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MCI (P) 194/11/2012 Ref No: RM2013_0192 1 of 15
Regional Market Focus
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
7 October 2013
Thailand
Bangkok Metro – Company Update Recommendation: SELL Previous close: Bt1.13 Fair value: Bt0.66
BMCL board approved a plan to issue up to 8,550mn new shares, bringing its registered share capital to 20,500mn.
Up to 2,000mn new shares will be offered to existing shareholders in a rights issue at a ratio of one new share for 5.975 existing shared held at Bt1 each with the stock scheduled to trade XR on Nov 14, 2013. The remaining 6,550mn shares will be offered in the private placement as part of debt-to-equity swap.
Larger capital base would enable BMCL to withstand losses until it returns to profitability after the opening of the purple line extension in CY16.
We revise downwards our CY14 loss forecast for BMCL to Bt497mn. We maintain a ‘SELL’ call on BMCL with a CY14 DCF-based target price of Bt0.66/share.
Siam Commercial Bank – Company Preview Recommendation: BUY Previous close: Bt154 Fair value: Bt191
We expect SCB to report 3QCY13 net profit of Bt13bn, flat q-q but up 26% y-y.
The forecast assumes loan growth momentum would continue in 3QCY13 but at a slower pace.
SCB would increase its focus on SMEs in a bid to boost loans, deposits and fee income.
No impact from rising household debt levels has been felt to date.
We keep a ‘BUY’ call on SCB but we slash our target price to Bt191/share.
Regional Market Focus
7 October 2013
2 of 15
Hong Kong
Report China Communications Services Corporation – To Regain High Growth and ratings of “Accumulate” Rating: Accumulate Closing price: HK$4.81 Target price: HK$5.10
In the first half of 2013, CCS saw net profit of 1.24 billion yuan, only up 1.7% on a YoY basis, with EPS at 0.18 yuan. This mainly resulted from the increase in investment in R & D campaign for LTE, Smart City and some non-operational expenses relating to stock appreciation rights, leading to that net profit margin narrowed by 0.3 percentage point to 3.8%. Moreover, the cash flow was also constantly under pressures.
In view of launching of large-scale 4G LTE construction, the development of overseas turnkey projects and the increase in orders, we take more optimistic attitude towards its business expansion in the second half of 2013. However, due to the increase in R & D cost and marketing cost, profit margins are still expected to be pressured, but they will maintain relative stable level.
The investment in 4G will lead to an acceleration of domestic businesses, and the overseas businesses are also expected to expand. It is expected that the Company will witness revenue of 69.2 billion yuan in 2013 and 78.6 billion yuan in 2014 respectively, while net profit will reach 2.65 billion yuan and 3.01 billion yuan, with YoY growth rate of 8.3% and 13.7% respectively and EPS of 0.38 and 0.44 yuan respectively.
The re-expansion of businesses is expected to help the Company return to high-speed growth. By referring to the valuation pivot from 2010 to 2011, PE ratio valuation of 10.6 times is made under corresponding EPS of 2013 and the 12-month target price will be HKD 5.1. We give it “Accumulate” rating.
Regional Market Focus
7 October 2013
3 of 15
Strategy
SECTOR/STRATEGY REPORTS: - Sector Reports: Commodities,18 Sep / Banking, 9 Sep / Telecommunications, 9 Sep / Offshore & Marine, 26 Aug - Country Strategy: S’pore, 20 Sep / China & HK 5 July / Thai, 17 Jun - Macro Trader: 9 Sep, Update
Morning Commentary
STI: -0.21% to 3138.1 KLCI: +0.29% to 1776.6 JCI: -0.66% to 4389.4 SET: -0.10% to 1427.7 HSI: -0.33% to 23138 HSCEI: +0.03% to 10517 Nifty: -0.04% to 5907.3 ASX200: -0.51% to 5208 Nikkei: -0.94% to 14024 S&P500: +0.71% to 1690.5 MARKET OUTLOOK: Please register for today’s 11.15am Market Outlook webinar by clicking the link at the top of this Morning Note or go to www.poems.com.sg > Weekly Webinar Market Call by Phillip Research In today’s webinar we give our assessment of the on-going debt ceiling, outlook for the markets as well as feature M1’s compelling earnings growth story. (PhillipCFDs and ETFs for trading the market outlook can be found in the webinar slides or the Macro Trade report below. PhillipUT Wrap Account offers tactical asset allocation of unit trusts without front loading sales charge.)
Macro Data
Japan: Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Friday said he is confident about the effects of the aggressive easy policy decided in April and noted that Japan's economy is moving toward the path of achieving the 2% price stability target. Malaysia logged a trade surplus of MYR 7.11 billion in August, more than double of its previous month and its highest point in five months, as exports surged 12.4% y/y. Imports rose 14.1% in August from a year earlier to MYR 55.79 billion, mainly driven by intermediate and capital goods. The improved trade balance eased concerns that Malaysia’s current account could slip into deficit this year. India: The seasonally-adjusted HSBC India purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for services fell to 44.6 in September from August’s 47.6, its lowest since April 2009. The further contraction indicates that the economy’s biggest sector has not yet bottomed out. Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
http://internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/EconomicPulse/SG/strategy20130920.pdf
Regional Market Focus
7 October 2013
4 of 15
Singapore The benchmark STI closed lower at 3,138.08 (-0.21%). The 4.6bn shares traded
were worth S$1.2n in value. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined -4.31% while the FTSE ST Small Cap
Index declined -4.11%. The top active stocks were Mapletree Logistics Trust (-1.42%), Innopac (-52.90%), UOB (-0.15%), SingTel (unchanged) and CapitaLand (-0.65%).
We peg key near term support at 3,100 levels. Top Picks are DBS (Accumulate, TP: S$17.50), SingTel (Accumulate, TP:
S$3.99) and Keppel Corp (Accumulate, TP: S$12.25). Deep Value Plays are Amara (Buy, TP: S$0.74), Boustead (Buy, TP: S$1.94) and Courts (Buy, TP: S$1.14). Close +/- % +/-
FSSTI 3138.08 -6.71 -0.21P/E (x) 12.92P/Bv (x) 1.38
3.30Dividend Yield
STRAITS TIMES INDEX
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
10/8 1/8 4/8 7/8
Source: Bloomberg
Thailand Thai stocks traded to the downside in the morning last Fri amid fears of the
looming US debt ceiling deadline but earlier losses were pared late in the session after the Thai Constitutional Court ruled the government’s fiscal 2014 budget bill was constitutional. The composite SET index finished the session down 0.1% last Fri.
The US government shutdown and looming debt ceiling would remain the focus of the global stock markets. Even though expectations are that US lawmakers will finally strike a deal to raise the debt limit, the prolonged US government shutdown with no signs of progress in resolving the US budget standoff could reflect uncertainty over the fate of the debt ceiling, a factor that would put a cap on the market’s upside potential with risk to the downside.
In Thai politics, all eyes will be on the Bt2trn infrastructure loan bill, which is tabled for the first-reading debate in the Senate today. Overall we think political temperature looks set to rise both at home and abroad.
Wild intraday swings could be in store for Thai stocks amid uncertainties. This week we expect the SET index to trade in a range of 1380-1470 points. Support for the main index today is seen at 1410 points.
Today we peg resistance for the SET index at 1440-1450 points and support at 1410-1400 points.
Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1427.72 -1.46 -0.10P/E (x) 15.68P/Bv (x) 2.25
3.05Dividend Yield
STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
10/8 1/8 4/8 7/8
Source: Bloomberg
Indonesia
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closed lower on Friday (04/10), as stock markets in Asia fell on concern about political uncertainties in the US. The JCI slipped 29.296 points, or 0.66%, to 4,389.347. Seven of the 9 major stock sectors finished in negative territory on Friday, with basic industry sector dropped 1.79%, agriculture sector fell 1.50%, and mining sector trimmed 1.36%. The LQ45 index shed 5.586 points, or 0.76%, at 732.907. In Asia, most stock indexes declined Friday (04/10), weighed by rising political uncertainties in the US as the mid-October deadline to raise its debt ceiling loomed, risking potential US default on its debts. Decliners outran gainers 161 to 81 Friday on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, where regular market volume stood at 2.71 billion shares worth IDR 3.33 trillion. Foreign investors posted net sale of IDR 285.91 billion.
Indonesian stocks will likely move moderately higher today, following positive closes on US markets on Friday, although concerns about US debt ceiling still weighed on sentiments. We expect the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) to move moderately higher today, with support and resistance at 4,352 and 4,431, respectively
Close +/- % +/-JCI Index 4389.35 -29.30 -0.66P/E (x) 18.15P/Bv (x) 2.58
2.27Dividend Yield
JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX
3400
3900
4400
4900
5400
10/8 1/8 4/8 7/8
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Market Focus
7 October 2013
5 of 15
Sri Lanka The Colombo bourse ended the trading day on an upbeat sentiment, resulting in
the indices to close within the positive terrain. The benchmark ASPI settled at 5,837.95 gaining 23.15 points or 0.40%, this was the highest value recorded after 27th August 2013 (5,923.34); during the past three trading days the bourse gained nearly 1%. The S&P SL20 too closed on the positive side gaining 11.08 points or 0.34% to close the day at 3,231.79. The total market capitalization leaped to LKR 2.43Tn, while extending the year to date gain to 12.00%. The total turnover for the day amounted to record LKR 622.17Mn, indicating a dip of 26.0% as against its previously recorded. Under the sectorial round-up, Investment Trusts (INV) sector dominated the list providing LKR 109.28Mn. Bank Finance & Insurance (BFI) sector stood next in line providing LKR 92.97Mn. Shares totaling up to 80.93Mn changed hands during the day, resulting in a drop of 27.79% compared to the previous trading day. Foreign investors were unable to maintain their bullish stance for the 12th consecutive trading day, resulting in a net foreign outflow of LKR 27.51Mn. Foreign selling for the day amounted to LKR 113.76Mn and buying amounted to LKR 86.25Mn.
Close +/- % +/-CSEALL Index 5837.95 23.15 0.40P/E (x) 11.83P/Bv (x) 1.58
2.76
Dividend Yield
SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
10/8 1/8 4/8 7/8
Source: Bloomberg
Australia The Australian share market on Friday closed lower as investors become
increasingly concerned that the budget impasse in the United States may lead to the US defaulting on its debts. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index dropped 26.9 points, or 0.51 per cent, to 5,208 points.
Today (07/10/2013), the Australian market looks set to open higher following gains on Wall Street despite the US government's partial shutdown that has prevented the releaseof economic data.
In economic news on Monday, the Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association performance of construction index (PCI) for September is due out, as is the ANZ job advertisements series for the same month.
No major equities news is expected. Close +/- % +/-S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 5208.02 -26.87 -0.51P/E (x) 22.55P/Bv (x) 2.00
5.72
STANDARD & POORS/ ASX 200 INDEX
Dividend Yield
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
10/8 1/8 4/8 7/8
Source: Bloomberg
Hong Kong HSI lost 75 points or 0.33% to 23,138. CEI gained 2 points to 10,517. Trading
volume had not much change with HKD54.56 billion. HK market was weak following the third day shutdown of U.S. government and
weak U.S. market. For last week, HSI dropped 68 points. China Mobile (941.HK) slumped 2.9% and led HSI down due to the rumor that
the settlement fee from other two telecom operators would be reduced. Macau gambling sector under-performed after surge in previous day. Galaxy Ent
(27.HK) and SJM Holdings (880.HK) lost 3.1% and 2% respectively. CITIC Pacific (267.HK) surged 9.2% after announced 2 production lines of a iron
ore mine project in Australia are running well. Technically, HSI failed retain at 10-MA level. We stay biased for an eventual
break above 10-MA and retest 23,554 high. The next resistance and support for HSI are 23,554 and 23,000 respectively.
Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 23138.54 -75.86 -0.33P/E (x) 10.72P/Bv (x) 1.46
3.32Dividend Yield
HANG SENG INDEX
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
22000
23000
24000
25000
10/8 1/8 4/8 7/8
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Market Focus
7 October 2013
6 of 15
Market News
US The world’s biggest investors are finding U.S. government bonds becoming safer, not more risky, as the deadline to avoid the first
American default approaches. The yield on 10-year U.S. bonds dropped to a two-month low of 2.58 percent on Oct. 3, after Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said the government won’t be able to pay its debts in 14 days unless Congress raises the $16.7 trillion borrowing ceiling. While short-term bill rates and the cost to insure against a default have risen, volatility in Treasuries has fallen, a sign that investor confidence in the Federal Reserve is outweighing worries over the budget battle among U.S. political leaders. (Source: Bloomberg)
Futures (SPA) on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell and the yen climbed against the dollar as U.S. lawmakers continued to scrap over raising the debt limit and the government shutdown. Crude oil declined while gold rallied. S&P 500 Index futures sank 0.5 percent by 10:01 a.m. in Tokyo after the gauge rose 0.7 percent Oct. 4, snapping a two-day drop. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.1 percent as indexes from Japan to Australia swung between gains and losses. Japan’s currency strengthened 0.3 percent, extending last week’s 0.8 percent advance. Malaysia’s ringgit climbed a fifth day and Treasuries rose. (Source: Bloomberg)
The rising American economy isn’t lifting all boats -- and may even sink some. As the U.S. looks set to accelerate, economists from Bank of America Corp. to Morgan Stanley predict it will provide less oomph abroad than it once did, partly because of changes wrought by the financial crisis and recession. The new-look America is focused on greater demand and production at home and taps more of its own energy, paring the need to buy overseas in a trend reflected by the smallest current-account deficit since 1999. A healthier U.S. even could come at the expense of emerging markets if it turns into more of a competitor than consumer by boosting manufacturing. (Source: Bloomberg)
Singapore Shares of Blumont Group and Asiasons Capital plunged on Monday after they resumed trading following the lifting of their trading
suspension by the Singapore Exchange. Blumont shares opened at 40 cents before trading lower to 18 cents, down 70 cents or almost 80 per cent from its pre-suspension levels last week. Blumont closed on Thursday at S$2.02, but its stock price started plunging on Friday, leading the local bourse to issue it a query and subsequently suspend its trading activity. Investment firm Asiasons opened at 80 cents before heading lower to trade around 20 cents a share, down 84 cents, or 81 per cent. (Source: Bloomberg)
LionGold Corp and Asiasons Capital on Monday requested a halt in the trading of their shares, even though the Singapore Exchange had lifted their suspension, albeit with restrictions. On Sunday, the SGX said it would lift the suspension of Asiasons Capital, Blumont Group and LionGold Corp Ltd as well as their related securities on Monday, at 8.30am. The lifting came with estrictions which include curbs against short-selling and taking on new contra positions. SGX said yesterday that it would continue to "monitor the trading of those stocks and review circumstances in due course" to end the restrictions. (Source: Bloomberg)
Singapore Exchange (SGX) will allow the three volatile counters it had suspended to trade today - but with curbs. The shares of Asiasons Capital, Blumont Group and LionGold Corp will resume trading with restrictions against short-selling and taking on new contra positions, according to a regulatory announcement issued by the exchange yesterday. The move is expected to offer an escape route, albeit a potentially costly one, for traders who had open positions on the affected stocks after Friday's surprise intervention by SGX in suspending the counters, and possibly pave the way towards normalised trading. "It's a good move," one trader said. (Source: Bloomberg)
Thailand The Constitution Court last Fri ruled that the government’s fiscal 2014 budget bill is constitutional. The court judges voted 8-0 that the
budget bill’s Sections 27 and 28 allocating budgets for the Office of the Judiciary, the Office of the Administrative Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission are not in violation of Article 168 of the charter. (Source: Bangkok Post)
The government's approval ratings dropped in the third quarter of the year to its lowest level in two years, according to a quarterly survey of the government’s performance released by E-Saan Poll last Friday. Despite its falling popularity, most respondents would still vote for the ruling Pheu Thai Party in the next election. The government received lower grades for its performance in the third quarter after the country was hit by drought and floods. Even though the Yingluck Shinawatra administration had successfully acted against drug problems, it failed to resolve economic problems, particularly the slowdown in the economy and the high costs of living, and therefore it received lower grades for these criteria than in the previous two quarters. (Source: Bangkok Post)
With no end to the partial US government shutdown in sight, the Export-Import Bank of Thailand urged Thai exporters and importers to hedge against possible risks as it remained difficult to assess the potential impact for the time being. If the US misses debt ceiling deadline on Oct 17, it could cause a rout in global financial markets. (Source: Krungthep Turakij)
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said department stores and retailers had negotiated with SME factories to cut product prices by 10%-20% as part of year-end promotional campaigns to boost New Year spending. (Source: Daily News)
Regional Market Focus
7 October 2013
7 of 15
Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) agreed to extend a bilateral currency swap agreement (BCSA) worth IDR
175 trillion (approx. USD 15.2 billion) value. BI Governor said this cooperation reflects the regional commitment in facing global uncertainties and will positively contribute in maintaining the macroeconomic stability and domestic finance. The BCSA is valid for three years and can be further extended by mutual consent from both central banks. The bilateral swap is aimed at maintaining the domestic foreign exchange liquidity when there is pressure on the financial market. A BI Deputy Governor said that in addition to China, BI might also have bilateral swap agreements with other countries. (Source: Tempo)
Indonesia’s Tourism and Creative Economy Minister projects that the amount of foreign tourists from Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) nations will increase by ten to 16 percent in two years. There are currently around 350 million tourists per year traveling among APEC nations. The number is likely to increase up to 38 million to 57 million more if there were more access to visas and if immigration process at airports is made easier. If the number of tourists from APEC countries increases, there would be more job opportunities for up to 2.6 million people. Tourism revenues can also increase to around USD 62 billion to USD 89 billion in all of ASEAN nations. (Source: Tempo)
Sri Lanka Consumer prices in Sri Lanka's urban centres rose 9.7 percent in the 12-month to September slowing from 9.9 percent in August. The
CAL Urban Price Index fell 1.8 percent in the month with food prices falling. Sri Lanka's Colombo Consumer Price Index, compiled by the state statistics office also eased in September to 6.2 percent in September from 6.3 percent in August. The CAL Urban Index collects data from around the country and tracks prices from supermarket chains. It covers 54 percent of urban households earning above 80,000 rupees a month. (Source: lankabusinessonline.com)
Australia The love affair between Australian miners and the Toronto Stock Exchange appears to be well and truly over, with the bleak conditions in
the market driving companies to drop their dual listings and return to their home bourse. Several Australian miners have either left or are preparing to leave Toronto amid complaints about the low levels of investor interest in the resources sector, high levels of compliance, the steep cost of maintaining a listing and the failure of companies to attract the share price re-rating they had expected. The TSX for years ranked as the largest single exchange for mining ventures and acted as a major gateway for Australian-based companies looking to tap into the North American capital pool. The market also attracted Australian companies that believed they would enjoy better valuations in the eyes of Canadian and American investors. However, executives told The Australian that investors in North America were increasingly uninterested in resource stocks. (Source: The Australian)
Bunnings managing director John Gillam watches the weather as much as any farmer, with hardware sales drying up whenever the heavens open. "There's 17 weekends between us and Christmas. If it rains on every one of those weekends, I'm not going to be reporting good numbers in February," he says. "You don't garden if it's wet, you don't resurface your deck, you don't paint -- people don't like to say they're weather-dependent, but we are. First and second-quarter sales bounce around a lot depending on the weather." Parent company Wesfarmers is due to report first-quarter sales numbers for its retail businesses on October 24, and while Mr Gillam can't give any direct guidance on the numbers, he indicates that sales growth has picked up from last year thanks to a low comparison from the same quarter last year. "Last year, the first quarter was our lowest-growth quarter for the year with comparable growth of 2.5 per cent, so that might be something to keep in mind for when first-quarter sales come out," he says. (Source: The Australian)
Corruption and bribery allegations could prove a drag on the share price of construction giant Leighton "for years", prominent corporate law expert Ian Ramsay warned yesterday. Leighton shares had a horror Thursday and Friday, with the share price plunging 15 per cent -- wiping $1 billion off the market capitalisation of the $6bn company -- after Fairfax Media published allegations suggesting that corruption at the firm went beyond two already known instances in Indonesia and Iraq and were known by then Leighton boss Wal King. Mr King strenuously denies the allegations and is demanding an apology from Fairfax Media. In February last year, the company announced it had contacted the Australian Federal Police over a possible "breach of ethics" surrounding work on $1.2bn worth of Iraqi oil construction projects awarded during 2010 and 2011, while the company had been looking into a matter relating to a barge-building project in Indonesia. Plaintiff law firm Maurice Blackburn has indicated it is considering extending its existing class action over the disclosure of writedowns on troubled Australian projects. (Source: The Australian)
Regional Market Focus
7 October 2013
8 of 15
Hong Kong Options traders are paying more to protect against swings in Sohu.com Inc. (SOHU) relative to rival Qihoo 360 Technology Co. (QIHU) for
the first time since July on concern a merger will fail to boost its search engine market share. Implied volatility, the key gauge of options prices, for one-month contracts closest to Sohu’s shares exceeded that for Qihoo last week for the first time since July 18, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Sohu shares have rallied 34 percent since Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700)invested in Sohu’s search unit on Sept. 16. The Bloomberg China-US Equity Index (HSCEI)of the most-traded Chinese shares in the U.S. rallied 2.6 percent last week. Sohu, a Beijing-based Internet company, sold a 36.5 percent stake in its subsidiary Sogou to Tencent for $448 million in order to boost traffic for the third-biggest search engine in the country. Sogou accounted for 5.5 percent of online queries in China in the first quarter, lagging behind Baidu Inc (BIDU)’s 82 percent market share and Qihoo 360 Technology Co.’s 9 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “It’ll take time for Sohu’s Sogou to strengthen its competitiveness versus bigger rivals like Qihoo even with the investment from Tencent,” Tian X Hou, the founder of T. H. Capital LLC, a research firm focusing on Chinese Internet companies, said in a telephone interview from New York Oct. 4. “The options indicated a bigger risk for Sohu’s share price to decline than Qihoo.” Implied volatility for one-month options closest to Sohu’s shares has jumped 43 percent from a Aug. 26 low to 56.3 on Oct. 4, data compiled by Bloomberg show. During that time, implied volatility for Qihoo has dropped 3.8 percent to 56.2. (Source: Bloomberg)
China and Taiwan should resolve their long-standing political disagreements, Chinese President Xi Jinping said yesterday, as he seeks to address a six-decade division after forging closer economic ties. China is willing to hold talks with Taiwan on an equal basis under the “One China” principle, Xi said in a meeting with Taiwanese envoy Vincent Siew while the two were attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bali, Indonesia, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. “We cannot hand those problems down from generation to generation,” Xi said, according to Xinhua. China’s closer economic ties with Taiwan helped boost the island’s growth as tourist spending surged and trade increased under President Ma Ying-jeou’s administration. Ma must balance improved relations with concerns that the mainland would dominate its smaller neighbor. “They want to remind the Taiwanese that they can’t deepen economic ties without political negotiations forever,” Jean-Pierre Cabestan, political science professor at Hong Kong Baptist University, said by telephone. “It shows a bit of a gentle impatience.” Civil groups across the Taiwan Strait will hold the first peace forum Oct. 11 to 12 in Shanghai, an initiative that is supported by the Chinese government, which sees it as paving the way for furthering formal political talks. Siew, a former Taiwan vice president who is representing Ma at the APEC meeting, told reporters yesterday in Bali that his discussion with Xi focused on economic and trade cooperation and regional integration. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry also met with Siew in Bali to discuss steps both sides are taking to advance “substantive unofficial relations” between the U.S. and Taiwan, according to a separate State Department statement. (Source: Bloomberg)
Hong Kong must follow its constitution in implementing democratic reforms, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, who leads the city while it moves toward universal suffrage. Political reforms must follow the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, and the decisions of China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee, Leung said Xi told him at a meeting the two had while attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bali,Indonesia. China has pledged to introduce universal suffrage to Hong Kong by 2017, while Leung and his two predecessors were chosen by a committee. The city’s government has yet to reveal details of the 2017 election and pro-democracy activists have vowed to occupy the financial district next year if the proposals fall short of international standards. The Basic Law states that candidates for the chief executive position have to be nominated by a “broadly representative” committee, Zhang Xiaoming, director of China’s Liaison Office in Hong Kong, wrote last month in an open letter to Civic Party leader Alan Leong. Zhang’s comments were the clearest China had made in rejecting activists’ demands for an open nomination. Hugo Swire, a minister in the U.K.’s Foreign Office, last month wrote in the South China Morning Post that his country offers its support, and that it is important that the city’s people have a “genuine choice.” China, which took back sovereignty over Hong Kong from the U.K. in 1997, said the city doesn’t need assistance from British or any other foreign governments to bring in universal suffrage. Xi today affirmed the Hong Kong government’s work, Leung said, and he briefed Xi on its plans to boost economic development by forging closer domestic and international ties. (Source: Bloomberg)
Regional Market Focus
7 October 2013
9 of 15
80.06 -0.08% 286.45 +0.32%
109.41 +0.82% 2.628 -0.02%
1,310.80 +0.28% 15,072.58 +0.51%
544.68 -0.02% MSCI SEA 835.26 -0.04%
2,928.31 +0.90% 53.5
Source: Bloomberg
MSCI Asia x-Japan
JPM Global Composite PMI SA
ThomReuters/JefferiesCRB
DJI
Crude oil, Brent (US$/bbl) US Treasury 10yr Yield
Euro Stoxx 50
Dollar Index
Gold (US$/Oz)
1.201.401.601.802.002.202.402.602.803.003.20
Oct-1
2
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-13
Sep-13
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
Oct-1
2
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-13
Sep-13
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
Oct-1
2
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-13
Sep-13
2,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,5002,6002,7002,800
Oct-1
2
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-13
Sep-13
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
Oct-1
2
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-13
Sep-13
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
Oct-1
2
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-13
Sep-13
78
80
82
84
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-13
Apr-1
3
Ma
y-13
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
260
280
300
320
340
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-13
Apr-1
3
Ma
y-13
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
90
100
110
120
130
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
Oct-1
2
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Mar-1
3
Apr-1
3
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-1
3
Aug-13
Sep-13
Regional Market Focus
7 October 2013
10 of 15
Valuations of Major Regional Markets
14.6 1.38
14.2 2.25
11.1 1.46
15.1 2.58
15.0 2.00
Source: Bloomberg
Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index, P/B (X)
Straits Times Index, Forward P/E (X)
Hang Seng Index, Forward P/E (X)
Straits Times Index, P/B (X)
Stock Exchange of Thailand, Forward P/E (X) Stock Exchange of Thailand, P/B (X)
Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index,
Hang Seng Index, P/B (X)
S&P/ASX 200 Index, Forward P/E (X) S&P/ASX 200 Index, P/B (X)
10
12
14
16
18
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
8
10
12
14
16
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
1.01.21.41.61.82.02.2
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
8
10
12
14
16
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
2.22.42.62.83.03.23.43.6
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
10
12
14
16
18
20
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
8
10
12
14
16
18
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Regional Market Focus
7 October 2013
11 of 15
Source: Bloomberg
World Index
JCI -0.66% 4,389.35
HSI -0.33% 23,138.54
KLCI 0.29% 1,776.56
NIKKEI -0.94% 14,024.31
KOSPI 0.18% 2,000.58
SET -0.10% 1,427.72
SHCOMP 0.68% 2,174.67
SENSEX 0.07% 19,915.95
ASX -0.51% 5,208.02
FTSE 100 0.08% 6,453.88
DOW 0.51% 15,072.58
S&P 500 0.71% 1,690.50
NASDAQ 0.89% 3,807.75 COLOMBO 0.40% 5,837.95
STI -0.21% 3,138.08
Regional Market Focus
7 October 2013
12 of 15
Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior
10/7/2013 Construction Spending MoM Aug 0.40% 0.60% 10/7/2013 Foreign Reserves Sep -- $261.87B
10/7/2013 Change in Private Payrolls Sep 182K 152K 10/8/2013 GDP SAAR QoQ 3Q A -2.20% 15.50%
10/7/2013 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 180K 169K 10/8/2013 GDP YoY 3Q A 4.40% 3.80%
10/7/2013 Factory Orders Aug 0.30% -2.40% 10/9/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 9-Oct -- 83751
10/7/2013 Unemployment Rate Sep 7.30% 7.30% 10/9/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B 9-Oct -- 86239
10/7/2013 Average Hourly Earnings MoM Sep 0.20% 0.20% 10/9/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E 9-Oct -- 87001
10/7/2013 Average Hourly Earnings YoY Sep 2.10% 2.20% 10/14/2013 Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY Aug -- 2.50%
10/7/2013 Change in Household Employment Sep -- -115 10/14/2013 Retail Sales YoY Aug -- -7.80%
10/7/2013 Underemployment Rate Sep -- 13.70% 10/14/2013 Retail Sales SA MoM Aug -- -5.30%
10/7/2013 Change in Manufact. Payrolls Sep 5K 14K 10/17/2013 Electronic Exports YoY Sep -- -9.20%
10/7/2013 Average Weekly Hours All Sep 34.5 34.5 10/17/2013 Non-oil Domestic Exports YoY Sep -- -6.20%
10/7/2013 Tw o-Month Payroll Net Revision Sep -- -- 10/17/2013 Non-oil Domestic Exports SA MoM Sep -- -6.00%
10/7/2013 Labor Force Participation Rate Sep -- -- 10/23/2013 CPI NSA MoM Sep -- 0.80%
10/8/2013 Consumer Credit Aug $12.000B $10.437B 10/23/2013 CPI YoY Sep -- 2.00%
10/8/2013 NFIB Small Business Optimism Sep -- 94 10/23/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 23-Oct -- --
Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior
10/11/2013 Foreign Reserves 4-Oct -- $172.5B 10/7/2013 Foreign Reserves Sep -- $303.9B
10/11/2013 Forw ard Contracts 4-Oct -- $20.9B 10/17/2013 Unemployment Rate SA Sep -- 3.30%
10/16/2013 BoT Benchmark Interest Rate 16-Oct -- 2.50% 10/18/2013 Composite Interest Rate Sep -- 0.32%
10/17/2013 Car Sales Sep -- 100289 10/21/2013 CPI Composite YoY Sep -- 4.50%
10/18/2013 Foreign Reserves 11-Oct -- -- 10/24/2013 Exports YoY Sep -- -1.30%
10/18/2013 Forw ard Contracts 11-Oct -- -- 10/24/2013 Imports YoY Sep -- -0.20%
10/24/2013 Customs Exports YoY Sep -- 3.90% 10/24/2013 Trade Balance Sep -- -39.6B
10/24/2013 Customs Imports YoY Sep -- -2.10% 10/31/2013 Budget Balance HKD Sep -- -16.9B
10/24/2013 Customs Trade Balance Sep -- -$95M 10/31/2013 Retail Sales Value YoY Sep -- 8.10%
10/25/2013 Foreign Reserves 18-Oct -- -- 10/31/2013 Retail Sales Volume YoY Sep -- 7.20%
10/25/2013 Forw ard Contracts 18-Oct -- -- 10/31/2013 Money Supply M1 HKD YoY Sep -- 14.70%
10/25/2013 Mfg Production Index ISIC NSA Sep -- -310.00% 10/31/2013 Money Supply M2 HKD YoY Sep -- 8.10%
10/25/2013 Mfg Production Index ISIC SA Sep -- 175.78 10/31/2013 Money Supply M3 HKD YoY Sep -- 8.10%
10/25/2013 Capacity Utilization ISIC Sep -- 6340.00% 11/5/2013 HSBC/Markit PMI Oct -- 5000.00%
10/31/2013 Exports YoY Sep -- 2.50% 11/7/2013 Foreign Reserves Oct -- --
Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Thailand Hong Kong
Source: Bloomberg
US Singapore
Economic Announcement
Regional Market Focus
7 October 2013
13 of 15
Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior
7-10 OCT Foreign Reserves Sep -- $93.0B 10/7/2013 Exports YoY Aug -- 8.00%
7-10 OCT Net Foreign Assets IDR Sep -- 978.6T 10/7/2013 Imports YoY Aug -- 20.80%
7-10 OCT Consumer Confidence Index Sep -- 107.8 10/15/2013 CBSL Repurchase Rate 15-Oct -- 7.00%
10/8/2013 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate 8-Oct 7.25% 7.25% 10/15/2013 CBSL Reverse Repo Rate 15-Oct -- 9.00%
10-21 OCT Local Auto Sales Sep -- 77961 10/31/2013 CPI Moving Average YoY Oct -- --
10-21 OCT Motorcycle Sales Sep -- 488983 10/31/2013 CPI YoY Oct -- --
11/1/2013 HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct -- 50.2 11/5/2013 Exports YoY Sep -- --
11/1/2013 CPI YoY Oct -- 8.40% 11/5/2013 Imports YoY Sep -- --
11/1/2013 CPI NSA MoM Oct -- -0.35% 11/12/2013 CBSL Repurchase Rate 12-Nov -- --
11/1/2013 CPI Core YoY Oct -- 4.72% 11/12/2013 CBSL Reverse Repo Rate 12-Nov -- --
11/1/2013 Exports YoY Sep -- -6.30% 11/29/2013 CPI Moving Average YoY Nov -- --
11/1/2013 Imports YoY Sep -- -5.70% 11/29/2013 CPI YoY Nov -- --
11/1/2013 Trade Balance Sep -- $132M 12/5/2013 Exports YoY Oct -- --
1-6 NOV Danareksa Consumer Confidence Oct -- 89.6 12/5/2013 Imports YoY Oct -- --
1-11 NOV Consumer Confidence Index Oct -- -- 12/10/2013 CBSL Repurchase Rate 10-Dec -- --
Date Statistic For Survey Prior
10/7/2013 AiG Perf of Construction Index Sep -- 4370.00%
10/7/2013 Foreign Reserves Sep -- A$55.7B
10/8/2013 NAB Business Conditions Sep -- -600.00%
10/8/2013 NAB Business Confidence Sep -- 600.00%
10/8/2013 ANZ Job Advertisements MoM Sep -- -2.00%
10/9/2013 Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM Oct -- 4.70%
10/9/2013 Westpac Consumer Conf Index Oct -- 11060.00%
10/10/2013 Consumer Inflation Expectation Oct -- 1.50%
10/10/2013 Employment Change Sep -- -10.8K
10/10/2013 Unemployment Rate Sep -- 5.80%
10/10/2013 Full Time Employment Change Sep -- -2.6K
10/10/2013 Part Time Employment Change Sep -- -8.2K
10/10/2013 Participation Rate Sep -- 65.00%
10/14/2013 Credit Card Balances Aug -- $A49.2B
10/14/2013 Credit Card Purchases Aug -- $A23.0B
Source: Bloomberg
Indonesia
Australia
Sri Lanka
Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg
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PHILLIP RESEARCH STOPHILLIP RESEARCH STOPHILLIP RESEARCH STOPHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMSCK SELECTION SYSTEMSCK SELECTION SYSTEMSCK SELECTION SYSTEMS
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
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Total ReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnTotal Return RecommendationRecommendationRecommendationRecommendation RatingRatingRatingRating RemarksRemarksRemarksRemarks >+20%>+20%>+20%>+20% BuyBuyBuyBuy 1111 >20% upside from the current price>20% upside from the current price>20% upside from the current price>20% upside from the current price
+5% to +20%+5% to +20%+5% to +20%+5% to +20% AccumulateAccumulateAccumulateAccumulate 2222 +5% to +20%upside from the curren+5% to +20%upside from the curren+5% to +20%upside from the curren+5% to +20%upside from the current pricet pricet pricet price ----5% to +5%5% to +5%5% to +5%5% to +5% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral 3333 Trade within ± 5% from the current priceTrade within ± 5% from the current priceTrade within ± 5% from the current priceTrade within ± 5% from the current price ----5% to 5% to 5% to 5% to ----20%20%20%20% ReduceReduceReduceReduce 4444 ----5% to 5% to 5% to 5% to ----20% downside from the current price20% downside from the current price20% downside from the current price20% downside from the current price
<<<<----20%20%20%20% SellSellSellSell 5555 >20%downside from the current price>20%downside from the current price>20%downside from the current price>20%downside from the current price
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