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denniswu
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denniswu
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MCI (P) 194/11/2012 Ref No: RM2013_0153 1 of 12
Regional Market Focus
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
13 August 2013
Hong Kong
China’s Auto Sector Strategy Report 2013H2 Closing price: N/A Target price: N/A In first half of 2013, driven by profit growth of mainland China real property business, China Overseas Land & Investment achieved
favorable overall performance. Meanwhile, the sales rose to HKD 32.2bn, up 27% yoy, where the mainland China real property sales accounted for 92% and Hong Kong and Macau real property for 5%. The operating profit rose to RMB13.2bn, up 7.8% yoy, where operating profit of the Mainland China real property was HKD10.1bn, accounting for 76.5% of the total and operating profit of Hong Kong and Macau real property HKD220 mn, accounting for 1.7% of the total. The total gross margin was 36.3% at a leading position in the industry. The profit attributable to the shareholders rose to HKD11.0bn, equivalent to RMB8.82bn, up 31.6%, yoy and core profit rose to HKD8.06bn, equivalent to RMB6.45bn, up 26.7% yoy.
As we expected, stocks of auto manufactures trended to be different in the auto manufacturing sector in H Shares, passenger vehicle enterprises were better than commercial vehicle enterprises obviously. GWM, BYD and GAC Group recorded far outperform. Geely, DFM and Brilliance Auto trended to market perform, and Weichai Power and Sinotruk underperformed.
Overall, we believe strong stocks like GMW and GAC Group were mainly benefited from the continued consumption boom of SUV in China’s auto market, and BYD was accepted by the market due to its “re-take off” strategy and the prospect of the room of electric vehicle market in future.
According to the valuation, the current 10-year average P/E is 31x, and we expect the average P/E will be 12x and 9.5x respectively in the next two years, much lower than the historical level.
We believe China’s auto industry does still not enter the real adjustment period, and currently maintains the pattern of “the stable growth of passenger vehicles and the mild recovery of commercial vehicles”. The industry competition trends to be fiercer but has not achieved to rebuild the market yet, some specific segments (such as SUV, New energy vehicle) still have the opportunity to increase explosively.
According to the investment strategy of auto sector, we suggest to make two trading strategies before the industry peak seasons in September and October: 1) The commercial vehicle companies with the high correlation of investment (Weichai Power, Sinotruk), we recommend to make band
trade according to the trend of macro economy especially the investment process of infrastructure. Pay particular attention to the beneficiaries from the coming upgrade of emission.
2) For the growing companies with certain growth of performance meeting the trend of the upgrade and development of consumption, such as GWM, Brilliance Auto, BYD, we suggest investors to hold such stocks continually, and focus on the companies’ core competitiveness and the development of the industry.
Strategy
SECTOR/STRATEGY REPORTS: - Sector Reports: Banking, 8 Jul / Telecommunications, 5 June / Commodities, 29 May / Offshore & Marine, 27 May - Country Strategy: China & HK 5 July / S’pore, 18 Jun / Thai, 17 Jun - Global Macro, Asset Strategy: 8 Jul, Update
Morning Commentary
STI: +0.66% to 3243.3 KLCI: +0.29% to 1777.9 JCI: +0.30% to 4624.3 SET: +1.01% to 1437.5 HSI: +0.94% to 22088.8 HSCEI: +0.68% to 9723.9 Nikkei: +2.47% to 14005.8 ASX200: +0.19% to 5061.5 Nifty: -0.25% to 5727.9 S&P500: +1.25% to 1706.9 MARKET OUTLOOK: In this week’s webinar, apart from giving the market outlook, we give an update on earnings, and call a Trading Buy on Iconix Brand Group – a US stock with growth potential and strong cash flows. The webinar can be viewed from our archive at www.uniphillip.com > Education Programs > Phillip Securities Research Webinar For our longer term outlook please see the latest Global Macro Asset Strategy report below. (PhillipCFDs and ETFs for trading the market outlook can be found in the webinar slides above or the Global Macro report below. PhillipUT Wrap Account offers tactical asset allocation of unit trusts without front loading sales charge.)
http://internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/EconomicPulse/SG/strategy20130705.pdf
http://internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/EconomicPulse/SG/strategy20130618.pdf
Regional Market Focus
13 August 2013
2 of 12
Singapore The benchmark STI closed higher at 3,232.24 (+0.07%). The 2.4bn shares
traded were worth S$1.3bn in value. We expect the STI to consolidate at current levels, with key near term support at
3,200 levels. Top picks for the year are Pan United (Buy, TP: S$1.21), SGX (Buy, TP: S$8.30)
& Keppel Corp (Accumulate, TP: S$12.25).
Close +/- % +/-FSSTI 3232.24 2.33 0.07P/E (x) 13.35P/Bv (x) 1.42
3.19Dividend Yield
STRAITS TIMES INDEX
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
8/13 11/13 2/13 5/13
Source: Bloomberg
Thailand Thai stocks fell last Fri despite easing concerns over controversial amnesty bill
but political tension was however expected to re-escalate during the third reading of the bill. Foreign sell-off also continued to weigh on sentiment.
Investors are likely to be looking for new trading cues after domestic political tensions eased at least in the near term. Key economic data out of major economies still bears close watching. In our view, the Thai stock market is expected to play catch-up with its regional peers, which traded in the green on Mon when the Thai bourse was closed for HM the Queen’s Birthday.
Interim dividend announcements, which will follow the final stretch of corporate earnings season, should continue to provide periodic boosts to market sentiment.
Increased foreign sell-offs in both equities and derivatives markets would put a cap on potential market upside. Today we expect a trading range of 1420-1450 points for the SET index.
The strategy is to be selective in stocks. Equity exposure should be maintained at 50% of the portfolio.
Resistance for the SET index is pegged at 1440-1460 and support at 1420-1410 today.
Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1432.25 -14.91 -1.03P/E (x) 15.92P/Bv (x) 2.26
3.03Dividend Yield
STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
8/14 11/14 2/14 5/14
Source: Bloomberg
Indonesia
Most Indonesian stocks declined Monday (12/08), as investors returned from one week Eid al-Fitr holiday, and amidst mixed closes in Asia. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell 43.001 points, or 0.93%, to end at 4,597.780. Seven out of the nine major industry groups ended in red, with miscellaneous industry sector lost 3.06%, consumer goods slipped 2.71%, and finance sector trimmed 1.41%. Most blue-chip shares also fell on Monday, with the LQ45 index that measures them lost 10.996 points, or 1.42%, at 763.948. From the economic front, data released by Bank Indonesia showed retail sales in Indonesia climbed 14.8% in June from a year earlier, as consumption usually increases ahead of the Ramadan holiday period. But retailers expect retail sales to ease in the next 3 months after the Muslim festive. 125 stocks rose, and 117 stocks fell Monday on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, where 2.6 billion shares worth IDR 4.3 trillion changed hands on the regular board. Foreign investors posted net sale of IDR 278.23 billion.
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) will likely to move sideways today, with negative bias, amid lack of catalysts in global and domestic markets. Also weighing on sentiments, the possibility of Bank Indonesia raising its benchmark rate will also put pressure on Indonesia’s market. We expect the JCI to move sideways, within price band of between 4,552 and 4,657.
Close +/- % +/-JCI Index 4597.78 -43.00 -0.93P/E (x) 18.52P/Bv (x) 2.81
2.10Dividend Yield
JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX
3400
3900
4400
4900
5400
8/13 11/13 2/13 5/13
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Market Focus
13 August 2013
3 of 12
Sri Lanka The trading week commenced with an adverse sentiment and the bourse
witnessed yet another inactive trading session directing the indices to re-enter in to the negative terrain. The market observed a downturn from the first hours itself, triggering the ASPI to fall to an intraday low of 6,120.05 (losing 32 points), however, the late market rally observed post to mid-day supported the index to minimize loses and to settle the day at 6,130.24 (down by 21.68 points or 0.35%). Following a similar pattern the S&P SL20 also closed within the negative territory at 3,451.45, losing 18.71 points or 0.54%. The total market capitalization stood at LKR 2.36Tn, reducing the year to date gain to 8.84%. The market PER and PBV were 16.22x and 2.18x respectively. The turnover for the day was recorded as LKR 372.81Mn, indicating a gain of 30.62% against the previous trading day. Under the sectorial round-up, Bank Finance & Insurance (BFI) sector topped the list providing LKR 107.64Mn, whilst accounting to nearly 30% of the day’s total turnover. Diversified Holdings (DIV) sector provided LKR 82.71Mn and stood next in line under the top subscriber list for the day. Additionally, the two sectors BFI and DIV collectively made account to almost half of the aggregated turnover for the day. During the day, a total of 18.96Mn shares changed hands resulting in an increase of 67.52% against the previous trading day. In terms of share price movement, 116 companies lost while 72 companies gained within the trading day. Foreign participants were bullish during the day for the 4
th consecutive, resulting in a net foreign inflow of LKR 68.67Mn
resulted by foreign buying of LKR 158.86Mn and selling of LKR 90.19Mn; this assisted the year to date net foreign inflow to reach LKR 16.41Bn. As at the day’s closure, the USD stood at LKR 133.20/- selling and LKR 130.00/- buying.
Close +/- % +/-CSEALL Index 6130.24 -21.68 -0.35P/E (x) 12.31P/Bv (x) 1.68
2.57
Dividend Yield
SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
8/13 11/13 2/13 5/13
Source: Bloomberg
Australia The Australian share market on Monday rose by more than one per cent as
renewed optimism about China's economy prompted investors to pile into resources stocks. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was up 53.5 points, or 1.06 per cent, at 5,108.7 points.
Today (13/08/13), the Australian market looks set to open higher after a mixed result on Wall Street and European markets amid heightening concerns of yet another Greek bailout.
In economic news on Tuesday, the Treasury and the Finance departments are expected to release the pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO), while the National Australia Bank's monthly business survey for July is also due out.
In equities news, Stockland, Bradken and Domino's Pizza are expected to post full year results.
Close +/- % +/-S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 5108.65 53.44 1.06P/E (x) 23.74P/Bv (x) 2.01
5.71
STANDARD & POORS/ ASX 200 INDEX
Dividend Yield
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
8/13 11/13 2/13 5/13
Source: Bloomberg
Hong Kong
HSI and CEI dropped 298 points or 1.34% to 21,923 and 75 points or 0.78% to 9,650 respectively. Trading volume rebounded little bit to HKD49.015 billion.
HSI gained 463 points or 2.13% to 22,271. CEI surged 328 points or 3.42% to 9,928. Trading volume rebounded to HKD64.746 billion
Due to optimism China economy is stabilizing after 2-quarter slowdown, Shanghai Composite Index gained 2.4% to 2,101 and led HK market up. Resources stocks showed bottom out trend. Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK), Jiangxi Copper (358.HK), CNBM (3323.HK) surged 9.9%, 7% and 6.2% respectively
New loan in July beat expectation and optimism on market liquidity, China financial sector performed well, Minsheng Bank (1988.HK), Ping An (2318.HK) and China Life (2628.HK) gained 7.4%, 7.3% and 4% respectively.
Technically, HSI climbed above 10-MA, 100-MA and 250-MA with relatively high trading volume, sending a positive signal. The next resistance and support will be at 22,500 and 22,000 respectively.
Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 22271.28 463.72 2.13P/E (x) 10.34P/Bv (x) 1.42
3.38Dividend Yield
HANG SENG INDEX
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
22000
23000
24000
25000
8/13 11/13 2/13 5/13
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Market Focus
13 August 2013
4 of 12
Market News
US The United States ran a budget deficit in July, although government revenues increased from a year earlier due to tax hikes and a
strengthening economy, a report from the Treasury showed on Monday. The US government spent US$98 billion more than it took in last month, with the deficit driven by spending on healthcare programs, pensions for the elderly and the military. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected deficit of US$96 billion. The United States customarily runs deficits in July as there are few tax deadlines during the month. (Source: Business Times)
Singapore Singaporean households are overall in good financial shape and even those who may have over-stretched themselves are unlikely to
default on their loans even when interest rates rise. Mr Lawrence Wong, a director on the board of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, reiterated in Parliament on Monday that only 5 to 10 per cent of property loan borrowers here are servicing debts amounting to over 60 per cent of their monthly incomes. Housing loans constitute the bulk of their debt, he said. "But it doesn't mean they will automatically default on their loans. Most of these borrowers have above-average income levels. The majority took up private housing loans and are only servicing one housing loan, so they are likely to have a larger absolute buffer in income and assets.” The debt-to-income ratio of 2.1 times last year was still "significantly lower" than the 2.6 times seen in the middle of the last decade, he added, which means that Singaporean households "are not more leveraged than they have been in the last decade". (Source: Business Times)
Thailand The Bank of Thailand said business costs have followed labor and raw materials costs upwards in third quarter of 2013, prompting
business operators to mull plans to raise product prices with several businesses currently in negotiations to raise prices with trading partners. (Source: Daily News)
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) says it will continue with market-cap-based listing regulations, despite the debut flops
of the first two firms to which the rules applied. The SEC will not review the regulations, as financial advisers have performed well in their duties, but investors must do more homework in making investment decisions. Ananda was the only newly listed firm last year that failed to stay above its IPO price on the first day of trade, with a 9.5% discount from the IPO price of 4.20 baht each. Pace also suffered the same fate as it began listing on the SET last Wednesday at nearly 23% below the 3.50-baht IPO mark. Under regulations effective since last Nov, the SEC allows any firm with a market capitalization of greater than Bt5bn baht to list on the main local bourse, regardless of the bottom line. (Source: Bangkok Post)
Indonesia The Rupiah is estimated to continue depreciating after the Idul Fitri holiday. Assets in emerging markets are now under pressure,
including the rupiah. Amid the global economic slowdown, rising inflation is considered as something that will increase the risk of investment. Indonesia's dismal economic outlook for the third quarter of this year is making market players more anxious in observing the inflation. The government's decision to issue strict measures in both monetary and fiscal policies almost simultaneously (double tightening) has begun to show a negative impact. The reason is because the policy to raise interest rates and fuel prices was done during a time when economic performances are declining. (Source: Tempo)
Concerns over high inflation are expected to subside as the season enters the second harvest for food commodities such as rice and
onions. The Statistics Indonesia (BPS) estimates that inflation in August 2013 will be only in the range of one per cent, much lower than the July inflation that reached 3.29 per cent. The director of Statistics and Distribution of Statistics Indonesia said that based on the annual trend, food prices after Eid always decreases by 50 per cent, this is because demand has decreased significantly. In August, the food prices are still likely to be high in the first week because it was still fasting month and Eid preparation, but the prices tend to be not increase more. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka is planning to expand spice cultivation to new areas which will increase production and export especially of pepper and
cinnamon. Cinnamon and pepper is to be piloted in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa in north central Sri Lanka and Amapara and Batticaloa in the east. Under a new sector development plan the contribution of spices to the economy was expected to be boosted to 5.0 percent by 2020 from 0.4 percent now. Large plantations of only the selected best species were then established on a coastal stretch from Chilaw to Matara. Sri Lanka now exports a range of spices including cinnamon, pepper, cloves, nutmeg and cardamoms. (Source: lankabusinessonline.com)
Regional Market Focus
13 August 2013
5 of 12
Australia Record low interest rates are overheating key inner-city property markets, prompting experts to warn of dangerous boom-time conditions
as lenders fight for a greater slice of the mortgage market. McGrath Real Estate founder John McGrath yesterday said the pace of recovery in some property markets, particularly inner-city Sydney, was a concern and could lead to trouble. While noting some markets, including areas of Queensland, remained well below peaks, he said Sydney was "red hot" and the sweet spot was homes up to $1.5 million within 10km of capital cities. "I haven't seen it this hot since the last real estate boom and I'm not calling this a real estate boom, but I think if the pressure kept going at this level . . . we're heading for trouble," he said. "A bit of a growth spurt is a natural and welcome and healthy thing, it is bringing confidence in, but one would hope and expect that will settle into a more sustainable 5 to 8 per cent growth over a longer period." (Source: The Australian)
As the Reserve Bank cuts rates to record levels and demand from investors soars, the major banks have started brawling for a slice of
the $1.3 trillion mortgage market, ahead of a likely bumper spring sales frenzy. (Source: The Australian)
Hong Kong Hong Kong investors are turning run-down factories and warehouses into offices to fill a space shortage in the city with the world’s
second-highest rents. Pamfleet Group and Gaw Capital Partners are among real estate funds that bought more than HK$54 billion ($7 billion) of the city’s industrial properties in the year ended June 30, according to data compiled by Centaline Property Agency Ltd. That’s the highest for any 12-month period on record, the Hong Kong-based realtor’s data shows. Redevelopment of vacant industrial spaces has accelerated since 2009 as investors lured by surging office rents seek to exploit the gap between the cost of acquiring the buildings and the potential return from converting them for use by banks, insurers and other business tenants. The government has implemented policy changes since the 1980s to encourage the transformation of unused properties after manufacturing shifted to cheaper locations in mainland China and Southeast Asia. “It’s been a slow start, but things have picked up over the past few years,” said Simon Lo, Hong Kong-based head of Asia research at property broker Colliers International. “Buyers are coming in with the expectation their returns will go up multiple times because of the redevelopment potential.” Demand for offices in Hong Kong has been swelling as the city cemented its place as a regional financial hub over the past decade. Average prime office rents have risen 54 percent to June from mid-2009, according to government figures. Average vacancy rates fell to 6.1 percent at the end of 2012 from 11.5 percent in 2009. Prime refers to the most stable high-income producing properties. (Source: Bloomberg)
Regional Market Focus
13 August 2013
6 of 12
81.50 +0.20% 288.24 +1.00%
107.49 +0.61% 2.627 +0.01%
1,338.31 -0.40% 15,419.68 -0.04%
517.63 +0.91% MSCI SEA 858.86 -0.25%
2,827.15 +0.05% 54.1
Source: Bloomberg
MSCI Asia x-Japan
JPM Global Composite PMI SA
ThomReuters/JefferiesCRB
DJI
Crude oil, Brent (US$/bbl) US Treasury 10yr Yield
Euro Stoxx 50
Dollar Index
Gold (US$/Oz)
1.201.401.601.802.002.202.402.602.803.00
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan
-13
Feb-1
3
Mar-1
3
Ap
r-13
May-1
3
Jun
-13
Jul-1
3
Au
g-1
3
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan
-13
Feb-1
3
Mar-1
3
Ap
r-13
May-1
3
Jun
-13
Jul-1
3
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
Au
g-
12
Se
p-
12
Oct-1
2
Nov-
12
Dec-
12
Jan
-13
Feb-
13
Mar-
13
Ap
r-13
May-
13
Jun
-13
Jul-1
3
2,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,5002,6002,7002,800
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan
-13
Feb-1
3
Mar-1
3
Ap
r-13
May-1
3
Jun
-13
Jul-1
3
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan
-13
Feb-1
3
Mar-1
3
Ap
r-13
May-1
3
Jun
-13
Jul-1
3
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan
-13
Feb-1
3
Mar-1
3
Ap
r-13
May-1
3
Jun
-13
Jul-1
3
Au
g-1
3
78
80
82
84
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-1
2
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-1
3
Ap
r-13
May-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Au
g-1
3
260
280
300
320
340
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-1
2
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-1
3
Ap
r-13
May-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
90
100
110
120
130
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-13
Apr-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan
-13
Feb-1
3
Mar-1
3
Ap
r-13
May-1
3
Jun
-13
Jul-1
3
Regional Market Focus
13 August 2013
7 of 12
Valuations of Major Regional Markets
14.9 1.42
13.6 2.26
10.6 1.42
15.2 2.81
14.7 2.01
Source: Bloomberg
Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index, P/B (X)
Straits Times Index, Forward P/E (X)
Hang Seng Index, Forward P/E (X)
Straits Times Index, P/B (X)
Stock Exchange of Thailand, Forward P/E (X) Stock Exchange of Thailand, P/B (X)
Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index,
Hang Seng Index, P/B (X)
S&P/ASX 200 Index, Forward P/E (X) S&P/ASX 200 Index, P/B (X)
10
12
14
16
18
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
8
10
12
14
16
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
1.01.21.41.61.82.02.2
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
8
10
12
14
16
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
2.22.42.62.83.03.23.43.6
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
10
12
14
16
18
20
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
8
10
12
14
16
18
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Regional Market Focus
13 August 2013
8 of 12
Source: Bloomberg
World Index
JCI -0.93% 4,597.78
HSI 2.13% 22,271.28
KLCI 0.30% 1,784.57
NIKKEI -0.70% 13,519.43
KOSPI 0.38% 1,891.91
SET -1.03% 1,432.25
SHCOMP 2.39% 2,101.28
SENSEX 0.84% 18,946.98
ASX 1.06% 5,108.65
FTSE 100 -0.14% 6,574.34
DOW -0.04% 15,419.68
S&P 500 -0.12% 1,689.47
NASDAQ 0.27% 3,669.95 COLOMBO -0.35% 6,130.24
STI 0.07% 3,232.24
Regional Market Focus
13 August 2013
9 of 12
Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior
8/13/2013 Monthly Budget Statement Jul -$94.5B -$69.6B 8/12/2013 GDP SAAR QoQ 2Q F 0.142 0.152
8/13/2013 NFIB Small Business Optimism Jul 94.5 93.5 8/12/2013 GDP YoY 2Q F 0.035 0.037
8/13/2013 Import Price Index MoM Jul 0.008 -0.002 8/15/2013 Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY Jun -- 0.031
8/13/2013 Import Price Index YoY Jul 0.015 0.002 8/15/2013 Retail Sales YoY Jun -- 0.032
8/13/2013 Retail Sales Advance MoM Jul 0.003 0.004 8/15/2013 Retail Sales SA MoM Jun -- 0.021
8/13/2013 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Jul 0.004 0 8/16/2013 Electronic Exports YoY Jul -- -0.124
8/13/2013 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Jul 0.004 -0.001 8/16/2013 Non-oil Domestic Exports YoY Jul -- -0.088
8/13/2013 Retail Sales Control Group Jul 0.004 0.001 8/16/2013 Non-oil Domestic Exports SA MoM Jul -- 0.032
8/13/2013 Business Inventories Jun 0.002 0.001 8/21/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 21-Aug -- 75556
8/14/2013 MBA Mortgage Applications 41495 -- 0.002 8/21/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B 21-Aug -- 77600
8/14/2013 PPI MoM Jul 0.003 0.008 8/21/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E 21-Aug -- 77989
8/14/2013 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Jul 0.002 0.002 8/23/2013 CPI NSA MoM Jul -- 0.002
8/14/2013 PPI YoY Jul 0.024 0.025 8/23/2013 CPI YoY Jul -- 0.018
8/14/2013 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Jul 0.013 0.017 8/26/2013 Industrial Production MoM Jul -- -0.031
8/14/2013
New York Fed Releases Household
Debt, Credit Report 8/26/2013 Industrial Production YoY Jul -- -0.059
Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior
8/16/2013 Foreign Reserves 9-Aug -- $171.3B 8/16/2013 GDP SA QoQ 2Q -- 0.002
8/16/2013 Forward Contracts 9-Aug -- $23.5B 8/16/2013 GDP YoY 2Q 0.032 0.028
16-12 AUG Car Sales Jul -- 106018 8/19/2013 Unemployment Rate SA Jul -- 0.033
8/19/2013 GDP SA QoQ 2Q -- -0.022 8/19/2013 Composite Interest Rate Jul -- 0.0032
8/19/2013 GDP YoY 2Q -- 0.053 8/20/2013 CPI Composite YoY Jul -- 0.041
8/21/2013 BoT Benchmark Interest Rate 41507 -- 2.50% 8/27/2013 Exports YoY Jul -- -0.002
8/23/2013 Foreign Reserves 41502 -- -- 8/27/2013 Imports YoY Jul -- 0.014
8/23/2013 Forward Contracts 16-Aug -- -- 8/27/2013 Trade Balance Jul -- -49.7B
24-28 AUG Customs Exports YoY Jul -- -0.0338 8/30/2013 Budget Balance HKD Jul -- -16.7B
24-28 AUG Customs Imports YoY Jul -- 0.0301 8/30/2013 Money Supply M1 HKD YoY Jul -- 0.181
24-28 AUG Customs Trade Balance Jul -- -$1915M 8/30/2013 Money Supply M2 HKD YoY Jul -- 0.096
8/28/2013 Mfg Production Index ISIC NSA YoY Jul -- -350.00% 8/30/2013 Money Supply M3 HKD YoY Jul -- 0.097
8/28/2013 Mfg Production Index ISIC SA Jul -- 175.7 9/2/2013 Retail Sales Value YoY Jul -- 0.147
8/28/2013 Capacity Utilization ISIC Jul -- 64.1 9/2/2013 Retail Sales Volume YoY Jul -- 0.134
8/30/2013
Bloomberg Aug. Thailand Economic
Survey 9/4/2013 HSBC/Markit PMI Aug -- 49.7
US Singapore
Economic Announcement
Thailand Hong Kong
Source: Bloomberg
Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Market Focus
13 August 2013
10 of 12
Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior
12-20 AUG Local Auto Sales Jul -- 104265 12-28 AUG Exports YoY Jun -- -1.50%
12-20 AUG Motorcycle Sales Jul -- 659504 12-28 AUG Imports YoY Jun -- -1.70%
12-16 AUG Foreign Reserves Jul -- $98.10B 8/16/2013 CBSL Repurchase Rate 16-Aug 0.07 7.00%
12-16 AUG Net Foreign Assets IDR Jul -- 940.33T 8/16/2013 CBSL Reverse Repo Rate 16-Aug 0.09 9.00%
12-16 AUG Consumer Confidence Index Jul -- 11710.00% 8/30/2013 CPI Moving Average YoY Aug -- 8.30%
12-16 AUG Money Supply M1 YoY Jun -- 9.80% 8/30/2013 CPI YoY Aug -- 6.10%
12-16 AUG Money Supply M2 YoY Jun -- 0.144 05-28 SEP Exports YoY Jul -- --
8/15/2013 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate 41501 -- 0.065 05-28 SEP Imports YoY Jul -- --
8/16/2013 BoP Current Account Balance 2Q -- -5270M 16-30 SEP GDP YoY 2Q -- 6.00%
8/30/2013
Bloomberg Aug. Indonesia Economic
Survey 9/17/2013 CBSL Repurchase Rate 17-Sep -- --
9/2/2013 HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI Aug -- 5070.00% 9/17/2013 CBSL Reverse Repo Rate 17-Sep -- --
9/2/2013 CPI YoY Aug -- 0.0861 9/30/2013 CPI Moving Average YoY Sep -- --
9/2/2013 CPI NSA MoM Aug -- 0.0329 9/30/2013 CPI YoY Sep -- --
9/2/2013 CPI Core YoY Aug -- 0.0444 07-28 OCT Exports YoY Aug -- --
9/2/2013 Exports YoY Jul -- -0.045 07-28 OCT Imports YoY Aug -- --
Date Statistic For Survey Prior8/12/2013 Credit Card Balances Jun -- $A49.6B
8/12/2013 Credit Card Purchases Jun -- $A22.6B
8/13/2013 NAB Business Conditions Jul -- -800.00%
8/13/2013 NAB Business Confidence Jul -- 0.00%
8/13/2013
Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal
Outlook, Australia
8/14/2013
Bloomberg Aug. Australia Economic
Survey
8/14/2013 Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM Aug -- -0.001
8/14/2013 Westpac Consumer Conf Index Aug -- 102.1
8/14/2013 Wage Cost Index QoQ 2Q 0.007 0.0078/14/2013 Wage Cost Index YoY 2Q 0.03 0.032
8/15/2013 Consumer Inflation Expectation Aug -- 2.60%
8/15/2013 Average Weekly Wages QoQ May -- --
8/15/2013 Average Weekly Wages YoY May -- --
8/15/2013 RBA FX Transactions Market Jul -- 993M
8/15/2013 RBA FX Transactions Government Jul -- -977M
Source: Bloomberg
Indonesia
Australia
Sri Lanka
Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg
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PHILLIP RESEARCH STOPHILLIP RESEARCH STOPHILLIP RESEARCH STOPHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMSCK SELECTION SYSTEMSCK SELECTION SYSTEMSCK SELECTION SYSTEMS
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Total ReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnTotal Return RecommendationRecommendationRecommendationRecommendation RatingRatingRatingRating RemarksRemarksRemarksRemarks >+20%>+20%>+20%>+20% BuyBuyBuyBuy 1111 >20% upside from the current price>20% upside from the current price>20% upside from the current price>20% upside from the current price
+5% to +20%+5% to +20%+5% to +20%+5% to +20% AccumulateAccumulateAccumulateAccumulate 2222 +5% to +20%upside from the curren+5% to +20%upside from the curren+5% to +20%upside from the curren+5% to +20%upside from the current pricet pricet pricet price ----5% to +5%5% to +5%5% to +5%5% to +5% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral 3333 Trade within ± 5% from the current priceTrade within ± 5% from the current priceTrade within ± 5% from the current priceTrade within ± 5% from the current price ----5% to 5% to 5% to 5% to ----20%20%20%20% ReduceReduceReduceReduce 4444 ----5% to 5% to 5% to 5% to ----20% downside from the current price20% downside from the current price20% downside from the current price20% downside from the current price
<<<<----20%20%20%20% SellSellSellSell 5555 >20%downside from the current price>20%downside from the current price>20%downside from the current price>20%downside from the current price
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SINGAPORE
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