However, due to the slow expansion &at characterized
the economy over the last decade, expenditure has continued to
exceed budgeted targets. Although the deficit increased in 2001 due
to drought-related expenditures (Figure 1. l), in general the poor
expenditure and enforcement controls put much pressure on domestic
financing and the accumulation o f domestic arrears. Conversely,
where expenditure items as a percentage of total public spending
are concemed, recurrent expenditures have grown whereas the fiscal
adjustment fell on capital investment. The spending proportions o f
both wage and non-wage items have increased during 1995-2000.
Table 1.4: Expenditure Category and As Percentage o f GDP,
1997/1998 - 2002/2003 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02
2002/03*
KSh million Recurrent 160,279 165,33 1 156,535 198,941 200,807
227,055 Development and net Lending 34,686 32,010 18,584 33,980
24,953 38,795 Total 194,965 197,341 175,119 232,921 225,760
265,850
Recurrent 25.6 22.3 20.1 23.5 21.8 23.1
Total 31.1 26.6 22.5 27.5 24.5 27.0 Source: PER 2003.
*provisional.
% o f GDP
Development and net Lending 5.5 4.3 2.4 4.0 2.7 3.9
2
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Figure 1.1: Fiscal Deficit as Percent of GDP
.....................................................................................
I 1.5 I 1
0.5
0 -0.5
-1
$ -1.5 -2
’ -2.5 -3
.................
.................
................
..........
.........
.........
................. i ........ -3.5 1
.....................................................................................
1.7 In recent years, the government has sought to restructure
expenditure allocations across sectors to meet the requirements o f
basic functions (Table 1.5). In 2000, the government adopted a
medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), a three-year program
aligned with the Govemment’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
(PRSP) aimed at making spending more effective and more oriented to
expenditure categories with the highest potential to affect growth
and improve social sector performance. Human resource development,
including education and health, has been identified as one o f the
priorities areas for public spending in l ine with overall poverty
reduction strategies. Currently, the education sector has the
largest share in social spending with an allocation o f a quarter o
f the Govemment’s available resources. This represents around 6
percent o f Kenya GDP, compared with an average o f 3.5 percent for
Sub-Sahara African countries. Details o f education sector
financing will be discussed in Chapter 5.
Table 1.5: Share of Public Expenditures By Sector
Defense & Public Administration 22.3 21.2 31.6 17.8 26.4
28.8 33.3 36.6 General Administration 7.9 9.6 16.1 8.8 13.7 14.3
18.8 18.9 Extemal Affairs 1.3 1.6 1.8 1 .o 1.4 1.7 1.4 2 .o Public
Order and Safety 4.9 4.7 6.5 4.3 5.9 7.0 6.9 8.5 Defense 8.2 5.3
7.1 3.7 5.4 5.8 6.1 7.1
Social Services 27.1 24.7 32.5 23.1 31.3 33.5 29.2 33.7
Education 18.5 17.6 22.8 16.9 24.4 26.4 21.4 24.9 Health 5.0 4.8
7.2 4.7 5.3 5.6 6.7 7.2 Housing and Community Welfare 0.5 1.3 2.4
1.2 1.5 1.5 1 .o 1.5 Social Welfare 3.0 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Economic Services 21.9 15.9 18.0 9.4 13.9 15.4 17.0 21.1 General
Administration 3.7 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.7 2.8 6.1 6.2
Industry 12 2.4 1.3 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 Energy 13 2.7 1.7
2.2 1.1 1 .o 0.8 1.1 1.3 Road 3.1 3.2 5.4 2.8 4.1 4.9 4.1 5.2 Other
Transport & Communications 0.6 1 .o 1.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4
Other 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 1.9 Other Services 28.8 38.2 17.9
49.7 28.4 22.3 20.6 8.7 Debt Service 12.3 25.2 17.2 48.9 31.5 27.7
23.9 27.5 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: ”Economic Survey” various editions. * Provisional; * *
Preliminaly
Agriculture 7.4 5.5 4.7 2.8 4.8 4.3 3.6 4.5
3
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Population and Labor Force Evolution o f the Population 1.8
Kenya experienced a fast population growth since independence.
During the 1970s and 1980s Kenya had one o f the fastest-growing
populations in the world. The 1979 census revealed an astonishing
annual growth rate o f 4.1 percent. Ten years later the census
estimated that the rate had slowed to a st i l l - rapid 3.3
percent. The results o f the 1999 population census put Kenya's
population at 28.7 million, representing an annual average o f 2.5
percent o f the growth rate. The adult HIV/AIDS prevalence rate i s
high in Kenya. After peaking at 14 percent in 1998, it i s
estimated at 10 percent currently. The increased mortality rate o f
adults has also contributed to the slowing growth and increasing
dependency ratio o f Kenyan population.
1.9 Some o f the factors that explain the key issues and
challenges facing the education sector can be seen in the country's
basic demographic indicators. Changes in the demographic profile
can dictate the trend o f investments made in the provision o f
education. For example, the growth o f the school-age population
and the variation in the population density i s critical in
determining the cost-effectiveness o f the distribution o f
resources for education service provisions. Where the population
density i s low, the per capita cost o f service provisions can be
relatively high and vice versa. However, efficiency i s not the
only concern for public investment, in many cases, social equity i
s vital to ensuring the overall sustainability o f economic
development. As poor economic conditions are often observed in
sparsely- populated areas, the trade-off between efficiency and
equity will be faced by many public policies.
1.10 Table 1.6 below illustrates the age composition o f the
population according to the 1999 population census. The country's
population distribution i s highly skewed towards the youth with
the population between 0-19 years accounting for about 57 percent o
f the total population. The interpretation suggests a high
dependency ratio that will increasingly demand a corresponding r
ise in the provision o f social services and employment
opportunities.
Table 1.6: Population by Gender and Age Str