Education 795 Class Notes P-Values, Partial Correlation, Multi-Collinearity Note set 4.

Education 795 Class Notes

P-Values, Partial Correlation, Multi-Collinearity

Note set 4

Today’s Agenda

Announcements (ours and yours)

Q/A?

Leveraging what we already know

Partial Correlation and Multi-Collinearity

P-Values

“p-value refers to the probability of the evidence having arisen as a result of sampling error given that the null hypothesis is true” (Pedhazur & Pedhazure, 1991)

What is inherently wrong the p-values?

Why do we use them?

P-Values

“Even though I am very critical of statistical inference… I shall probably continue to pay homage to “tests of significance” in the papers I submit to psychological journals. My rationale for this admitted hypocrisy is straightforward: until the rules of the science game are changed, one must abide by at least some of the old rules, or drop out of the game” (Mahoney, 1976, p. xiii)

What to do?

“Perhaps p values are like mosquitos. They have an evolutionary niche somewhere and no amount of scratching, swatting, or spraying will dislodge them” (Campbell, 1982, p 698)

Statistical Significance vs. Practical Significance

We should refrain from what Tukey calls “statistical sanctification.” Concern with practical significance is addressed through effect sizes or relational magnitudes (betas in regression).

“A difference is a difference only if it makes a difference” (Huff, 1954, p. 58)

Introduction to Effect Size

Effect sizes imply strength of meaningfulness or importance

General Rule set forth by Cohen (1988) for small, medium, large ES

We will address how effect sizes are computed later in the course

Transition Back to Multiple Regression

1. Multiple predictors typically yield better technical solutions (e.g., higher R2)

2. Multiple predictors provide opportunities to test more realistic models (e.g., why is nothing as simple as it should be?)

3. Multiple regression models allow for an examination of more complex research hypotheses than is possible with simple regression / correlation approaches

Regression

Raw score depiction:

where each b:is the unique and independent contribution of that predictor to the modelfor quantitative IVs, the expected direction and amount of change in the DV for each unit change in the IV, holding all other IVs constantFor dichotomous IVs, the direction and amount of group mean difference on DV, holding all other IVs constant

Revisit ’s

Example: Dependent Variable: Promote Racial UnderstandingIndependent Variable: Sex, Race

sex = rsex,promote if sex and race are not correlated. These are population based estimates and they are “effect sizes” because we can compare relative strength of predictors in the model

In the Venn diagram on the following slide, note X1 and X2 are not correlated but X2 and X3 are

Venn Diagram Depiction

CorrelationRegression Coefficients

Warning

Pedhazur believes that the topics of partial correlations and semi-partial correlations can be confusing and lead to misinterpretations of regression coefficients. Why talk about them?

Awareness and enough knowledge to evaluate research where partials are used

Partial Correlations

A variation on the idea of residualization (removal of the predictable part of y from y)

First-order partial correlations:

correlation of variable 1 and 2 partialling variable 3 from 1 and 2

Plug and Chugr Quiz Exam Speed Motiv

Quiz 1.00

Exam .40 1.00

Speed .35 .45 1.00

Motiv .25 .30 .15 1.00

1. What is the correlation between quiz and exam score, controllingfor test taking speed?

2. What is the correlation between exam score and motivation, controlling for test taking speed?

Semi-Partial Correlations

r1(2.3)=correlation of variables 1 and 2 after having partialed variable 3 only from variable 2. (semi-partial)

VS

r12.3=correlation of variables 1 and 2 after having partialed variable 3 from both variable 1 and variable 2 (partial)

Before Jumping Into Regression

Examine the data using common-sense (e.g., are the data appropriate for producing interpretable correlation coefficients?) as well as standard diagnostic procedures

Review the r among the predictors for collinearity problems

Multicollinearity

Multicollinearity refers to correlations among the independent variables only

Multicollinearity is measured by the tolerance statistic, defined as 1 – R2 predicting each predictor using all other predictors

(values close to 1 are better, values close to 0 are bad)

Excessive collinearity (even singularity – perfect correlation between two or more IVs) suggests that predictors have extensive overlaps, and we may need to be selective in picking predictors or combining them (through factor analytic techniques)

Dangers

Multicollinearity has adverse effects on regression analysis

High multicollinearity leads to a reduction in the magnitude of the b’s

High multicollinearity leads to inflated se’s, reducing the t-ratios for the coefficients

Solutions

Be selective in choosing variables that are related

Combine like variables into an index using scales or ‘factor analysis’ which we will talk about soon

Suppressors

When a partial correlation is larger than the original r, it is considered to be the result of a suppressor effect

Suppressor variables effectively mask (suppress) the relationship between other variables

This effect occurs when there is an unbalanced mix of +/- correlations between the DV and the IVs

Project Activity

Dataset: Chose a dataset and run a multiple regression

Dependent variable: SATC=SATM+SATVIndependent variables: sex, family income,

mother’s education and father’s education

Use syntax to get the tolerance statistic

Rerun the regression summing mothers and fathers education into one variable. Compare the tolerance statisticfor mothers and fathers education with the summed index.

For Next Week

Read Pedhazur Ch 10 p211-216

Read Pedhazur Ch 14 p304-310

Read Pedhazur Ch 19 p464-466

Read Pedhazur Ch 21 p545-558, p567-579